2016 Baden-Württemberg state election
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All 143 seats in the Landtag of Baden-Württemberg 72 seats needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Turnout | 5,412,301 (70.4%) 4.2% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Results for the single-member constituencies. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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The 2016 Baden-Württemberg state election was held on 13 March 2016 to elect the members of the 15th
The Greens achieved a 6% swing and became the largest party in a state legislature for the first time. The Christian Democratic Union (CDU), which had previously been the largest party, lost a third of its voteshare and fell to second place. Alternative for Germany (AfD) contested its first state election in Baden-Württemberg, debuting at 15%. The SPD lost half its voteshare and fell to fourth place with 12.7%.
After the election, the Greens formed a coalition with the CDU, and Kretschmann was re-elected as Minister-President.
Campaign and issues
The Greens campaigned to keep Minister-President Winfried Kretschmann in office. Their central issues were energy, economics, and education. The
The election campaign was overshadowed by the
Parties
The table below lists parties represented in the previous Landtag of Baden-Württemberg.
Name | Ideology | Leader(s) | 2011 result | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Votes (%) | Seats | |||||
CDU | Christian Democratic Union of Germany Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands |
Christian democracy | Guido Wolf | 39.0% | 60 / 138
| |
Grüne | Alliance 90/The Greens Bündnis 90/Die Grünen |
Green politics | Winfried Kretschmann | 24.2% | 36 / 138
| |
SPD | Social Democratic Party of Germany Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands |
Social democracy | Nils Schmid | 23.1% | 35 / 138
| |
FDP | Free Democratic Party Freie Demokratische Partei |
Classical liberalism | Hans-Ulrich Rülke | 5.3% | 7 / 138
|
Opinion polls
- Key
Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size |
CDU | Grüne | SPD | FDP | Linke | Piraten | AfD | Others | Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016 state election | 13 Mar 2016 | – | 27.0 | 30.3 | 12.7 | 8.3 | 2.9 | 0.4 | 15.1 | 3.3 | 3.3 |
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 7–10 Mar 2016 | 1,711 | 29 | 32 | 14 | 6 | 4 | – | 11 | 4 | 3 |
YouGov | 2–9 Mar 2016 | 974 | 30 | 32 | 12 | 8 | 4 | – | 11 | 3 | 2 |
Forsa | 2–8 Mar 2016 | 1,002 | 27 | 32 | 16 | 7 | 3 | – | 11 | 4 | 5 |
INSA | 1–5 Mar 2016 | 1,005 | 28.5 | 33.5 | 12.5 | 6.0 | 3.0 | – | 12.5 | 4.0 | 5.0 |
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 29 Feb–3 Mar 2016 | 1,058 | 30 | 32 | 13 | 7 | 4 | – | 11 | 3 | 2 |
Infratest dimap | 29 Feb–2 Mar 2016 | 1,002 | 28 | 32 | 13 | 8 | 4 | – | 13 | 2 | 4 |
INSA | 25–27 Feb 2016 | 1,030 | 30.0 | 30.5 | 16.5 | 6.5 | 3.5 | – | 9.0 | 4.0 | 0.5 |
Forsa | 16–22 Feb 2016 | 1,069 | 30 | 30 | 16 | 6 | 3 | – | 11 | 4 | Tie |
INSA | 19–20 Feb 2016 | 1,000 | 30.0 | 30.5 | 16.0 | 7.0 | 3.0 | – | 10.0 | 3.5 | 0.5 |
Infratest dimap | 11–16 Feb 2016 | 1,000 | 31 | 28 | 14 | 8 | 4 | – | 12 | 3 | 3 |
Customer Research 42 | 27 Jan–7 Feb 2016 | 1,000 | 33.1 | 26.1 | 15.6 | 5.1 | 5.5 | – | 10.5 | 4.1 | 7.0 |
INSA | 26 Jan–1 Feb 2016 | 1,000 | 33.5 | 28.5 | 13.5 | 7.0 | 3.5 | – | 10.0 | 4.0 | 5.0 |
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 18–20 Jan 2016 | 1,069 | 34 | 28 | 15 | 6 | 3 | – | 11 | 3 | 6 |
INSA | 11–18 Jan 2016 | 1,000 | 35 | 29 | 13 | 6.5 | 2.5 | – | 11.5 | 2.5 | 6 |
Infratest dimap | 7–12 Jan 2016 | 1,000 | 35 | 28 | 15 | 6 | 3 | – | 10 | 3 | 7 |
Forsa | 2–11 Dec 2015 | 1,064 | 35 | 28 | 19 | 5 | 3 | – | 7 | 3 | 7 |
Infratest dimap | 26 Nov–1 Dec 2015 | 1,000 | 37 | 25 | 18 | 5 | 4 | – | 8 | 3 | 12 |
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 16–18 Nov 2015 | 1,040 | 37 | 27 | 18 | 5 | 3 | – | 6 | 4 | 10 |
INSA | 24 Sep–6 Oct 2015 | 1,003 | 40 | 24 | 16 | 5 | 5 | – | 8 | 2 | 16 |
Infratest dimap | 17–22 Sep 2015 | 1,000 | 39 | 26 | 17 | 5 | 4 | – | 5 | 4 | 13 |
Allensbach | 18 Jul–12 Aug 2015 | 1,047 | 40.5 | 24.0 | 20.0 | 4.5 | 4.0 | – | 3.0 | 4.0 | 16.5 |
Forsa | 23 Apr–7 May 2015 | 1,010 | 38 | 26 | 20 | 4 | 4 | – | 4 | 4 | 12 |
Infratest dimap | 19–24 Mar 2015 | 1,000 | 38 | 25 | 18 | 5 | 5 | – | 4 | 5 | 13 |
Infratest dimap | 10–11 Nov 2014 | 1,000 | 41 | 22 | 20 | 3 | 4 | – | 5 | 5 | 19 |
TNS Infratest | 17 Sep 2014 | – | 41 | 23 | 19 | 4 | 4 | – | 4 | 5 | 18 |
2014 European election | 25 May 2014 | – | 39.3 | 13.2 | 23.0 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 7.9 | 7.7 | 16.3 |
Infratest dimap | 6–11 May 2014 | 1,000 | 41 | 21 | 20 | 3 | 4 | – | 6 | 5 | 20 |
Infratest dimap | 4–5 Nov 2013 | 1,004 | 43 | 22 | 19 | 4 | 4 | – | 5 | 3 | 21 |
2013 federal election | 22 Sep 2013 | – | 45.7 | 11.0 | 20.6 | 6.2 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 5.2 | 4.2 | 25.1 |
Infratest dimap | 13–15 May 2013 | 1,005 | 39 | 28 | 19 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
Infratest dimap | 7–8 May 2012 | 1,000 | 37 | 28 | 21 | 4 | 2 | 6 | – | 2 | 9 |
Emnid | 15–17 Nov 2011 | 1,002 | 34 | 32 | 20 | 4 | 3 | 4 | – | 3 | 2 |
Infratest dimap | 8–16 Nov 2011 | 2,403 | 37 | 29 | 22 | 3 | 2 | 4 | – | 3 | 8 |
Infratest dimap | 16–17 Aug 2011 | 1,000 | 36 | 29 | 23 | 4 | 3 | – | – | 5 | 7 |
Forsa | 18–29 Apr 2011 | 1,004 | 36 | 30 | 22 | 4 | 2 | – | – | 6 | 6 |
2011 state election | 27 Mar 2011 | – | 39.0 | 24.2 | 23.1 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 2.1 | – | 3.5 | 14.8 |
Results
Party | Popular vote | Seats | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Votes | % | +/– | Seats | +/– | ||||||
Alliance '90/The Greens Bündnis 90/Die Grünen |
1,622,631 | 30.3 | 6.1 | 47 | 11 | |||||
Christian Democratic Union Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – CDU |
1,447,249 | 27.0 | 12.0 | 42 | 18 | |||||
Alternative for Germany Alternative für Deutschland – AfD |
809,311 | 15.1 | 15.1 | 23 | 23 | |||||
Social Democratic Party Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – SPD |
679,872 | 12.7 | 10.4 | 19 | 16 | |||||
Free Democratic Party Freie Demokratische Partei – FDP |
445,430 | 8.3 | 3.0 | 12 | 5 | |||||
Left Party Die Linke |
156,211 | 2.9 | 0.1 | 0 | ||||||
Alliance for Progress and Renewal Allianz für Fortschritt und Aufbruch – ALFA |
54,764 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0 | ||||||
Ecological Democratic Party Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei – ÖDP |
38,509 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0 | ||||||
National Democratic Party Nationaldemokratische Partei Deutschlands – NPD |
23,605 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0 | ||||||
Pirate Party Piratenpartei |
21,773 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0 | ||||||
Other parties | ||||||||||
Valid votes | 5,360,351 | 99.0 | 0.4 | |||||||
Invalid votes | 51,950 | 1.0 | 0.4 | |||||||
Totals and voter turnout | 5,412,301 | 70.4 | 4.2 | 143 | 5 | |||||
Electorate | 7,685,778 | 100.00 | — | |||||||
Source: Landeswahlleiter[5][6] |
Aftermath
In the prior election of 2011, the Green/SPD coalition obtained a majority (73 of 138) of votes in the Landtag, including two opposition votes;[7] however after the 2016 vote, the coalition fell short of a majority, with a combined total of 66 seats (72 needed for a majority). Kretschmann's popularity propelled the Green Party to a gain of 11 seats, making history as the first time the Green party has been the largest party in State-level election results. However, the Greens' coalition partner, the SPD, lost 16 seats, thus depriving the Greens' of a clear majority of leftists.[8]
There were several possible and probable working majorities among the five parties in the Landtag. Expanding the existing coalition into a three-party "traffic light" coalition (green-red-yellow) by including the FDP would have given the administration a working majority of 6.[9] Coalitions with AfD appeared unlikely: a CDU-AfD coalition would be 7 short of a majority in the Landtag, so would have also needed to include the FDP to make a majority and remove Kretschmann as minister-president. Removal of Kretschmann was unlikely; CDU leader Guido Wolf briefly sought to get the Social Democrats into a right-of-centre coalition with the FDP (with Wolf as state minister-president), but his SPD counterpart Nils Schmid pointed out that such a coalition would frustrate voters due to the personal popularity of Kretschmann.[8] If it were possible to elect the minister-president directly, Kretschmann would have won an outright majority according to polls; he was even favored by 45% of CDU supporters.[10]
In May 2016, the Landtag confirmed Kretschmann's leadership in a secret ballot.
References
- ^ "Der Kampf um die Macht in Baden-Württemberg". Stimme.de. 10 January 2016. Retrieved 15 March 2016.
- ^ Soldt, Rüdiger (28 February 2016). "Wahl in Baden-Württemberg: Kretschmann setzt auf Europa in der Flüchtlingskrise - Wahl in Baden-Württemberg". Faz.net. FAZ. Retrieved 15 March 2016.
- ^ "Winfried Kretschmann im Interview: "Ich bete jeden Tag für Angela Merkel" - Politik - Tagesspiegel". Tagesspiegel.de (in German). Retrieved 15 March 2016.
- ^ "Flüchtlingspolitik: CDU-Wahlkämpfer erhöhen Druck auf Merkel". Tagesschau.de. Retrieved 15 March 2016.
- ^ "Landtagswahl 2016 - Statistisches Landesamt Baden-Württemberg". statistik-bw.de.
- ^ tagesschau.de. "tagesschau.de". wahl.tagesschau.de. Archived from the original on 16 March 2016. Retrieved 13 March 2016.
- ^ "Erster grüner Ministerpräsident: Kretschmann erhält sogar zwei Oppositionsstimmen". Die Welt. 12 May 2011.
- ^ a b Knight, Ben (15 March 2016). "Greens face rightward shift despite victory". Deutsche Welle. Retrieved 8 July 2019.
- ^ "Landtagswahl Baden-Württemberg: Studenten verpassen AfD einen Dämpfer". 15 October 2017.
- ^ "ZEIT ONLINE | Lesen Sie zeit.de mit Werbung oder im PUR-Abo. Sie haben die Wahl".
- ^ "Baden-Württemberg debuts Green-led coalition with Merkel's conservative party | DW | 02.05.2016".
External links
- Electoral programs of all parties, Landeszentrale für politische Bildung Baden-Württemberg, in German