2023 Ecuadorian general election

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2023 Ecuadorian general election

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  • 20 August 2023 (first round)
  • 15 October 2023 (second round)
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Presidential election
 
Candidate Daniel Noboa Luisa González
Party ADN RC
Running mate Verónica Abad Rojas Andrés Arauz
Popular vote 5,251,695 4,880,525
Percentage 51.83% 48.17%


President before election

Guillermo Lasso
CREO

Elected President

Daniel Noboa
ADN

Snap general elections were held in Ecuador on 20 August 2023 to vote for President of Ecuador, members of the National Assembly and two referendums. Elections followed the invocation of muerte cruzada, which dissolved the National Assembly on 17 May 2023.[1] A run-off election was held on 15 October 2023 to elect the President after candidates were unable to reach the threshold needed to win in the first round. Incumbent president Guillermo Lasso was eligible for a second term,[2] but he announced on 18 May that he would not stand for re-election in response to his impeachment.[3][4]

The officials elected—to both the executive and legislative branches—will serve out the remainder of the current presidential and legislative terms (2021–2025), starting on 25 November 2023. A regular election for a full four-year term is expected to follow in early 2025.[5] A national referendum on oil exploitation in the Yasuní National Park and a local one on metallic mining in the Chocó Andino area were held on the same day.[6][7][8] The assassination of presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio—occurring 11 days before the first round—made international headlines.[9]

Advancing to the 15 October run-off, Luisa González of the Citizen Revolution Movement came in first place, winning 33% of the vote with Daniel Noboa of the National Democratic Action coming in second place with 24% of the vote.[10][11] Noboa's second place finish was seen as surprising and an upset, with his debate performance seen as a key factor to his rise in popularity among voters.[12] Noboa ended up defeating González with 52% of the votes in the runoff election, a similar result to that of Guillermo Lasso in 2021, making Noboa the President-elect of Ecuador.[13] At 35 years old, he is the youngest president in the country's history.[14][15]

Background

Voting sheets used for the general elections.
Voting stations used for the elections.

On 17 May 2023, a day after he presented his defense in an impeachment process against him, President Lasso invoked the muerte cruzada mechanism provided for in Article 148 of the 2008 Constitution to dissolve the National Assembly, bringing forward legislative and presidential elections.[16]

On 18 May, Diana Atamaint, the president of the National Electoral Council (CNE), announced 20 August 2023 as the tentative date for the legislative election and the first round of the presidential vote. The CNE had until 24 May to finalize the electoral calendar.[17]

On 13 June, Luisa González was en route to register her presidential candidacy with the National Electoral Council with her supporters and president of the Citizen Revolution movement, Marcela Aguiñaga, when they were attacked with pepper spray and tear gas by the National Police.[18] She was treated at a Quito medical center after flushing her eyes from the pepper spray.[19] The National Police claimed to have used chemical agents to protect security and public order because of the hostile behavior of González's supporters.[20]

Less than two weeks before the election, on 9 August 2023, candidate Fernando Villavicencio was assassinated after a campaign rally in Quito at the age of 59.[21] He is the first presidential candidate to have been assassinated in the country since Abdon Calderon Muñoz's assassination in 1978.[22] The assassination of Villavicencio made international news, prompting condemnation of the attack and condolences by foreign countries as well as the Organization of American States, who called for an investigation.[23][24] He was replaced on the ballot by a fellow journalist, Christian Zurita, keeping Villavicencio's running mate Andrea González.[25]

The general election has been perceived to be largely overshadowed by narco politics and violent crime.[26][27]

Electoral system

Demonstration in Quito supporting blank voting ("Vota no")

The president is elected using a modified two-round system, with a candidate required to get over 50% of the vote, or get over 40% of the vote and be 10 points ahead of their nearest rival, to be elected in the first round.[28] The president is limited to two consecutive four-year terms.[28][29]

Members of the

Webster method.[30][31] Members of the National Assembly are limited to two four-year terms, regardless if they are consecutive or not.[31] There are gender quotas for the party lists, meaning there is alternation between men and women. There are no quotas for minority representation.[29]

Presidential candidates

President Guillermo Lasso declined to run on 19 May 2023

A day after the dissolution of the National Assembly on 17 May 2023, former

Social Christian Party;[33][34] however, the party declined to nominate a candidate and instead endorsed businessman Jan Topić's candidacy on 21 May.[35]

On 24 May, former National Assembly member

Pachakutik.[37] On 29 May, activist Bolívar Armijos Velasco announced his campaign along with the endorsement of the AMIGO Movement.[38]

On 6 June, President Lasso's party Creating Opportunities announced that they would not endorse a presidential candidate.[39] On 8 June, Quito-based businessman and 2021 presidential candidate Xavier Hervas announced his candidacy and was endorsed by the RETO Movement.[40] On 10 June, the Rafael Correa-funded Citizen Revolution Movement party sought to nominate former Vice President Jorge Glas as their nominee; Glas declined the nomination, however.[41] 2021 presidential runner-up Andrés Arauz also declined to run and instead sought the vice presidential candidacy.[42] The party instead nominated former Assemblywoman Luisa González as its presidential nominee and Arauz as her running mate.[42]

On 13 July 2023, the National Electoral Council (CNE) officially confirmed the eight candidacies of Armijos, González, Hervas, Noboa Azín, Pérez Guartambel, Sonnenholzner, Topić and Villavicencio.[43] The CNE also said that the official campaign period would run from 13 July until 20 August.[43]

On 13 August, journalist Christian Zurita was named as Villavicencio's replacement following his assassination.[25]

Advanced to Run-off

Name Born Experience Home province Running mate Campaign Ref

Luisa González
22 November 1977
(age 46)
Quito, Pichincha
Member of the National Assembly
(2021–2023)
Secretary of Public Administration
(2017)
Manabí
Andrés Arauz Galarza Endorsed by:
RC
Announced:
10 June 2023
[44][42]

Daniel Noboa
30 November 1987
(age 36)
Miami, Florida, U.S.
Member of the National Assembly
(2021–2023)
Founder of DNA Entertainment Group
Santa Elena
Verónica Abad Rojas Endorsed by:
ADN[a]
Announced:
24 May 2023
[36]
  1. ^ Alliance is composed of People, Equality and Democracy and Mover

Eliminated in first round

Name Born Experience Home province Running mate Campaign Ref

Bolívar Armijos
9 January 1976
(age 48)
San Lorenzo, Esmeraldas
President of CONAGOPARE
(2014–2019)
Esmeraldas
Linda Romero Espinoza Endorsed by:
AMIGO
Announced:
29 May 2023
[38]

Xavier Hervas
7 October 1972
(age 51)
Guayaquil, Guayas
President of NovaAlimentos S.A.
Candidate for president (2021)
Pichincha
Luz Marina Vega Conejo Endorsed by:

RETO
Announced:
8 June 2023
[40]

Yaku Pérez Guartambel
26 February 1969
(age 55)
Cuenca, Azuay
Provincial Prefect of Azuay Province
(2019–2020)
President of ECUARUNARI
(2013–2019)
Candidate for president (2021)
Azuay
Nory Pinela Morán Endorsed by:
Claro Que Se
Puede
Pachakutik

Announced:
25 May 2023
[37]

Otto Sonnenholzner
19 March 1983
(age 41)
Guayaquil, Guayas
Vice President of Ecuador
(2018–2020)
Guayas
Erika Paredes Sánchez Endorsed by:
Actuemos[b]
Democratic Left
Announced:
18 May 2023
[32]

Jan Topić
23 April 1983
(age 41)
Guayaquil, Guayas
President of Telconet
(2010–present)
Guayas
Diana Jácome Silva Endorsed by:
Por Un País
Sin Miedo[c]
Announced:
21 May 2023
[35]

Christian Zurita
4 April 1970
(age 54)
Quito, Pichincha
Investigative journalist
Pichincha
Andrea González Náder Endorsed by:
MC25[d]
Announced:
13 August 2023
[25]
  1. ^ Alliance is composed of Popular Unity, Socialist Party – Broad Front of Ecuador and Democracia Sí
  2. ^ Alliance is composed of Avanza and SUMA
  3. Social Christian Party (logo pictured), Patriotic Society Party and Democratic Center
  4. ^ Replacement candidate following assassination of Fernando Villavicencio

Assassinated prior to election

Name Personal Experience Home province Running mate Campaign Ref

Fernando Villavicencio
11 October 1963

9 August 2023
(aged 59)
Member of the National Assembly
(2021–2023)
Pichincha
Andrea González Náder Endorsed by:
MC25
Announced:
17 May 2023
Assassinated:
9 August 2023
[9][21]

Declined

Opinion polls

Run-off

Date Participants Pollster Margin
of error
Daniel Noboa Luisa González Blank Null Undecided
14 October 16,486 Omar Maluk[54][55] 3% 50.9% 49.1% ---
47.8% 46.1% 6.1% --
15 October [projection] 1,200 CIT Peru[56] 2.8% 49.14% 50.86% ---
12 October 50.42% 49.52%
45.00% 44.02% 10.8% --
10 October 1,485 Dado Duro EC[57] 2.8% 38.6% 39.6% 12.4% 9.3%
9 October 1,000 Negocios & Estratégias[58][59] 3.1% 49.94% 50.06% ---
43.9% 44% 12.1%
8 October 5,420 Comunicaliza[60] 1.33% 41.4% 36.2% 9.2% 13.2%
6 October Six suspects in the assassination of Fernando Villavicencio are killed in Guayaquil Penitentiary[61]
5 October 11,235 Omar Maluk[62] 3% 48.9% 51.1% ---
4 October 3,750 NEO Consulta[63] 1.6% 48.9% 51.1% ---
4 October 3,000 Negocios & Estratégias[64] 1.8% 44% 42.8% 5.3% 7.8%
1 October Official second round presidential debate is held in Quito
15 September 5,032 Comunicaliza[65] 1.38% 43.1% 35.1% 9.5% 12.3%
15 September 8,000 Omar Maluk[66] 2% 52.3% 47.7% ---
10 September 5,381 Comunicaliza[67] 1.3% 39.7% 34.0% 11.8% 14.4%
6 September 3,040 Click Report[68] 3% 55.2% 44.8% –-
45.8% 37.2% 12.5% 4.5%
5 September 2,100 NEO Consulta[69] 2.1% 49.6% 50.4% –-
42.0% 42.7% 8.6% 6.7%
2 September 6,002 Comunicaliza[70] 1.3% 43.1% 35.4% 8.6% 12.9%

First round

Date Pollster Participants Margin of error Noboa González Sonnenholzner
Pérez
Villavicencio Zurita Hervas Topić Armijos Blank Null Undecided
20 August Election 23.47% 33.61% 7.06% 3.97% 16.37% 0.49% 14.67% 0.36% 2.04 6.77
11–12 August Comunicaliza[71] 3,641 1.62% 3.3% 24.9% 8.2% 5.8% 14.5% 1.6% 21.7% 0.3% 9.5% 10.2%
9 August Fernando Villavicencio is assassinated at a campaign rally in Quito and replaced by Zurita
9 August Cedatos[72] 1,803 3.1% 3.7% 35.4% 7.5% 11.9% 18.4% 4.1% 18% 0.9%
2.5% 24% 5.1% 8.1% 12.5% 2.8% 12.2% 0.6% 11.9% 2.8% 17.5%
6 August Click Report[73] 3,040 3% 6.8% 29.3% 9.2% 14.4% 7.5% 6.8% 9.6% 6.8% 16.9% 3.2%
5 August Telcodata[74] 6,600 1.2% 2.0% 30.5% 6.5% 7.7% 6.8% 1.6% 13.1% 0.2% 7.6% 23.8%
2 August IPSOS[74] 2,490 1.96% 4% 29% 16% 10% 12% 5% 9% 1% 11% 5%
2 August Telcodata[75] 6,631 1.2% 2.1% 29.8% 7.7% 8.8% 7.4% 2.2% 10.1% 0.3% 7.5% 23.9%
27 July Tracking[76] 1,250 5% 3.2% 23.2% 19.4% 10.1% 9.2% 4.5% 3.8% 0.7% 14.1% 2.6% 9.2%
26 July Comunicaliza[77] 3,539 1.7% 4.2% 28.6% 12.6% 8.1% 9.2% 4.4% 4.4% 0.5% 13.6% 14.5%
23 July Agustín Intriago, Mayor of Manta, is assassinated.
20 July Estrategas Infinity[78] 1,549 2.5% 3.1% 30.9% 11.9% 10.0% 7.8% 5.0% 5.2% 0.3% 11.9% 3.0% 11.0%
18 July Cedatos[79] 1,300 3.1% 4.4% 26.6% 7.5% 12.5% 13.2% 6.0% 3.2% 0.5% 2.6% 16.1% 7.6%
9 July Numma[80] 1,604 2.7% 6.4% 33.8% 17.5% 15.1% 10.2% 6.9% 8.5% 1.6%
3–9 July Tracking[81] 1,250 5% 4.6% 24.2% 15.2% 11.5% 8.0% 5.4% 4.5% 0.6% 10.3% 15.3%
20 June–8 July Omar Maluk[82] 7,106 3% 4.4% 40.1% 14.7% 13.6% 9.1% 10.3% 7.1% 0.6%
3.7% 33.8% 12.4% 11.5% 7.7% 8.7% 6.0% 0.5% 5.9% 9.8%
5–6 July Comunicaliza[83] 3,314 1.7% 4.5% 26.8% 12.8% 10.3% 9.3% 6.5% 3.0% 0.1% 12.1% 14.1%
26 June–3 July Metria[84] 1,200 2.8% 3.1% 37.8% 18.2% 11.0% 7.5% 1.7% 6.5% ›1% 10.1% 4.0%
22–26 June Negocios & Estrategias[85][86] 3,524 1.7% 4% 52% 14% 13% 4% 9% 5% 0%
3% 41% 11% 10% 7% 3% 4% 0% 21%
1% 30% 8% 8% 5% 2% 2% 0% 6% 38%
23–26 June Mercanalis[87] 4,000 3% 7% 38% 9% 12% 10% 8% 14% 2%
5% 27% 6% 9% 7% 5% 10% 1% 12% 18%
20–24 June Data Encuesta[88][89] 4,200 3.4% 5.2% 28.1% 9.6% 16.6% 9.3% 7.3% 14.8% 9.1%
19–20 June Estrategas Infinity[90] 3,645 1.62% 4.3% 28.0% 9.9% 8.8% 8.3% 6.1% 2.5% 0.5% 3.9% 15.9% 11.8%
16–18 June Comunicaliza[91] 3,656 1.62% 3.8% 25.9% 11.2% 10.3% 8.0% 6.2% 2.6% 0.4% 13.2% 18.4%
5–9 June Data Encuesta[92] 4,800 3.4% 4.2% 27.8% 7.6% 14.8% 7.1% 6.2% 14.2% 17.9%
Precandidates polling
Date Pollster Participants Margin
of error
Guillermo Lasso
(CREO)
Andrés Arauz
(RC)
Rafael Correa
(RC)
Luisa González
(RC)
Carlos Rabascall
(RC)
MUPP
)
PSC
)
PSC – PSPCD
)
PSE
– DSÍ)
Fernando Villavicencio
(MC25)
Otto Sonnenholzner
(Avanza – SUMA)
Xavier Hervas
(RETO)
Daniel Noboa
(PID – MOVER)
Others Null Blank Undecided
6/2 Estrategas Infinity[93] 1,518 3.4% 5.8% 27.2% 9.2% 3.2% 14.1% 9.3% 9.9% 5.3% 4.6% 11.4%
5/29 Cedatos[94] 2.400 1.3% 2.6% 9.1% 4.0% 13.2% 6.5% 7.2% 4.9% 1.1% 34.2% 4.7% 12.5%
2.7% 6.3% 4.5% 12.6% 6.8% 7.2% 5.2% 1.2% 34.2% 4.6% 14.8%
4.3% 18.6% 6.7% 3.8% 11.4% 5.9% 5.7% 4.8% 23.7% 4.4% 10.9%
5/17 President
National Assembly
and calling snap elections.
4/21 IMASEN[95] 1,500 2.5% 2.0% 32.3% 2.0% 8.1% 19.3% 36.3%
3/19 Clima Social[96] 5.600 1.3% 1.8% 16.5% 8.4% 1.7% 7.4% 2.5% 2.0% 6.0% 18.1% 25.6% 10.1%
2.3% 40.4% 4.4% 0.62% 4.0% 2.2% 1.4% 5.0% 13.1% 19.7% 6.9%

Results

President

CandidateRunning matePartyFirst roundSecond round
Votes%Votes%
Luisa GonzálezAndrés ArauzCitizen Revolution Movement3,315,66333.614,880,52548.17
Daniel NoboaVerónica Abad RojasNational Democratic Action2,315,29623.475,251,69551.83
Christian ZuritaAndrea González NáderMovimiento Construye1,614,43416.37
Jan TopićDiana Jácome SilvaPor Un País Sin Miedo1,446,81214.67
Otto SonnenholznerErika Paredes SánchezActuemos696,5487.06
Yaku PérezNory Pinela MoránClaro Que Se Puede391,6743.97
Xavier HervasLuz Marina Vega ConejoRETO Movement48,4280.49
Bolívar ArmijosLinda Romero EspinozaAMIGO Movement35,7850.36
Total9,864,640100.0010,132,220100.00
Valid votes9,864,64091.1910,132,22091.49
Invalid votes732,4786.77858,3947.75
Blank votes220,7172.0484,1780.76
Total votes10,817,835100.0011,074,792100.00
Registered voters/turnout13,045,55382.9213,446,68282.36
Source: CNE, eldiario, CNE
  • González
    González
  • Noboa
    Noboa
  • Zurita
    Zurita
  • Topić
    Topić

National Assembly