2023 Aston by-election
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House of Representatives | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Registered | 110,331 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Turnout | 94,429 (85.6%) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Results of the by-election by suburb. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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The 2023 Aston by-election was held on 1 April 2023 to elect the next member of the Australian
The by-election was triggered by the resignation of Liberal MP Alan Tudge, on 17 February 2023.[1]
The ABC's Antony Green called Aston for Labor at 8:16 PM AEDT, for the Labor candidate Mary Doyle.[2] The result was considered a historic upset by the media.[3] Aston had been regarded as a safe seat for the Liberals, and had been held by the party since the 1990 federal election. It marked the first time in 103 years that a government has won a seat from the opposition in a by-election.
Background
Aston had been considered a safe Liberal seat during Tudge's tenure as MP, until becoming a marginal seat at the 2022 election.[4] News of Tudge's resignation prompted speculation that former treasurer Josh Frydenberg, who lost his seat of Kooyong at the 2022 election, would seek the Liberal Party endorsement for the by-election. However, Frydenberg declined to seek re-election, having since moved to the private sector.[4][5]
The by-election was quickly labelled as key for the Coalition who are in opposition at the federal level and have performed poorly in recent Victorian elections.[6][7] As of the date of this election, the last time a government had won a seat from the Opposition was the Kalgoorlie by-election in 1920.[8]
Election | 1996 | 1998 | 2001 (b/e) | 2001 | 2004 | 2007 | 2010 | 2013 | 2016 | 2019 | 2022 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Liberal | 55.59% | 54.24% | 50.58% | 56.17% | 63.15% | 55.05% | 51.76% | 58.20% | 58.59% | 60.13% | 52.81% | |
Labor | 44.41% | 45.76% | 49.42% | 43.87% | 36.85% | 44.05% | 48.24% | 42.80% | 42.41% | 39.87% | 47.19% | |
Government | L/NP | L/NP | L/NP | L/NP | L/NP | ALP | ALP | L/NP | L/NP | L/NP | ALP |
2022 election result
Tudge suffered a two-party-preferred swing of 7.3% against him at the 2022 election. His Labor opponent was
Candidate selections
On 17 February 2023, the ALP selected Mary Doyle as its candidate for the by-election. She had been the party's candidate against Tudge at the 2022 federal election and won preselection unopposed.[10]
On 21 February 2023, the Liberal Party selected Roshena Campbell as its candidate for the by-election. She was selected by the state party's administration committee, a decision taken to avoid the lengthy process of a members' ballot given the relatively short timeframe of the election.[11] If she was elected, Campbell would have been the first female Indian-Australian MP from the Liberal Party.[12] Other candidates for Liberal Party preselection included former state Liberal MP Cathrine Burnett-Wake, former Knox City mayor Emanuele Cicchiello, and oncologist and writer Ranjana Srivastava, who was endorsed by former premier Jeff Kennett.[11][13][14]
At the time of their preselections, neither Campbell nor Doyle lived in the seat of Aston.[15] Campbell lived in the inner-city suburb of Brunswick. She rented a property in the electorate and had promised to move to the electorate if elected.[16] Doyle lived in the suburb of Mitcham, located in the nearby Deakin electorate.[17]
The Australian Greens selected environmental engineer Angelica Di Camillo who had stood for the Greens in Rowville for the 2022 Victorian state election.[18] She grew up in Rowville and was one of several Greens candidates under 30 years old at the federal election.[19]
Key dates
Key dates in relation to the by-election are:[20][21]
- 27 February 2023 – Issue of writ
- 6 March 2023 – Close of electoral rolls
- 9 March 2023 – Close of nominations
- 10 March 2023 – Declaration of nominations
- 20 March 2023 – Start of early voting
- 29 March 2023 – Postal vote applications close
- 1 April 2023 – Polling day (8am to 6pm)
- 6 April 2023 – Declaration of result[22]
- 14 April 2023 – Last day for receipt of postal votes
- 7 June 2023 – Last day for return of writs
Candidates
Party | Candidate | Background | |
---|---|---|---|
Fusion | Owen Miller | Tech entrepreneur, artificial intelligence advocate[23] | |
Liberal | Roshena Campbell | Barrister and City of Melbourne councillor[11] | |
Greens | Angelica Di Camillo | Environmental engineer and pilates instructor, Rowville candidate in the 2022 state election[24] | |
Labor | Mary Doyle | Union organiser, Aston candidate in the 2022 federal election[25] | |
Independent | Maya Tesa | Businesswoman, Liberal Democratic candidate for North-Eastern Metropolitan in the 2022 state election and Jagajaga in the 2022 federal election; endorsed by the LDP[26][27]
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One Nation chose not to contest the by-election, with party leader Pauline Hanson stating she had made a "strategic decision not to take votes away from the Coalition".[28]
Simon Holmes à Court, founder of Climate 200, had expressed interest in funding a community-based teal independent if one were to run.[29]
The Conservative Party, an unregistered party, endorsed volunteer community radio presenter Mark Gardner as a candidate but he did not end up contesting.[30]
Campaign
The Liberal Party campaigned on the rising cost of living and the withdrawal of funding to local road and transport projects under the new Albanese Labor government.[31] These projects included the Dorset Road extension, Wellington Road duplication, Napoleon Road duplication and the proposed Rowville railway line (also known as Monash Rail).[32][33]
Labor campaigned on Liberal leader Peter Dutton's unpopularity, and the unpopularity of the Liberal Party generally. Labor also highlighted Dutton's rhetoric against China in messaging to Chinese Australians.[16] The Labor Party also highlighted the fact that Campbell did not live in the outer eastern suburbs of Melbourne where the seat is located.
A week before the election, the
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Labor | Mary Doyle | 37,318 | 40.87 | +8.32 | |
Liberal | Roshena Campbell | 35,680 | 39.07 | –3.98 | |
Greens | Angelica Di Camillo | 9,256 | 10.14 | –1.94 | |
Independent | Maya Tesa | 6,426 | 7.04 | +7.04 | |
Fusion | Owen Miller | 2,637 | 2.89 | +2.89 | |
Total formal votes | 91,317 | 96.70 | −0.03 | ||
Informal votes | 3,112 | 3.30 | +0.03 | ||
Turnout | 94,429 | 85.64 | −6.86 | ||
Two-party-preferred result | |||||
Labor | Mary Doyle | 48,915 | 53.57 | +6.38 | |
Liberal | Roshena Campbell | 42,402 | 46.43 | –6.38 | |
Labor gain from Liberal | Swing | +6.38 |
See also
References
- ^ "Aston by-election". aph.gov.au. 17 February 2023.
- ^ Yu, Andi (1 April 2023). "Labor snatches historic victory in Aston by-election in Melbourne's outer east". ABC News.
- ^ Smethurst, Annika; Galloway, Anthony; Cunningham, Melissa (1 April 2023). "Labor secures historic upset in Aston, 'worst byelection result in 100 years' for Liberals". The Age.
- ^ a b Speers, David; Worthington, Brett (9 February 2023). "Liberal Alan Tudge quits politics, Josh Frydenberg rules out comeback". ABC News. Australian Broadcasting Corporation. Retrieved 9 February 2023.
- Nine Entertainment Co.Retrieved 9 February 2023.
- ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved 9 February 2023.
- ^ Shanahan, Dennis (9 February 2023). "Alan Tudge exit makes Aston a must-win by-election for Peter Dutton". The Australian. News Corp Australia. Archived from the original on 9 February 2023. Retrieved 9 February 2023.
- ^ Martino, Matt (27 July 2018). "Fact check: Has a government not won a seat from an opposition at a by-election in 100 years?". ABC News. Australian Broadcasting Corporation. Retrieved 14 March 2023.
- ^ "2022 Federal Election: Aston, VIC". AEC Tally Room. Australian Electoral Commission. 17 June 2022. Retrieved 13 February 2023.
- ^ Osborne, Paul (17 February 2023). "Labor preselects Mary Doyle as candidate for Aston by-election". The New Daily. Retrieved 13 March 2023.
- ^ a b c Karp, Paul; Kolovos, Benita (21 February 2023). "Aston byelection: barrister Roshena Campbell selected as Liberal candidate". The Guardian.
- ^ Smethurst, Annika (3 March 2023). "Roshena Campbell will make history for the Liberal Party, win or lose". The Age. Retrieved 7 March 2023.
- Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved 15 February 2023.
- Nine Entertainment Co.Retrieved 13 February 2023.
- ^ Ransley, Ellen (22 February 2023). "Awkward detail in fight for Alan Tudge's seat as candidates fight over addresses". News.com.au. Retrieved 13 March 2023.
- ^ a b Willingham, Richard (1 April 2023). "As Labor battles history and voter apathy in Aston, a Liberal loss would spell disaster". ABC News. Retrieved 1 April 2023.
- ^ Kolovos, Benita; Lee, Jane (30 March 2023). "Aston byelection: voters in the former Liberal stronghold hold Peter Dutton's future in their hands". The Guardian. Archived from the original on 1 April 2023. Retrieved 1 April 2023.
- ^ Hui, Jin (15 March 2023). "Greens candidate for Aston Angelica Di Camillo wants to build on strong 2022 results". Ferntree Gully Star Mail. Retrieved 3 April 2023.
- ^ https://www.instagram.com/p/ClSxeQoBzUJ/
- ^ "By-election for Aston". aph.gov.au. 20 February 2023.
- ^ "2023 Aston by-election". Australian Electoral Commission. Retrieved 20 February 2023.
- ^ Australian Electoral Commission [@AusElectoralCom] (6 April 2023). "The #Aston federal by-election has been formally declared this morning with Mary Doyle (ALP) officially elected as the new member in @AboutTheHouse" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
- ^ "Fusion Party announces tech entrepreneur and AI advocate Owen Miller as candidate for 2023 Aston by-election". Fusion Party. 28 February 2023.
- ^ McLeod, Catie (4 March 2023). "Anthony Albanese says odds are against Labor in Aston by-election". The Australian.
The Greens announced Angelica Di Camillo as their candidate for the Aston by-election on Saturday
- ^ Massola, James; Sakkal, Paul; Smethurst, Annika (16 February 2023). "Mary Doyle to be Labor's candidate in Tudge seat of Aston". The Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved 17 February 2023.
- ^ McKenzie, Parker (1 March 2023). "Independent Libertarian candidate announces nomination for Aston by-election". StarMail.
- ^ "We've endorsed Libertarian Independent Maya Tesa for today's Aston by-election". Twitter. Liberal Democrats Australia.
- ^ Smethurst, Annika; Sakkal, Paul (10 March 2023). "Pauline Hanson out of Aston byelection to help Libs, Labor launches attack ads". The Age.
- Melbourne, Victoria.
- ^ "Battle for Aston: Roshena Campbell embodies Dutton's conservative vision". The Age.
- ^ Speers, David (30 March 2023). "The Liberals may be expecting a narrow win in Aston, but they're far more nervous than Labor about what's at stake". ABC News. Retrieved 2 April 2023.
- ^ "Aston Electorate: By-election". Parliament of Australia. 30 March 2023. Retrieved 2 April 2023.
- ^ "Monash Rail". Department of Infrastructure, Transport, Regional Development, Communications and the Arts. Retrieved 2 April 2023.
- ^ McIlroy, Tom (31 March 2023). "'Three would be cataclysmic': Why Aston is about more than one seat". Australian Financial Review. Retrieved 2 April 2023.
- ^ Ilanbey, Sumeyya; Smethurst, Annika (28 March 2023). "Dutton warns his federal MPs to remain united, in direct swipe at Victorian Liberals". The Age. Retrieved 2 April 2023.
- ^ "Aston, VIC". Australian Electoral Commission. Retrieved 8 May 2023.
External links
- Media related to 2023 Aston by-election at Wikimedia Commons
- 2023 Aston by-election – Australian Electoral Commission
- Aston by-election – ABC Elections
- Aston by-election, 2023 – The Tally Room