Backus–Kehoe–Kydland puzzle
In economics, the Backus–Kehoe–Kydland consumption correlation puzzle, also known as the BKK puzzle, is the observation that consumption is much less correlated across countries than output.
Statement
In an
Backus, Kehoe, and Kydland (1992) calculate the correlation of HP-filtered consumption and output for 11 advanced countries relative to the US. The measured average consumption correlation was .19, whereas the average output correlation was .31. Obstfeld and Rogoff (1996)[3] reports average correlation of OECD countries with world consumption (35 “benchmark” countries) of .43, whereas the average OECD country’s output correlation with world benchmark is 0.52. The really puzzling part of these results is not that consumption levels are not perfectly correlated, but that they are less correlated than output. Apparently, there is hardly any risk sharing.
Obstfeld and Rogoff (2000) identifies this as one of the six major puzzles in international economics.
Attempts to account for the perceived anomaly
Stockman and Tesar (1995)[6] suggests two means of breaking the link between prices and quantities and making it hard for households to smooth consumption by trade. The first is nontraded goods: Suppose households like to consume goods that cannot be traded, like some services. If there is a positive technology shock raising their supply, they can’t smooth their consumption of these goods by exporting them abroad. The second is "taste shocks": If consumption rises in one country without any change in the economic environment, it will borrow abroad, driving up the interest rate and inducing the foreign country to cut back on its consumption. So consumption could be negatively correlated across countries.
References
- S2CID 55482662
- ISBN 978-0-691-04323-4
- ISBN 978-0-262-15047-7
- ISBN 978-0-262-02503-4
- JSTOR 2118002