Demographic window
The Demographic Window is defined to be that period of time in a nation's
The exact technical boundaries of definition may vary. The
Phase | Under 15 (%) | Over 64 (%) |
---|---|---|
Traditional | >40 | - |
Pre-window | 30-40 | - |
Early-window | 25-30 | - |
Mid-window | 20-25 | - |
Late-window | <20 | <15 |
Post-window | - | >15 |
Europe's demographic window lasted from 1950 to 2000. It began in China in 1990 and is expected to last until 2015. India is expected to enter the demographic window in 2010, which may last until the middle of the present century. Much of Africa will not enter the demographic window until 2045 or later.
Societies who have entered the demographic window have smaller dependency ratio (ratio of dependents to working-age population) and therefore the demographic potential for high economic growth as favorable dependency ratios tend to boost savings and investments in human capital. But this so-called "demographic bonus" (or demographic dividend) remains only a potential advantage as low participation rates (for instance among women) or rampant unemployment may limit the impact of favorable age structures.
For a list of demographic windows of other nations check the UN link in References.
See also
- Demographics
References
- ^ Crombach, L. and J. Smits, "The Demographic Window of Opportunity and Economic Growth at Sub-National Level in 91 Developing Countries" Social Indicators Research, 2021
- Proceedings of the United Nations Expert Meeting on World Population to 2300
- Bloom, David E., David Canning and Jaypee Sevilla (2003)- The Demographic Dividend: A New Perspective on the Economic Consequences of Population Change.
- A CICRED Policy Paper on implications of age structural transitions