Opinion polling for the 2010 Brazilian presidential election
Dilma Rousseff PT |
José Serra PSDB |
Marina Silva PV |
---|
Opinion polling for the
Election information
The first round of the 2010 Brazilian presidential election was held on October 3, as part of the country's general election, with a second round between the two leading candidates on October 31. That happened because under Brazilian law, if none of the candidates receives more than a half of the valid votes, a run-off is held four weeks after the first round.[2] The leading candidate, Dilma Rousseff, received 46.9% of the first-round vote, thereby making a second round necessary.
In the election, Brazilian citizens eligible to vote chose their successor to then-
Candidates overview
Since the earliest polls for president, former
Another potential candidate for the ruling center-left group was
Polls
The results displayed in this article excludes results for spontaneous polls (in which cards with the names of likely candidates are not presented to researched voters), due to the significant number of voters that would vote for
In September, Vox Populi institute began an unprecedented
First round
Pollster/client(s) | Date(s) conducted |
Rousseff PT |
Serra PSDB |
Silva PV |
Others | Abst. Undec. |
Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2010 election | 3 Oct | 46.91% | 32.61% | 19.33% | 1.15% | 8.64% | 14.3% |
Vox Populi | 2 Oct | 47% | 26% | 14% | 0% | 13% | 21% |
Ibope | 1–2 Oct | 47% | 29% | 16% | 0% | 8% | 18% |
Datafolha | 1–2 Oct | 47% | 29% | 16% | 0% | 8% | 18% |
Vox Populi | 1 Oct | 48% | 27% | 12% | 0% | 13% | 21% |
Vox Populi | 30 Sep | 49% | 26% | 12% | 0% | 13% | 23% |
Vox Populi | 29 Sep | 49% | 26% | 12% | 0% | 13% | 23% |
Datafolha | 28–29 Sep | 47% | 28% | 14% | 0% | 11% | 19% |
Vox Populi | 28 Sep | 49% | 25% | 12% | 0% | 14% | 24% |
Datafolha | 27 Sep | 46% | 28% | 14% | 0% | 12% | 18% |
Vox Populi | 27 Sep | 49% | 24% | 13% | 0% | 14% | 25% |
CNT/Sensus | 26–28 Sep | 47.5% | 25.6% | 11.6% | 0.0% | 15.3% | 21.9% |
Vox Populi | 26 Sep | 49% | 24% | 12% | 0% | 15% | 25% |
Ibope | 25–26 Sep | 50% | 27% | 13% | 0% | 10% | 23% |
Vox Populi | 25 Sep | 50% | 23% | 11% | 0% | 16% | 27% |
Vox Populi | 24 Sep | 50% | 24% | 10% | 0% | 16% | 26% |
Vox Populi | 23 Sep | 51% | 24% | 10% | 0% | 15% | 27% |
Vox Populi | 22 Sep | 51% | 24% | 10% | 0% | 15% | 27% |
Ibope | 21–23 Sep | 50% | 28% | 12% | 0% | 10% | 22% |
Datafolha | 21–22 Sep | 49% | 28% | 13% | 0% | 10% | 21% |
Vox Populi | 21 Sep | 52% | 25% | 9% | 0% | 14% | 27% |
Vox Populi | 20 Sep | 53% | 23% | 9% | 0% | 15% | 30% |
Vox Populi | 19 Sep | 53% | 24% | 9% | 0% | 14% | 29% |
Vox Populi | 18 Sep | 51% | 24% | 9% | 0% | 16% | 27% |
Vox Populi | 17 Sep | 51% | 23% | 9% | 0% | 17% | 28% |
Vox Populi | 16 Sep | 51% | 23% | 9% | 0% | 17% | 28% |
Vox Populi | 15 Sep | 52% | 22% | 9% | 0% | 17% | 30% |
Ibope | 14–17 Sep | 51% | 25% | 11% | 0% | 13% | 26% |
Vox Populi | 14 Sep | 53% | 22% | 8% | 0% | 17% | 31% |
Datafolha | 13–15 Sep | 51% | 27% | 11% | 0% | 11% | 24% |
Vox Populi | 13 Sep | 54% | 22% | 8% | 0% | 16% | 32% |
Vox Populi | 12 Sep | 53% | 23% | 9% | 0% | 15% | 30% |
Vox Populi | 12 Sep | 52% | 23% | 9% | 0% | 16% | 29% |
CNT/Sensus | 10–12 Sep | 50.5% | 26.4% | 8.9% | 0.0% | 14.2% | 24.1% |
Vox Populi | 10 Sep | 53% | 22% | 9% | 0% | 16% | 31% |
Vox Populi | 9 Sep | 53% | 21% | 9% | 0% | 17% | 32% |
Datafolha | 8–9 Sep | 50% | 27% | 11% | 0% | 12% | 23% |
Vox Populi | 8 Sep | 54% | 21% | 9% | 0% | 15% | 33% |
Vox Populi | 7 Sep | 56% | 21% | 8% | 0% | 15% | 35% |
Vox Populi | 6 Sep | 55% | 22% | 8% | 0% | 15% | 33% |
Vox Populi | 5 Sep | 53% | 24% | 8% | 0% | 15% | 29% |
Vox Populi | 4 Sep | 53% | 24% | 8% | 0% | 15% | 29% |
Vox Populi | 3 Sep | 52% | 24% | 8% | 0% | 16% | 28% |
Datafolha | 2–3 Sep | 50% | 28% | 10% | 0% | 12% | 22% |
Vox Populi | 2 Sep | 51% | 25% | 9% | 0% | 15% | 26% |
Vox Populi | 1 Sep | 51% | 25% | 9% | 0% | 15% | 26% |
Ibope | 31 Aug–2 Sep | 51% | 27% | 8% | 0% | 14% | 24% |
Ibope | 24–26 Aug | 51% | 27% | 7% | 0% | 15% | 24% |
Datafolha | 23–24 Aug | 49% | 29% | 9% | 0% | 13% | 20% |
CNT/Sensus | 20–22 Aug | 46.0% | 28.1% | 8.1% | 1.3%[a] | 17.8% | 17.9% |
Datafolha | 20 Aug | 47% | 30% | 9% | 0% | 14% | 17% |
Ibope | 12–15 Aug | 43% | 32% | 8% | 0% | 17% | 11% |
Datafolha | 9–12 Aug | 41% | 33% | 10% | 0% | 16% | 8% |
Vox Populi | 7–10 Aug | 45% | 29% | 8% | 0% | 18% | 16% |
Ibope | 2–5 Aug | 39% | 34% | 8% | 0% | 19% | 5% |
CNT/Sensus | 31 Jul–2 Aug | 41.6% | 31.6% | 8.5% | 4.4%[b] | 18.3% | 10% |
Ibope | 26–29 Jul | 39% | 34% | 7% | 0% | 19% | 5% |
Datafolha | 20–23 Jul | 36% | 37% | 10% | 0% | 17% | 1% |
Vox Populi | 17–20 Aug | 41% | 33% | 8% | 0% | 17% | 8% |
Datafolha | 30 Jun–1 Jul | 38% | 39% | 10% | 0% | 12% | 1% |
Ibope | 27–30 Jun | 39% | 39% | 10% | 0% | 13% | Tie |
Vox Populi | 24–26 Jun | 40% | 35% | 8% | 0% | 17% | 5% |
CNI/Ibope | 19–21 Jun | 40% | 35% | 9% | 0% | 16% | 5% |
Ibope | 31 May–3 Jun | 37% | 37% | 9% | 0% | 17% | Tie |
Datafolha | 20–21 May | 37% | 37% | 12% | 0% | 14% | Tie |
CNT/Sensus | 10–14 May | 35.7% | 33.2% | 8.0% | 2.2%[c] | 17.3% | 2.5% |
Vox Populi | 8–13 May | 38% | 35% | 7% | 0% | 22% | 3% |
Datafolha | 15–16 Apr | 28% | 38% | 10% | 10%[d] | 15% | 10% |
Ibope | 13–16 Apr | 29% | 36% | 8% | 8%[e] | 19% | 7% |
CNT/Sensus | 5–9 Apr | 32.4% | 32.7% | 8.1% | 10.1%[f] | 16.7% | 0.3% |
Vox Populi | 30–31 Mar | 31% | 34% | 5% | 10%[g] | 20% | 3% |
Datafolha | 25–26 Mar | 27% | 36% | 8% | 11%[h] | 18% | 9% |
Ibope | 6–10 Mar | 30% | 35% | 6% | 11%[h] | 18% | 5% |
Datafolha | 24–25 Feb | 28% | 32% | 8% | 12%[i] | 19% | 4% |
Ibope | 6–9 Feb | 25% | 36% | 8% | 11%[h] | 20% | 11% |
CNT/Sensus | 25–29 Jan | 27.8% | 33.2% | 6.8% | 11.9%[j] | 20.3% | 5.4% |
Vox Populi | 14–17 Jan | 27% | 34% | 9% | 11%[h] | 19% | 7% |
Datafolha | 14–18 Dec 2009 | 23% | 37% | 8% | 13%[k] | 19% | 14% |
Ibope | 26–30 Nov 2009 | 17% | 38% | 6% | 13%[k] | 25% | 21% |
CNT/Sensus | 23 Nov 2009 | 21.7% | 31.8% | 5.9% | 17.5%[l] | 23.1% | 10.1% |
Vox Populi | 11 Nov 2009 | 19% | 36% | 3% | 19%[m] | 23% | 17% |
CNT/Sensus | 8 Sep 2009 | 19% | 39.5% | 4.8% | 9.7%[n] | 27% | 20.5% |
Vox Populi | 18 Aug 2009 | 21% | 30% | – | 29%[o] | 20% | 9% |
Datafolha | 16 Aug 2009 | 17% | 38% | 3% | 26%[p] | 18% | 21% |
Ibope | 9 Jun 2009 | 18% | 38% | – | 19%[q] | 25% | 20% |
Datafolha | 28 May 2009 | 16% | 38% | – | 25%[r] | 21% | 22% |
Datafolha | 19 Mar 2009 | 11% | 41% | – | 27%[s] | 21% | 25% |
Datafolha | 28 Nov 2008 | 8% | 41% | – | 29%[t] | 21% | 26% |
Datafolha | 27 Mar 2008 | 3% | 38% | – | 34%[u] | 25% | 18% |
Second round
Pollster/client(s) | Date(s) conducted |
Rousseff PT |
Serra PSDB |
Abst. Undec. |
Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2010 election | 31 Oct | 56.05% | 43.95% | 6.70% | 12.1% |
Vox Populi | 30 Oct | 51% | 39% | 10% | 12% |
Datafolha | 29–30 Oct | 51% | 41% | 8% | 10% |
CNT/Sensus | 28–29 Oct | 50.3% | 37.6% | 12.1% | 12.7% |
Datafolha | 28 Oct | 50% | 40% | 10% | 10% |
Ibope | 27–30 Oct | 52% | 40% | 8% | 12% |
Datafolha | 27 Oct | 49% | 38% | 13% | 11% |
Ibope | 26–28 Oct | 52% | 39% | 9% | 13% |
CNT/Sensus | 23–25 Oct | 51.9% | 36.7% | 11.4% | 15.2% |
Vox Populi | 23–24 Oct | 49% | 38% | 13% | 11% |
Datafolha | 21 Oct | 50% | 40% | 10% | 10% |
CNT/Sensus | 18–19 Oct | 46.8% | 41.8% | 11.4% | 5.0% |
Ibope | 17–20 Oct | 51% | 40% | 9% | 11% |
Vox Populi | 15–17 Oct | 51% | 39% | 10% | 12% |
Datafolha | 14–15 Oct | 47% | 41% | 12% | 6% |
CNT/Sensus | 11–13 Oct | 46.8% | 42.7% | 10.5 | 4.1% |
Ibope | 11–13 Oct | 49% | 43% | 8% | 6% |
Vox Populi | 10–11 Oct | 48% | 40% | 12% | 8% |
Datafolha | 8 Oct | 48% | 41% | 11% | 7% |
Notes
- ^ Eymael (PSDC) with 0.3%; Plínio de Arruda (PSOL) with 0.4%; Rui Costa (PCO) with 0.2%; José Maria (PSTU) with 0.4%
- ^ Ivan Pinheiro (PCB) with 0.1%; Eymael (PSDC) with 0.5%; Levy Fidelix (PRTB) with 0.1%; Plínio de Arruda (PSOL) with 1.7%; Rui Costa (PCO) with 0.1%; José Maria (PSTU) with 1.9%
- ^ Eymael (PSDC) with 1.1%; Levy Fidelix (PRTB) with 0.1%; Plínio de Arruda Sampaio (PSOL) with 0.4%; Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO) with 0.2%; José Maria (PSTU) with 0.4%
- ^ Ciro Gomes (PSB) with 9%; José Maria (PSTU) with 1%
- ^ Ciro Gomes (PSB) with 8%
- ^ Ciro Gomes (PSB) with 10.1%
- ^ Ciro Gomes (PSB) with 10%
- ^ a b c d Ciro Gomes (PSB) with 11%
- ^ Ciro Gomes (PSB) with 12%
- ^ Ciro Gomes (PSB) with 11.9%
- ^ a b Ciro Gomes (PSB) with 13%
- ^ Ciro Gomes (PSB) with 17.5%
- ^ Ciro Gomes (PSB) with 13%; Heloísa Helena (PSOL) with 6%
- ^ Heloísa Helena (PSOL) with 9.7%
- ^ Ciro Gomes (PSB) with 17%; Heloísa Helena (PSOL) with 12%
- ^ Ciro Gomes (PSB) with 14%; Heloísa Helena (PSOL) with 12%
- ^ Ciro Gomes (PSB) with 12%; Heloísa Helena (PSOL) with 7%
- ^ Ciro Gomes (PSB) with 15%; Heloísa Helena (PSOL) with 10%
- ^ Ciro Gomes (PSB) with 16%; Heloísa Helena (PSOL) with 11%
- ^ Ciro Gomes (PSB) with 15%; Heloísa Helena (PSOL) with 14%
- ^ Ciro Gomes (PSB) with 20%; Heloísa Helena (PSOL) with 14%
References
- ^ (in Portuguese) "Confira o calendário eleitoral 2010". Terra.
- ^ Colitt, Raymond. "Key dates in Brazil's 2010 presidential race". Reuters. January 11, 2010.
- ^ Barrionuevo, Alexei. "The Health of a Likely Presidential Candidate Comes Under Brazil's Microscope". The New York Times, May 23, 2009. Accessed June 14, 2009.
- ^ Colitt, Raymond. "Positions of Brazil's leading candidates". Reuters. January 11, 2010.
- ^ Freedom House (July 16, 2009). "Freedom in the World 2009 - Brazil". UNHCR. Archived from the original on July 24, 2011. Retrieved May 14, 2010.
In early 1994, Fernando Henrique Cardoso (...) forged a three-party, centre-right coalition around his Brazilian Social Democracy Party (PSDB).
- ^ a b c Colitt, Raymond. "Key names in Brazil's 2010 presidential race". Reuters. December 17, 2010.
- ISSN 0011-5258.
Most analysts defined PSDB as center-left as of its foundation (...) The story changed after 1994, with the election of PSDB to the Presidency. A rhetoric of overcoming the classical ideological divisions (...) was one of the justifications for the grand parliamentary alliance center and right-wing parties (...). As a matter of fact, after the 1994 election, most analysts starting defining PSDB as a centrist party along with PMDB
- ^ "Ciro Gomes diz que decisão do PSB foi 'erro tático'". 27 April 2010.
- ^ a b (in Portuguese) Faria, Tales. "PSol aprova resolução para se afastar de Marina Silva". Último Segundo. December 8, 2009.
- Globo.com. Retrieved on 2009-08-15.
External links
- Results of polls in Brazil at Angus Reid Global Monitorofficial website
- (in Portuguese) Poll tracker at the Supreme Electoral Courtofficial website
- (in Portuguese) Poll tracker at UOL Eleições
- (in Portuguese) Datafolha polls for the 2010 elections
- (in Portuguese) Vox Populi polls for the 2010 elections
- (in Portuguese) Results of the CNT/Sensus general search