Voter segments in political polling

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Voter segments in political polling in the United States consist of all adults, registered voters, and likely voters.

Definitions

Political opinion polling in the United States usually surveys one of three population segments.

• All adults are polls in which all Americans age 18 and older have been surveyed. These polls represent the aggregate opinion of all United States residents, regardless of voting eligibility or intent.^[1][2]
• Registered voters are polls in which only Americans who are
  registered to vote are surveyed. These polls represent the aggregate opinion only of citizens who would be legally able to cast a vote if the election were held on the day the poll was taken and, therefore, necessarily exclude non-citizen residents and, in many jurisdictions, the mentally ill and convicted felons.^[1][2]
• Likely voters are polls in which only Americans who are (a) registered voters, and who, (b) have indicated a high intent of actually voting in the next election, are surveyed.[1]^[2]

Relative values

According to the

A 2020 report from the Pew Research Center found that in 2018 and 2019, "34% of registered voters identified as independent, compared with 33% who identify as Democrats and 29% who identify as Republicans. The share of registered voters who identify with the Republican Party is up 3 percentage points, from 26% in 2017, while there has been no change in the share who identify as Democrats." The report found wide differences among partisans based on race, gender, and education. The report notes that women are likelier than men to identify with the Democratic Party. The study found that "underlying the gender gap in leaned party identification is a gender difference in voters’ straight party identification: Men are more likely to identify as Republicans (31%) than Democrats (26%), while the reverse is true among women (39% identify as Democrats, 28% as Republicans)."^{[9] [10]}

Methods for identifying "likely voters"

Polls targeting "likely voters" generally begin with a list of known registered voters and then ask respondents a series of screening questions before the survey is conducted. Often this can simply be "are you going to vote on Election Day?" with respondents who answer "yes" to the question being included in the survey's final results, and those who answer "no" being excluded.^[11] In other cases, complex formulas that account for a variety of demographic and psychographic variables are applied.^[11] Pollsters also ask respondents about their past voting history and their intention to vote on Election Day. ^[12]

References