Opinion polling for the next Peruvian general election

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In the Peruvian electoral system, for a candidate to be proclaimed the winner, they must obtain more than 50% of valid votes. In case no candidate achieves that percentage in the first electoral round, the two candidates with the most votes participate in a second round or ballot.

In the run-up to the next Peruvian general election, various organizations conduct opinion polls to measure the intention to vote in Peru in the previous period. The results of these surveys are shown in this article. The date range for these opinion polls is from the runoff of the previous general election, held on 6 June 2021, to the present.

Voting intention estimates refer mainly to a hypothetical election of the President of the Republic. Intent polls and mock ballots are listed in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates the poll was conducted in the field rather than the date of publication. When fieldwork dates are unknown, the publication date is given instead.

Peruvian electoral law prohibits the dissemination of polls in the week prior to the day of the electoral suffrage.

Presidential

Graphical summary

* Ineligible for presidency

Voting preferences

Polling firm Date Sample
size 		Others Blank
vote 		Undecided
Fujimori Castillo[a] Vizcarra[b] Humala de Soto L. Aliaga Mendoza Lescano del Solar L. Chau Urresti Chiabra Sagasti Forsyth Torres
Ind. Ind. Ind. Ind. Ind. Ind.
IEP/La República[1] 16–21 Mar 2024 1,207 4.4 3.3 3.3 2.1 2.3 1.0 – 0.6 0.7 1.7 – – – – – 9.8[c] 26.8 44.0
Sensor[2] 19–23 Feb 2024 1,200 6.3 – – 3.7 1.3 2.9 2.5 3.2 – – 1.3 – – – – 17.4[d] – 61.5
IEP/La República[3] 8–13 Dec 2023 1,210 4.1 4.3 3.0 1.0 1.8 1.2 0.6 1.1 0.7 – – 0.4 – – – 6.9[e] 27.6 47.5
CPI[4] 13–18 Nov 2023 1,200 2.7 1.9 2.4 1.4 2.6 3.2 0.8 0.8 – 0.2 – – 0.9 – – 8.5[f] 15.5 59.1
CPI/RPP[5] 11–15 Jul 2023 1,200 4.8 3.2 – 5.6 4.6 9.8 2.4 – – – – – 2.7 – – 5.3 20.6 41.0
CIT/Expreso[6] 29–31 May 2023 1,200 9.6 – – 7.3 8.2 12.8 3.2 – – – – 4.3 – 2.3 – 7.6 – 45.0
CPI/RPP[7] 23–28 Apr 2023 1,200 6.3 4.1 – 5.8 5.6 9.1 2.6 1.8 – – – – 2.2 – 2.7 5.8 18.3 35.7
CIT/Expreso[8] 20–22 Apr 2023 1,200 9.6 – – 7.5 8.6 13.5 1.4 – – – 4.0 4.3 – 2.4 – 11.5 19.2 18.0
CPI/RPP[9] 7–10 Mar 2023 1,200 3.1 2.2 2.3 3.7 5.1 8.2 2.0 – – – – – 2.1 – 1.0 6.9[g] 16.9 46.5
IEP/La República[10] 18–22 Feb 2023 1,201 2.4 2.1 2.0 1.3 4.2 2.8 1.1 1.2 0.5 4.5 0.8 – 0.2 0.1 2.1 2.6[h] 21.7 49.4
CIT/Expreso[11] 16–18 Feb 2023 1,200 – – – 9.3 9.4 11.8 2.0 – 2.9 – 3.8 4.1 – 2.4 – 9.0 24.0 21.2
CPI/RPP[12] 24–27 Jan 2023 1,200 3.2 1.2 2.4 1.6 5.2 8.6 1.1 0.7 – – 0.9 – 0.7 – 1.4 8.4 13.8 50.9
IEP/La República[13] 21–25 Jan 2023 1,214 2.1 1.8 1.5 1.1 3.6 3.3 1.7 1.7 0.6 0.8 0.5 – 0.8 0.3 0.9 3.4 17.3 58.8
CIT/Expreso[14] 18–20 Jan 2023 1,200 – – – 9.8 9.3 12.2 2.0 – 2.8 – 3.5 4.3 – 2.5 – 7.9 22.0 23.8
CPI[15] 16–20 Nov 2022 1,200 7.0 – 3.6 9.0 7.2 9.7 1.9 1.1 0.8 – 1.8 0.7 1.1 1.0 – 4.2 28.6 20.8
CPI[16] 6–9 Sep 2022 1,200 3.9 – 3.4 5.3 6.2 5.9 1.6 2.3 – – 1.9 2.4 3.3 0.9 – 4.4 14.9 43.2
CPI[17] 3–10 Aug 2022 1,200 3.6 – 2.2 1.5 4.8 4.2 1.9 1.8 1.3 – – 1.3 1.6 – – 8.0 8.5 58.7
CPI[18] 28 Jun–2 Jul 2022 1,128 4.8 – 2.0 1.0 5.0 7.2 2.3 1.8 0.9 – 1.0 1.0 1.1 – – 4.8 13.0 54.1
Election Results – 13.4 18.9 – – 11.6 11.8 7.9 9.1 – – 5.6 – – 5.7 – 10.1 1.6 –

Parliamentary

Polling firm Date Sample
size 		Lead
Ipsos/Perú21[19] 9–10 Nov 2023 1,205 5.0 8.0 3.0 5.0 4.0 4.0 2.0 4.0 – 2.0 3.0 2.0 – – – – – 3.0
Datum[20] 30 Jun – 4 Jul 2023 896 5.0 7.0 1.0 6.0 3.0 3.0 2.0 5.0 1.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 – – – – – 1.0
CIT/Expreso[21][i] 20–22 Mar 2023 1,200 3.5 12.5 13.9 5.0 9.1 11.2 5.2 13.1 – 1.6 1.4 7.9 – 1.3 6.0 7.3 1.3 0.8
CIT/Expreso[11][i] 16–18 Feb 2023 1,200 2.9 13.3 14.1 6.9 10.8 13.0 4.4 15.7 – 2.7 1.3 3.3 – – 4.7 5.1 1.2 1.6
Ipsos Perú/América TV[22] 9–10 Feb 2023 1,210 5.0 8.0 3.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 2.0 – 1.0 2.0 – 2.0 1.0 – – – – 4.0
CIT/Expreso[23][i] 18–20 Jan 2023 1,200 2.7 14.6 16.9 – 12.4 14.9 4.9 17.9 – 3.0 1.5 – – 1.0 4.8 5.4 – 1.0
2022 municipal 2 Oct 2022 – 2.5 1.2 10.1 1.9 9.5 4.3 4.1 13.8 9.7 0.2 – – 5.8 0.1 – – – 3.7
2021 general 11 Apr 2021 – 13.4
37 		11.3
24 		9.3
13 		9.0
16 		7.5
15 		7.5
7 		6.6
5 		6.1
5 		5.8
5 		5.4
3 		4.6
0 		– – – – – – 2.1

Notes

  1. ^ Castillo is not eligible for a second term.
  2. ^ Vizcarra has been banned from holding public office for 10 years.
  3. ^ Including Arturo Fernández at 0.8%, Alberto Fujimori at 0.7%, Ulises Villegas at 0.7%, César Acuña at 0.7%, Ulises Villegas at 0.4% and Fiorella Molinelli at 0.2%
  4. ^ Including César Acuña at 1.7%, Fernando Cillóniz at 1.2%, Julio Guzmán at 0.8%, Susel Paredes at 0.6%, Ulises Villegas at 0.4% and Fiorella Molinelli at 0.2%
  5. ^ Including Alberto Fujimori at 0.4%
  6. ^ Including César Acuña at 0.4%, Carlos Añaños at 0.3% and Carlos Álvarez Loayza at 0.1%
  7. ^ Including Álvaro Paz de la Barra at 1.6%
  8. ^ Including Cecilia García at 0.4%, Ricardo Belmont at 0.4%, César Acuña at 0.3% and Ollanta Humala at 0.1%
  9. ^ a b c Undecided and/or abstainers excluded

References

  1. ^ "IEP Informe de opinión de marzo 2024 - (informe completo)" (PDF). iep.org.pe. Retrieved 9 April 2024.
  2. ^ "Estudio de Opinión pública FEBRERO 2023" (PDF). sensor.pe. Retrieved 9 April 2024.
  3. ^ "IEP Informe de Opinión – Diciembre 2023 (Informe completo)" (PDF). iep.org.pe. Retrieved 2 January 2024.
  4. ^ "Estudio de Opinión Pública Nacional PERÚ URBANO RURAL Campo: 13 al 18 de noviembre de 2023" (PDF). cpi.pe. Retrieved 2 January 2024.
  5. ^ "Peru, CPI Poll: Presidential election (open question)" (PDF).
  6. ^ "Encuesta Nacional Urbano Rural – Aprobación Gubernamental de Junio". citopinion.pe. 28 June 2023. Retrieved 26 August 2023.
  7. ^ "Estudio de Opinión Pública Nacional - PERÚ URBANO RURAL (Campo: 23 al 28 de abril de 2023)" (PDF). cpi.pe. Retrieved 7 May 2023.
  8. ^ "Encuesta Nacional Urbano Rural – Aprobación Gubernamental". citopinion.pe. 28 April 2023. Retrieved 17 May 2023.
  9. ^ "Estudio de Opinión Pública Nacional - PERÚ URBANO RURAL (Campo: 07 al 10 de marzo de 2023)" (PDF). cpi.pe. Retrieved 14 March 2023.
  10. ^ "IEP Informe de Opinión – Febrero 2023 (Informe completo)" (PDF). iep.org.pe. 26 February 2023.
  11. ^ a b "Encuesta Nacional Urbano Rural". citopinion.pe. 24 February 2023.
  12. ^ "Estudio de Opinión Pública Nacional - Perú Urbano Rural (Campo: 24 al 27 de enero 2023)" (PDF). cpi.pe. Retrieved 30 January 2023.
  13. ^ Pereda, David (29 January 2023). "Un 73% del país: Que elecciones generales sean este mismo año". larepublica.pe (in Spanish). Retrieved 29 January 2023.
  14. ^ "Encuesta Nacional Urbano Rural – Aprobación Gubernamental – CIT Opinion" (in Spanish). Retrieved 17 February 2023.
  15. ^ "Estudio de Opinión Pública Nacional - Perú Urbano Rural (Campo: 16 al 20 de Noviembre de 2022)" (PDF). cpi.pe. 24 November 2022.
  16. ^ "Estudio de Opinión Pública Nacional - Perú Urbano Rural (Campo: 05 al 08 de septiembre de 2022)" (PDF). cpi.pe. 8 September 2022.
  17. ^ "Estudio de Opinión Pública Nacional - Perú Urbano Rural (Campo: 3 al 10 de agosto de 2022)" (PDF). cpi.pe. 12 August 2022.
  18. ^ "Estudio de Opinión Pública Nacional - Perú Urbano Rural (Campo: 28 de junio al 2 de julio 2022)" (PDF). cpi.pe. 6 July 2022.
  19. ^ "ESTUDIO DE OPINIÓN INFORME DE RESULTADOS Noviembre, 2023" (PDF). ipsos.com (in Spanish). Retrieved 2 January 2024.
  20. ^ citopinion (July 2023). "Estudio de Opinión Pública - Popularidad + Coyuntura - Julio 2023" (PDF). Datum (in Spanish). Retrieved 26 August 2023.
  21. ^ citopinion (2023-03-28). "Encuesta Nacional Urbano Rural | CIT Opinión Marzo 2023". CIT Opinion (in Spanish). Retrieved 2023-05-13.
  22. ^ "Informe de Resultados. Estudio de opinión para América Televisión. Perú, 10 de febrero de 2023" (PDF). ipsos.com (in Spanish). 28 February 2023.
  23. ^ "Encuesta Nacional Urbano Rural". citopinion.pe. 26 January 2023.
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