Probability of kill
The probability of kill, or "Pk", is usually based on a uniform random number generator. This algorithm creates a number between 0 and 1 that is approximately uniformly distributed in that space. If the Pk of a weapon/target engagement is 30% (or 0.30), then every random number generated that is less than 0.3 is considered a "kill"; every number greater than 0.3 is considered a "no kill". When used many times in a simulation, the average result will be that 30% of the weapon/target engagements will be a kill and 70% will not be a kill.
This measure may also be used to express the
Additional factors include the probability of detection (Pd), reliability of the targeting system (Rsys), and reliability of the weapon (Rw), to name a few. For example, if a missile operates properly e.g. 90% of the time (assuming a good shot), the targeting system operates properly 85% of the time, and enemy targets are detected at 50%, accuracy of the Pk estimation can be increased:
Pk = Phit * Pd * Rsys * Rw
For example:
Pk = 0.9 * 0.5 * 0.85 * 0.90 = 0.344
Users can also specify a probability according to a class of targets, for example, it has been stated that the
See also
References
- A.M. Law and W.D. Kelton, Simulation Modeling and Analysis, McGraw Hill, 1991.
- J. Banks (editor), Handbook of Simulation: Principles, Methodology, Advances, Applications, and Practice, John Wiley & Sons, 1998.
- R. Smith and D. Stoner, "Fingers of Death: Algorithms for Combat Killing", Game Programming Gems 4, Charles River Media, 2004.