2008 United States Senate election in North Carolina
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Hagan: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Dole: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% | |||||||||||||||||
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Elections in North Carolina |
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The 2008 United States Senate election in North Carolina was held on Tuesday, November 4, 2008. The
The November general election was the first time in North Carolina history, and only the eighth time in U.S. history, that the two major-party candidates for a U.S. Senate seat were both women. In addition, Hagan became the only Democrat to win a North Carolina U.S. Senate race since 1998, and the first woman to defeat an incumbent woman in a U.S. Senate election.
As of 2024, this is the last time that a Democratic candidate won a U.S. Senate race in the state of North Carolina.
Democratic primary
Candidates
- Kay Hagan, State Senator
- Duskin Lassiter, trucker
- Jim Neal, businessman
- Howard Staley, doctor
- Marcus Williams, attorney
Campaign
Hagan, initially an unknown politician, decided to challenge incumbent Republican Senator Elizabeth Dole.[2]
National Democrats attempted to recruit incumbent Governor
Neal earned the endorsement of the Black Political Caucus of Charlotte-Mecklenburg. He also was endorsed by Blue America PAC, eQualityGiving, the
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Kay Hagan | 801,920 | 60.1% | |
Democratic | Jim Neal | 239,623 | 18.0% | |
Democratic | Marcus W. Williams | 170,970 | 12.8% | |
Democratic | Duskin Lassiter | 62,136 | 4.6% | |
Democratic | Howard Staley | 60,403 | 4.5% | |
Total votes | 1,335,052 | 100.0% |
Republican primary
Candidates
- Elizabeth Dole, incumbent U.S. Senator
- Pete DiLauro
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Elizabeth Dole (incumbent) | 460,665 | 90.0% | |
Republican | Pete DiLauro | 51,406 | 10.0% | |
Total votes | 512,071 | 100.0% |
General election
Candidates
- Chris Cole (L), perennial candidate
- Elizabeth Dole (R), incumbent U.S. Senator
- Kay Hagan (D), State Senator
Campaign
Dole was initially a heavy favorite for reelection, especially after several potential top-tier challengers such as Congressman
Hagan was initially given little chance against Dole, but Hagan was helped by independent
In late October, Dole released a controversial television ad attacking Hagan for reportedly taking donations from individuals involved in the
Hagan, who is a member of the
The ad has met exceptionally strong criticism from the public as well as many local and several national media outlets. CNN's
Predictions
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[27]
|
Tossup | October 23, 2008 |
CQ Politics[28] | Lean D (flip) | October 31, 2008 |
Rothenberg Political Report[29] | Lean D (flip) | November 2, 2008 |
Real Clear Politics[30]
|
Tossup | November 2, 2008 |
Polling
Polls released during the week of October 28, 2008 showed Dole and Hagan within the statistical margin of error (3% apart).[2]
Poll source | Dates administered | Kay Hagan (D) |
Elizabeth Dole (R) |
---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | February 18, 2008 | 33% | 50% |
Rasmussen Reports | April 10, 2008 | 39% | 52% |
Research 2000/Daily Kos | April 28–30, 2008 | 41% | 48% |
Rasmussen Reports | May 8, 2008 | 48% | 47% |
Public Policy Polling | May 8–9, 2008 | 43% | 48% |
Civitas Institute/ Tel Opinion Research |
May 14–17, 2008 | 43% | 45% |
Survey USA | May 17–19, 2008 | 46% | 50% |
Public Policy Polling | May 28–29, 2008 | 39% | 47% |
Anzalone Liszt Research | June 4, 2008 | 44% | 48% |
Rasmussen Reports | June 10, 2008 | 39% | 53% |
Civitas Institute/ Tel Opinion Research |
June 11–13, 2008 | 38% | 48% |
The Tarrance Group | July 9, 2008 | 36% | 51% |
Survey USA | July 14, 2008 | 42% | 54% |
Rasmussen Reports | July 15, 2008 | 43% | 54% |
Public Policy Polling | July 23–27, 2008 | 40% | 49% |
Research 2000/Daily Kos | July 28–30, 2008 | 42% | 50% |
Insider Advantage | August 19, 2008 | 40% | 40% |
Public Policy Polling | August 23, 2008 | 42% | 39% |
Democracy Corps | August 26, 2008 | 50% | 45% |
Survey USA | September 8, 2008 | 40% | 48% |
Daily Kos/Research 2000 | September 10, 2008 | 42% | 48% |
Rasmussen Reports | September 18, 2008 | 51% | 45% |
Public Policy Polling | September 19, 2008 | 46% | 41% |
Rasmussen Reports | September 23, 2008 | 48% | 45% |
Public Policy Polling | September 28–29, 2008 | 46% | 38% |
Survey USA | October 5–6, 2008 | 43% | 44% |
Rasmussen Reports | October 8, 2008 | 49% | 44% |
Survey USA | October 20, 2008 | 46% | 45% |
Rasmussen Reports | October 29, 2008 | 52% | 46% |
Public Policy Polling | Oct 31-Nov 2, 2008 | 51% | 44% |
Survey USA | November 2, 2008 | 50% | 43% |
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Kay Hagan | 2,249,311 | 52.65% | +7.7% | |
Republican | Elizabeth Dole (incumbent) | 1,887,510 | 44.18% | -9.4% | |
Libertarian | Chris Cole | 133,430 | 3.17% | +2.1% | |
Write-in | 1,719 | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||
Total votes | 4,271,970 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
Democratic gain from Republican |
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Perquimans (Largest city: Hertford)
- Camden (Largest city: Camden)
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
- Franklin (Largest city: Wake Forest)
- Montgomery (Largest city: Troy)
- Nash (largest municipality: Rocky Mount)
- New Hanover (largest municipality: Wilmington)
- Watauga (largest municipality: Boone)
- Alamance (largest municipality: Burlington)
- Brunswick (largest municipality: Leland)
- Greene (largest municipality: Snow Hill)
- Lee (largest municipality: Sanford)
- Person (largest municipality: Roxboro)
- Rockingham (largest municipality: Eden)
- Pender (largest municipality: Hampstead)
- Sampson (largest municipality: Clinton)
- Washington (largest municipality: Plymouth)
- Guilford (Largest city: Greensboro)
- Mecklenburg (Largest city: Charlotte)
- Tyrrell (largest municipality: Columbia)
- Buncombe (largest town: Asheville)
- Forsyth (largest town: Winston-Salem)
- Pitt (largest town: Greenville)
- Wake (largest town: Raleigh)
- Wilson (largest town: Wilson)
- Lenoir (largest town: Kinston)
Analysis
In the 2008 election, Dole lost by a wider-than-expected margin, taking only 44 percent of the vote to Hagan's 53 percent – the widest margin for a Senate race in North Carolina in 30 years, and the largest margin of defeat for an incumbent Senator in the 2008 cycle. It has been speculated that the outcry over the "Godless" ads contributed to Dole's loss.[32] Hagan trounced Dole in the state's five largest counties – Mecklenburg, Wake, Guilford, Forsyth and Durham. Hagan also dominated most of the eastern portion of the state, which had been the backbone of Helms' past Senate victories. While Dole dominated the Charlotte suburbs and most of the heavily Republican Foothills region, it was not enough to save her seat.
See also
References
- ^ Libertarian Party of NC press release: Libertarians File List of 2008 Candidates Archived September 21, 2008, at the Wayback Machine
- ^ a b "Perdue tries to whistle up a Mayberry miracle". Raleigh News and Observer. October 28, 2008. Retrieved October 28, 2008.[dead link]
- ^ "Rasmussen Reports: The most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a mid-term election". Archived from the original on October 26, 2007. Retrieved November 10, 2007.
- ^ Dan Kane; Rob Christensen; J. Andrew Curliss (January 25, 2007). "Poll puts Easley over Dole". The News & Observer. Archived from the original on September 18, 2008. Retrieved February 5, 2007.
- ^ newsobserver.com | Miller looking at Senate race Archived May 1, 2007, at the Wayback Machine
- ^ Draft dodger? | newsobserver.com projects Archived May 1, 2008, at the Wayback Machine
- ^ a b 2008 Election Challenge.
- ^ a b c d "Is the Southern Strategy Dead?". American Prospect. October 24, 2008. Archived from the original on August 10, 2011. Retrieved October 26, 2008.
- News & Observer. October 4, 2007. Archived from the originalon June 1, 2008. Retrieved March 18, 2008.
- ^ a b NC State Board of Elections website
- ^ "Scrambling the red states". The Economist. October 23, 2008. Retrieved October 23, 2008.
- ^ "Elizabeth Dole: Campaign Finance/Money - Summary." OpenSecrets http://www.opensecrets.org/politicians/summary.php?type=C&cid=N00008071&newMem=N&cycle=
- The Politico. October 29, 2008.
- ^ CNN.com. October 29, 2008.
- ^ Bob Dole Defends "Godless" TV Ad. Small Business VoIP. November 1, 2008.
- ^ KayHagan.com. Kay on Dole Ad Attacking Her Christian Faith: A Fabricated, Pathetic Ad Archived May 30, 2012, at the Wayback Machine. October 30, 2008.
- ^ Dole Sued for 'Godless' Attack Ad Archived January 20, 2016, at the Wayback Machine, ABC News. October 30, 2008.
- CNN.com. October 30, 2008.
- CNN.com. October 29, 2008.
- ^ Frank, James. Dole 'Godless' ad shows progress, sort of Archived November 8, 2008, at the Wayback Machine. Chicago Tribune. October 31, 2008.
- ^ Dole's desperate turn to Big Lie advertising Archived April 18, 2009, at the Stanford Web Archive. The Charlotte Observer. October 30, 2008.
- ^ As election nears, negative ads a distraction[permanent dead link]. Asheville Citizen-Times. October 30, 2008.
- ^ Greensboro News & Record. October 30, 2008.
- ^ ELIZABETH DOLE ATTACKS KAY HAGAN'S CHRISTIAN FAITH Archived August 26, 2013, at the Wayback Machine. AmericanChronicle.com. November 2, 2008.
- ^ Dole's new ads set the low mark in negative political campaigning. The Fayetteville Observer. October 15, 2008.
- ^ a b "Dole's mistake: 'Godless' ad drove donors, voters to Hagan". Miami Herald. November 11, 2008. Retrieved November 18, 2008.[dead link]
- ^ "2008 Senate Race ratings for October 23, 2008". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved April 1, 2021.
- ^ Race Ratings Chart: Senate Archived October 28, 2010, at the Wayback Machine CQ Politics
- ^ "2008 Senate ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved April 1, 2021.
- ^ "2008 RCP Averages & Senate Results". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved August 31, 2021.
- ^ NC State Board of Elections website
- ^ Barbara Barrett (November 5, 2008). "N.C. voters deny Dole, elect Hagan to U.S. Senate". Miami Herald. Retrieved November 5, 2008.
External links
- North Carolina State Board of Elections
- U.S. Congress candidates for North Carolina at Project Vote Smart
- North Carolina, U.S. Senate from CQ Politics
- North Carolina U.S. Senate from OurCampaigns.com
- Campaign contributions from OpenSecrets
- Dole vs Hagan graph of multiple polls from Pollster.com
- Official campaign websites (Archived)
- Elizabeth Dole, Republican nominee
- Kay Hagan, Democratic nominee
- Jim Neal, Democratic candidate