Venezuelan presidential crisis

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Venezuelan presidential crisis
Part of the crisis in Venezuela
Juan Guaidó (left) and Nicolás Maduro (right)
Date10 January 2019 (2019-01-10) – 5 January 2023 (2023-01-05) (3 years, 11 months and 26 days)
Location
Caused by
Goals
  • End of Maduro's government
  • Transition government
  • Free and fair presidential elections
Methods
international sanctions
Resulted inStatus quo
  • Three of the four main opposition parties dissolved Guaidó's interim government in late 2022, stating that the interim government had failed to achieve the goals it had set
  • The
    Chavism
    emerges victorious despite international pressure and Nicolas Maduro seeks another re-election in 2024
Parties

Venezuela Transitional government


  • Supported by around 50 countries

Venezuela Incumbent government


  • Supported by around 30 countries
Lead figures

The Venezuelan presidential crisis was a political crisis concerning the leadership and the legitimate president of Venezuela between 2019 and 2023, with the nation and the world divided in support for Nicolás Maduro or Juan Guaidó.

Venezuelan Constitution.[2][5] A week later, the Supreme Tribunal of Justice declared that the presidency of the National Assembly was the "usurper" of authority and declared the body to be unconstitutional.[2] Minutes after Maduro took the oath as president, the Organization of American States (OAS) approved a resolution in a special session of its Permanent Council declaring Maduro's presidency illegitimate and urging new elections.[6] Special meetings of the OAS on 24 January and in the United Nations Security Council on 26 January were held but no consensus was reached. Secretary-General of the United Nations António Guterres called for dialogue.[7] During the 49th General Assembly of the Organization of American States on 27 June, Guaidó's presidency was recognized by the organization.[8] Guaidó and the National Assembly declared he was acting president and swore himself in on 23 January.[4]

At his peak, Guaidó was

lift all sanctions if Maduro agreed to organize elections that did not include himself.[23] Guaidó accepted the proposal,[24] while Venezuela's foreign minister, Jorge Arreaza, rejected it.[25]

By January 2020, efforts led by Guaidó to create a transitional government had been unsuccessful and Maduro continued to control Venezuela's state institutions.

In December 2022, three of the four main opposition political parties (

next Venezuelan presidential election scheduled for 2024,[33][34] stating that the interim government had failed to achieve the goals it had set.[35]

Background

Since 2010, Venezuela has been suffering a socioeconomic crisis under Nicolás Maduro and briefly under his predecessor Hugo Chávez, as rampant crime, hyperinflation and shortages as a result of sanctions, diminish the quality of life.[36][37] Javier Corrales stated in a 2020 Journal of Democracy that Maduro "presided over one of the most devastating national economic crises seen anywhere in modern times."[38] As a result of discontent with the government, the opposition was elected to hold the majority in the National Assembly for the first time since 1999 following the 2015 parliamentary election.[39] After the election, the lame duck National Assembly consisting of Bolivarian officials filled the Supreme Tribunal of Justice, the highest court in Venezuela, with Maduro allies.[39][40] The tribunal stripped three opposition lawmakers of their National Assembly seats in early 2016, citing alleged "irregularities" in their elections, thereby preventing an opposition supermajority which would have been able to challenge President Maduro.[39]

In January 2016, the National Assembly declared a "health humanitarian crisis" given the "serious shortage of medicines, medical supplies and deterioration of humanitarian infrastructure", asking Maduro's government to "guarantee immediate access to the list of essential medicines that are basic and indispensable and that must be accessible at all times."[41]

External videos
video icon Human Rights Watch multimedia report regarding the 2017 protests on
YouTube

The tribunal approved several actions by Maduro and granted him more powers in 2017.

2017 Constituent National Assembly (ANC).[46][47] The Democratic Unity Roundtable, the main opposition to the incumbent ruling party, boycotted the election, saying that the ANC was "a trick to keep [the incumbent ruling party] in power."[48] Since the opposition did not participate in the election, the Great Patriotic Pole coalition and its supporters, including the incumbent United Socialist Party of Venezuela, won all seats in the assembly by default.[49] On 8 August 2017, the ANC declared itself to be the government branch with supreme power in Venezuela, banning the opposition-led National Assembly from performing actions that would interfere with the assembly while continuing to pass measures in "support and solidarity" with President Maduro, effectively stripping the National Assembly of all its powers.[50]

Maduro disavowed the National Assembly in 2017.[51][52] As of 2018, some considered the National Assembly the only "legitimate" institution left in the country[a] and human rights organizations said there were no independent institutional checks on presidential power.[b]

2018 election and calls for transitional government

Presidents of Cuba, Bolivia and El Salvador greet Maduro at Maduro's second inauguration on 10 January 2019

In February 2018, Maduro called for presidential elections four months before the prescribed date.[66] He was declared the winner in May 2018 after multiple major opposition parties were banned from participating, among other irregularities; many said the elections were invalid.[67] Some politicians both internally and internationally said Maduro was not legitimately elected[68] and considered him an ineffective dictator.[69] In the months leading up to his 10 January 2019 inauguration, Maduro was pressured to step down by nations and bodies including the Lima Group (excluding Mexico), the United States and the OAS; this pressure was increased after the new National Assembly of Venezuela was sworn in on 5 January 2019.[70][71] Between the May 2018 presidential election and Maduro's inauguration, there were calls to establish a transitional government.[72][73]

Signs of impending crisis showed when a Supreme Tribunal Justice and Electoral Justice seen as close to Maduro defected to the United States just a few days before the 10 January 2019 second inauguration of Nicolás Maduro. The justice, Christian Zerpa [es], said that Maduro was "incompetent" and "illegitimate".[70][71][74] Minutes after Maduro took the oath as president of Venezuela, the OAS approved a resolution in a special session of its Permanent Council declaring Maduro's presidency illegitimate and urging new elections.[6] Maduro's election was supported by Turkey, Russia, China, and the Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of Our America (ALBA).[75][76]

In December 2018, Guaidó had traveled to Washington, D.C., met with OAS Secretary General

John Bolton and legislators Mario Díaz-Balart and Marco Rubio. Venezuelans Carlos Vecchio, Julio Borges and Gustavo Tarre were consulted and the Trump administration decision to back Guaidó formed on 22 January, according to El País. Díaz-Balart said that the decision was the result of two years of planning.[77]

Justification for the challenge

A June 2018 video with

The Venezuelan opposition says its actions are based on the 1999 Constitution of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, specifically Articles 233, 333 and 350.[78]

The first paragraph of Article 233 states that "when the president-elect is absolutely absent before taking office, a new election shall take place [...] And while the president is elected and takes office, the interim president shall be the president of the National Assembly."[79][c][d]

Article 333 calls for citizens to restore and enforce the Constitution if it is not followed.[79][c] Article 350 calls for citizens to "disown any regime, legislation or authority that violates democratic values, principles and guarantees or encroaches upon human rights."[81][82][c]

Article 233 was invoked after the death of Hugo Chávez in 2013, which took place soon after his inauguration, and extraordinary elections were called within thirty days.[83][84] Invoked by the National Assembly, Guaidó was declared acting president until elections could be held; Diego A. Zambrano, an assistant professor of law at Stanford Law School, says that "Venezuelan lawyers disagree on the best reading of this provision. Some argue Guaidó can serve longer if the electoral process is scheduled within a reasonable time."[85] The National Assembly announced that it will designate a committee to appoint a new National Electoral Council, in anticipation of free elections.[86]

2019 events

Inauguration of Maduro

In January 2019, Leopoldo López's Popular Will party attained the leadership of the National Assembly of Venezuela according to a rotation agreement made by opposition parties, naming Juan Guaidó as president of the legislative body.[87]

Juan Guaidó surrounded by members of the opposition during the public assembly on 11 January 2019

Guaidó began motions to form a

Supreme Court Justice and Electoral Justice seen as close to Maduro defected to the United States just a few days before the 10 January 2019 second inauguration of Nicolás Maduro. The justice, Christian Zerpa [es], said that Maduro was "incompetent" and "illegitimate".[90][91][74] Minutes after Maduro took the oath as president of Venezuela, the OAS approved a resolution in a special session of its Permanent Council declaring Maduro's presidency illegitimate and urging new elections.[92] Maduro's election was supported by Turkey, Russia, China, and the Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of Our America (ALBA).[76]

Guaidó announced a public assembly, referred to as an open cabildo, on 11 January, a rally in the streets of Caracas, where Guaidó spoke on behalf of the National Assembly saying that the country had fallen into a de facto dictatorship and had no leader.[93][94] Guaidó said that the National Assembly would "take the responsibility that touches us".[94] Leaders of other political parties, trade unions, women, and students also spoke at the rally.[95][non-primary source needed] The opposition considered assuming the powers of the executive branch legitimate based on constitutional processes; The National Assembly specifically invoked Articles 233, 333, and 350 of the Constitution.[96][95] Guaidó announced nationwide protests to be held on 23 January—the same day as the removal of Marcos Pérez Jiménez in 1958—using a slogan chant of ¡Sí se puede!.[96][97] The National Assembly worked with the coalition Frente Amplio Venezuela Libre to create a plan for the demonstrations, organizing a unified national force.[98] On 11 January, plans to offer incentives for the armed forces to disavow Maduro were announced.[99]

Guaidó declared acting president

Agreement approved by the National Assembly to declare the usurpation of the presidency by Nicolás Maduro on 15 January 2019.

During Guaidó's speech, he said he was "willing to assume command ... only possible with the help of Venezuelans".[5] Following Guaidó's speech, the National Assembly released a press statement saying that Guaidó had assumed the role of acting president. The Assembly retracted the statement later published another clarifying Guaidó's position as "willing to assume command ... only possible with the help of Venezuelans".[5]

Maduro's response was to call the opposition a group of "little boys", describing Guaidó as "immature". The Minister for Prison Services, Iris Varela, threatened that she had picked out a prison cell for Guaidó and asked him to be quick in naming his cabinet so she could prepare prison cells for them as well.[100]

The president of the Supreme Tribunal of Justice of Venezuela in exile, based in Panama, wrote to Guaidó, requesting him to become acting president of Venezuela.[101] OAS Secretary-General Luis Almagro was the first to give international official support to Guaidó's claim, tweeting "We welcome the assumption of Juan Guaidó as interim president of Venezuela in accordance with Article 233 of the Political Constitution. You have our support, that of the international community and of the people of Venezuela."[96] Later that day, Brazil and Colombia gave their support to Guaidó as acting president of Venezuela.[102]

Guaidó briefly detained, plans continue

Guaidó was detained on 13 January by the Bolivarian Intelligence Service (SEBIN)[103] and released 45 minutes later.[104] The SEBIN agents who intercepted his car and took him into custody were fired.[105][106] The Information Minister, Jorge Rodríguez, said the agents did not have instructions and the arrest was orchestrated by Guaidó as a "media stunt" to gain popularity; BBC News correspondents said that it appeared to be a genuine ambush to send a message to the opposition.[105] Almagro condemned the arrest, which he called a "kidnapping", while Pompeo referred to it as an "arbitrary detention".[107] After his detention, Guaidó said that Rodríguez's admission that the SEBIN agents acted independently showed that the government had lost control of its security forces; he called Miraflores (the presidential palace) "desperate",[105][107] and stated: "There is one legitimate president of the National Assembly and of all Venezuela."[108]

On 15 January 2019, the National Assembly approved legislation to work with dozens of foreign countries to request that these nations freeze Maduro administration bank accounts.[109] Guaidó wrote a 15 January 2019 opinion piece in The Washington Post entitled "Maduro is a usurper. It's time to restore democracy in Venezuela"; he outlined Venezuela's erosion of democracy and his reasoning for the need to replace Maduro on an interim basis according to Venezuela's constitution.[110]

On 21 January, over two dozen National Guardsmen participated in a mutiny against Maduro with the assistance of residents in the area during the early morning hours. Government forces repressed the protestors tear gas and the officers were later captured.[111][112] During the night, over thirty communities in Caracas and surrounding areas participated in strong protests against the Maduro government.[113] The strongest protests occurred in San José de Cotiza, where the rebel National Guardsmen were arrested, with demonstrations spreading throughout nearby communities, with cacerolazos heard throughout Caracas.[113] One woman who was confused for a protester was killed in San José de Cotiza by members of a colectivo, who stole her phone.[114] On 22 January, Vice President Mike Pence called Guaidó personally and assured him that the United States would support his declaration.[115]

Guaidó declares himself acting president

23 January 2019 march in Caracas

On 23 January, Guaidó swore to serve as acting president.[4] On that morning, Guaidó tweeted, "The world's eyes are on our homeland today."[116][117] On that day, millions of Venezuelans[118] demonstrated across the country and world in support of Guaidó,[119][120] with a few hundred supporting Maduro outside Miraflores.[121][122] At one end of the blocked street was a stage where Guaidó spoke and took an oath to serve as interim president.[123][124][125] Minutes after his speech, the United States announced that it recognized Guaidó as interim president while presidents Iván Duque of Colombia and Jair Bolsonaro of Brazil, beside deputy Canadian prime minister Chrystia Freeland, announced at the World Economic Forum that they too recognized him.[115]

The Venezuelan National Guard used tear gas on gathering crowds at other locations,[123] and blocked protesters from arriving.[116] Some protests grew violent,[126] and at least 13 people were killed.[127] Michelle Bachelet of the United Nations requested a UN investigation into the security forces' use of violence.[128]

Mike Pence meets with Carlos Vecchio, Julio Borges, and other Washington-based Venezuelan representatives on 29 January 2019

Guaidó began to appoint individuals in late January to serve as aides or diplomats, including Carlos Vecchio as the Guaidó administration's diplomatic envoy to the US,[129] Gustavo Tarre to the OAS,[130] and Julio Borges to represent Venezuela in the Lima Group.[131] He announced that the National Assembly had approved a commission to implement a plan for the reconstruction of Venezuela,[132][133] called Plan País (Plan for the Country),[134] and he offered an Amnesty law, approved by the National Assembly, for military personnel and authorities who help to "restore constitutional order".[135][136] The Statute Governing the Transition to Democracy was approved by the National Assembly on 5 February.[137]

As of July 2019, the National Assembly had approved Juan Guaidó's appointment has named 37 ambassadors and foreign representatives to international organizations and nations abroad.[138][139][140][141]

Organization/country Official
 OAS
Gustavo Tarre Briceño
Inter-American Development Bank Alejandro Plaz[e]
Lima Group Julio Borges
 Andorra Carmen Alguindingue
 Argentina Elisa Trotta Gamus (2019–2020)[144]
 Australia Alejandro Martínez
 Belgium Mary Ponte [es]
 Brasil María Teresa Belandria
 Bulgaria Estefanía Meléndez [es]
 Canada Orlando Viera Blanco
 Chile Guarequena Gutiérrez [es]
 Colombia Vacant[f]
 Costa Rica María Faría
 Czech Republic Vacant[e]
 Denmark Enrique Ser Horst
 Dominican Republic Eusebio Carlino
 Ecuador René de Sola
 France Isadora Zubillaga
 Germany Otto Gebauer
 Greece Eduardo Fernando Massieu
 Guatemala María Teresa Romero [es]
 Honduras Claudio Sandoval
 Hungary Enrique Alvarado
 Israel Pynchas Brener
 Luxembourg Angelina Jaffe
 Malta Felipe Zoghbi
 Morocco José Ignacio Guédez
 Netherlands Gloria Notaro
 Panama Fabiola Zavarce
 Paraguay David Olsen
 Peru Carlos Scull
 Poland Ana Medina
 Portugal José Rafael Cotas
 Romania Memo Mazzone
 Spain Antonio Ecarri Bolívar [es]
 Sweden León Poblete
  Switzerland María Alejandra Aristeguieta [es]
 United Kingdom Vanessa Neumann
 United States Carlos Vecchio

Maduro response

Maduro accused the United States of backing a coup and said he would cut ties with them.[147] He said Guaidó's actions were part of a "well-written script from Washington" to create a puppet state of the United States,[148] and appealed to the American people in a 31 January video, asking them not to "convert Venezuela into another Vietnam".[149]

Maduro asked for dialogue with Guaidó, saying "if I have to go meet this boy in the Pico Humboldt at three in the morning I am going, [...] if I have to go naked, I am going, [I believe] that today, sooner rather than later, the way is open for a reasonable, sincere dialogue".[150] He stated he would not leave the presidential office, saying that he was elected in compliance with the Venezuelan constitution.[151] With the two giving speeches to supporters at the same time, Guaidó replied to Maduro's call for dialogue, saying he would not initiate diplomatic talks with Maduro because he believed it would be a farce and fake diplomacy that could not achieve anything.[152]

On 18 February, Maduro's government expelled a group of Members of the European Parliament that planned to meet Guaidó.[153] The expulsion was condemned by Guaidó as well as Pablo Casado, president of the Spanish People's Party, and the Colombian government.[154] Maduro's Foreign Minister Jorge Arreaza defended the expulsions,[155] saying that the constitutional government of Venezuela "will not allow the European extreme right to disturb the peace and stability of the country with another of its gross interventionist actions."[156]

Humanitarian aid crisis

Venezuelan presidential crisis is located in Venezuela
Cúcuta
Colombia Cúcuta
Pacaraima
Brazil Pacaraima
Curaçao
Kingdom of the Netherlands Curaçao
Location of the proposed entry points for humanitarian aid.

National Assembly of Venezuela declared a humanitarian crisis, asking Maduro's government to provide access to essential medicines and medical supplies.[41] Before the presidential crisis, the Maduro government denied several offers of aid, stating that there was not a humanitarian crisis and that such claims were used to justify foreign intervention.[158] Maduro's refusal of aid worsened the effects of Venezuela's crisis.[158] During the presidential crisis, Maduro initially refused aid, stating that Venezuela is not a country of "beggars".[159]

Guaidó made bringing humanitarian aid to the country a priority.

CIA and exiled Venezuelan politician Julio Borges to oust Maduro.[162] Humanitarian aid intended for Venezuela was also stockpiled on the Brazilian border,[163] and two indigenous Pemon people were killed as they attempted to block military vehicles from entering the area, when members of armed forces loyal to Maduro fired upon them with live ammunition.[164][165][166]

Guaidó issued an ultimatum to the Venezuelan Armed Forces, stating that humanitarian aid would enter Venezuela on 23 February and that the armed forces "will have to decide if it will be on the side of the Venezuelans and the Constitution or the usurper".[167] Guaidó defied the restriction imposed by the Maduro administration on him leaving Venezuela, secretly crossed the border,[168] saying that with the help of the Venezuelan military,[169] and appeared at the Venezuela Aid Live concert in Cúcuta, Colombia on 22 February,[170] also to be present for the planned delivery of humanitarian aid.[169][171] Testing Maduro's authority, he was met by presidents Iván Duque of Colombia,[170][172] Sebastián Piñera from Chile,[173] and Mario Abdo Benítez from Paraguay,[174] as well as the OAS Secretary-General Luis Almagro.[172]

On 23 February, trucks with humanitarian aid attempted to enter Venezuela from Brazil and Colombia;[175][176] the attempts failed, with only one truck able to deliver aid.[177] At the Colombia–Venezuela border, the caravans were tear-gassed or shot at with rubber bullets by Venezuelan personnel.[178][179] The National Guard repressed demonstrations on the Brazilian border and colectivos attacked protesters near the Colombian border,[180][181] leaving at least four dead,[182][183] and more than 285 injured.[184]

Lima Group meeting and Latin American tour

Guaidó, Colombia president Duque, and US vice president Pence during the February 2019 Lima Group meeting in Colombia

Guaidó traveled from Cúcuta to Bogotá for a 24 February meeting with US Vice President Mike Pence,[185][186] and a 25 February meeting of the Lima Group.[187][188] The group urged the International Criminal Court to pursue charges of crimes against humanity for the Maduro administration's use of violence against civilians and blockade of humanitarian aid.[189][190]

Pence did not rule out the use of US military force.[187] The Venezuelan government responded saying that Pence was trying to order others to take the country's assets, and saying that its basic rights were being disregarded in a campaign to unseat Maduro.[188] Brazil's vice president said it would not permit its territory to be used to invade Venezuela,[191] and the European Union cautioned against the use of military force.[188][192] The Lima Group rejected the use of force as well.[189] The US FAA warned pilots not to fly below 26,000 feet over Venezuela,[193] and US military officials said they had flown reconnaissance flights off the coast of Venezuela to gather classified intelligence about Maduro.[194]

From Bogotá, Guaidó embarked on a regional tour to meet with the presidents of Brazil, Paraguay, Argentina, and Ecuador,[195] to discuss ways to rebuild Venezuela and defeat Maduro.[196] Guaidó's trip was approved by Venezuela's National Assembly, as required by the Constitution of Venezuela,[197] but he faced the possibility of being imprisoned when returning to Venezuela because of the travel restriction placed upon him by the Maduro administration.[195][198] He re-entered Venezuela on 4 March, via Simón Bolívar International Airport in Maiquetía, and was received at the airport by diplomats[g] and in Caracas by a crowd of supporters.[199][200] German ambassador Daniel Kriener was accused of interference in internal affairs and expelled from Venezuela because of his role in helping Guaidó re-enter.[199][201]

Blackouts

Guri Dam supplies 80% of Venezuela's electrical power.[202]

In March 2019, Venezuela experienced a near total electrical blackout, and lost 150,000 barrels per day in crude oil production during the blackout.[203][204] Full recovery of oil production was expected to take months,[205] but by April, Venezuela's exports were steady at a million barrels daily, "partially due to inventory drains".[206]

Experts and state-run Corpoelec (Corporación Eléctrica Nacional) sources attributed the electricity shortages to lack of maintenance, underinvestment, corruption and to a lack of technical expertise in the country resulting from a brain drain;[207][208][209] Nicolás Maduro's administration attributes them to sabotage.[210][211][212] Guaidó said that Venezuela's largest-ever power outage was "the product of the inefficiency, the incapability, the corruption of a regime that doesn't care about the lives of Venezuelans",[213] Maduro's Attorney General, Tarek William Saab, called for an investigation of Guaidó, alleging that he had "sabotaged" the electric sector.[213]

While Maduro visited hydroelectric facilities in Ciudad Guayana on 16 March, promising to restructure the state-run power company Corpoelec, his Vice President Delcy Rodríguez announced that Maduro would restructure his administration, asking the "entire executive Cabinet to put their roles up for review".[214] Guaidó announced he would embark on a tour of the country beginning 16 March, to organize committees for Operation Freedom with the goal to claim the presidential residence, Miraflores Palace.[215] From the first rally in Carabobo state, he said, "We will be in each state of Venezuela and for each state we have visited the responsibility will be yours, the leaders, the united, [to] organize ourselves in freedom commands."[215]

United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) commissioner Michelle Bachelet's office sent a five-person delegation to Venezuela in March.[216][217] On 20 March, Bachelet delivered a preliminary oral report before the UN Human Rights Council,[218][219] in which she outlined a "devastating and deteriorating" human rights situation in Venezuela, expressed concern that sanctions would worsen the situation, and called on authorities to show a true commitment to recognizing and resolving the situation.[220]

Elvis Amoroso, Maduro's comptroller, alleged in March that Guaidó had not explained how he paid for his February 2019 Latin American trip,[221] and said Guaidó would be barred from running for public office for fifteen years.[222][223] The comptroller general is not a judicial body; according to constitutional lawyer José Vicente Haro, the Inter-American Court of Human Rights ruled in 2011 that an administrative body cannot disallow a public servant from running. Constitutional law expert Juan Manuel Raffalli stated that Article 65 of Venezuela's Constitution provides that such determinations may only be made by criminal courts, after judgment of criminal activity.[224]

Red Cross aid effort

U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Kimberly Breier, Juan Guaidó's wife Fabiana Rosales, U.S. Special Representative for Venezuela Elliott Abrams, and Venezuelan Ambassador to the U.S. Carlos Vecchio, and diplomat in Washington, D.C., on 27 March 2019

In March, Francesco Rocca, president of the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, announced that the Red Cross was preparing to bring humanitarian aid to the country in April to help ease both the chronic hunger and the medical crisis.[225] The Wall Street Journal said that the acceptance of humanitarian shipments by Maduro was his first acknowledgement that Venezuela is "suffering from an economic collapse."[226][227] After a 9 April meeting with the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC),[228] Maduro indicated for the first time that he was prepared to accept international aid.[229] Guaidó called on Venezuelans to "stay vigilant to make sure incoming aid is not diverted for 'corrupt' purposes".[227]

Following the joint report from Human Rights Watch and Johns Hopkins in April 2019, increasing announcements from the United Nations about the scale of the humanitarian crisis, and the softening of Maduro's position on receiving aid, the ICRC tripled its budget for aid to Venezuela.[230] The first Red Cross delivery of supplies for hospitals arrived on 16 April, offering an encouraging sign that the Maduro administration would allow more aid to enter.[231] According to The New York Times, "armed pro-government paramilitaries" fired weapons to disrupt the first Red Cross delivery, and officials associated with Maduro's party told the Red Cross to leave.[232]

According to the Associated Press, having long denied that there was a humanitarian crisis in Venezuela, Maduro positioned the delivery "as a necessary measure to confront punishing U.S. economic sanctions." Having "rallied the international community", Guaidó "quickly claimed credit for the effort."[233]

Revocation of Guaidó's parliamentary immunity

Chief justice Maikel Moreno asked that the Constituent Assembly (ANC), controlled by Maduro loyalists, remove Guaidó's parliamentary immunity as president of the National Assembly,[234][235] moving the Maduro administration a step closer towards prosecuting Guaidó.[236] Guaidó supporters disagree that the Maduro-backed institutions have the authority to ban Guaidó from leaving the country and consider acts of the ANC "null and void".[234] The Venezuelan Constitution provides that only the National Assembly can bring the president to trial by approving the legal proceeding in a "merit hearing".[234] On 2 April, after the ANC voted to remove his parliamentary immunity, Guaidó promised to continue fighting "Maduro's 'cowardly, miserable and murderous' regime."[237]

Military uprising attempt

Juan Guaidó speaks to supporters on 30 April 2019

On 19 April, Guaidó called for a "definite end of the usurpation" and the "largest march in history" on 1 May.

La Carlota Air Force Base in Caracas, announced an uprising,[241] stating that this was the final phase of "Operation Freedom".[242] Though Guaidó said his forces held La Carlota, when supporters approached the base, Guaidó and a few dozen supporters stayed in a nearby overpass outside.[243]

Maduro was not seen during the day,[244] but he appeared with his Defense Minister Padrino on that evening's televised broadcast,[245] and announced he would replace Manuel Cristopher Figuera, Director General of the Bolivarian Intelligence Service (SEBIN), who had broken with Maduro during the uprising,[246] saying it was time to "rebuild the country"[246] and that "scoundrels were plundering the country."[247] The United States said Maduro had prepared to leave Venezuela that morning, but Russia and Cuba helped convince him to stay.[244][248][249] Both Russia and Maduro denied that he had plans to leave Venezuela.[250]

Guaidó's supporters were forced to retreat by security forces using tear gas. Colectivos fired on protesters with live ammunition, and one protester was shot in the head and killed.[251][252] Human Rights Watch said it believed that "security forces fired shotgun pellets at demonstrators and journalists."[253] By the end of the day, one protester had died,[251] and López was at the Spanish embassy,[254] while about 25 military personnel received asylum in the Panamanian embassy in Caracas.[243][255]

Guaidó acknowledged he had received insufficient military backing,[253] but added that "Maduro did not have the support nor the respect of the Armed Forces"[256] and called for strikes beginning on 2 May, with the aim of a general strike later in the month.[252] Russia and the US each charged the other with interference in another country's affairs.[253]

Negotiations

Following the failed military uprising, momentum surrounding Guaidó had subsided and fewer supporters gathered at demonstrations, with Guaidó resorting to negotiations with Maduro.[257] Guaidó's deputy chief Rafael Del Rosario acknowledged that the debacle on 30 April made the prospect of removing Maduro more difficult.[257] Beginning negotiations was a setback for Guaidó's movement,[257][258] with the Associated Press stating, "Participation in the mediation effort is a reversal for the opposition, which has accused Maduro of using negotiations between 2016 and 2018 to play for time".[258] According to the New York Times, years of difficulties has made Maduro "adept at managing, if not solving, cascading crises",[257] while Phil Gunson of the International Crisis Group stated that despite facing issues, Maduro "must be very pleased that he is now in the driving seat", with the ability to use the actions of Guaidó and international actors for propaganda purposes.[259] By May 2019, Trump had decided that Guaidó was weak; Bolton attributed a change of Trump's position to a comment made by President of Russia Vladimir Putin to Trump in a phone call that Guaidó's claim to the presidency would be the equivalent of Hillary Clinton declaring herself president following the 2016 United States presidential election.[243]

Representatives of Guaidó and Maduro began mediation with the assistance of the Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution (NOREF), with Jorge Rodríguez and Héctor Rodríguez serving as representatives for Maduro while Gerardo Blyde [es] and Stalin González were representatives for Guaidó.[258][260] Guaidó confirmed that there was an envoy in Norway, but assured that the opposition would not take part in "any kind of false negotiation" and that talks must lead to Maduro's resignation, a transitional administration and free and fair elections.[258][260]

In July 2019, Norway's commission carried out a third round of discussions between Guaidó's and Maduro's representatives in Barbados.[261] By August 2019, the Maduro administration decided to halt talks with Guaidó's commission after Trump administration imposed new additional sanctions on Venezuela, ordering a freeze on all Venezuelan government assets in the United States and barred transactions with US citizens and companies.[262]

Second visit of the OHCHR

Ahead of a three-week session of the

United Nations High Commissioner of Human Rights visited Venezuela.[266]

The final published report addressed the extrajudicial executions, torture,

forced disappearances and other human rights violations reportedly committed by Venezuelan security forces in the recent years.[268] Bachelet expressed her concerns for the "shockingly high" number of extrajudicial killings and urged for the dissolution of the Special Action Forces (FAES).[269] According to the report, 1,569 cases of executions as consequence as a result of "resistance to authority" were registered by the Venezuelan authorities from 1 January to 19 March.[269] Other 52 deaths that occurred during 2019 protests were attributed to colectivos.[270] The report also details how the Venezuelan government "aimed at neutralising, repressing and criminalising political opponents and people critical of the government" since 2016.[269]

Guaidó supported the investigation, stating "the systematic violation of human rights, the repression, the torture... is clearly identified in the (UN) report".[268] Maduro administration described the report as a "biased vision" and demanded it be "corrected".[271] In the words of his foreign minister, "It's a text lacking in scientific rigor, with serious errors in methodology and which seems like a carbon copy of previous reports".[271] Maduro would later state that the OHCHR "has declared itself an enemy" to Maduro and the Bolivarian Revolution.[272]

Speaking to reporters after the UN Human Rights Council, Bachelet announced the release of 22 Venezuelan prisoners, including 20 students, judge

Maria Lourdes Afiuni, in her second house arrest since March, and journalist Braulio Jatar, arrested in 2016.[273] Bachelet welcomed the conditional releases and the acceptance of the two officers delegation as "the beginning of positive engagement on the country's many human rights issues".[273]

In October 2019, Venezuela competed for one of the two seats to the United Nations Human Rights Council, along with Brazil and Costa Rica, and was elected with 105 votes in a secret ballot by the 193-member United Nations General Assembly. Brazil was re-elected with 153 votes, while Costa Rica was not having garnered 96 votes and entering the month of the election as competition to Venezuela. The United States, Lima Group and human rights groups lobbied against Venezuela's election.[274]

On 16 September 2020, the United Nations accused the Maduro government of crimes against humanity.[275]

Torture and death of Acosta Arévalo

On 26 June, Maduro said that his government had arrested several defecting military, thus foiling a plot to remove him from power and to assassinate him, his wife and Diosdado Cabello.[276][277] The alleged plan also included the rescue of Raúl Baduel, a retired general imprisoned for a second time in 2017, to install him as president.[277][276] Maduro accused Israel, Colombia, Chile and the United States of involvement in the plot.[277][278] Jorge Rodríguez said that the foiled plan involved the bombing of a government building, the seizing of La Carlota air base, and a bank robbery.[276] Guaidó dismissed the allegations as lies;[277] opposition members have frequently accused Maduro of coercion of arrested suspects and fabrication of plots for political gain.[277][279]

In the wake of the coup allegations, an alleged kidnapping attempt directed at members of Guaidó's entourage occurred on a Caracas highway.

DGCIM, but were not "hostile".[281][279]

Navy captain Rafael Acosta Arévalo, who had been arrested on charges related to the alleged foiled coup attempt and transferred to a military hospital, died during detention on 28 June.[283] Maduro administration did not provide a cause of death but announced an investigation on the matter.[284] Acosta Arevalo's wife, human rights advocates, Juan Guaidó and the US Department of State accused Maduro's administration of torturing the captain to death.[283] The Lima Group and the European Union called for an independent investigation.[285] The preliminary autopsy determined that Acosta Arévalo's cause of death was "severe cerebral edema [brain swelling] caused by acute respiratory failure caused by a pulmonary embolism caused by rhabdomyolysis [a potentially life-threatening breakdown of muscle fibers] by multiple trauma".[286]

Operación Alacrán

The conditions for any political change in 2020 are getting ever more remote.

John Magdaleno, Venezuelan consultant[9]

An investigation led by

United States Treasury and others to a Colombian man named Carlos Lizcano, who authorities were investigating over his possible links to Alex Saab, a Colombian businessman associated with the food distribution program and under United States sanctions. According to Armando.info, the lawmakers wrote the letters despite being aware of evidence that tied Lizcano to Saab.[28] Guaidó condemned the actions of the nine legislators, suspending them from their positions and stating that it was "unacceptable to use a state institution to attempt to whitewash the reputation of thieves".[28] The scandal damaged Guaidó's reputation among his supporters in Venezuela, with some members of the opposition beginning to call for new leadership, according to analysts and those involved.[28]

The Maduro government increased its pressure by "deploying bribes, intimidation and repression" attempting to divide the opposition to maintain power.[287]

Dollarization

Following increased sanctions throughout 2019, the Maduro government abandoned policies established by Chávez such as price and currency controls.[9] In a November 2019 interview with José Vicente Rangel, President Maduro described dollarization as an "escape valve" that helps the recovery of the country, the spread of productive forces in the country and the economy. However, Maduro said that the Venezuelan bolívar would still remain as the national currency.[288] The Economist wrote that Venezuela had also obtained "extra money from selling gold, both from illegal mines and from its reserves, and narcotics".[9] Its article continued to explain that the improving economy led to more difficulties for Guaidó as Venezuelans who had a better situation were less likely to protest against Maduro.[9]

2020 events

Juan Guaidó trying to enter the National Assembly of Venezuela before the police blockade on 5 January 2020.
Officers of the Venezuelan National Guard blocking off access to the Palacio Federal Legislativo on 5 January 2020.

Internal parliamentary election disrupted

The

El Nacional newspaper, where 100 of the 167 deputies voted to re-elect Guaidó as president of the parliament.[290]

Guaidó was sworn in a session on 7 January after forcing his way in through police barricades. On the same day, Parra reiterated his claim to the parliament's presidency.[291]

Russia is the only foreign government to have officially recognized Luis Parra's investiture, while the European Union, the United States, Canada, and most Latin American countries recognized Guaidó's re-election.[292]

Guaidó second international tour

On 19 January, Guaidó once again exited Venezuela and arrived in Colombia, planning to meet with Mike Pompeo, as well as traveling to Europe and the United States later, defying his exit prohibition for a second time.[293] Guaidó travelled to Brussels, Belgium, and on 22 January met with Margaritis Schinas, Vice-President of the European Commission, and Josep Borrell, High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs.[294] On 23 January, Guaidó participated in the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.[295] During his trip in Europe, Guaidó also met with Boris Johnson, Emmanuel Macron,[296] and Angela Merkel.[297] Afterwards, Guaidó travelled to Canada and met with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.[298] On February 4, he was invited to President Donald Trump's 2020 State of the Union address to Congress, and was applauded by the crowd, which was composed of members of both Democratic and Republican parties.[299]

Diosdado Cabello declared that "nothing" would happen to Guaidó when he returned to Venezuela.[300] After meeting with Donald Trump in the White House, Constituent Assembly member Pedro Carreño said that if Guaidó wanted to come back as "commander-in-chief", "we will receive him with this peinilla", hitting his podium with a machete.[301] Guaidó was allowed back into Venezuela by officials through Simón Bolívar International Airport on 12 February, despite the travel ban imposed by Maduro's government.[302]

Security forces installed an anti-aircraft gun in the Caracas-La Guaira highway and blocked the highway;[303] opposition deputies had to reach the airport on foot to receive Guaidó. Due to the block, several ambassadors were also unable to go to the airport. Upon Guaidó's arrival at the Simón Bolívar International Airport, around two hundred Maduro supporters surrounded and jostled Guaidó, his wife Fabiana Rosales and several opposition deputies that waited for him at the airport. Some journalists were also attacked and had their equipment stolen by the group. Tens of military and police officials were present and did not intervene to prevent the attack. Several passengers declared to local outlets that Maduro's administration sent a group of pro-government activists to insult and harass the opposition members with impunity, including employees of the recently sanctioned Conviasa airline.[304] The Inter American Press Association condemned the attacks on the journalists.[305]

The following day, the opposition and relatives denounced that Guaidó's uncle, Juan José Márquez, had been missing for 24 hours after receiving his nephew in the airport, blaming Maduro's government. His wife declared that Márquez was detained in the migration area and that his whereabouts were unknown.

Directorate General of Military Counterintelligence, despite him being a civilian.[307]

Barquisimeto shooting

On 29 February Juan Guaidó mobilized a march against the government of Nicolás Maduro in the Juan de Villegas parish, Barquisimeto, Lara state. The day of the march, pro-government colectivos shot at Guaidó, who was in a van at the time of the shooting. Bolivarian National Intelligence Service agents were also reported of having participated in the attack.[308] Guaidó's vehicle received nine gunshots and the shooting left a total of ten wounded.[308][309]

COVID-19 pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic was confirmed to have spread to Venezuela on 13 March, when the Maduro administration announced the first two cases.[310] On 16 March, Maduro reversed the country's official position against the International Monetary Fund (IMF), asking the institution for US$5 billion to combat the pandemic,[311] a first during Maduro's presidency, being a critic of the institution.[312][313] The IMF rejected the deal as it was not clear, among its member states, on who it recognizes as Venezuela's president.[314] According to a report by Bloomberg, the Maduro administration also tried to request aid of $1 billion from the IMF after the first request was denied.[315] Guaidó called for the creation of a "national emergency government", not led by Maduro, on 28 March. According to Guaidó, a loan of US$1.2 billion was ready to be given in support of a power-sharing coalition between pro-Maduro officials, the military and the opposition in order to fight the pandemic in Venezuela. If accepted, the money would go to assist families affected by the disease and its economic consequences.[316]

US Department of Justice indictment

The "Corrupt Venezuelan Regime" as defined by the United States Department of Justice

On 26 March, the

narco-terrorism.[317] Maduro had been offering to hold talks with the opposition about handling the outbreak in the country shortly before the indictment and then called them off.[318][319][320][321]

After being indicted, retired general Clíver Alcalá in Colombia published a video claiming responsibility for a stockpile of weapons and military equipment seized in Colombia.[322] According to Alcalá, he had made a contract with Guaidó and "American advisers" in order to buy weapons to remove Maduro.[322] Alcalá did not present any evidence[322] and Guaidó rejected the allegations.[323] After wishing farewell to his family, Alcalá surrendered to US authorities on 27 March.[324]

Transitional government proposals

On 31 March, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said that sanctions did not apply to humanitarian aid during the

lift all sanctions if Maduro agreed to organize elections that did not include himself in a period of six to twelve months. Pompeo reiterated US support for Juan Guaidó.[325] The US proposed a transitional government that would exclude both Maduro and Guaidó from the presidency.[326] The deal would enforce a power-sharing scenario between the different government factions. Elections would have to be held within the year, and all foreign militaries, particularly Cuba and Russia, would have to leave the country. The US were still seeking Maduro's arrest at the time of the announcement.[327] Other aspects of the US deal would include releasing all political prisoners and setting up a five-person council to lead the country; two members each chosen by Maduro and Guaidó would sit on the council, with the last member selected by the four. The European Union also agreed to remove sanctions if the deal went ahead. Experts have noted that the deal is similar to earlier proposals but explicitly mentions who would lead a transitional government, something which stalled previous discussions, and comes shortly after the US indicted Maduro, which might pressure him to peacefully leave power.[328] Guaidó accepted the proposal[329] while Venezuela's foreign minister Jorge Arreaza rejected it and declared that only parliamentary elections would take place in 2020. Arreaza said that "decisions about Venezuela would be made in Caracas and not in Washington or other capitals" and that "the most important transition for Venezuela was the one started many years ago from capitalism to socialism."[undue weight? ][330]

After various members of Guaidó's team were arrested on 30 March, Guaidó denounced a new wave of attacks against him.[331] Following that, Attorney General Tarek William Saab called Juan Guaidó to appear before the Public Ministry on 2 April based on Alcalá's accusations.[332] Guaidó did not accept to appear before the public prosecutor.[332] The day of the citation, two more members of Guaidó's office were arrested, charged for alleged "attempted coup d'etat" and "magnicide".[332] Guaidó's team reported that "With this new assault by the dictatorship, there are now 10 [of its] members that have been detained by security forces. Five of them in the last 72 hours."[332]

Venezuela Elliott Abrams have denied that negotiations have taken place.[334][335] The Associated Press reported that the National Assembly agreed to establish a monthly $5,000 salary for the lawmakers funded from an $80 million "Liberation Fund" made up of Venezuelan assets seized by the Trump administration. Guaidó's communications team issued a statement denying that such salary had been approved, saying that lawmakers have gone unpaid since Maduro cut off funding after the opposition won the legislature in 2015 and that the deputies would determine an appropriate, as well as communicating it transparently. It also said that the $14 million in funding destined for the National Assembly would cover not only the deputies' personal income, but also office expenses, staff costs, travel and other related legislative expenses.[336]

Operation Gideon

Eight former Venezuelan soldiers were killed and seventeen rebels were

Macuto and tried to invade Venezuela. The members of the naval attack force were employed as private military contractors by Silvercorp USA and the operation aimed to depose Maduro from power.[337]

Parliamentary election