2023–2024 El Niño event
Meteorological history | |
---|---|
Formed | June 2023 |
Dissipated | April 2024 |
Overall effects | |
Damage | $75 billion |
Areas affected | The Pacific Ocean and surrounding areas |
The 2023–2024 El Niño was regarded as the fourth-most powerful
Climate scientists say the 2023–24 El Niño event, exacerbated by the
Background
Meteorological progression
During an El Niño event, the east–west trade winds die, generating warmer air temperatures in the eastern and central parts of the tropical Pacific.[13] Warmer temperatures lead to warming ocean surface temperatures, leading to heavier rainfall and flooding in the eastern Pacific.[14][15] Since there are no trade winds, the necessary rains do not form in the western Pacific, generating droughts in Asia and Oceania.[8] The phenomenon has a recurrence of between 2 and 7 years, and can last from 9 to 12 months.[7][16]
The combination of El Niño and above-normal temperatures in the Atlantic Major Development Region (MDR) tends to favor increased hurricane activity in the eastern Pacific.[17]
At the beginning of the year, it was considered that the climatic conditions of the first quarter of 2023 pointed to the occurrence of a strong El Niño event, similar to those that occurred in 1982, 1997, and 2015.[18][19] In mid-January 2023, weather forecasts regarding the probable occurrence of the El Niño phenomenon in 2023 and 2024 were published in various media.[20][21][22] Given that Earth's average temperature has already increased by 1.2 °C since pre-industrial times, a large enough El Niño event in 2023-2024 could even push the planet, temporarily, into warming greater than 1.5 °C.[11][23][24][2]
Timeline
June 2023
On June 8, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of the United States confirmed the presence of El Niño.
During the month of June 2023 the global surface air temperature was warmer than the corresponding month of any previous year.
July 2023
July 4 was declared the start date of the 2023-2024 El Niño event by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
On July 20, the government of India – the main rice exporter in the world – banned the export of non-basmati rice, in order to seek to contain the rise in prices at the domestic level and guarantee its availability in the domestic market in the face of the crisis. geopolitics, the climate crisis and the El Niño event.
During the month of July 2023 the global surface air temperature was warmer than the corresponding month of any previous year.
August 2023
September 2023
October 2023
November 2023
December 2023
January 2024
February 2024
March 2024
By early March 2024, pockets of below average Sea Surface Temperature SST Anomalies pierced the surface in the equatorial East Pacific, a clear sign that the El Niño event was in full retreat.[25]
Several severe thunderstorms bringing high winds and pea-sized hail hit Los Angeles, California, causing strong flooding in streets.[26]
In recent report, data from the Copernicus Climate Change Service showed that March 2024 was the warmest March on record around the globe. It was 1.86°C (3.35°F) warmer than pre-industrial times.[27][28]
Effects on tropical cyclone activity
Compared to previously strong El Niño events like
Impact
Australia
North America
South America
Asia
In April 2024, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) warned of heatwave conditions for 10 to 20 days in several parts of the country. The IMD said that the conditions would eventually subside with the onset of the neutral phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the monsoon in June.[38] also heatwaves in Bangladesh it's one of the biggest effects of the climate change which caused the rise of heatstrokes, closure of Bangladesh's school and almost 33 million kids can't attend school because of this and much more. Let us also not forget UAE, where there were extreme rains and flooding because of EL Nino!
On July 20, the Indian government banned the export of non-basmati rice, in order to seek to contain the rise in prices domestically and guarantee its availability in the domestic market due to the geopolitical scenario—especially the Russian invasion of Ukraine. , the effect of El Niño and the extreme weather conditions generated by the climate crisis in other rice-producing countries. This decision would affect more than 42 countries importing rice from India, especially Bangladesh, Nepal, Benin, Senegal, Costa de Ivory, Togo and Guinea. In 2022, India exported 10.3 million tons of non-basmati white rice, which represents a quarter of the total sales of the world's leading exporter of this grain.
During the month of August 2023, the absence of rain has been significant in general in the country, taking into account that August is the second rainiest of the year, after July, and during the monsoon. August 2023 is estimated to be the driest since meteorological parameters began to be recorded in 1901. In India, the impacts of El Niño develop in such a way that precipitation is suppressed in almost the entire country, except in the territories located in the east and northeast.
Oceania
Oceania has been affected since the beginning of the year by the absence of east-west trade winds and the increase in the temperature of the waters of the eastern Pacific. Since there are no trade winds, the necessary rains do not form in the western Pacific, generating droughts in Asia and Oceania
Australia
The months of May, July and August have been months of little rain. The long-term forecast is that from November to December 2023 there will be conditions with higher temperatures and drier weather. A greater number of forest fires are expected for spring than in recent years in the Northern Territory, Queensland and New South Wales, as well as regions of Victoria and South Australia
Africa
El Niño causes severe flooding in East Africa, killing 300 people
Notes
References
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- ^ a b BBVA. "Hay riesgo de que El Niño regrese en 2023: ¿Qué significa esto para el clima del planeta?". BBVA NOTICIAS (in Spanish). Retrieved 2023-09-04.
- ^ Henson, Bob (2023-06-09). "NOAA makes it official: El Niño is here » Yale Climate Connections". Yale Climate Connections. Retrieved 2023-09-04.
- ^ "Climate Prediction Center: ENSO Diagnostic Discussion". www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov. Retrieved 2023-09-04.
- ^ O’Shea, Claire (2023-08-14). "Julio de 2023 fue el mes más caluroso registrado". NASA. Retrieved 2023-09-06.
- ^ a b c "How will El Niño affect Europe's weather this winter?". euronews. 2023-09-03. Retrieved 2023-09-06.
- ^ a b "¡Llegó El Niño! Se declaró el comienzo del fenómeno en Argentina: ¿qué impactos tiene en el clima? | Servicio Meteorologico Nacional". www.smn.gob.ar. Retrieved 2023-09-04.
- ^ a b c "An El Niño could be declared as early as next week: This is what it looks like when it forms". ABC News. 2023-09-06. Retrieved 2023-09-13.
- ^ Verma, Ravi (2023-09-07). "El Nino and climate crisis may make 2023 hottest year on record". Thaiger IN. Retrieved 2023-09-07.
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- ^ "La posible vuelta del fenómeno El Niño amenaza con batir récords de temperaturas mundiales | Noticias ONU". news.un.org (in Spanish). 2023-03-01. Retrieved 2023-04-07.
- ^ Igini, Martina (2023-01-18). "El Niño Will Push Global Temperatures 'Off the Chart' in 2023, Scientists Warn". Earth.Org. Retrieved 2023-03-21.
- ^ Dareen, Seher (2023-03-09). "US forecaster says El Nino could arrive by summer 2023". Reuters. Retrieved 2023-03-21.
- ^ "Ciclón Yaku y el cambio climático". Portal sobre gestión de inundaciones (in Spanish). Retrieved 2023-03-21.
- ^ Álvarez, Juan Pablo (2023-07-04). "Fenómeno de El Niño 2023 a nivel global: ¿dónde habrá más calor, lluvia y sequías?". Bloomberg Línea (in Spanish). Retrieved 2023-09-04.
- ^ "Climate Prediction Center - Expert Assessments: East Pacific Hurricane Outlook". www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov. Retrieved 2023-09-04.
- ^ GrupoRPP (21 March 2023). "¿Las condiciones están dadas para tener un Fenómeno El Niño grave el 2024?". RPP (in Spanish). Retrieved 2023-04-07.
- ^ ""Súper El Niño", la peligrosa versión del fenómeno climático que se hace cada vez más frecuente en el Pacífico". BBC News Mundo (in Spanish). Retrieved 2023-04-07.
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- ^ "El Nino set to return in 2023 after three years: What will be its impact". Hindustan Times. 2023-01-18. Retrieved 2023-03-21.
- ^ "Modelling El Niño | ICTP". www.ictp.it. Retrieved 2023-09-06.
- ^ "How does climate change affect El Nino and La Nina cycles? – DW – 01/27/2023". dw.com. Retrieved 2023-03-21.
- ^ "How El Niño May Test the Limits of Our Climate Knowledge". Time. 2023-03-17. Retrieved 2023-03-21.
- ^ "March 2024 ENSO update: award season | NOAA Climate.gov". www.climate.gov. March 14, 2024.
- ^ "Sudden thunderstorm drops heavy rain and hail across Los Angeles County". 8 March 2024.
- ^ "Climate change: 'Uncharted territory' fears after record hot March". 2024-04-09. Retrieved 2024-04-09.
- ^ "Copernicus: March 2024 is the tenth month in a row to be the hottest on record | Copernicus". climate.copernicus.eu. Retrieved 2024-04-09.
- ^ O'Leary, Maureen (November 28, 2023). "2023 Atlantic hurricane season ranks 4th for most-named storms in a year". National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Archived from the original on November 29, 2023. Retrieved November 28, 2023.
- ^ Miller, Kimberly (November 22, 2023). "El Niño battled warm ocean temperatures during the above average 2023 hurricane season". West Palm Beach, Florida: The Palm Beach Post. Archived from the original on November 27, 2023. Retrieved November 28, 2023.
- ^ Henson, Bob; Masters, Jeff (November 30, 2023). "The unusual 2023 Atlantic hurricane season ends". New Haven, Connecticut: Yale Climate Connections. Archived from the original on November 30, 2023. Retrieved November 30, 2023.
- ^ Donegan, Brian (June 26, 2023). "Eastern Pacific could spawn first 2 tropical storms this week after unusually quiet start to hurricane season". FOX Weather. Retrieved June 26, 2023.
- ^ "Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale". Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved November 29, 2023.
- ^ Wulfeck, Andrew; Yablonski, Steven; Sistek, Scott (November 26, 2023). "Tropical Storm Ramon fizzles in what could be hurricane season's curtain call". FOX Weather. Retrieved January 22, 2024.
- ^ "Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) | National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)". www.ncei.noaa.gov. Retrieved 2024-03-05.
- ^ SitRep No. 15 for the Combined Effects of Southwest Monsoon and TC EGAY (2023) (Report). National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council. July 28, 2023. Retrieved July 28, 2023.[permanent dead link]
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- ^ "IMD warns of heatwave spells lasting 10-20 days in April-June". The Indian Express. 2024-04-01. Retrieved 2024-04-09.