There are unknown unknowns
"There are unknown unknowns" is a phrase from a response
Reports that say that something hasn't happened are always interesting to me, because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns—the ones we don't know we don't know. And if one looks throughout the history of our country and other free countries, it is the latter category that tends to be the difficult ones.[1]
The statement became the subject of much commentary. In The Decision Book, author Mikael Krogerus refers to it as the "Rumsfeld matrix".[2] The statement also features in a 2013 documentary film, The Unknown Known, directed by Errol Morris.[3]
Known unknowns refers to "risks you are aware of, such as canceled flights",[4] whereas unknown unknowns are risks that come from situations that are so unexpected that they would not be considered.
Origins
Rumsfeld's statement brought attention to the concepts of known knowns, known unknowns, and unknown unknowns, but national security and intelligence professionals have long used an analysis technique referred to as the Johari window. The idea of unknown unknowns was created in 1955 by two American psychologists, Joseph Luft and Harrington Ingham in their development of the Johari window. They used it as a technique to help people better understand their relationship with themselves as well as others.
The term was also commonly used inside
The terms "known unknowns" and "unknown unknowns" are often used in project management and strategic planning[8] circles.
Contemporary usage is largely consistent with the earliest known usages. For example, the term was used in evidence given to the British Columbia Royal Commission of Inquiry into Uranium Mining in 1979:
Site conditions always pose unknowns, or uncertainties, which may become known during construction or operation to the detriment of the facility and possibly lead to damage of the environment or endanger public health and safety. The risk posed by unknowns is somewhat dependent on the nature of the unknown relative to past experience. This has led me to classify unknowns into one of the following two types: 1. known unknowns (expected or foreseeable conditions), which can be reasonably anticipated but not quantified based on past experience as exemplified by case histories (in Appendix A) and 2. Unknown unknowns (unexpected or unforeseeable conditions), which pose a potentially greater risk simply because they cannot be anticipated based on past experience or investigation. Known unknowns result from recognized but poorly understood phenomena. On the other hand, unknown unknowns are phenomena which cannot be expected because there has been no prior experience or theoretical basis for expecting the phenomena.[9]
The term also appeared in a 1982
Reaction
Canadian columnist Mark Steyn called it "in fact a brilliant distillation of quite a complex matter".[11] Australian economist and blogger John Quiggin wrote: "Although the language may be tortured, the basic point is both valid and important."[12]
Psychoanalytic philosopher Slavoj Žižek says that beyond these three categories there is a fourth, the unknown known, that which one intentionally refuses to acknowledge that one knows: "If Rumsfeld thinks that the main dangers in the confrontation with Iraq were the 'unknown unknowns', that is, the threats from Saddam whose nature we cannot even suspect, then the Abu Ghraib scandal shows that the main dangers lie in the "unknown knowns"—the disavowed beliefs, suppositions and obscene practices we pretend not to know about, even though they form the background of our public values."[13]
German sociologists Christopher Daase and Oliver Kessler agreed that the
The event has been used in multiple books to discuss risk assessment.[3][15]
Rumsfeld named his 2011 autobiography Known and Unknown: A Memoir. In the author's note at the start of the book, he expressly acknowledges the source of his memoir's title and mentions a few examples of his statement's prominence.[16] The Unknown Known is the title of Errol Morris's 2013 biographical documentary film about Rumsfeld.[17] In it, Rumsfeld initially defines "unknown knowns" as "the things you think you know, that it turns out you did not", and toward the end of the film he defines the term as "things that you know, that you don't know you know".[18]
Rumsfeld's comment earned the 2003 Foot in Mouth Award from the British Plain English Campaign.
Analytical sciences
The term "known unknowns" has been applied to the identification of chemical substances using analytical chemistry approaches, specifically mass spectrometry. In many cases, an unknown to an investigator that is detected in an experiment is actually known in the chemical literature, a reference database, or an Internet resource. These types of compounds are termed "known unknowns". The term was originally coined by Little et al.[19] and reported a number of times in the literature since then as a general approach.[20][21][22][23]
See also
- Black swan theory
- Cynefin framework
- Dunning–Kruger effect
- Emic and etic
- Epistemic modal logic
- Four stages of competence
- I know that I know nothing
- Ignoramus et ignorabimus
- Ignotum per ignotius
- Johari window
- Knightian uncertainty
- Known and Unknown: A Memoir
- Outside Context Problem
- Russell's teapot
- Undecidable problem
- The Unknown Known
- Wild card (foresight)
References
- ^ a b "Defense.gov News Transcript: DoD News Briefing – Secretary Rumsfeld and Gen. Myers". United States Department of Defense. February 12, 2002. Archived from the original on April 6, 2016.
- OCLC 738350045.
- ^ ISBN 9781606490198. Retrieved February 10, 2014.
- ^ Biafore, Bonnie (December 14, 2011). "Project Management Fundamentals". Lynda.com. Lynda.com/LinkedIN. Retrieved October 17, 2015.
- ^ "NASA Program Management and Procurement Procedures and Practices: Hearings Before the Subcommittee on Space Science and Applications of the Committee on Science and Technology, U.S. House of Representatives, Ninety-seventh Congress, First Session, June 24, 25, 1981". 1981.
- ISBN 9781101502495.
- ^ "Big Data, Small World: Kirk Borne at TEDxGeorgeMasonU". YouTube. Archived from the original on December 22, 2021. Retrieved September 14, 2015.
- PMID 10174798.
- ISBN 978-0-7718-8198-5. 0005037606.
- ^ Newhouse, J. (June 14, 1982), "A reporter at large: a sporty game; 1-betting the company", New Yorker, pp. 48–105.
- ^ Steyn, Mark (December 9, 2003). "Rummy speaks the truth, not gobbledygook". Daily Telegraph. Retrieved October 30, 2008.
- ^ Quiggin, John (February 10, 2004). "In Defense of Rumsfeld". johnquiggin.com. Retrieved January 5, 2024.
- ^ Žižek, Slavoj (May 21, 2004). "What Rumsfeld Doesn't Know That He Knows About Abu Ghraib". In These Times. Retrieved February 23, 2009 – via lacan.com.
- S2CID 145253344.
- ISBN 9781848550582. Retrieved February 10, 2014.
- ISBN 9781101502495.
- ^ Scott (2014). "Not Giving an Inch in a Battle of Wits and Words; Deciphering Donald H. Rumsfeld in 'The Unknown Known'". The New York Times. Retrieved April 4, 2014.
- ^ Morris, Errol (Director) (December 13, 2013). The Unknown Known (Motion picture). Los Angeles, CA: The Weinstein Company.
- PMID 21472594.
- PMID 22069037.
- PMID 22803687.
- S2CID 31754962.
- PMID 28475325.
External links
- "Defense Department Briefing". C-SPAN. February 12, 2002.
Reporter:37:19 ...Because there are reports that there is no evidence of a direct link between Baghdad and some of these terrorist organizations.
Rumsfeld: Reports that say that something hasn't happened are always interesting to me... - Logan, David C. (March 1, 2009). "Known knowns, known unknowns, unknown unknowns and the propagation of scientific enquiry". Journal of Experimental Botany. 60 (3): 712–4. PMID 19269994.
