Swing (politics)

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An electoral swing analysis (or swing) shows the extent of change in voter support, typically from one election to another, expressed as a positive or negative percentage. A multi-party swing is an indicator of a change in the electorate's preference between candidates or parties, often between major parties in a two-party system. A swing can be calculated for the electorate as a whole, for a given electoral district or for a particular demographic.

A swing is particularly useful for analysing change in voter support over time, or as a tool for predicting the outcome of elections in

constituency-based systems. Swing is also usefully deployed when analysing the shift in voter intentions revealed by (political) opinion polls or to compare polls concisely which may rely on differing samples and on markedly different swings and therefore predict extraneous results.[1]

Calculation

The swing is calculated by comparing the percentage of the vote in a particular election to the percentage of the vote belonging to the same party or candidate at the previous election.

One-party swing

One-party swing (in percentage points) = Percentage of vote in current election − percentage of vote in previous election

For example, if a party had 41% of the vote in the previous election, and has 51% of the vote in the current election, the swing is 10 percentage points in their favour. This could be reported as +10 points.

Two-party swing

In many nation states' media, including in

seats are held with different previous levels of support. An assumption underlies extrapolated national calculations: that all districts will experience the same swing as shown in a poll or in a place's results. The advantage of this swing is the fact that the loss of support for one party will in most cases be accompanied by smaller or bigger gain in support for the other, but both figures are averaged into one. Employing the two assumptions allows the analyst to compute an electoral pendulum, predicting how many (and which) seats will change hands given a particular swing, and what size uniform swing would therefore bring about a change of government.[2][3]

Two-party swing is calculated by taking the difference between the one-party swings of each party, then dividing by two.[4][5][6]

Australia

Main article: Swing (Australian politics)

In Australia, the term "swing" refers to the change in the performance of a political party or candidate in an election or opinion poll. As Australia uses the preferential voting system, swing can be expressed in terms of the primary vote (first preference vote), or in terms of the two-party-preferred or two-candidate-preferred result, which may represent significantly different values due to preference flows; i.e. a 5% primary vote swing does not necessarily represent an equivalent swing in TPP or TCP terms.

United Kingdom

Main article: Swing (United Kingdom)

In the UK, a two-party swing (averaged model) is generally used, which adds one party's increase in share of the vote (expressed as a percentage point) to the percentage-point fall of another party, and divides the total by two.

Thus, if Party One's vote rises by 4 points and Party Two's vote falls 5 points, the swing is 4.5 points (Party 2 to Party 1).[7] For disambiguation, suffixes such as: (Con to Lab) (Lab to Lib Dem) (Lib Dem to Con) must be added where three parties stand. Otherwise, a problem when deciding which swing is meant and which swing is best to publish arises where a lower party takes first or second, or where a party loses one of the top two places.[n 1]

Originating as a mathematical calculation for comparing the results of two constituencies,[n 2] any of these figures can be used as an indication of the scale of voter change between any two political parties, as shown below for the 2010 United Kingdom general election:

  • Labour to Conservative swing
    Labour to Conservative swing
  • Liberal Democrat to Conservative swing
    Liberal Democrat to Conservative swing
  • Labour to Liberal Democrat swing
    Labour to Liberal Democrat swing

United States

Main article: Swing state

Swing in the

voting system in use.[n 3]

Three party swing or greater

Some websites provide a

exit polls
frequently include a question as to voting behavior in the last applicable election. Based on those exit polls "voter migration" (where vote gains for a specific party came from and losses of another went to) analyses are published and discussed in election coverage.

See also

Notes and references

Notes
  1. ^ E.g. a Liberal Democrat drops from first to third place and a Conservative Party former runner-up wins to a Labour Party runner-up who was in third place, here three interesting swings are relevant: Lib Dem-Con, Lib Dem-Lab and Lab-Con (and their opposite sign (+/-) equivalents for the opposite way swings).
  2. voting system
    and where a new third party or independent candidate has a better or worse result (or stands or chooses not to) this calculation allows for a more understandable comparison between the parties which are of wider interest.
  3. first-past-the-post
    voting system as its main voting system.
References
  1. ^ Electoral Calculus 2010 Election: UK Polls Comparison
  2. ^ Electoral Calculus website
  3. ^ "BBC Swingometer". Archived from the original on 12 June 2017. Retrieved 25 December 2019.
  4. ^ UK Polling Report Swingometer Map[dead link]
  5. ^ "Election 2017 guide: What is swing, how is it calculated and why is it important?". The Independent.
  6. ^ https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN02608/SN02608.pdf
  7. ^ BBC Explanation of Two Way Swing
  8. ^ "Election map and swingometer". The Guardian. 5 April 2010. Archived from the original on 22 May 2023.
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