Smihula waves
Smihula waves (or Smihula cycles, Smihula waves of technological revolutions, economic waves of technological revolutions) are long-term waves of technological progress which are reflected also in
Characteristics of the theory
The Smihula's theory of waves of technological revolutions is based on the idea that the main technological innovations are introduced in society and the economy not continually but in specific waves, and the time spans of these waves is shortening due to technological progress.[2][3][4]
The time period with the highest concentration of technological
The internal structure of each long wave of technological innovations with economic implications is as follows:
a) innovation phase – technological revolution (an economic revival after the crisis from the end of a previous wave)
b) application phase (an economic boom)
c) saturation of economy and society with innovations, impossibility of further extensive growth (an economic crisis)
Technological revolutions
In Smihula theory technological revolutions are the main engine of economic development, and hence long-term economic cycles are dependent on these waves of technological innovation.[7] Smihula identified during the modern age in society six waves of technological innovations begun by technological revolutions (one of them is a hypothetical revolution in the near future). Unlike other scholars he believed that it is possible to find similar technological revolutions and long-term economic waves dependent on them even in pre-modern ages. (This is the most original part of the Smihula's theory.)
Pre-modern technological waves:
Wave | Period | Technological revolution | The most important innovations |
A. | 1900–1100 BC | Indo-European technological revolution | horse-breeding, chariots, iron |
B. | 700–200 BC | Celtic and Greek technological revolution | iron tools and weapons, Greek classical civilization |
C. | 300–700 AD | Germano-Slavic technological revolution | two-field crop rotation, improvements in iron metallurgy, heavy plough, longboat, horse stirrups |
D. | 930–1200 | Medieval technological revolution | horse-collar, horse-shoes, water and wind mills, paper, beans, fertilization, heavy cavalry, crossbow, three-field crop rotation, university |
E. | 1340–1470 | Renaissance technological revolution | eyeglasses, fire-arms, spinning wheel, Hindu-Arabic numerals, blast furnace, letterpress, watch, astrolabe, compass, oceanic sails |
Modern technological waves:
Wave | Period | Technological revolution | The leading sectors |
1. | 1600–1740 | Financial-agricultural
revolution |
finance, agriculture, trade |
2. | 1780–1840 | Industrial revolution | textiles, iron, coal, railways, canals |
3. | 1880–1920 | Technical revolution | chemistry, electrotechnical industry, machinery |
4. | 1940–1970 | Scientific-technical
revolution |
air-industry, nuclear industry, astronautics, synthetic materials,
oil industry, cybernetics |
5. | 1985–2000 | Information and
telecommunications revolution |
telecommunications, cybernetics, informatics, internet |
6. | 2015–2025 (?) | hypothetical post-information
technological revolution |
biomedicine, nanotechnology, alternative fuel systems |
Theory of Smihula waves of technological revolutions is popular among supporters of the long economic waves (e.g.
Controversy
As Smihula published his theory in the time of revived interest in long economic cycles and when a link between economic cycles and technological revolutions was generally accepted (e.g. in works of Carlota Perez), it did not evoke strong criticism or opposition. On the other side it has the same problem as the other long-cycles theories – it is sometime hard to support them by exact data and the potential curve of a long time development is always modified by other short-time factors – therefore its course is always only a rather abstract reconstruction. Also the idea of concentration of the most important innovation in certain bordered periods seems to be very logical, but its verification depends on a very subjective definition of the "most important" innovations. Smihula's theory of long waves of technological innovations and economic cycles dependent on them is more popular in Russia, Brazil[13] and India[14] than in Europe.[15][16]
References
- ^ Niels Posthumus: Financiële lente is nog ver weg (Trouw, 12/11/10)
- ^ D.Šmihula: Informačná a komunikačná revolúcia sa stáva minulosťou, SLOVO, 2008 "Informačná a komunikačná revolúcia sa stáva minulosťou | Trendy | Slovo | spoločensko-politický internetový portál | politika, spoločnosť, trendy, zahraničie, história, reportáže". Archived from the original on 2012-09-08. Retrieved 2012-03-26.
- ^ Brian Chan: Future of Product Design (2011) Archived 2011-08-09 at the Wayback Machine
- ^ Shipbuilding – Market Forecast Archived 2012-07-11 at the Wayback Machine
- ^ Halina Ward: "The Future of Democracy in the Face of Climate Change", Foundation for Democracy and Sustainable Development (January 2012), p. 86 and 127
- ^ Kondratiev e Le Sue Onde/Kontratiev and the Waves (2011) Archived 2013-02-22 at archive.today
- ^ Smihula's Modified Kondratiev-Wave Schema[permanent dead link]
- ^ Kondratieff Wave
- ^ Lewy Land: Kondratieff Waves... Crashed Our Economy!
- ^ Mag. Veronika Hornung-Prähauser, MAS: Systemic innovations enabled by information and communication technology in education (2011) [3]
- ^ Ivan Barbosa da Cunha: Relatório e Parecer Prévio Das Contas Anuais do Governo do Estado do Pará Exercício 2009 (2010)[4]
- ^ Dr. Prashant Wasankar: Riding the Bull
- hdl:10182/3831.
- ^ Simon Berkovich: Obtaining inexhaustible clean energy by parametric resonance under nonlocality clocking (2010) "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on 2012-05-13. Retrieved 2012-03-18.
{{cite web}}
: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)