West Antarctic Ice Sheet

Coordinates: 78°44′03″S 133°16′41″W / 78.73417°S 133.27806°W / -78.73417; -133.27806
Source: Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia.

78°44′03″S 133°16′41″W / 78.73417°S 133.27806°W / -78.73417; -133.27806

West Antarctic ice sheet
TypeIce sheet
Area<1,970,000 km2 (760,000 sq mi)[1]
Thickness~1.05 km (0.7 mi) (average),[2] ~2 km (1.2 mi) (maximum)[1]
StatusReceding

The West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) is the segment of the

Ronne Ice Shelf, and outlet glaciers that drain into the Amundsen Sea.[1]

As a smaller part of Antarctica, WAIS is also more strongly affected by

marine ice sheet instability may increase this amount by tens of centimeters, particularly under high warming.[8] Fresh meltwater from WAIS also contributes to ocean stratification and dilutes the formation of salty Antarctic bottom water, which destabilizes Southern Ocean overturning circulation.[8][9][10]

In the long term, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is likely to disappear due to the warming which has already occurred.

Isostatic rebound of ice-free land may also add around 1 m (3 ft 3 in) to the global sea levels over another 1,000 years.[16]

The preservation of WAIS may require a persistent reduction of global temperatures to 1 °C (1.8 °F) below the preindustrial level, or to 2 °C (3.6 °F) below the temperature of 2020.[18] Because the collapse of the ice sheet would be preceded by the loss of Thwaites Glacier and Pine Island Glacier, some have instead proposed interventions to preserve them. In theory, adding thousands of gigatonnes of artificially created snow could stabilize them,[19] but it would be extraordinarily difficult and may not account for the ongoing acceleration of ocean warming in the area.[11] Others suggest that building obstacles to warm water flows beneath glaciers would be able to delay the disappearance of the ice sheet by many centuries, but it would still require one of the largest civil engineering interventions in history.

Description

See also:
Ice sheet dynamics
A map of West Antarctica

The total volume of the entire Antarctic ice sheet is estimated at 26.92 million km3 (6.46 million cu mi),[2] while the WAIS contains about 2.1 million km3 (530,000 cu mi) in ice that is above the sea level, and ~1 million km3 (240,000 cu mi) in ice that is below it.[20] The weight of the ice has caused the underlying rock to sink by between 0.5 and 1 kilometre (0.31 and 0.62 miles)[21] in a process known as isostatic depression.

Under the force of its own weight, the ice sheet deforms and flows slowly over rough bedrock. Ice ridges are the areas where ice sheet movement is slow because it is frozen to the bed, while ice streams flow much faster because there is liquid water in the sediments beneath them. Those are either the marine sediments which used to cover the ocean floor before the ice sheet froze above them, or they have been created due to erosion from the constant friction of ice against the bedrock. The water in these sediments stays liquid because the Earth's crust below the ice streams is thin and conducts a lot of heat from geothermal activity, and because the friction also generates a lot of heat, particularly at the margins between ice streams and ice ridges.[22]

When ice reaches the coast, it either calves or continues to flow outward onto the water. The result is a large, floating ice shelf affixed to the continent. These ice shelves restrain the flow of ice into the ocean for as long as they are present.[23]

West Antarctic Rift System

See also: Glaciovolcanism

The

volcanoes located two kilometres below the icy surface, making it the largest volcanic region on Earth.[27]

Fast-moving ice streams in the Siple Coast adjacent to the east edge of the Ross Ice Shelf are influenced by the lubrication provided by water-saturated till within fault-bounded grabens within the rift,[28][29] which would act to accelerate ice-sheet disintegration at more intense levels of climate change.[30]

History

A topographic and bathymetric map of Antarctica without its ice sheets, assuming constant sea levels and no post-glacial rebound

Like the other ice sheets, West Antarctic Ice Sheet had undergone significant changes in size during its history. Up until around 400,000 years ago, the state of WAIS was largely governed by the effects of

Eemian period ~130,000 years ago.[12][13]

Climate change

Observations

1957-2007 Antarctic surface temperature trends, in °C/decade.[3]

West Antarctica has experienced statistically significant warming in the recent decades, although there's some uncertainty about its magnitude. In 2015, the warming of the WAIS between 1976 and 2012 was calculated as a range between 0.08 °C (0.14 °F) per decade and 0.96 °C (1.73 °F) per decade.[34] In 2009, the warming of the region since 1957 was estimated as exceeding 0.1 °C (0.18 °F) per decade.[3] This warming of is at its strongest in the Antarctic Peninsula. 2012 research found that the West Antarctic ice sheet had warmed by 2.4 °C (4.3 °F) since 1958 - around 0.46 °C (0.83 °F) per decade, which was almost double the 2009 estimate.[35] In 2022, Central WAIS warming between 1959 and 2000 was estimated at 0.31 °C (0.56 °F) per decade, with this change conclusively attributed to increases in greenhouse gas concentrations.[4]

Pine Island Bay, the location of both Thwaites (TEIS refers to Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf) and Pine Island Glaciers.[36]

The continually increasing ocean heat content forces the melting and retreat of ice sheet's coastal glaciers.[7] Normally, glacier mass balance offsets coastal losses through gains from snowfall at the surface, but between 1996 and 2006, Antarctic ice mass loss had already increased by 75%.[37] Between 2005 and 2010, WAIS melting was thought to have added 0.28 millimetres (0.011 inches) to global sea levels every year.[38] Around 2012, the total mass loss from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet was estimated at 118 ± 9 gigatonnes per year.[39] Subsequent satellite observations revealed that the West Antarctic ice loss increased from 53 ± 29 gigatonnes per year in 1992 to 159 ± 26 gigatonnes per year in 2017, resulting in 7.6 ± 3.9 mm (19⁄64 ± 5⁄32 in) of Antarctica sea level rise.[6] By 2023, ~150 gigatonnes per year became the average annual rate of mass loss since 2002, equivalent to 0.4 millimetres (0.016 inches) of annual sea level rise.[7]

Coastal glaciers are typically buttressed by

Amundsen Sea Embayment[38] and its three most vulnerable glaciers - Thwaites Glacier, Pine Island Glacier and Smith Glacier.[42][43] Around 2005, they were thought to lose 60% more mass than what they have gained, and to contribute about 0.24 millimetres (0.0094 inches) per year to global sea level rise.[44]

The comparison of current rates of retreat on the eastern side of Thwaites (left) and ones projected after the collapse of the Thwaites Ice Shelf.[41] This projection was challenged the following year.[45]

Of the three, Thwaites Glacier is the best-known, to the point of being nicknamed the "Doomsday Glacier" by some in the press,[46][47] although many scientists consider it alarmist and inaccurate.[48] The reason for concern about Thwaites is because it had been experiencing substantial mass loss since at least the early 1990s,[5] while its local seabed topography provides no obstacles to rapid retreat,[49] with its most vulnerable parts located 1.5 mi (2.4 km) below the sea level.[50] Further, it had been shown in 2021 that the Thwaites Ice Shelf, which currently restrains the eastern portion of the Thwaites Glacier, could start to collapse within five years.[41][51][52] The glacier would start to see major losses "within decades" after the ice shelf's failure, and its annual contribution to sea level rise would increase from the current 4% to 5%, although it would still take centuries to disappear entirely.[53]

Projected 21st century ice loss

Thwaites Glacier, with its vulnerable bedrock topography visible.

As the West Antarctic Ice Sheet loses ice due to the warming ocean water melting its coastal glaciers, it inevitably contributes to sea level rise. However, projections are complicated by additional processes that are difficult to model, such as meltwater from the ice sheet itself changing local current circulation due to being warmer and fresher than the ocean water.[54][55] Another complicated process is hydrofracturing, where meltwater collecting atop the ice sheet may pool into fractures and force them open, further damaging its integrity.[56] Climate change alters winds above Antarctica, which can also affect surface current circulation,[57][58] but the importance of this process has been disputed.[11]

An illustration of the theory behind marine ice sheet and marine ice cliff instabilities.[56]

Most importantly, the WAIS has a complex

marine ice sheet instability (MISI) and it has the potential to greatly accelerate ice losses. The lack of knowledge about its specifics introduces substantial uncertainty into projections of 21st century sea level rise.[59] WAIS could be even more vulnerable under the so-called marine ice cliff instability hypothesis (MICI). It suggests that when a glacier's ice shelf melts, it would not just retreat faster, but rapidly collapse under own weight if the height of its cliffs was greater than 100 m (330 ft).[60][61] This particular process has never been observed and was even ruled out by some of the more detailed modelling, but it still adds to the uncertainty in sea level projections.[62]

The

the surface would be gaining more mass. This is possible because effects of climate change on the water cycle would add more snow to the surface of the ice sheet, which is soon compressed into more ice, and this could offset some of the losses from the coasts.[65]

In 2020, experts considered 2016 research on marine ice cliff instability[60] even more influential than the IPCC AR5.[66]

Afterwards, several major publications in the late 2010s (including the Fourth United States

Jim Hansen presented a hypothesis of vulnerable ice sheet collapse leading to near-term exponential sea level rise acceleration, with a doubling time of 10, 20 or 40 years, which would then lead to multi-meter sea level rise in 50, 100 or 200 years.[71][72] However, it remains a minority view amongst the scientific community.[73] For comparison, year 2020 survey of 106 experts found that their 5%-95% confidence interval of 2100 sea level rise for the high-emission scenario RCP8.5 was 45–165 cm (17+1⁄2–65 in). Their high-level projections also included both ice sheet and ice cliff instability: the experts found ice cliff instability research to be just as or even more influential as the IPCC Fifth Assessment report.[66]

If countries cut greenhouse gas emissions significantly (lowest trace), then sea level rise by 2100 can be limited to 0.3–0.6 m (1–2 ft).[74] If the emissions instead accelerate rapidly (top trace), sea levels could rise 5 m (16+1⁄2 ft) by the year 2300.[74]

Consequently, when the

snowfall accumulation over the ice sheet at about the same rate as it would increase ice loss), it can conceivably contribute up to 41 cm (16 in) by 2100 under the low-emission scenario and up to 57 cm (22 in) under the highest-emission one, due to the aforementioned uncertainties. It had also been suggested that by the year 2300, Antarctica's role in sea level rise would only slightly increase from 2100 if the low-emission RCP2.6 scenario was followed, only contributing a median of 16 cm (5 in). On the other hand, even the minimum estimate of West Antarctica melting under the high-emission scenario would be no less than 60 cm (0 ft), while the median would amount to 1.46 m (5 ft) and the maximum to 2.89 m (10 ft).[8]

Impacts of melting on ocean currents

Main article: Southern Ocean overturning circulation
See also: Effects of climate change on oceans
Since the 1970s, the upper cell of the circulation has strengthened, while the lower cell weakened.[75]

Ice loss from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (along with much smaller losses from the East Antarctic Ice Sheet adds meltwater to the Southern Ocean, at a total rate of 1100-1500 billion tons (GT) per year.[8]: 1240  This meltwater is fresh, and when it mixes with ocean water, the ocean becomes fresher as well.[76] This results in the increased stratification and stabilization of the ocean layers,[77][8]: 1240  which has a significant impact on Southern Ocean overturning circulation.[9][10] It is one half of the global thermohaline circulation, with the better-known Atlantic meridional overturning circulation being the other. Southern Ocean absorbs by far the most heat and is also the strongest carbon sink out of any ocean.[78][79][80] Both properties are affected by the strength of the overturning circulation.[81]

The overturning circulation consists of two parts - the smaller upper cell, which is most strongly affected by

Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, but large flows of meltwater also had a clear effect,[84][85][9][76] The circulation may lose half of its strength by 2050 under the worst climate change scenario,[10] and decline even more afterwards.[86] In the long run, the circulation could collapse entirely: potentially between 1.7 °C (3.1 °F) and 3 °C (5.4 °F), though this is much less certain than with the other tipping points in the climate system.[81]
This collapse would likely require multiple centuries to unfold: it is not expected to diminish Southern Ocean heat and carbon uptake during the 21st century,
fisheries in the Southern Ocean, which could lead to a potential collapse of certain marine ecosystems.[86] Due to limited research to date, few specifics are currently known.[81]

Long-term thinning and collapse

A collage of footage and animation to explain the changes that are occurring on the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, narrated by glaciologist Eric Rignot

The same ice sheet topography which makes marine ice sheet instability possible in the short term,

Pine Island Bay slope downwards at an angle, well below the sea level. Thus, even a limited warming of ocean currents ice would effectively undermine the ice.[90][50][36] In 1981, the Amundsen Sea region had first been described by the researchers as "the weak underbelly" of the WAIS, with the hypothesis that the collapse of Thwaites Glacier and Pine Island Glacier would trigger for the collapse of the entire ice sheet.[91][50] This had been supported by subsequent research.[92]

Nowadays, the potential for the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to disappear after a certain temperature is exceeded is considered one of the

Eemian period, such as analysis of silt isotopes in the Bellingshausen Sea, or the genomic history of Antarctica's Turquet's octopus. The former shows specific patterns in silt deposition and the latter genetic connections between currently separate subpopulations; both are impossible unless there was no ice outside of mountain caps in the West Antarctica around 125,000 years ago, during Marine Isotope Stage 5. Since that period was only 0.5 °C (0.90 °F) to 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) warmer than the preindustrial period, the current levels of warming are also likely to be sufficient to eventually melt the ice sheet.[93][94][12][13][95] Further, oceanographic research explains how this irreversible melting would occur, by indicating that water temperatures in the entire Amundsen Sea are already committed to increase at triple the historical rate throughout the 21st century.[11][96][97]

Contribution to sea level rise from a modelled area of Thwaites Glacier under high- and low warming (HSO and LSO) and high (m1) and low (m8) friction. Top shows both warming scenarios in a high-detail model, while middle and bottom graphics show the HSO and LSO scenarios in low-resolution models.[98]

However, while the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is likely to be committed to disappearance, it would still take a long time. Even its most vulnerable parts like Thwaites Glacier, which holds about 65 cm (25+1⁄2 in) of sea level rise equivalent, are believed to require "centuries" to collapse entirely.[53] Thwaites' ice loss over the next 30 years would likely amount to around 5 mm of sea level rise between 2018 and 2050, and between 14 and 42 mm over 100 years.[40] Other research also suggests that Thwaites Glacier would add less than 0.25 mm of global sea level rise per year over the 21st century, although it would increase to over 1 mm per year during its "rapid collapse" phase, which it expected to occur between 200 and 900 years in the future.[99][100][101] 2023 research had also shown that much of the glacier may survive 500 years into the future.[98]

Consequently, the entire WAIS would most likely take around 2,000 years to disintegrate entirely once it crosses its tipping point. Under the highest warming scenario RCP8.5, this may be shortened to around 500 years,[16] while the longest potential timescale for its disappearance is around 13,000 years.[14][15] In 1978, it was believed that the loss of the ice sheet would cause around 5 m (16 ft 5 in) of sea level rise,[90] Later improvements in modelling had shown that the collapse of the ice grounded below the sea level would cause ~3.3 m (10 ft 10 in) of sea level rise,[102] The additional melting of all the ice caps in West Antarctica that are not in contact with water would increase it to 4.3 m (14 ft 1 in).[2] However, those ice caps have been continously present for at least the past 1.4 million years, and so their melting would require a larger level of warming.[17]

Finally, 2021 research indicates that

ice-albedo feedback: a total loss would increase the global temperatures by 0.05 °C (0.090 °F), while the local temperatures would increase by around 1 °C (1.8 °F).[14][15]

Reversing or slowing ice sheet loss

While it would take a very long time from start to end for the ice sheet to disappear, some research indicates that the only way to stop its complete meltdown once triggered is by lowering the global temperature to 1 °C (1.8 °F) below the preindustrial level; i.e. 2 °C (3.6 °F) below the temperature of 2020.[18] Other researchers have proposed engineering interventions to stabilize Thwaites and Pine Island Glaciers before they are lost. For instance, 2019 research estimated that moving some ocean water from the Amundsen Sea to the top of the Thwaites and Pine Island Glacier area and freezing it to create at least 7400 billion tonnes of snow would be able to stabilize the ice sheet. This would be enormously expensive, as an equivalent of 12,000 wind turbines would be required to provide power just to move the water to the ice sheet, even before desalinating it (to avoid enhancing surface melt with salt) and turning it to snow.[19] It also assumed local water temperature remaining at early 21st century levels, rather than tripling unavoidably by 2100 as was discovered by later research.[11]

This section is an excerpt from Thwaites Glacier § Engineering options for stabilization.[edit]
A proposed "underwater sill" blocking 50% of warm water flows heading for the glacier could have the potential to delay its collapse and the resultant sea level rise by many centuries.[103]

Some engineering interventions have been proposed for Thwaites Glacier and the nearby

greenhouse gas emission reductions.[103]

In 2023, a modified proposal was tabled: it was proposed that an installation of underwater "curtains", made out of a flexible material and anchored to Amundsen Sea floor would be able to interrupt warm water flow while reducing costs and increasing their longevity (conservatively estimated at 25 years for curtain elements and up to 100 years for the foundations) relative to more rigid structures. With them in place, Thwaites Ice Shelf and Pine Island Ice Shelf would presumably be able to regrow to a state they last had a century ago, thus stabilizing these glaciers.[107][108][105] To achieve this, the curtains would have to be placed at a depth of around 600 metres (0.37 miles) (to avoid damage from icebergs which would be regularly drifting above) and be 80 km (50 mi) long. The authors acknowledged that while work on this scale would be unprecedented and face many challenges in the Antarctic (including polar night and the currently insufficient numbers of specialized polar ships and underwater vessels), it would also not require any new technology and there is already experience of laying down pipelines at such depths.[107][108]

Diagram of a proposed "curtain".[107]
The authors estimated that this project would take a decade to construct, at $40–80 billion initial cost, while the ongoing maintenance would cost $1–2 billion a year.[107][108] Yet, a single seawall capable of protecting the entire New York City may cost twice as much on its own,[105] and the global costs of adaptation to sea level rise caused by the glaciers' collapse are estimated to reach $40 billion annually:[107][108] The authors also suggested that their proposal would be competitive with the other "climate engineering" proposals like stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) or carbon dioxide removal (CDR), as while those would stop a much larger spectrum of climate change impacts, their estimated annual costs range from $7–70 billion for SAI to $160–4500 billion for CDR powerful enough to help meet the 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) Paris Agreement target.[107][108]

See also

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External links
Retrieved from "https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=West_Antarctic_Ice_Sheet&oldid=1216853920"