Threat Matrix (database)

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For the television series, see Threat Matrix.
Pakistan's location within Asia.

The Threat Matrix is an

Yousaf Raza Gillani. The program identifies the military's operational priorities and goes beyond in comprehensively describing both existential and non-existential threats to the country. The Threat Matrix program is viewed to become a permanent fixture of the national security policy of Pakistan.[2]

The database's comprehensive existence was revealed by political scientist Dr.

media. In his published thesis Saleem critically opined that the source of all existential threats has always been a state actor(s), not a non-state on, the armed forces.[1]

Program overview

Conventional threats vs. sub-conventional threats

"Sub-conventional threat is a reality and is a part of a threat matrix faced by our country. But it doesn't mean that the conventional threat has receded."

Maj. Gen.

Express Tribune, January 3, 2013).[3]

The Threat Matrix has two defined dimensions: conventional threats and sub-conventional threats. Conventional threats are external threats to national security from outside the country, and sub-conventional threats refer to internal threats to national security from within the country.

Pakistan military.[3]

According to the

War in Afghanistan, with factors like militant insurgency and future US pullout in Afghanistan having an intertwined effect on the conflict in Pakistan. According to Lieutenant-General Khalid Rabbani, commander of the XI Corps in Peshawar, the withdrawal of foreign combat troops from Afghanistan since 2014 may trigger some challenging ramifications for Pakistan in terms of the threat matrix of Afghanistan: "If they are leaving and giving a notion of success to the Taliban of Afghanistan, this notion of success may have a snowballing effect on to the threat matrix of Afghanistan."[7]

Along with the challenges posed at the western front, India still retains an important focus in

Outlook India thinks that Pakistan's fast-growing nuclear arsenal, expanding at a greater rate than India's. during a charged sociopolitical atmosphere in the country is rapidly changing the dynamics of the nuclear matrix of the region and tactically underscores the Pakistani military establishment's "India-centric threat matrix."[9]

In 2016, the Pakistan Navy revealed it was developing a "maritime doctrine" in response to an evolving conventional and subconventional threat matrix in the region of the Indian Ocean. The doctrine would aim to protect Pakistan's maritime interests in the region.[10]

Debates and rational thesis

According to J. Berkshire Miller of The Diplomat, "The military establishment in Pakistan, meanwhile, still views its Threat Matrix through an India-centric lens—Pakistan genuinely believes, rightly or wrongly, that India continues to work aggressively against its strategic interests through bribery and espionage in Afghanistan."[11]

In his comprehensive thesis, Minimum Deterrence: Pakistan's Dilemma, published at the

nuclear weapons capability," and "the acquisition of nuclear weapons hence became Pakistan's highest national security objective, with unanimity across all parts of the political spectrum. This was augmented by the strong perception that outside powers could not be relied upon in moments of crisis and war."[12]

The term also has economic connotations. For instance, US Secretary of State

war against militancy: "this economic crisis, left unresolved, will create massive unemployment. It will upend governments, it will, unfortunately, breed instability.... I appreciated putting that into the context of the Threat Matrix, because look at Pakistan, a country that we know has to be stabilized for the benefit of not only South Asia, but beyond."[13]

Military exercise and programming

Main article: Pakistan military exercises

In June 2013, the Pakistan Armed Forces started a joint-war game exercise, codenamed Azm-i-Nau IV, in which the aim was to update the military's "readiness strategy for dealing with the complex security threat environment." The objective of the exercise was to assess military tactics, procedures and techniques in the event of an emerging threat environment, and explore joint operations strategies in response to combating the threat with all three branches of the military: the Army, Air Force and Navy.[14]

The exercise took place amid renewed fears of the situation in Afghanistan post-withdrawal of coalition forces in 2014 as well as the "continuing internal threat of terrorism and India's growing regional ambitions." The newspaper Dawn reported: "A senior military official said [the] war games were meant for coming up with a comprehensive response to all threats. He explained that the threat matrix was evolving and transforming. It includes both the internal challenge from terror groups of various shades and the conventional threat of external aggression."[14]

From 2009, the Azm-i-Nau exercises are aimed at preempting India's Cold Start doctrine and improving a joint armed forces response to any conventional threat.[15]

Scope

In a work published by Dr.

cyber and economic, are non-existential in nature because they are asymmetric in sense between belligerents that possess "unequal military resources and the weaker opponent uses unconventional weapons and tactics to exploit the vulnerabilities of the enemy."[1]

The government and military science officials describing the Threat Matrix program as legally and morally sound when a recent joint military exercises were conducted to rapidly respond to the threat matrix, which falls in the category of low-intensity conflict being confronted in some areas of the country.[16]

Soon after the revelation of the program to international media by the ISPR, the international media quoted the change of policy as in what is being seen as a "paradigm shift" in the country's policy.[17][18]

However, Pakistani political science scholar, Ghazi Salahuddin, remains uncertain if this can be described as a "paradigm shift."[19]

See also

References

  1. ^ a b c d e f Dr. Farrukh Salim (10 February 2013). "Threat Matrix". Dr. Farrukh Salim, The News International. Retrieved 8 June 2013.
  2. ^ Shakil Shaikh (5 January 2013). "Corps commanders finalise terror war strategy". Retrieved 8 June 2013.
  3. ^ a b c d By Our Correspondent (3 January 2013). "New doctrine". Express Tribune, 2013. Retrieved 8 June 2013.
  4. ^ Jamil, Mohammad (8 January 2013). "Pak military's operational priorities". Pakistan Observer. Retrieved 9 June 2013.
  5. National Defence University, Islamabad
    . February 2012. p. 24. Retrieved 9 June 2013.
  6. ^ Joshua, Anita (3 January 2013). "Terrorists replace India in Pak. 'danger' list". The Hindu. Retrieved 9 June 2012.
  7. ^ "Corps commander interview: 'Perceptions of Taliban victory dangerous'". The Express Tribune. 21 April 2012. Retrieved 8 June 2013.
  8. ^ "Nawaz Sharif gets it right on India". The Express Tribune. 15 August 2011. Retrieved 8 June 2013.
  9. ^ Pant, Harsh V. (16 February 2011). "The Changing Nuclear Matrix". Outlook India. Retrieved 9 June 2013.
  10. ^ "Pakistan developing maritime doctrine". Dawn. 6 September 2016. Retrieved 6 September 2016.
  11. ^ Miller, J. Berkshire (12 April 2011). "The CIA's Pakistan Endgame". The Diplomat. Retrieved 9 June 2013.
  12. ^ a b Khan, Feroz Hassan. "Minimum Deterrence: Pakistan's Dilemma (Small Nuclear Forces – Five Perspectives)" (PDF). p. 67.
  13. ^ "Terrorists have found a haven in Pakistan, says US". Rediff. 19 February 2009. Retrieved 9 June 2013.
  14. ^ a b "Army opens war games 'Azm-i-Nau IV'". Dawn. Karachi, Pakistan. 4 June 2013. Archived from the original on 10 August 2013.
  15. ^ "Pakistan Army to preempt India's 'Cold Start Doctrine'". The Express Tribune. Karachi, Pakistan. 16 June 2013. Archived from the original on 20 June 2013.
  16. ^ Shakil Shaikh, Shaikh (9 January 2013). "Be ready to deal with any threats". The News International, military desk. Retrieved 8 June 2013.
  17. ^ Joshua, Anita (3 January 2013). "Terrorists replace India in Pak. 'danger' list". The Hindu. Retrieved 8 June 2013.
  18. ^ Brown, Hayes (4 January 2013). "In Huge Shift, Pakistan Recognizes Militants As Top Threat". Security think. Retrieved 8 June 2013.
  19. ^ Ghazi Salahuddin (6 January 2013). "The Heart of the Matter". The News International, Ghazi. Retrieved 8 June 2013.
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