Upper-atmospheric models
Upper-atmospheric models are simulations of the
aurora. It has been proposed[who?
] that these phenomena may have an effect on the lower atmosphere, and should therefore be included in simulations of climate change. For this reason there has been a drive in recent years to create whole atmosphere models to investigate whether or not this is the case.
Jet stream perturbation model
A
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) patterns. The model is based on the knowledge that low pressure systems at the surface are steered by the fast ribbons (jet streams) of air in the upper atmosphere. The jet stream - blocking interaction model simulation examines the sea surface temperature field using data from NOAA tracked along the ocean on a path to the British Isles. The principal theory suggests that long term weather patterns act on longer time scales, so large blocking patterns are thought to appear in a similar locations repeatedly over several months.[2] With a good knowledge of blocking high patterns, the model performs with an impressive accuracy that is useful to the end user.[3]
Probabilistic forecasting
The modelling undertaken at Weather Logistics UK produces regional-seasonal predictions that are
global warming bias and 1961–1990 climatology of regional British Isles temperatures are added to the anomaly value to produce a final temperature prediction. The seasonal weather forecasts at Weather Logistics UK[1] include several additional weather components (derivatives) including: precipitation anomalies, storm tracks, air flow trajectories, heating degree days for household utility bills, cooling degree days, heat wave and the snow day
odds.
Planetary waves
According to a report in New Scientistsolar flares are at their minimum. The link between low solar activity and enhanced blocking patterns is associated with an increase in the prevalence of cold weather patterns during the European Winter.[6] Another possible explanation for the observed increase in blocking patterns is natural variability, through the chaotic character of the large-scale ocean currents that flow across the surface of the tropical Pacific.
See also
- Ionospheric model
References
- ^ a b overview of jet-stream / blocking interaction model, March 2011, archived from the original on 2011-03-26
- ^ The Technophobes Guide to Seasonal Forecasting in the 21st Century, August 2009 (PDF), archived from the original (PDF) on 2011-05-16
- ^ Validation of jet-stream / blocking model, Winter 2010/2011 (Version 3) (PDF), archived from the original (PDF) on 2011-04-09
- ^ Frozen jet stream links Pakistan floods, Russian fires
- ^ Extreme US weather: La Niña or constipated jet stream?
- ^ Are cold winters in Europe associated with low solar activity?
External links
- NCAR TIE-GCM (97 to ~450km), NCAR TIME-GCM (30 to ~450km)
- Are cold winters in Europe associated with low solar activity? M Lockwood et al. 2010 Environ. Res. Lett. 5 024001