Systemic wars theory

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The systemic wars theory is a political-sociological theory by Dutch ex-marine Ingo Piepers that states that a fifth major systemic war would start around 2020.[1] According to Piepers' definition, a systemic war is a war in which all the great powers are actively involved.[2] The term systemic war refers to the remaking of the international political-social system.[3]

Method

From the early 2000s, Piepers has conducted scientific research into major wars around the world based on physical and mathematical theories.

Second World War
(1939–1945).

War in 2020

According to the cycle discovered by Piepers, the fifth

2036.[7] He indicates that population growth, poverty and climate change will be central subjects in the coming war.[3]

2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine

See also:
2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine

On February 24, 2022, Russia invades neighboring Ukraine. Ingo Piepers is not yet able to confirm whether this is the world war he predicted. In Europe, he says, this could be defined as a systemic crisis, but on a global level it would have to mean that China would be actively involved in the conflict, and the latter is not yet in play.[2]

Criticism

Critics have argued that the empirical analyzes are insufficient and that the statistics are too simplified. The substantiation of a fixed war cycle and the prediction that a European conflict will lead to a global war have been carried out too weakly.[8] Also, an understanding of the past does not automatically lead to the ability to predict future wars because they do not exhibit linear behavior.[9] Similarly, one mentions the human capacity to learn from previous wars and unpredictable new developments in human social behavior.[10] Also, international tensions in the 21st century no longer need to be expressed in the military field.[11]

References

  1. ISBN 9789082411812
    .
  2. ^ a b "Is dit het begin van een nieuwe wereldoorlog?". Boekestijn en De Wijk, BNR (in Dutch). April 8, 2022.
  3. ^ a b Thijssen, Wil (January 10, 2020). "'De Derde Wereldoorlog kan elk moment beginnen, en ik voorspel het al jaren'". de Volkskrant (in Dutch).
  4. ISBN 9081063812
    .
  5. ^ Publication of the thesis at the UvA-DARE
  6. ^ Berbers, Tim (September 14, 2017). "'De Derde Wereldoorlog begint binnen vijf jaar'". Esquire (in Dutch). Archived from the original on 2021-11-20.
  7. ^ "'Bewijs: Derde Wereldoorlog komt eraan!' - TELEYOUTUBE SHOW #16". YouTube (in Dutch). de Telegraaf. January 14, 2020.
  8. ^ De Bruijne, Kars (February 22, 2017). "Een nieuwe wereldoorlog?". Clingendael Spectator (in Dutch).
  9. ^ Hofman, Lennart (January 25, 2020). "Is de Derde Wereldoorlog begonnen?". De Correspondent (in Dutch).
  10. ISBN 9780745609232
    .
  11. ISBN 9780465069392
    .
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