Talk:2010 FIFA World Cup qualification – UEFA Group 9

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I can't find any source saying that the time table will be decided on December 14th. Where did that info come from? 24.237.218.205 (talk) 03:46, 30 November 2007 (UTC)[reply]

If I'm right Dutch can reach World Cup if they win against Macedonia AND Scotland and Iceland draw. --Simy69 (talk) 14:59, 30 March 2009 (UTC)[reply]

I was wrong. I didn't count with Norway :). Sorry for that --Simy69 (talk) 15:02, 30 March 2009 (UTC)[reply]

I don't know how to edit the actual table, but it shows Norway having played 5 games when they have only played four and should be adjusted. —Preceding unsigned comment added by 71.248.27.143 (talk) 20:34, 6 June 2009 (UTC)[reply]

I know that needs to be changed. —Preceding unsigned comment added by 86.10.100.179 (talk) 20:44, 6 June 2009 (UTC)[reply]

Should scenarios be included under which a playoff berth for Norway can be guaranteed or ruled out? If so, there appears to be one scenario that eliminates them on the next matchday:

• Sweden (Group 1) defeat Denmark AND
• Greece and Latvia (Group 2) do not draw AND
• Slovenia (Group 3) defeat Slovakia AND
• Bosnia and Herzegovina (Group 5) do not lose to Estonia AND
• France (Group 7) defeat Faroe Islands AND
• Republic of Ireland (Group 8) do not lose to Italy.

All group runners-up would then finish with at least 17 points before adjustment, and therefore cannot finish with fewer than 11 adjusted points. This might be overkill, but it could be useful information. PiGuy314 (talk) 01:51, 11 September 2009 (UTC)[reply]

I think if all the details are definately true, it should be included. True, it's a lot of info, but people don't have to read it. Aheyfromhome (talk) 18:31, 11 September 2009 (UTC)[reply]

I haven't made any calculations but is it even possible for Norway to make it? Not only facts like "Oh Portugal are gonna play Malta and surely they're gonna win" but more like teams will take to many points. Like Hungary and Portugal play next game and one team will end that game with a better record than Norway (Hungary on goal difference or Portugal on points) chandler 21:17, 11 September 2009 (UTC)[reply]

It's certainly possible (though not likely). For instance, in Group 3 if Slovenia lose twice, Northern Ireland lose to Czech Republic, Poland beats Czech Republic but loses to Slovakia, then Czech Republic will finish second with 15 points, but the six against San Marino don't count and Norway will have 10 points to Czech Republic's 9. (This is why Group 3 results still matter: Slovenia will have more adjusted points than Norway, but they could lose to San Marino and finish behind a team that has fewer adjusted points. They have to finish second in all games, including those against the last-place team, and have more adjusted points than Norway.) PiGuy314 (talk) 08:07, 12 September 2009 (UTC)[reply]

One further correction: A France draw leaves them on 16, but with 12 adjusted points (since Faroe Islands have already clinched last place). Austria could not then tie with them; they could only catch France by winning twice, getting to 17 points (11 adjusted, also ahead of Norway). PiGuy314 (talk) 04:43, 4 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

I'm not sure about all of the set-ups. Group 1 is right. But in Group 2 there are a number of ways that GRE-LVA draw and the guaranteed r-u level still rises to 11 (for example, GRE-LVA draw, LUX d SUI and ISR don't defeat MDA (this could be wrong but it's what I'm seeing). Basically the premise is correct though, Norway could be eliminated if even group lifts its RU level to 11, which is possible - just not exactly as currently stated. Jlsa (talk) 05:06, 4 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

A bit of a check suggests it's only 2 and 7 that I have any problems with. In Group 7, if FRO d FRA, the level still rises if Serbia gets a better result than Austria. And the Group 2 situation above is actually the only other one I've got. Jlsa (talk) 05:10, 4 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

So, this is my suggestion (I'll let PiGuy confirm because if he agrees it should be right).

On the next matchday (10 October)

• Norway will be eliminated if each of the following six conditions are met:
  • Sweden (
    Group 1
    ) defeat Denmark
  • either:
    • the Greece-Latvia match (
      Group 2
      ) does not end in a draw, OR
    • Luxembourg (
      Group 2
      ) defeat Switzerland AND Israel do not defeat Moldova
  • Slovenia (
    Group 3
    ) defeat Slovakia
  • Bosnia and Herzegovina (
    Group 5
    ) do not lose to Estonia
  • either:
    • France (
      Group 7
      ) do not lose to Faroe Islands, OR
    • Serbia (
      Group 7
      ) get a better result than Austria
  • Republic of Ireland (
    Group 8
    ) do not lose to Italy.

You might want to spell out what "get a better result" means (Serbia defeat Romania AND Austria do not defeat Lithuania OR Serbia draw with Romania AND Austria loses to Lithuania.)

Jlsa (talk) 05:19, 4 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

Ah. I see why that works for Group 2 - you end up in Group 2 with "either Greece beat Luxembourg and get to 17+ pre-adjustment, or Moldova finish last and nobody relevant got the full six against them". If Israel beat Moldova then they can finish second with 15 and the full six against Moldova, but if they don't nobody can finish second with the full six and less than 17 overall. As for Group 7 (always assuming a France loss): if Austria win, then draw with France, it's always possible for Lithuania to finish last and France got the full six against them (and would therefore have 10). If Austria draw, it would have to be a France-Austria draw again (otherwise Austria wins on goal difference and didn't get the full six against anyone who could finish last, or France wins and gets more than enough), and France could only have the full six against Lithuania (who can't finish last if Romania lose). If Austria lose and Romania don't win, either France or Lithuania will come in second, with neither getting the full six against Romania or Faroe. If Austria lose and Romania do win, however, Romania could get second place with the full six against Faroe. So it looks right. I'd been mostly worried about the scenarios where a team clinches 17+ (when the last-place team is unknown) since there's still some variability due to who finishes last. I'll make the update. PiGuy314 (talk) 18:54, 4 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

The new version looks good. BUT. There is still the possibility that it isn't quite accurate. There is a possibility that some results will mean that a worst case scenario for a team in group 1-8 could finish on 10 ru pts but to have ensured that in that case their goal difference would have to be better than Norway's (because it requires a win/draw in their last match or they are playing a definite 6th placed team). As to whether that is the case - I haven't worked it through!!!! Jlsa (talk) 06:07, 5 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

I think I found one such scenario. In Group 3, if Czech Republic beat Poland, then they will face Northern Ireland with one of those teams hitting at least 16 (best case for Norway, it's a draw and Czech reach 16). If Slovenia win either match, they'll hit 17 and whoever finishes second will have to be ahead of Norway anyway; if they draw twice, in this scenario they would lose to Czech on goal difference. Czech are +9 right now, but +10 against San Marino (therefore, adjusted to -1); a four-goal win would be enough to clinch goal difference over Norway in this scenario (if they don't draw with Northern Ireland after beating Poland, that game's winner will be ahead at 11+ adjusted anyway, and the only team that could tie them at 16 could only do so with a worse goal difference). Winning by three would also do it as long as it's not 3-0; that would give them +2 adjusted goal difference and 9 or more adjusted goals (Norway has 9) with more away goals (3-1). (3-0 followed by a scoreless draw against Northern Ireland would leave them short if Slovenia don't pick up enough points to jump them.) So Group 3 becomes:

• Slovenia defeat Slovakia, OR
• Czech Republic defeat Poland by at least three goals and score at least four goals.

Group 8 should be good as is. Haven't had time to look at the rest yet. PiGuy314 (talk) 05:32, 7 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

having just worked out how the question should be asked I agree. That would set them up in Group 3. Jlsa (talk) 05:48, 7 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

At the moment, Portugal leads Hungary 1-0. Assume it stands, and they finish at 16 pts, +6 on goals. If they lose their last match by 2, and Sweden draws, then both at at 16 with Sweden +5 and Portugal +4 (assume Hungary does not win). If we disregard Sweden's scores against Malta, then Sweden has 10 points and is +0 on goals...inferior to Norway. 76.173.211.252 (talk) 21:09, 10 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

If Portugal wins 1-0, their final result for the table would be 10 points and goal difference +2, the result against Malta on wednesday doesn't count, the other tiebreaker is the number of goals scored there Norway would be 10 against Portugal's +7 —Preceding unsigned comment added by 190.157.86.253 (talk) 21:18, 10 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

But if Portugal and Sweden are both at 16 points, their results against Malta would count for determining 2nd place in Group 1. So under the scenario I described, Sweden would be #2 and Portugal #3. And Norway would be ahead of Sweden. 76.173.211.252 (talk) 21:23, 10 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

Portugal has 16 while Sweden has 15, and the results against Malta doen't count, what about a portuguese loss and a tie beetwen Sweden and Albania? —Preceding unsigned comment added by 190.157.86.253 (talk) 22:05, 10 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

It would go to goal difference between Portugal and Sweden (and, if Hungary beats Denmark, Hungary as well). If Portugal wins that, they're in (because they would have 13 points after throwing out the split with Malta). If Sweden does, however, Norway advances (Sweden would have 10 points and a +0 goal difference after throwing out a 4-0, 1-0 sweep of Malta). If Hungary wins it at +5 (tied with Sweden but scoring more goals), Norway still advances as that would fall to +1 after throwing out the 3-0, 1-0 sweep of Malta. If Hungary wins it at +6 or higher, though, Hungary would advance (that would require them to score at least five goals, so even if it's +6 and they tie with Norway on goal difference, they would have 10 goals scored against teams other than Malta to Norway's 9).

Norway can still qualify, but it requires a lot of things to fall right - Sweden or Hungary (or both) must end up at exactly 16 and win the tiebreaker over Portugal and, in Hungary's case, do it without winning by enough to win the tiebreaker over Norway as well. PiGuy314 (talk) 22:31, 10 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

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