2012 Icelandic presidential election

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2012 Icelandic presidential election

← 2008 30 June 2012 2016 →
 
Candidate Ólafur Ragnar Grímsson Thóra Arnórsdóttir Ari Trausti Guðmundsson
Popular vote 84,036 52,795 13,762
Percentage 52.78% 33.16% 8.64%

President before election

Ólafur Ragnar Grímsson

Elected President

Ólafur Ragnar Grímsson

Presidential elections were held in Iceland on 30 June 2012.[1] The result was a victory for the incumbent Ólafur Ragnar Grímsson, who defeated his nearest rival Thóra Arnórsdóttir by nearly 20% of the vote, and went on to serve a record fifth term as president of Iceland.

Candidates and campaign

There were six candidates, but the election became a contest between the incumbent president, and the journalist Thóra Arnórsdóttir, who wanted to return the presidency to a more ceremonial role.

Main candidates:

  • The incumbent president, Ólafur Ragnar Grímsson, initially stated he would not seek re-election,[2][3][4] but then stated on 4 March that he would run for a fifth term, after receiving a petition of over 30,000 voters in favour of his candidacy.[5] Speaking in Selfoss, he said that "under normal circumstances I would have come to a different conclusion, but more than 30,000 Icelanders, which is a significant part of all the voters in Iceland, requested that I continue. Many significant matters that are likely to lead to conflict and confrontations are going to be on the agenda in the coming years."[6]
  • Thóra Arnórsdóttir, a journalist and news presenter. She announced her candidacy on 4 April and received the necessary 1,500 signatures in one weekend.

Others:

Two other candidates declared their intent to stand in the election, but later dropped out:[11]

  • Jón Lárusson, a police inspector charged with investigating tax fraud since the economic crisis. He claims to be apolitical and has opposed
    membership of the EU.[12]
  • Ástþór Magnússon, previously a candidate in the 2004 election, a businessman and pacifist, who announced his candidacy on 3 March 2012.[13]

Campaign

After trailing in the opinion polls, Ólafur resorted to a

Icesave repayments.[16]

Thóra told the

Morgunbladid that her lack of experience in politics was not a bad thing as she "think[s] that now is an opportunity to learn from the experience we have been through … and use it for a new beginning...[although the presidency is largely ceremonial, the position] has a great power of influence."[17]

Opinion polls

An opinion poll published on 21 May by the Institute of Social Sciences at the University of Iceland showed Thóra leading with 46.2%, with Ólafur on 37.8%. However, after she suspended her campaign as she was due to give birth, the gap narrowed as Ólafur stood alone as the leading campaigner.[12] An average of three poll prior to the election indicated Ólafur leading with 45% and Thóra in second place with 37.7% ahead of four other candidates.[6]

Name 11 and 12 April[18] 26 April[19]> 10 and 15 May[20] 8–18 May[21] 23 and 24 May[22] 1–5 June[23] 14–20 June[24] 22–26 June[25] 25–26 June[25]
Andrea Ólafsdóttir - - - 3.8 % 2.7 % 2.1 % 1.6 % 2.5 % 1.7 %
Ari Trausti Guðmundsson - 11.5 % 8.9 % 8.9 % 5.3 % 9.2 % 10.5 % 9.3 % 7.5 %
Ástþór Magnússon 1.5 % 0.8 % 0.9 % 0.4 % 0.9 % - - - -
Hannes Bjarnason 0.4 % 0.3 % 0.6 % 0.2 % 0.0 % 1.1 % 0.8 % 0.8 % 0.3 %
Herdís Þorgeirsdóttir 2.9 % 3.0 % 1,3 % 2.6 % 1.3 % 2.6 % 5.3 % 3.4 % 2.6 %
Jón Lárusson 1.2 % 0.6 % 1.0 % 0.1 % 1.2 % - - - -
Ólafur Ragnar Grímsson 46.0 % 34.8 % 41.3 % 37.8 % 53.9 % 45.8 % 44.8 % 50.8 % 57.0 %
Thóra Arnórsdóttir 46.5 % 49.0 % 43.4 % 46.2 % 35.3 % 39.3 % 37.0 % 33.6 % 30.8 %

Conduct

Voting centres were open from 9AM to 10PM. After having voted, Thóra said to

Gallup poll gives a strong indication of the outcome, but we will just count the votes and accept whatever that brings us. To have the possibility to topple the current president is a victory in itself." The same day Ólafur wrote in Morgunbladid: "Iceland is now at a crossroads. Behind us are difficult years. Ahead are decisions on the constitution and our relationship with other countries in Europe. There is still turbulence in the continent's economy and in many areas... The president...shall assist the country in tackling the biggest issues; they will determine the fate of Icelanders for decades."[14]

Results

CandidateVotes%
Ólafur Ragnar Grímsson84,03652.78
Thóra Arnórsdóttir52,79533.16
Ari Trausti Guðmundsson13,7628.64
Herdis Thorgeirsdottir4,1892.63
Andrea Ólafsdóttir2,8671.80
Hannes Bjarnason1,5560.98
Total159,205100.00
Valid votes159,20597.52
Invalid/blank votes4,0462.48
Total votes163,251100.00
Registered voters/turnout235,49569.32
Source: Nohlen & Stöver

Reactions

After partial results were released Thóra told

RUV: "This has been a valuable experience. Now I will take a holiday, attend to my new daughter and the other children and go on maternity leave and think how I can put this experience to use. To get more than one-third [of votes], I'm overwhelmed. I of course hoped to win. This is something you only do once in a lifetime," as she indicated she would not run in the next election.[26]

Analysis

According to Euronews, Ólafur's win was seen as having "emboldened a presidential office that had up until then played a mainly ceremonial role."[27]

If one of the female candidates had won, Iceland would have had nearly all its leading governing and religious positions held by women; the female president would be head of state, Jóhanna Sigurðardóttir would be head of government, Ásta Ragnheiður Jóhannesdóttir would be the Althing speaker, while Agnes M. Sigurðardóttir would have been the head of the Church of Iceland.[12]

Further reading

  • Gunnar, H. K., Indriðason, I.,H., & Viktor Orri Valgarðsson. (2012). What were the voters thinking? the presidential election in Iceland 2012. Stjórnmál Og Stjórnsýsla, 8(2), 221-244

References

  1. ^ "Icelandic PM wants public vote on new constitution". Icenews.is. 8 June 2012. Archived from the original on 3 January 2012. Retrieved 29 June 2012.
  2. ^ "Iceland's president might seek a fifth term". Goiceland.is. Archived from the original on 3 December 2013. Retrieved 29 June 2012.
  3. ^ "New Year's Address by the President of Iceland, Ólafur Ragnar Grímsson" (PDF). English.forseti.is. 1 January 2012. Archived from the original (PDF) on 20 October 2013. Retrieved 17 September 2016.
  4. ^ "Fréttir: Neitar að upplýsa hvort hann bjóði sig aftur fram" (in Icelandic). Ruv.is. Archived from the original on 10 January 2012. Retrieved 29 June 2012.
  5. ^ Valdimarsson, Omar R. (4 March 2012). "Iceland President Seeks Fifth Term After Petition From Voters". Bloomberg. Retrieved 29 June 2012.
  6. ^ a b c Valdimarsson, Omar R. "Iceland's Grimsson Sees Conflict as Record Re-Election Nears". Bloomberg. Retrieved 29 June 2012.
  7. ^ "Æska og uppvöxtur". herdis.is. 14 April 2012.
  8. ^ "Herdís fer í forsetann" (in Icelandic). mbl.is. Retrieved 29 June 2012.
  9. ^ "EWLA - President - Herdis THORGEIRSDOTTIR". Archived from the original on 9 April 2012. Retrieved 30 March 2012.
  10. ^ "Eighth Candidate Joins Iceland's Presidential Race". Icelandreview.com. Retrieved 29 June 2012.
  11. ^ a b "BBC News – Q&A: Iceland's presidential election". Bbc.co.uk. 29 June 2012. Retrieved 22 April 2013.
  12. ^ a b c d "Presidential election in iceland – 30th June 2012" (PDF). Retrieved 22 April 2013.[permanent dead link]
  13. ^ "First candidate revealed for Iceland presidential election". Icenews.is. 8 June 2012. Archived from the original on 18 March 2012. Retrieved 29 June 2012.
  14. ^ a b "Iceland president wins record fifth term – rest of the world – News". StarAfrica.com. 1 July 2012. Archived from the original on 1 July 2012. Retrieved 22 April 2013.
  15. ^ Baldini, Luisa (15 March 2012). "Election in Iceland: Campaigning with nappies in hand". Bbc.co.uk. Retrieved 29 June 2012.
  16. ^ "Defiance to secure Iceland president record 5th term". In.reuters.com. 9 February 2009. Retrieved 29 June 2012.
  17. ^ "Iceland to vote in presidential elections | IceNews – Daily News". Icenews.is. Retrieved 22 April 2013.
  18. ^ "22 prósent óákveðin – Þóra og Ólafur jöfn". Smugan.is. 13 April 2012. Archived from the original on 22 May 2012. Retrieved 29 June 2012.
  19. ^ "Þóra mælist með mest fylgi" (in Icelandic). mbl.is. Retrieved 29 June 2012.
  20. ^ "Top Presidential Candidates Neck-on-Neck in Polls". Icelandreview.com. Archived from the original on 3 July 2012. Retrieved 29 June 2012.
  21. ^ "Þóra með forskot á Ólaf" (in Icelandic). Ruv.is. 18 May 2012. Retrieved 29 June 2012.
  22. ^ "Ólafur Ragnar Takes Lead in Iceland Presidential Race". Icelandreview.com. Retrieved 29 June 2012.
  23. ^ "President of Iceland Still Gets Most Support in Polls". IcelandReview. 17 June 1944. Retrieved 29 June 2012.
  24. ^ "Both Top Presidential Candidates Lose Support". Icelandreview.com. Archived from the original on 28 June 2012. Retrieved 29 June 2012.
  25. ^ a b "Iceland Prepares to Elect New President". Icelandreview.com. Archived from the original on 2 February 2016. Retrieved 29 June 2012.
  26. ^ "Journalist admits defeat in Iceland vote – Europe". Al Jazeera English. Retrieved 22 April 2013.
  27. ^ [1][dead link]

External links

Candidates