2008 Missouri gubernatorial election
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Nixon: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Hulshof: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% 50% No votes | |||||||||||||||||
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| Elections in Missouri |
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The 2008 Missouri gubernatorial election was held on November 4, 2008. Incumbent
Governor Matt Blunt decided to retire instead of seeking reelection to a second term in office. Despite John McCain narrowly carrying the state in the concurrent presidential election, Democratic nominee Jay Nixon won the open seat, defeating Republican nominee Kenny Hulshof
in a landslide.
Background
On January 22, 2008, Governor Blunt unexpectedly announced that he would not seek re-election[1] because he had already "achieved virtually everything I set out to accomplish, and more ... Because I feel we have changed what I wanted to change in the first term, there is not the same sense of mission for a second."
A November 2007 poll conducted by SurveyUSA showed Blunt with a 44% approval rating.[2] His approval among Republicans polled was 68%, and his rating among Democrats was 23%.[2] On November 10, 2007, Democrat Jay Nixon filed the necessary paperwork with the Missouri Ethics Commission to launch a 2008 campaign for governor.[3]
The gubernatorial and other statewide office primaries were held August 5, 2008.[4] CQ Politics rated the race as 'Leans Democratic'.[5]
Timeline
- March 25, 2008 – Filing deadline for Democrats, Republicans and Libertarians[6]
- August 5, 2008 – Primary (gubernatorial and other statewide office) elections[6]
- August 19, 2008 – Filing deadline for other third parties and Independents[6]
- November 4, 2008 – General election.
Primaries
Republican primary
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Kenny Hulshof | 194,556 | 49.2 | |
| Republican | Sarah Steelman | 176,750 | 44.7 | |
| Republican | Scott Long | 18,745 | 4.7 | |
| Republican | Jen Sievers | 5,664 | 1.4 | |
| Total votes | 395,715 | 100.0 | ||
Democratic primary
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Jay Nixon | 303,796 | 85.0 | |
| Democratic | Daniel Carroll | 53,768 | 15.0 | |
| Total votes | 357,564 | 100.0 | ||
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[8]
|
Lean D (flip) | October 16, 2008 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[9] | Likely D (flip) | November 2, 2008 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[10]
|
Lean D (flip) | November 3, 2008 |
Real Clear Politics[11]
|
Likely D (flip) | November 4, 2008 |
Polling
| Source | Date | Kenny Hulshof (R) |
Jay Nixon (D) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[12] | November 2, 2008 | 38% | 58% |
Survey USA[13]
|
November 2, 2008 | 39% | 54% |
Survey USA[14]
|
October 26, 2008 | 38% | 55% |
| Rasmussen Reports[15] | October 14, 2008 | 38% | 57% |
Survey USA[16]
|
September 24, 2008 | 37% | 54% |
| Rasmussen Reports[15] | September 11, 2008 | 39% | 54% |
| Public Policy Polling[17] | August 17, 2008 | 42% | 48% |
Survey USA[18]
|
July 31, 2008 | 42% | 48% |
| Rasmussen Reports[15] | July 7, 2008 | 38% | 49% |
| Rasmussen[19] | June 9, 2008 | 34% | 54% |
Survey USA[20]
|
May 20, 2008 | 33% | 57% |
| Rasmussen[21] | May 8, 2008 | 35% | 51% |
| Rasmussen[22] | March 24, 2008 | 37% | 48% |
| Rasmussen[23] | February 13, 2008 | 30% | 48% |
Hypothetical polling
With Steelman
| Source | Date | Sarah Steelman (R) |
Jay Nixon (D) |
|---|---|---|---|
Survey USA[18]
|
July 31, 2008 | 41% | 50% |
| Rasmussen Reports[15] | July 7, 2008 | 37% | 46% |
| Rasmussen[19] | June 9, 2008 | 34% | 56% |
Survey USA[20]
|
May 20, 2008 | 33% | 58% |
| Rasmussen[21] | May 8, 2008 | 35% | 51% |
| Rasmussen[22] | March 24, 2008 | 39% | 46% |
| Rasmussen[23] | February 13, 2008 | 35% | 46% |
With Blunt
| Source | Date | Matt Blunt (R) |
Jay Nixon (D) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmussen Reports[24] | December 12, 2007 | 42% | 47% |
| Research2000[25] | November 24, 2007 | 42% | 51% |
| Rasmussen[26] | October 10, 2007 | 44% | 43% |
| Rasmussen[26] | August 23, 2007 | 43% | 46% |
| SurveyUSA[27] | July 25–27, 2007 | 38% | 57% |
Results
On election night, Nixon won easily, even though fellow Democrat
Kansas City
, Hulshof didn't have a chance to come back. Nixon was declared the winner right when the polls closed in Missouri. Hulshof conceded defeat at 9:02 P.M. Central Time.
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Jay Nixon | 1,680,611 | 58.4 | +10.6 | |
| Republican | Kenny Hulshof | 1,136,364 | 39.5 | −11.3 | |
Libertarian
|
Andrew Finkenstadt | 31,850 | 1.1 | +0.2 | |
Constitution
|
Gregory Thompson | 28,941 | 1.0 | +0.6 | |
| Write-in | 12 | 0.0 | n/a | ||
| Total votes | 2,877,778 | 100.0 | n/a | ||
| Democratic gain from Republican | |||||
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
- Caldwell (Largest city: Hamilton)
- Daviess (Largest city: Gallatin)
- Gentry (Largest city: Albany)
- Crawford (Largest city: Cuba)
- Oregon (Largest city: Thayer)
- Vernon (Largest city: Nevada)
- Lincoln (Largest city: Troy)
- St. Clair (Largest city: Appleton City)
- Livingston (Largest city: Chillicothe)
- Andrew (Largest city: Savannah)
- Atchison (Largest city: Tarkio)
- Benton (Largest city: Warsaw)
- Camden (Largest city: Osage Beach)
- Carter (Largest city: Van Buren)
- Cass (Largest city: Harrisonville)
- Dallas (Largest city: Buffalo)
- Dent (Largest city: Salem)
- Douglas (Largest city: Ava)
- Howell (Largest city: West Plains)
- Laclede (Largest city: Lebanon)
- Maries (Largest city: Belle)
- Morgan (Largest city: Versailles)
- Ozark (Largest city: Gainesville)
- Fort Leonard Wood)
- Polk (Largest city: Bolivar)
- Phelps (Largest city: Rolla)
- Ripley (Largest city: Doniphan)
- Texas (Largest city: Licking)
- Wright (Largest city: Mountain Grove)
- Webster (Largest city: Marshfield)
- Audrain (Largest city: Mexico)
- Bates (Largest city: Butler)
- Chariton (Largest city: Salisbury)
- Clark (Largest city: Kahoka)
- Dunklin (Largest city: Kennett)
- Franklin (Largest city: Washington)
- Henry (Largest city: Clinton)
- Hickory (Largest city: Hermitage)
- Howard (Largest city: Fayette)
- Iron (Largest city: Ironton)
- Knox (Largest city: Edina)
- Lafayette (Largest city: Odessa)
- Lewis (Largest city: Canton)
- Linn (Largest city: Brookfield)
- Madison (Largest city: Fredericktown)
- Nodaway (Largest city: Maryville)
- Pike (Largest city: Bowling Green)
- Reynolds (Largest city: Ellington)
- Scott (Largest city: Sikeston)
- Shannon (Largest city: Winona)
- St. Francois (Largest city: Farmington)
- Wayne (Largest city: Piedmont)
- Buchanan (Largest city: St. Joseph)
- Washington (Largest city: Potosi)
- Iron (largest city: Ironton)
- St. Charles (largest city: O'Fallon)
- Pettis (largest city: Sedalia)
- Adair (largest city: Kirksville)
- Greene (largest city: Springfield)
- Johnson (largest city: Warrensburg)
- Monroe (Largest city: Monroe City)
See also
- 2008 United States gubernatorial elections
- 2004 Missouri gubernatorial election
- 2008 Missouri lieutenant gubernatorial election
- 2008 United States presidential election in Missouri
References
- ^ Shelton, Missy (January 22, 2008). "Governor Matt Blunt Will Not Seek Re-election". KSMU. Archived from the original on April 15, 2013. Retrieved July 18, 2021.
- ^ a b Survey USA
- ^ Article[permanent dead link] by Columbia Daily Tribune: Document points to Nixon run
- ^ August 5, 2008 State Primary Election Information Missouri Secretary of State
- ^ Dems Gain in Five of Six New CQ Politics Rating Changes Archived 2008-10-12 at the Wayback Machine CQ Politics, October 8, 2008
- ^ a b c 2008 Missouri Election Calendar from the Missouri Secretary of State
- ^ "Archived copy". Archived from the original on August 9, 2008. Retrieved August 6, 2008.
{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link) - ^ "2008 Governor Race ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved March 4, 2021.
- ^ "2008 Gubernatorial Ratings". Gubernatorial Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved May 25, 2021.
- ^ "THE LAST LAST WORD The Crystal Ball's Final Projections for the 2008 Election". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved December 25, 2021.
- ^ "2008 Missouri Governor Race". RealClearPolitics. November 4, 2008. Retrieved March 5, 2021.
- ^ Public Policy Polling
- ^ Survey USA
- ^ Survey USA
- ^ a b c d Rasmussen Reports
- ^ Survey USA
- ^ Public Policy Polling
- ^ a b Survey USA
- ^ a b Rasmussen
- ^ a b Survey USA
- ^ a b Rasmussen
- ^ a b Rasmussen
- ^ a b Rasmussen
- ^ Rasmussen Reports
- ^ Research2000[usurped]
- ^ a b Rasmussen
- ^ SurveyUSA
External links
- Elections from the Missouri Secretary of State
- Missouri Governor candidates at Project Vote Smart
- Missouri Governor race from OurCampaigns.com
- Missouri Governor race from 2008 Race Tracker
- Campaign contributions from Follow the Money
- Hulshof (R) vs Nixon (D) graph of collected polls from Pollster.com
- Official campaign websites (Archived)
- Jay Nixon, Democratic candidate
- Kenny Hulshof, Republican candidate
- Sarah Steelman, Republican candidate
- Andy Finkenstadt, Libertarian candidate