2008 United States Senate election in Virginia
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Turnout | 67.0% (voting eligible)[1] | ||||||||||||||||
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Warner: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Gilmore: 40–50% 50–60% | |||||||||||||||||
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Elections in Virginia |
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The 2008 United States Senate election in Virginia was held on November 4, 2008. Incumbent Republican Senator
Warner's large margin of victory was reflected throughout the state — Gilmore won only six counties and independent cities (
Background
John Warner, a former United States Under Secretary of the Navy, had served Virginia in the Senate since 1979, and had been cagey about whether he would be running for re-election. He would have been favored for a sixth term had he decided to run again, even with recent Democratic gains in the state. In early 2007, it was speculated that Warner, who turned 80 in February of that year, would retire. When Warner reported on April 12, 2007 that he had raised only $500 in campaign contributions during the first quarter, speculation increased that he may not seek a sixth term.[2]
On August 31, 2007, Warner formally announced that he would not be seeking re-election.
The Wall Street Journal reported a story of National Republican Senatorial Committee chairman Senator John Ensign outlining the 10 most competitive seats of the 2008 Senate election. When asked about the two GOP seats likely to switch parties, Virginia and New Mexico, on whether the NRSC was mulling walking away to work on other seats that could be won, Ensign said, "You don't waste money on races that don't need it or you can't win." This suggested that the NRSC may have started cutting money off.[5]
Republican nomination
Candidates
- Jim Gilmore, former Governor of Virginia
- Bob Marshall, State Delegate from Manassas
Withdrew
- Tom Davis, U.S. Representative from Vienna
Declined
- John Warner, incumbent U.S. Senator since 1979
On September 16, 2007, Republican
On October 1, 2007, the editors of the National Review encouraged Virginia voters to draft General Peter Pace, the retiring Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, to run in 2008 for the Senate seat to be vacated by retiring Senator John Warner. The magazine cited Pace's conservative Catholic beliefs in making its suggestion.[8]
On October 13, the
Davis dropped out of the race on October 25, 2007, citing the potential difficulties of defeating Gilmore in the conservative-dominated GOP convention and in taking on Warner, who is very popular in Davis' own Northern Virginia base.[10] Gilmore confirmed his candidacy on November 19, 2007.[11]
On January 7, 2008,
Republican Convention Vote[14]
Candidate | 1st District | 2nd District | 3rd District | 4th District | 5th District | 6th District | 7th District | 8th District | 9th District | 10th District | 11th District | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jim Gilmore | 491 | 613 | 121 | 319 | 667 | 531 | 1036 | 156 | 552 | 160 | 557 | 5223 |
Bob Marshall | 643 | 345 | 75 | 383 | 420 | 507 | 582 | 145 | 335 | 585 | 1137 | 5157 |
Total | 1134 | 958 | 196 | 702 | 1087 | 938 | 1618 | 301 | 887 | 745 | 1714 | 10380 |
Democratic nomination
On September 12, 2007, former Governor Mark Warner (no relation to John Warner) announced his candidacy.[4][15] Mark Warner had challenged John Warner for his Senate seat in 1996, but was narrowly defeated. Mark Warner later won election in 2001 as Governor of Virginia, and left office with a high level of popularity in 2006. He was confirmed as the party nominee at the state convention on June 10, 2008, as he went unopposed.
General election
Candidates
- Jim Gilmore, former Governor of Virginia (Republican)
- Glenda Parker, retired United States Air Force officer and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2006 (Independent Greens)
- Bill Redpath, national chair of the Libertarian Party (Libertarian)
- Mark Warner, former Governor of Virginia (Democratic)
On March 29, 2008, the
Campaign
After the conclusions of the state conventions, Democrat Mark Warner had emerged as the front-runner for the Class 2 Senate seat from Virginia. Some early polling showed Mark Warner leading Jim Gilmore by as much as 2-1.
Pundits and analysists believed Virginia to be the single strongest pickup opportunity for the Democrats due to Warner's consistent lead in the polls.
Jim Gilmore responded aggressively, mostly with ads on the Internet; his campaign had very little money. Gilmore attacked Warner for raising taxes during his term as governor, when he had pledged not to do so,[18] flip-flopping[19] among many other topics.
On October 6, 2008, Mark Warner and Jim Gilmore debated various issues, including the
The Washington Post reported on July 24, 2008, that Jim Gilmore "submitted false information on two financial disclosure forms that hid his ties to a government contractor embroiled in a legal dispute over allegations that two of its executives had conspired to defraud the federal government." The Gilmore campaign responded by saying, the controversy was due to a "clerical error."[23]
On election night, Warner was declared the winner based on exit polls alone, before the votes were counted.
Fundraising
Money played a large role in the campaign. By July, Mark Warner had raised $9 million, while Jim Gilmore had raised $1.2 million.[24] This does not include money from the DSCC or NRSC.
Endorsements
Mark Warner
- Bristol Herald-Courier
- Daily Press (Newport News)[25]
- Danville Register & Bee
- Fredericksburg Free Lance-Star[26]
- Loudoun Times-Mirror
- Martinsville Bulletin[27]
- News and Advance(Lynchburg)
- The Roanoke Times[28]
- The Virginian-Pilot (Norfolk)[29]
- The Washington Post[30]
Jim Gilmore
Predictions
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[31]
|
Likely D (flip) | October 23, 2008 |
CQ Politics[32] | Safe D (flip) | October 31, 2008 |
Rothenberg Political Report[33] | Likely D (flip) | November 2, 2008 |
Real Clear Politics[34]
|
Safe D (flip) | November 1, 2008 |
Polling
Source | Date | Jim Gilmore (R) |
Mark Warner (D) |
---|---|---|---|
Rasmussen Reports | September 5, 2007 | 34% | 54% |
Survey USA | September 17, 2007 | 32% | 60% |
Newport University | October 1, 2007 | 27% | 51% |
Washington Post | October 12, 2007 | 31% | 61% |
Rasmussen Reports | October 24, 2007 | 37% | 53% |
SurveyUSA | November 5, 2007 | 35% | 57% |
Rasmussen Reports | January 3, 2008 | 38% | 53% |
Rasmussen Reports | February 19, 2008 | 37% | 57% |
Rasmussen Reports | March 26, 2008 | 39% | 55% |
Rasmussen Reports | May 8, 2008 | 37% | 55% |
Rasmussen Reports | June 12, 2008 | 33% | 60% |
PPP(D) | June 14, 2008 | 28% | 59% |
Rasmussen Reports | July 16, 2008 | 36% | 59% |
Rasmussen Reports | August 12, 2008 | 35% | 61% |
Public Policy Polling | August 22, 2008 | 32% | 55% |
Survey USA | September 7, 2008 | 35% | 56% |
Survey USA | September 12, 2008 | 34% | 57% |
Public Policy Polling | September 13, 2008 | 33% | 57% |
Newport University Archived September 18, 2008, at the Wayback Machine | September 17, 2008 | 30% | 54% |
Survey USA | September 21, 2008 | 34% | 57% |
Rasmussen Reports | September 25, 2008 | 34% | 60% |
Rasmussen Reports | October 16, 2008 | 36% | 61% |
Survey USA | October 18, 2008 | 36% | 60% |
Survey USA | October 26, 2008 | 32% | 63% |
Survey USA | November 1, 2008 | 35% | 59% |
Public Policy Polling | November 2, 2008 | 36% | 62% |
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Mark Warner | 2,369,327 | 65.03% | +65.03% | |
Republican | Jim Gilmore | 1,228,830 | 33.72% | -48.85% | |
Independent Greens
|
Glenda Parker | 21,690 | 0.60% | +0.60% | |
Libertarian | Bill Redpath
|
20,269 | 0.56% | +0.56% | |
Write-in | 3,178 | 0.09% | -0.47% | ||
Total votes | 3,643,294 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
Democratic gain from Republican |
Counties and Independent Cities that flipped from Republican to Democratic
- Accomack (Largest city: Chincoteague)
- Amelia (no municipalities)
- Amherst (Largest city: Amherst)
- Appomattox (Largest city: Appomattox)
- Bath (Largest city: Hot Springs)
- Bedford (largest city: Bedford)
- Bland (Largest city: Bland)
- Botetourt (Largest city: Cloverdale)
- Buckingham (Largest city: Dillwyn)
- Buchanan (largest city: Grundy)
- Buena Vista (Independent city)
- Bristol (Independent city)
- Campbell (largest city: Altavista)
- Carroll (largest city: Hillsville)
- Charlotte (largest city: Keysville)
- Chesapeake (independent city)
- Chesterfield (no municipalities)
- Clarke (largest city: Berryville)
- Craig (Largest city: New Castle)
- Cumberland (Largest city: Farmville)
- Culpeper (largest borough: Culpeper)
- Dickenson (largest borough: Clintwood)
- Dinwiddie (Largest town: McKenney)
- Essex (Largest city: Tappahannock)
- Emporia (Independent city)
- Fauquier (Largest city: Warrenton)
- Floyd (Largest city: Floyd)
- Franklin (Largest city: Rocky Mount)
- Fluvanna (Largest city: Monticello)
- Galax (Independent city)
- Giles (Largest city: Pearisburg)
- Frederick (Largest city: Winchester)
- Gloucester (Largest city: Gloucester Point)
- Goochland (no municipalities)
- Grayson (Largest city: Independence)
- Greene (Largest city: Twin Lakes)
- Halifax (Largest city: South Boston)
- Henry (Largest city: Martinsville)
- Highland (Largest city: Monterey)
- Isle of Wight (Largest city: Smithfield)
- James City (no municipalities)
- King and Queen Courthouse)
- King George (Largest city: King George)
- King William (Largest city: West Point)
- Lancaster (Largest city: Kilmarnock)
- Lee (Largest city: Pennington Gap)
- Loudoun (Largest city: Leesburg)
- Louisa (Largest city: Louisa)
- Lunenburg (Largest city: Victoria)
- Lexington (Independent city)
- Lynchburg (Independent city)
- Madison (Largest city: Madison)
- Matthews(no municipalities)
- Mecklenburg (Largest city: South Hill)
- Middlesex (Largest city: Urbanna)
- Northumberland (Largest city: Heathsville)
- New Kent (no municipalities)
- Norton (Independent city)
- Radford (Independent city)
- Nottoway (Largest city: Blackstone)
- Orange (Largest city: Orange)
- Page (Largest city: Luray)
- Patrick (Largest city: Stuart)
- Pittsylvania (Largest city: Chatham)
- Prince George (Largest city: Fort Gregg-Adams)
- Pulaski (Largest city: Pulaski)
- Salem (independent city)
- Staunton (independent city)
- Rappahannock (largest city: Washington)
- Richmond (largest city: Warsaw)
- Roanoke (largest city: Vinton)
- Rockbridge (Largest city: Lexington)
- Russell (Largest city: Lebanon)
- Scott (Largest city: Gate City)
- Shenandoah (Largest city: Strasburg)
- Smyth (Largest city: Marion)
- Southampton (largest municipality: Courtland)
- Spotsylvania (largest municipality: Spotsylvania Courthoouse)
- Stafford (no municipalities)
- Tazewell (Largest city: Richlands)
- Warren (Largest city: Front Royal)
- Washington (Largest city: Abingdon)
- Wise (Largest city: Big Stone Gap)
- Westmoreland (Largest city: Colonial Beach)
- Winchester (independent city)
- Virignia Beach (Independent city)
- Waynesboro (independent city)
- Wythe (Largest city: Wytheville)
- York (Largest city: Grafton)
- Albemarle (largest municipality: Scottsville)
- Fairfax (largest municipality: Herndon)
- Nelson (largest municipality: Nellysford)
- Prince Edward (largest municipality: Farmville)
- Danville (independent city)
- Fairfax (independent city)
- Williamsburg (independent city)
- Caroline (largest borough: Bowling Green)
- Harrisonburg (independent city)
- Henrico (largest borough: Richmond)
- Hopewell (independent city)
- Manassas (independent city)
- Manassas Park (independent city)
- Montgomery (largest borough: Blacksburg)
- Prince William (largest borough: Manassas)
- Suffolk (independent city)
- Covington (independent city)
- Martinsville (independent city)
- Brunswick (largest borough: Lawrenceville)
- Charlottesville (independent city)
- Northampton (largest borough: Exmore)
- Surry (no municipalities)
- Emporia (independent city)
- Roanoke (independent city)
- Richmond (independent city)
- Falls Church (independent city)
- Norfolk (independent city)
- Hampton (independent city)
- Portsmouth (independent city)
- Newsport News (independent city)
- Alexandria (independent city)
- Buena Vista (independent city)
- Alleghany (largest borough: Clinfton Forge)
- Arlington (no municipalities)
- Greensville (Largest city: Jarratt)
- Sussex (Largest city: Waverly)
- Petersburg (independent city)
- Charles City (no municipalities)
- Franklin (Largest city: Rocky Mount)
See also
References
- ^ Dr. Michael McDonald (March 31, 2012). "2008 General Election Turnout Rates". George Mason University. Archived from the original on January 12, 2013. Retrieved March 4, 2013.
- ^ Tim Craig (April 13, 2007). "Warner's Fundraising Prompts Speculation on Reelection Plans". The Washington Post. p. B01.
- ^ "Sen. Warner won't seek sixth term". Associated Press via NBC News. August 31, 2007.
- ^ a b Tim Craig and Amy Gardner (September 13, 2007). "Former Va. Gov. Warner Set to Seek Senate Seat". The Washington Post. p. A01.
- ^ "Sen. Ensign Says GOP Majority Would Be 'Fairly Miraculous'". The Wall Street Journal. June 12, 2008.
- ^ Bill Turque (September 15, 2007). "Would-Be Candidate Is Taking His Time". The Washington Post. p. B01.
- ^ McLaughlin, Seth (June 25, 2007). "Mum Warner likely to move on". The Washington Times. Retrieved June 25, 2007.
- ^ "Draft General Pace". National Review. October 1, 2007. Archived from the original on October 13, 2007. Retrieved October 2, 2007.
- ^ Craig, Tim; Agiesta, Jennifer (October 13, 2007). "Republicans Opt for Convention to Choose Nominee - washingtonpost.com". The Washington Post. Retrieved May 27, 2010.
- ^ "Davis Out Of Senate Race, Offers Lukewarm Endorsement To Gilmore". CBS News. October 25, 2007.
- ^ Craig, Tim (November 19, 2007). "Gilmore Enters Senate Race". The Washington Post. Retrieved November 19, 2007.
- ^ Craig, Tim. Marshall to Challenge Gilmore For Republican Nomination. The Washington Post. January 8, 2008.
- ^ Lewis, Bob (May 31, 2008). "Gilmore wins Va. GOP Senate nomination". WTOP-FM. Retrieved May 31, 2008.
- ^ Wordpress.com (June 1, 2008). "The 2008 Virginia Republican Party Convention".
- ^ MarkWarner08 (September 12, 2007). "Mark Warner: Join our effort". Archived from the original on December 13, 2021. Retrieved May 1, 2018 – via YouTube.
{{cite web}}
: CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link) - ^ "LPVA - Libertarian Party of Virginia". www.lpva.com. Archived from the original on January 28, 2021. Retrieved May 1, 2018.
- ^ "IGVA News". votejoinrun.us. Retrieved May 1, 2018.
- ^ Jim Gilmore for Senate (July 17, 2008). "Youtube- Mark Warner's "No Tax Pledge" of 2001".
- ^ Jim Gilmore for President (July 17, 2008). "Sabato: Which is the real Mark Warner?".
- ^ Richmond Times Dispatch (October 6, 2008). "Warner, Gilmore spill over bailout".[permanent dead link]
- ^ "The Daily News Record: Top News". Archived from the original on March 8, 2009. Retrieved May 1, 2018.
- ^ Holmes, Matt (July 19, 2008). "Gilmore, Warner Square Off In First Senate Debate". WCAV. Archived from the original on July 22, 2012. Retrieved July 25, 2008.
- ^ Craig, Tim (July 24, 2008). "Gilmore Filed False Information On Campaign Disclosure Forms". The Washington Post. Retrieved July 25, 2008.
- ^ Emerling, Gary (July 18, 2008). "Warner, Gilmore ready to debate". The Washington Times. Retrieved July 26, 2008.
- ^ "Topic Galleries - dailypress.com". Retrieved May 1, 2018.[permanent dead link]
- ^ "Warner for Senate". Archived from the original on May 22, 2011. Retrieved May 1, 2018.
- ^ "Vote Warner for Senate - Martinsville Bulletin". Archived from the original on February 16, 2012. Retrieved May 1, 2018.
- ^ "Mark Warner for U.S. Senate - Roanoke.com". Archived from the original on March 20, 2012. Retrieved May 1, 2018.
- ^ Virginian-Pilot, The. "Mark Warner for U.S. Senate". Archived from the original on February 29, 2012. Retrieved May 1, 2018.
- ^ "Mark Warner for Senate". The Washington Post. October 12, 2008. Retrieved May 27, 2010.
- ^ "2008 Senate Race ratings for October 23, 2008". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved April 1, 2021.
- ^ Race Ratings Chart: Senate Archived October 28, 2010, at the Wayback Machine CQ Politics
- ^ "2008 Senate ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved April 1, 2021.
- ^ "2008 RCP Averages & Senate Results". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved August 31, 2021.
- ^ "2008 Election Statistics". clerk.house.gov. Retrieved May 1, 2018.
External links
- General
- Virginia State Board of Elections
- U.S. Congress candidates for Virginia at Project Vote Smart
- Virginia, U.S. Senate from CQ Politics
- Virginia U.S. Senate from OurCampaigns.com
- Virginia Senate race from 2008 Race Tracker
- Campaign contributions from OpenSecrets
- Gilmore (R) vs M. Warner (D) graph of multiple polls from Pollster.com
- Official campaign websites (Archived)
- Jim Gilmore for Senate, Republican nominee
- Mark Warner for Senate, Democratic nominee
- Bill Redpath for Senate, Libertarian nominee