Two-party-preferred vote
In
The TPP assumes a two-party system, i.e. that after distribution of votes from less successful candidates, the two remaining candidates will be from the two major parties. However, in some electorates this is not the case. The two-candidate-preferred vote (TCP) is the result after preferences have been distributed, using instant-runoff voting, to the final two candidates, regardless of which party the candidates represent. For electorates where the two candidates are from the major parties, the TCP is also the TPP. For electorates where these two candidates are not both from the major parties, preferences are notionally distributed to the two major parties to determine the TPP. In this case the TPP differs from the TCP, and is not informative. TPP results above seat-level, such as a national or statewide TPP, are also informative only and have no direct effect on the election outcome.
The full allocation of preferences under instant-runoff voting is used in the lower houses of the Federal, Queensland, Victorian, Western Australian, South Australian, and Northern Territory parliaments, as well as the upper house of Tasmania. The New South Wales lower house uses optional-preference instant runoff voting – with some votes giving limited or no preferences, TPP/TCP is not as meaningful. TPP/TCP does not occur in the Tasmanian lower house or the Australian Capital Territory due to a different system altogether, the Hare–Clark single transferable vote system. Aside from Tasmania, TPP/TCP is not used in any other upper houses in Australia, with most using the proportional single transferable vote system.[1]
History
Australia originally used first-past-the-post voting as used by the House of Commons of the United Kingdom. Federal election full-preference instant-runoff voting was introduced after the 1918 Swan by-election, and has been in use ever since. In that by-election, candidates from the Australian Labor Party, the Nationalist Party government (predecessor to the United Australia Party and Liberal Party of Australia), and the emerging National Party of Australia (then Country Party) all received around a third of the vote, however, as Labor had a plurality of three percent, it won the seat. The new system allowed the two non-Labor parties to compete against one another in many seats without risking losing the seat altogether.
The Coalition now includes four parties: the Liberal Party of Australia except Queensland and the Northern Territory, the National Party of Australia in New South Wales and Victoria, the Liberal National Party of Queensland, and the Country Liberal Party in the Northern Territory. It is increasingly uncommon for seats to be contested by more than one Coalition candidate. For example, in the 2010 federal election, only three seats were contested by more than one Coalition candidate. With the popularity of parties such as the Greens and One Nation, preference flows are very significant for all parties in Australia.
Not distributing preferences was historically common in seats where a candidate received over 50 percent of the primary vote. Federal seat and national TPP results have only been produced as far back as 1937, though it was not uncommon in the next few decades for major parties at federal elections to not field a candidate in a few "safe" seats, but since 1972, all seats at federal elections have been contested by the major parties. Full preference distributions have occurred in all seats since 1983.[2]
Until recently,
Procedure
Under the full-preference instant-runoff voting system, in each seat, the candidate with the lowest vote is eliminated and their preferences are distributed; this process repeats until only two candidates remain. Whilst every seat has a TCP result, seats where the major parties have come first and second are commonly referred to as having a TPP result. In a TCP contest between Labor and the NSW/Vic Nationals and without a Liberal candidate, this is also considered a TPP, with the Nationals in these states considered a de facto major party within the Liberal/National Coalition. In seats where the major parties do not come first and second, differing TPP and TCP results are returned. When only one of two major parties contest a seat, such as at some by-elections, only a TCP result is produced. Swings in Australian parliaments are more commonly associated with the TPP vote. At the 2013 federal election, 11 of 150 seats returned differing TPP and TCP figures ("non-classic seats"), indicating a considerable two-party system.[4]
The tallying of seat TPP results gives a statewide and/or national TPP vote. Non-classic seats have votes redistributed for informational purposes to the major parties so that every seat has a TPP result. Whilst the TCP is the determining factor in deciding which candidate wins a seat, the overall election TPP is statistical and indicative only, as swings in seats are not uniform, and a varying range of factors can influence marginal-seat wins with
As the TPP vote rather than the primary vote is a better indicator of who is in front with seats won and lost on a preferential basis, Australian opinion polls survey voter intention with a TPP always produced. However, these TPP figures tend to be calculated based on preference flows at the previous election rather than asked at the time of polling. The difference between the two is usually within the margin of error (usually +/– 3 percentage points). History has shown that prior-election preference flows are more reliable.[5]
Three-candidate preferred vote
As traditional two party preferred electorates began to turn into three party contests, the order of elimination began to become more important in determining the result, which often would not become clear until all but three candidates were excluded. Early examples of this included Maiwar at the 2017 Queensland State Election, in which the Green candidate came third on the primary vote, but earned enough preferences to make it into the top two, and win the seat based on Labor preferences, who were initially second place. This requires a primary vote, wherein the 1st placed candidate wins a significant proportion of the primary vote, but loses as the second and third placed candidates outnumber the first and have strong preference flows to each other, or the top three candidates all approximately poll a similar amount. At the 2022 Federal Election, the AEC performed three candidate counts for the first time in the seats of Macnamara, and Brisbane, which fulfilled the latter and former criteria respectively.[6]
Analysis
After the count has taken place, it is possible to analyze the ultimate preference flows for votes cast for the parties that were ultimately excluded from the TPP calculation, in order to determine if the composite flow would have significantly affected the final result. Such an exercise is shown for the 2017 by-election in Bennelong:
Party | Candidate | First preferences | % preference to | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Votes | % | Liberal | Labor | |||
Greens | Justin Alick | 5,688 | 6.8 | 19.7 | 80.3 | |
Conservatives | Joram Richa | 3,609 | 4.3 | 86.5 | 13.5 | |
Christian Democrats | Gui Dong Cao | 2,626 | 3.1 | 72.4 | 27.6 | |
Science | James Jansson | 1,041 | 1.2 | 39.4 | 60.6 | |
Sustainable Australia
|
Wesley Folitarik | 995 | 1.2 | 48.9 | 51.1 | |
Affordable Housing | Anthony Ziebell | 741 | 0.9 | 44.7 | 55.3 | |
Liberty Alliance
|
Tony Robinson | 719 | 0.9 | 79.0 | 21.0 | |
Progressives | Chris Golding | 425 | 0.5 | 42.1 | 57.9 | |
People's Party | James Platter | 186 | 0.2 | 48.9 | 51.1 | |
Non-Custodial Parents | Anthony Fels | 132 | 0.2 | 56.1 | 43.9 | |
Totals | 16,162 | 19.2 | 51.2 | 48.8 |
Preference flows in federal elections
Party | First preferences | % preference to | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Votes | % | Liberal | Labor | ||
Greens | 1,482,923 | 10.40 | 17.8 | 82.2 | |
United Australia Party
|
488,817 | 3.43 | 65.1 | 34.9 | |
Independent
|
479,836 | 3.37 | 40.6 | 59.4 | |
One Nation | 438,587 | 3.08 | 65.2 | 34.8 | |
Christian Democrat
|
116,675 | 0.68 | 74.4 | 25.6 | |
Conservative Nationals | 77,203 | 0.54 | 71.8 | 28.2 | |
Katter's Australia | 69,736 | 0.49 | 67.0 | 33.0 | |
Centre Alliance | 46,931 | 0.33 | 32.9 | 67.1 | |
Shooters, Fishers, Farmers | 41,479 | 0.29 | 59.1 | 40.9 | |
Sustainable Australia
|
35,618 | 0.25 | 46.0 | 54.0 | |
Liberal Democrats
|
34,666 | 0.24 | 77.2 | 22.8 | |
Justice | 26,803 | 0.19 | 46.2 | 53.8 | |
Western Australia | 25,298 | 0.18 | 49.0 | 51.0 | |
Australian Christians | 23,802 | 0.17 | 80.8 | 19.2 | |
Democratic Labour
|
18,287 | 0.13 | 39.8 | 60.2 | |
Rise Up Australia | 18,287 | 0.10 | 60.4 | 39.6 | |
Science | 12,617 | 0.09 | 32.5 | 67.5 | |
Victorian Socialists | 12,453 | 0.09 | 12.4 | 87.6 | |
Reason | 8,895 | 0.06 | 31.2 | 68.8 | |
Progressives | 7,759 | 0.05 | 32.8 | 67.2 | |
Australia First | 6,786 | 0.05 | 56.4 | 43.6 | |
Great Australian
|
5,355 | 0.04 | 53.1 | 46.9 | |
CEC
|
3,267 | 0.02 | 26.4 | 73.6 | |
Socialist Equality | 2,866 | 0.02 | 36.9 | 63.1 | |
Socialist Alliance | 2,447 | 0.02 | 20.2 | 79.8 | |
Non-Affiliated | 2,143 | 0.02 | 32.4 | 67.6 | |
Better Families | 2,072 | 0.01 | 64.1 | 35.9 | |
Australian Democrats | 2,039 | 0.01 | 30.9 | 69.1 | |
Workers | 1,676 | 0.01 | 58.7 | 41.3 | |
Love Australia or Leave | 1,564 | 0.01 | 54.5 | 45.5 | |
Child Protection | 1,219 | 0.01 | 45.4 | 54.6 | |
Non-Custodial Parents
|
1,213 | 0.01 | 51.3 | 48.7 | |
Involuntary Medication Objectors | 1,179 | 0.01 | 36.4 | 63.6 | |
Flux | 602 | 0.00 | 46.2 | 53.8 |
Examples
Federal, Swan 1918
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Labor | Edwin Corboy | 6,540 | 34.4 | N/A | |
Country | Basil Murray | 5,975 | 31.4 | N/A | |
Nationalist | William Hedges | 5,635 | 29.6 | N/A | |
Independent | William Watson | 884 | 4.6 | N/A | |
Turnout | 19,213 | 64.3% | |||
Labor gain from Nationalist | Swing | N/A |
The result of the 1918 Swan by-election, the first-past-the-post election which caused the government of the day to introduce full-preference instant-runoff voting, under which Labor would have been easily defeated. Labor won the seat, and their majority was 3.0 points (34.4 minus 31.4). No swings are available as the Nationalists retained the seat unopposed at the previous election.
Federal, Adelaide 2004
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Liberal | Trish Worth | 38,530 | 45.29 | +0.82 | |
Labor | Kate Ellis | 35,666 | 41.92 | +5.50 | |
Greens | Jake Bugden | 6,794 | 7.99 | +2.02 | |
Family First | Peter G Robins | 1,753 | 2.06 | +2.06 | |
Democrats | Richard Pascoe | 1,355 | 1.59 | –9.30 | |
Independent | Amanda Barlow | 978 | 1.15 | +1.15 | |
Total formal votes | 85,076 | 95.60 | +0.66 | ||
Informal votes | 3,920 | 4.40 | –0.66 | ||
Turnout | 88,996 | 93.62 | –1.09 | ||
Two-party-preferred result | |||||
Labor | Kate Ellis | 43,671 | 51.33 | +1.95 | |
Liberal | Trish Worth | 41,405 | 48.67 | –1.95 | |
Labor gain from Liberal | Swing | +1.95 |
It can be seen that the Liberal candidate had a primary vote lead over the Labor candidate. In a first-past-the-post vote, the Liberals would have retained the seat, and their majority would be said to be 3.4 points (45.3 minus 41.9).
However, under full-preference instant-runoff voting, the votes of all the minor candidates were distributed as follows:
2nd count: Barlow 978 votes distributed | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Party | Candidate | Added votes | % | Votes | % | |
Liberal | Trish Worth | 172 | 17.6 | 38,702 | 45.5 | |
Labor | Kate Ellis | 206 | 21.1 | 35,872 | 42.2 | |
Greens | Jake Bugden | 365 | 37.3 | 7,159 | 8.4 | |
Family First | Peter G Robins | 96 | 9.8 | 1,849 | 2.2 | |
Democrats | Richard Pascoe | 139 | 14.2 | 1,494 | 1.8 | |
Total | 978 | 85,076 |
3rd count: Democrats 1,494 votes distributed | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Party | Candidate | Added votes | % | Votes | % | |
Liberal | Trish Worth | 343 | 23.0 | 39,045 | 45.9 | |
Labor | Kate Ellis | 494 | 33.1 | 36,366 | 42.8 | |
Greens | Jake Bugden | 560 | 37.5 | 7,719 | 9.1 | |
Family First | Peter G Robins | 97 | 6.5 | 1,946 | 2.3 | |
Total | 1,494 | 85,076 |
4th count: Family First 1,946 votes distributed | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Party | Candidate | Added votes | % | Votes | % | |
Liberal | Trish Worth | 1,098 | 56.4 | 40,143 | 47.2 | |
Labor | Kate Ellis | 377 | 19.4 | 36,743 | 43.2 | |
Greens | Jake Bugden | 471 | 24.2 | 8,190 | 9.6 | |
Total | 1,946 | 85,076 |
5th count: Greens 8,190 votes distributed – final TPP/TCP | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Party | Candidate | Added votes | % | Votes | % | |
Labor | Kate Ellis | 6,928 | 84.6 | 43,671 | 51.3 | |
Liberal | Trish Worth | 1,262 | 15.4 | 41,405 | 48.7 | |
Total | 8,190 | 85,076 | 1.3 |
The process of allocating the votes can be more succinctly shown thus:
Party | Candidate | Count | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | Total | |||
Labor | Kate Ellis | 35,666 | 206 | 494 | 377 | 6,928 | 43,671 | |
Liberal | Trish Worth | 38,530 | 172 | 343 | 1,098 | 1,262 | 41,405 | |
Greens | Jake Bugden | 6,794 | 365 | 560 | 471 | (8,190) | ||
Family First | Peter G Robins | 1,753 | 96 | 97 | (1,946) | |||
Democrats | Richard Pascoe | 1,355 | 139 | (1,494) | ||||
Independent | Amanda Barlow | 978 | (978) |
Thus, Labor defeated the Liberals, with 85 percent of Green and Green-preferenced voters preferencing Labor on the last distribution. Labor's TPP/TCP vote was 51.3 percent, a TPP/TCP majority of 1.3 points, and a TPP/TCP swing of 1.9 points compared with the previous election.
South Australia, Frome 2009
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Liberal | Terry Boylan | 7,576 | 39.24 | –8.86 | |
Labor | John Rohde | 5,041 | 26.11 | –14.93 | |
Independent | Geoff Brock | 4,557 | 23.60 | +23.60 | |
National | Neville Wilson | 1,267 | 6.56 | +6.56 | |
Greens | Joy O'Brien | 734 | 3.80 | +0.06 | |
One Nation | Peter Fitzpatrick | 134 | 0.69 | +0.69 | |
Total formal votes | 19,309 | 97.12 | +0.21 | ||
Informal votes | 573 | 2.88 | –0.21 | ||
Turnout | 19,882 | 89.79 | –4.44 | ||
Two-party-preferred result | |||||
Liberal | Terry Boylan | 9,976 | 51.67 | –1.74 | |
Labor | John Rohde | 9,333 | 48.33 | +1.74 | |
Two-candidate-preferred result
| |||||
Independent | Geoff Brock | 9,987 | 51.72 | +51.72 | |
Liberal | Terry Boylan | 9,322 | 48.28 | –5.13 | |
Independent gain from Liberal | Swing | N/A |
The 2009 Frome by-election was closely contested, with the result being uncertain for over a week.[11][12][13] Liberal leader Martin Hamilton-Smith claimed victory on behalf of the party.[14][15][16] The result hinged on the performance of Brock against Labor in the competition for second place. Brock polled best in the Port Pirie area, and received enough eliminated candidate preferences to end up ahead of the Labor candidate by 30 votes.
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Liberal | Terry Boylan | 8,215 | 42.54 | ||
Independent | Geoff Brock | 5,562 | 28.81 | ||
Labor | John Rohde | 5,532 | 28.65 |
Brock received 80 percent of Labor's fifth count preferences to achieve a TCP vote of 51.72 percent (a majority of 665 votes) against the Liberal candidate.[18][19] The by-election saw a rare TPP swing to an incumbent government, and was the first time an opposition had lost a seat at a by-election in South Australia.[20][21] The result in Frome at the 2010 state election saw Brock come first on primary votes, increasing his primary vote by 14.1 points to a total of 37.7 percent and his TCP vote by 6.5 points to a total of 58.2 percent. Despite a statewide swing against Labor at the election, Labor again increased its TPP vote in Frome by 1.8 points to a total of 50.1 percent.
Federal, Melbourne 2010
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Labor | Cath Bowtell | 34,022 | 38.09 | –11.42 | |
Greens | Adam Bandt | 32,308 | 36.17 | +13.37 | |
Liberal | Simon Olsen | 18,760 | 21.00 | –2.49 | |
Sex Party | Joel Murray | 1,633 | 1.83 | +1.83 | |
Family First | Georgia Pearson | 1,389 | 1.55 | +0.55 | |
Secular | Penelope Green | 613 | 0.69 | +0.69 | |
Democrats | David Collyer | 602 | 0.67 | –0.76 | |
Total formal votes | 89,327 | 96.38 | –0.82 | ||
Informal votes | 3,356 | 3.62 | +0.82 | ||
Turnout | 92,683 | 90.09 | –1.41 | ||
Two-party-preferred result | |||||
Labor | Cath Bowtell | 65,473 | 73.30 | +1.03 | |
Liberal | Simon Olsen | 23,854 | 26.70 | –1.03 | |
Two-candidate-preferred result
| |||||
Greens | Adam Bandt | 50,059 | 56.04 | +10.75 | |
Labor | Cath Bowtell | 39,268 | 43.96 | –10.75 | |
Greens gain from Labor | Swing | +10.75 |
In this example, the two remaining candidates/parties, one a minor party, were the same after preference distribution at both this election and the previous election. Therefore, differing TPP and TCP votes, margins, and swings resulted.[22]
South Australia, Port Adelaide 2012
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Labor | Susan Close | 8,218 | 42.3 | –7.6 | |
Independent | Gary Johanson | 4,717 | 24.3 | +24.3 | |
Independent | Sue Lawrie | 2,938 | 15.1 | +15.1 | |
Liberal Democrats | Stephen Humble | 1,415 | 7.3 | +7.3 | |
Greens | Justin McArthur | 1,096 | 5.6 | –0.6 | |
Independent | Colin Thomas | 314 | 1.6 | +1.6 | |
Independent | Bob Briton | 292 | 1.5 | +1.5 | |
One Nation | Grant Carlin | 269 | 1.4 | +1.4 | |
Democratic Labor | Elizabeth Pistor | 151 | 0.8 | +0.8 | |
Total formal votes | 19,410 | 92.8 | –3.8 | ||
Informal votes | 1,505 | 7.2 | +3.8 | ||
Turnout | 20,915 | 82.8 | –10.4 | ||
Two-candidate-preferred result
| |||||
Labor | Susan Close | 10,277 | 52.9 | –9.8 | |
Independent | Gary Johanson | 9,133 | 47.1 | +47.1 | |
Labor hold | Swing | N/A |
At the
Unlike previous examples, neither a TPP or TCP
House of Representatives primary, two-party and seat results
This section's factual accuracy is disputed. (May 2022) |
A
Election Year |
Labour | Free Trade | Protectionist | Independent | Other parties |
Total seats | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1st | 1901 | 14 | 28 | 31 | 2 | 75 | ||||
Election Year |
Labour | Free Trade | Protectionist | Independent | Other parties |
Total seats | ||||
2nd | 1903 | 23 | 25 | 26 | 1 | Revenue Tariff | 75 | |||
Election Year |
Labour | Anti-Socialist | Protectionist | Independent | Other parties |
Total seats | ||||
3rd | 1906 | 26 | 26 | 21 | 1 | 1 | Western Australian | 75 |
Primary vote | 2PP vote | Seats | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ALP | L+NP | Oth. | ALP | L+NP | ALP | L+NP | Oth. | Total | |
13 April 1910 election | 50.0% | 45.1% | 4.9% | – | – | 42 | 31 | 2 | 75 |
31 May 1913 election | 48.5% | 48.9% | 2.6% | – | – | 37 | 38 | 0 | 75 |
5 September 1914 election | 50.9% | 47.2% | 1.9% | – | – | 42 | 32 | 1 | 75 |
5 May 1917 election | 43.9% | 54.2% | 1.9% | – | – | 22 | 53 | 0 | 75 |
13 December 1919 election | 42.5% | 54.3% | 3.2% | 45.9% | 54.1% | 25 | 38 | 2 | 75 |
16 December 1922 election | 42.3% | 47.8% | 9.9% | 48.8% | 51.2% | 29 | 40 | 6 | 75 |
14 November 1925 election | 45.0% | 53.2% | 1.8% | 46.2% | 53.8% | 23 | 50 | 2 | 75 |
17 November 1928 election | 44.6% | 49.6% | 5.8% | 48.4% | 51.6% | 31 | 42 | 2 | 75 |
12 October 1929 election | 48.8% | 44.2% | 7.0% | 56.7% | 43.3% | 46 | 24 | 5 | 75 |
19 December 1931 election | 27.1% | 48.4% | 24.5% | 41.5% | 58.5% | 14 | 50 | 11 | 75 |
15 September 1934 election | 26.8% | 45.6% | 27.6% | 46.5% | 53.5% | 18 | 42 | 14 | 74 |
23 October 1937 election | 43.2% | 49.3% | 7.5% | 49.4% | 50.6% | 29 | 43 | 2 | 74 |
21 September 1940 election | 40.2% | 43.9% | 15.9% | 50.3% | 49.7% | 32 | 36 | 6 | 74 |
21 August 1943 election | 49.9% | 23.0% | 27.1% | 58.2% | 41.8% | 49 | 19 | 6 | 74 |
28 September 1946 election | 49.7% | 39.3% | 11.0% | 54.1% | 45.9% | 43 | 26 | 5 | 74 |
10 December 1949 election | 46.0% | 50.3% | 3.7% | 49.0% | 51.0% | 47 | 74 | 0 | 121 |
28 April 1951 election | 47.6% | 50.3% | 2.1% | 49.3% | 50.7% | 52 | 69 | 0 | 121 |
29 May 1954 election | 50.0% | 46.8% | 3.2% | 50.7% | 49.3% | 57 | 64 | 0 | 121 |
10 December 1955 election | 44.6% | 47.6% | 7.8% | 45.8% | 54.2% | 47 | 75 | 0 | 122 |
22 November 1958 election | 42.8% | 46.6% | 10.6% | 45.9% | 54.1% | 45 | 77 | 0 | 122 |
9 December 1961 election | 47.9% | 42.1% | 10.0% | 50.5% | 49.5% | 60 | 62 | 0 | 122 |
30 November 1963 election | 45.5% | 46.0% | 8.5% | 47.4% | 52.6% | 50 | 72 | 0 | 122 |
26 November 1966 election | 40.0% | 50.0% | 10.0% | 43.1% | 56.9% | 41 | 82 | 1 | 124 |
25 October 1969 election | 47.0% | 43.3% | 9.7% | 50.2% | 49.8% | 59 | 66 | 0 | 125 |
2 December 1972 election | 49.6% | 41.5% | 8.9% | 52.7% | 47.3% | 67 | 58 | 0 | 125 |
18 May 1974 election | 49.3% | 44.9% | 5.8% | 51.7% | 48.3% | 66 | 61 | 0 | 127 |
13 December 1975 election | 42.8% | 53.1% | 4.1% | 44.3% | 55.7% | 36 | 91 | 0 | 127 |
10 December 1977 election | 39.7% | 48.1% | 12.2% | 45.4% | 54.6% | 38 | 86 | 0 | 124 |
18 October 1980 election | 45.2% | 46.3% | 8.5% | 49.6% | 50.4% | 51 | 74 | 0 | 125 |
5 March 1983 election | 49.5% | 43.6% | 6.9% | 53.2% | 46.8% | 75 | 50 | 0 | 125 |
1 December 1984 election | 47.6% | 45.0% | 7.4% | 51.8% | 48.2% | 82 | 66 | 0 | 148 |
11 July 1987 election | 45.8% | 46.1% | 8.1% | 50.8% | 49.2% | 86 | 62 | 0 | 148 |
24 March 1990 election | 39.4% | 43.5% | 17.1% | 49.9% | 50.1% | 78 | 69 | 1 | 148 |
11 Mar 1993 Newspoll | 44% | 45% | 11% | 49.5% | 50.5% | ||||
13 March 1993 election | 44.9% | 44.3% | 10.7% | 51.4% | 48.6% | 80 | 65 | 2 | 147 |
28–29 Feb 1996 Newspoll | 40.5% | 48% | 11.5% | 46.5% | 53.5% | ||||
2 March 1996 election | 38.7% | 47.3% | 14.0% | 46.4% | 53.6% | 49 | 94 | 5 | 148 |
30 Sep – 1 Oct 1998 Newspoll | 44% | 40% | 16% | 53% | 47% | ||||
3 October 1998 election | 40.1% | 39.5% | 20.4% | 51.0% | 49.0% | 67 | 80 | 1 | 148 |
7–8 Nov 2001 Newspoll | 38.5% | 46% | 15.5% | 47% | 53% | ||||
10 November 2001 election | 37.8% | 43.0% | 19.2% | 49.0% | 51.0% | 65 | 82 | 3 | 150 |
6–7 Oct 2004 Newspoll | 39% | 45% | 16% | 50% | 50% | ||||
9 October 2004 election | 37.6% | 46.7% | 15.7% | 47.3% | 52.7% | 60 | 87 | 3 | 150 |
20–22 Nov 2007 Newspoll | 44% | 43% | 13% | 52% | 48% | ||||
24 November 2007 election | 43.4% | 42.1% | 14.5% | 52.7% | 47.3% | 83 | 65 | 2 | 150 |
17–19 Aug 2010 Newspoll | 36.2% | 43.4% | 20.4% | 50.2% | 49.8% | ||||
21 August 2010 election | 38.0% | 43.3% | 18.7% | 50.1% | 49.9% | 72 | 72 | 6 | 150 |
3–5 Sep 2013 Newspoll | 33% | 46% | 21% | 46% | 54% | ||||
7 September 2013 election | 33.4% | 45.6% | 21.0% | 46.5% | 53.5% | 55 | 90 | 5 | 150 |
28 Jun – 1 Jul 2016 Newspoll | 35% | 42% | 23% | 49.5% | 50.5% | ||||
2 July 2016 election | 34.7% | 42.0% | 23.3% | 49.6% | 50.4% | 69 | 76 | 5 | 150 |
15–16 May 2019 Newspoll | 37% | 39% | 25% | 51.5% | 48.5% | ||||
18 May 2019 election | 33.3% | 41.4% | 25.2% | 48.5% | 51.5% | 68 | 77 | 6 | 151 |
Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian. Three percent margin of error. |
Non-standard contests
In seats not held or won by minor parties, the two-party-preferred contest is almost always between either both major parties (Coalition vs. Labor) or (less commonly) between a major party and an independent, there have been some cases in certain electorates where the contest has been between a major party and a minor party (and the major party wins).
Federal examples
In many inner-city seats that are safely held by Labor, the
In 2016 and 2019, One Nation finished second in the seat of Maranoa in outback Queensland.
In 2016, the
State examples
In New South Wales, there were only two electorates where minor parties finished second to a major party at the 2023 state election (Labor won both electorates); the Greens finished second in Summer Hill and One Nation finished second in Cessnock.[29] At the previous state election in 2019, the Greens finished second in four seats (Davidson, Manly, Pittwater and Vaucluse), all of which were won by the Liberals and were all located in Sydney.[30]
In Victoria, the Greens finished second to Labor in four Melbourne seats in 2022. These were Footscray, Northcote, Pascoe Vale, Preston.[31]
In
In Western Australia, the Greens finished second to Labor in Fremantle at the 2021 state election.[35]
Graphical summary
Federal
Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
New South Wales
Victoria
Queensland
Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Western Australia
Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
South Australia
Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Northern Territory
Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
See also
References
- ^ "How the House of Representatives votes are counted". Australian Electoral Commission. Retrieved 11 March 2012.
- ^ "Historical national and state-by-state two-party preferred results". Australian Electoral Commission. 17 February 2016. Retrieved 1 August 2016.
- ISBN 9781921862632. Retrieved 1 August 2016.
- ^ "Non-classic divisions, 2010 federal election". Australian Electoral Commission. 4 November 2013. Retrieved 1 August 2016.
- ^ Antony Green (10 February 2012). "How Should Reachtel's Ashgrove Polls be Interpreted". Blogs.abc.net.au. Archived from the original on 7 September 2012. Retrieved 1 August 2016.
- ^ "AEC redirection page".
- ^ Green, Anthony (15 January 2018). "2017 Bennelong by-election: Commentary". abc.net.au. ABC News.
- ^ Green, Antony (25 November 2019). "Preference Flows at the 2019 Federal Election – Antony Green's Election Blog". Retrieved 19 August 2020.
- ^ "2009 Frome by-election results: State Electoral Office". Seo.sa.gov.au. Archived from the original on 20 January 2009. Retrieved 28 July 2010.
- ^ "2009 Frome By-election: ABC Elections". Abc.net.au. 2 February 2009. Retrieved 28 July 2010.
- ^ "Frome by-election goes down to the wire". ABC Online. 18 January 2009. Retrieved 25 January 2009.
- ^ Green, Antony. "Frome By-election Results". ABC Online. Retrieved 25 January 2009.
- ^ Emmerson, Russell; Pepper, Chris (18 January 2009). "Liberals confident they'll hold Outback seat of Frome". The Advertiser. Archived from the original on 20 January 2009. Retrieved 25 January 2009.
- ^ "Liberals claim victory in Frome". Poll Bludger (Crikey). 21 January 2009. Archived from the original on 31 January 2009. Retrieved 25 January 2009. This article reproduces the original Liberal press release, no longer available on the SA Liberal site.
- ^ Hendrik Gout (30 January 2009). "Frome one loss to another: Independent Weekly 30/1/2009". Independentweekly.com.au. Retrieved 28 July 2010.
- ^ Richardson, Tom (30 January 2009). "Frome, a lost moment for the Libs: Independent Weekly 30/1/2009". Independentweekly.com.au. Retrieved 28 July 2010.
- ^ "District of Frome" (PDF). Retrieved 28 July 2010.[permanent dead link]
- ^ Pepper, Chris (25 January 2009). "Shock Frome loss rocks SA Liberals". The Advertiser. Retrieved 25 January 2009.
- ^ Jamie Walker (31 January 2009). "Peace plea as Nationals take revenge on Liberals at polling booth: The Australian 31/1/2009". Theaustralian.news.com.au. Archived from the original on 6 March 2009. Retrieved 28 July 2010.
- ^ David Nason, New York correspondent (26 January 2009). "Leader left with pumpkin: The Australian 26/1/2009". Theaustralian.news.com.au. Archived from the original on 11 September 2012. Retrieved 28 July 2010.
- ^ Gavin Lower and David Nason (26 January 2009). "Libs demand recount after shock poll loss: The Australian 26/1/2009". Theaustralian.news.com.au. Archived from the original on 13 September 2012. Retrieved 28 July 2010.
- ^ "Melbourne 2010 election result". Australian Electoral Commission. 29 September 2010. Retrieved 1 August 2016.
- ^ "2012 Port Adelaide by-election results: ECSA". Archived from the original on 28 July 2012.
- ^ "Port Adelaide by-election preference distribution: ECSA" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on 9 April 2013.
- ^ Antony Green (20 February 2012). "2012 Port Adelaide by-election results". Abc.net.au. Retrieved 1 August 2016.
- ^ Antony Green (13 February 2012). "A Comment on the Size of the Port Adelaide Swing". Blogs.abc.net.au. Retrieved 1 August 2016.
- ^ "Port now a poll target for Liberals". The Advertiser. 2 March 2012. Retrieved 1 August 2016.
- ^ "Susan Close wins Port Adelaide for Labor but seat now marginal". The Australian. 11 February 2012.
"Labor Keeps Port Adelaide, Ramsay in South Australian by-elections". The Australian. 12 February 2012.
"By-election swings carry 'message for Labor'". The Australian. 13 February 2012. - ^ "New South Wales Election 2023 Results". Australian Broadcasting Corporation.
- ^ "New South Wales Election 2019 Results". Australian Broadcasting Corporation.
- ^ "Victoria Election 2022 Results". Australian Broadcasting Corporation.
- ^ "Queensland Election 2020 Results". Australian Broadcasting Corporation.
- ^ "Bundamba By-election - BCC Electorate, Candidates, Results". Australian Broadcasting Corporation.
- ^ "Queensland Election 2017 Results". Australian Broadcasting Corporation.
- ^ "Western Australia Election 2021 Results". Australian Broadcasting Corporation.
- ^ "House of Representatives - Two party preferred results 1949 - present".