Theory of historical trajectory

Source: Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia.

The theory of historical trajectory is part of

deterministic theory of "long term impossibility of capitalism".[3] According to Marx, the very same problems that should make capitalism fail should also provide the means for the new, more democratic and egalitarian society to arise.[4]

Theory

Wright identifies five core arguments in Marx's thought.[4] The first of these is that capitalism is an unsustainable economic system in the long run.[5] Here, Marx claims that capitalism's replacement by another economic system is an inevitability, as through time it creates conditions in which it can no longer function.[5] This part of Marx's argument does not predict what type of system will replace capitalism, it simply stresses the capitalist self-destructive nature.[5] This prediction is based on four trends Marx observed:

  • productivity is steadily increased;
  • the reach of capitalism increases both in the geographical sense and in the penetration of the society (commodification);
  • capital tends to be increasingly concentrated;
  • periodic economic crises (recessions) tend to be increasingly more severe.[5]

A related, more theoretical argument that Marx made here was based on the labor theory of value (only labor produces value).[5] Marx believed that as non-labor (and by extension of the labor theory, non-profitable) factors become increasingly important, profits will decline, eventually approaching zero.[5] This is commonly referred to as the tendency of the rate of profit to fall.

Second, Marx predicted the increase in the

class struggle.[6] Here, Marx argued that over time, the working class will grow in numbers (proletarianization), and it will also become more aware of the inefficiencies of the capitalist system (class consciousness).[6] Third, according to Marx, when the working class and its allies would become sufficiently numerous and organized, they would challenge and overthrow the system in a revolution (world revolution).[7] Marx assumed here that the resistance of the capitalist class would continue to the end, preventing any non-violent, democratic transformation, and thus that the transition into a post-capitalism era would require the use of violence to overcome such resistance.[7]

Next, Marx argued that a post-capitalist system would most likely be one where

from each according to his ability, to each according to his need".[9]

Praise and criticism

Wright describes the theory framed by Marx as "brilliant, if ultimately unsatisfactory."[3] Wright outlined four major deficiencies he believed to have existed in the theory:

  • periodic crises (recessions) have not, so far, exhibited any clear trend of becoming increasingly severe;
  • class structures, rather than producing a homogenous working class, have become increasingly complex;
  • the working class did not become increasingly organized and powerful; and,
  • capitalism, even when overthrown, was not replaced by democratic socialist societies and certainly not by communism.[9]

References

  1. ISBN 978-0-387-32458-6
    . Retrieved 6 December 2011.
  2. ISBN 978-0-8166-2966-4. Retrieved 6 December 2011.[permanent dead link
    ]
  3. ^
    ISBN 978-1-84467-618-7. Retrieved 6 December 2011.[permanent dead link
    ]
  4. ^
    ISBN 978-1-84467-618-7. Retrieved 6 December 2011.[permanent dead link
    ]
  5. ^
    ISBN 978-1-84467-618-7. Retrieved 6 December 2011.[permanent dead link
    ]
  6. ^
    ISBN 978-1-84467-618-7. Retrieved 6 December 2011.[permanent dead link
    ]
  7. ^
    ISBN 978-1-84467-618-7. Retrieved 6 December 2011.[permanent dead link
    ]
  8. ^
    ISBN 978-1-84467-618-7. Retrieved 6 December 2011.[permanent dead link
    ]
  9. ^
    ISBN 978-1-84467-618-7. Retrieved 6 December 2011.[permanent dead link
    ]
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