2023 DZ2
Synodic rotation period | 0.105 hours (6.3 min)[6] | |
10.1 (at closest approach 2023)[7] | ||
24.2±0.4 mag[1] | ||
2023 DZ2 is an asteroid roughly 70 meters in diameter, classified as a near-Earth object of the Apollo group, and originally a Virtual Impactor (VI). It was first observed on 27 February 2023, when it was 0.11 AU (16 million km) from Earth, with the Isaac Newton Telescope by Ovidiu Vaduvescu, Freya Barwell, and Kiran Jhass (ING and University of Sheffield student support astronomers) within the EURONEAR project.[2] It passed 174,644 ± 0.9 km (108,518.75 ± 0.56 mi) of Earth on March 25, 2023.[1] This is a little less than half the distance to the Moon. This was the largest asteroid to approach this close since 2019 OK.[6] On March 21, 2023 with a 66-day observation arc, it was removed from the Sentry Risk Table.[8] Due to the highly precise radar observations on 25 March 2023 we know that the 2004 Earth approach was closer than the 2023 approach.[1]
Date & time | Nominal distance | uncertainty region ( 3-sigma )
|
---|---|---|
2004-Apr-18 23:57 ± 22 minutes | 129737 km[1] | ± 3000 km[9] |
2023-Mar-25 19:49[10][a] | 174644 km[1] | ± 0.9 km[11] |
2026-Apr-04 02:01 ± 2 minutes | 1012259 km[1] | ± 120 km[12] |
The 2023 approach was visible to
Identification
The discovery was carried out within the (Data-parallel detection of Solar System objects and space debris) ParaSOL project that is sponsored by UEFISCDI in Romania and led by Marcel Popescu. The new NEA was identified by Costin Boldea and by the STU ParaSOL software pipeline developed by the amateur astronomer Malin Stanescu. Other members of the EURONEAR collaboration who participated in the data analysis were Marian Predatu, and the amateur astronomers Lucian Curelaru and Daniel Bertesteanu.
Description
2023 DZ2 is approximately 40–90 meters (130–300 feet) in diameter.
The visible
Before the Earth approach, it follows a rather eccentric (0.54), low-inclination (0.08°) orbit of 3.16 years duration, ranging between 0.99 and 3.32
Ruled-out virtual impactors
On 18 March 2023 when the asteroid had an observation arc of 63 days, virtual clones of the asteroid that fit the uncertainty region in the known trajectory showed a 1-in-430 chance that the asteroid could impact Earth on 27 March 2026.[15] Three days later with a 66-day observation arc it was removed from the Sentry Risk Table.[8] It is now known that the nominal approach (line of variation) has the asteroid 0.032 AU (4.8 million km) ± 900 km from Earth at the time of the potential impact on 27 March 2026.[16] The asteroid will safely approach Earth on 4 April 2026, a week after the potential impact scenario.[1] It was estimated that an impact would produce an upper atmosphere air burst equivalent to 4.5 Mt TNT (19 PJ),[5] roughly equal to 214 of the Fat Man warhead dropped on Nagasaki, or a little over a third of the Tunguska event.
External videos | |
---|---|
2023 DZ2 flyby through a remote telescope of Abbey Ridge Observatory (Canada). | |
2023 DZ2 flyby through a Unistellar 112mm telescope under the light pollution of Sacramento, CA. |
Solution | Observation arc (in days) |
) | uncertainty region ( 3-sigma )
|
Impact probability |
Torino
scale |
Palermo scale (max) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JPL #1 (2023-Mar-16) | 2 (31 obs) | 0.625 AU (93.5 million km) | ± 700 million km | 1:7700[17] | 0 | –2.19 |
JPL #3 (2023-Mar-17) | 18 (56 obs) | 0.067 AU (10.0 million km) | ± 38 million km | 1:590[18] | 1 | –1.19 |
JPL #4 (2023-Mar-18) | 63 (94 obs) | 0.036 AU (5.4 million km) | ± 9 million km | 1:430[15] | 1 | –1.17 |
JPL #5 (2023-Mar-19) | 64 (122 obs) | 0.033 AU (4.9 million km) | ± 4 million km | 1:71000[19][d] | 0 | –3.40 |
JPL #6 (2023-Mar-20) | 65 (142 obs) | 0.033 AU (4.9 million km) | ± 3 million km | 1:38000000[5] | 0 | –6.14 |
JPL #7 (2023-Mar-21) | 66 (182 obs) | 0.030 AU (4.5 million km) | ± 1 million km | none[8] | N/A | N/A |
JPL #8 (2023-Mar-22) | 67 (246 obs) | 0.030 AU (4.5 million km) | ± 1 million km | none | N/A | N/A |
With an observation arc of 63 days it peaked at a Palermo scale rating of –1.17[15] with the odds of impact then being about 15 times less than the background hazard level.
The early May 2029 approach is not an impact threat as the orbits only intersect in late March.[17]
Gallery
-
Stacked image of 2023 DZ2 from 52 60-second photos taken remotely on March 21, 2023, at Abbey Ridge Observatory (Canada).
-
2023 DZ2 imaged with a Unistellar 112mm telescope under the light pollution of Sacramento, CA on 24 March 2023.
Notes
- ^ If 2023 DZ2 had been arriving approximately 19 hours later it would have impacted into Earth as that is where the two orbits intersect.
- opposition effectthat causes a brightening of the object.
- artificial satellitethat will look like a star steadily moving across the sky for a few minutes.
- 3-sigma uncertainty region became smaller than the nominal approach distance. A virtual impactor is the result of a line of variations (ellipse)that is narrow and long and stretches along the asteroids known orbit. The Earth distance at the time of the virtual impactor dropped from 5 ± 9 million km to 5 ± 4 million km.
References
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l "JPL Small-Body Database Browser: (2023 DZ2)" (2023-03-27 last obs.). Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Archived from the original on 16 March 2023. Retrieved 28 March 2023.
- ^ a b "MPEC 2023-F12 : 2023 DZ2". Minor Planet Center. Retrieved 16 March 2023.
- ^ a b "Perihelion (post Earth encounter) on 4 April 2023" (Perihelion occurs when rdot flips from negative to positive). JPL Horizons. Retrieved 17 March 2023.
- ^ a b "CNEOS Close Approaches". NASA JPL CNEOS. Archived from the original on 25 March 2023.
- ^ a b c "Archive of Sentry Risk Table: 2023 DZ2 (64.6 day arc with 142 obs)". NASA JPL CNEOS. Archived from the original on 20 March 2023.
- ^ a b c Lance A. M. Benner (22 March 2023). "Goldstone Radar Observations Planning: 2023 DZ2". NASA/JPL Asteroid Radar Research. Retrieved 22 March 2023.
- ^ a b c "JPL Horizons Ephemeris for March 2023". JPL Horizons. Retrieved 17 March 2023. (magnitude @ CA)
- ^ a b c "Sentry (Removed Objects)". NASA/JPL Near-Earth Object Program Office. Archived from the original on 21 March 2023.
- ^ "JPL Horizons: 2023 DZ2 geocentric distance and uncertainty on 18 April 2004". JPL Horizons. Archived from the original on 28 March 2023. Retrieved 28 March 2023.
- ^ "JPL Horizons solution for time of closest approach on 25 March 2023" (Closest approach occurs when deldot flips from negative to positive). JPL Horizons. Archived from the original on 23 March 2023. Retrieved 25 March 2023.
- ^ "JPL Horizons: 2023 DZ2 geocentric distance and uncertainty on 25 March 2023". JPL Horizons. Archived from the original on 18 March 2023. Retrieved 28 March 2023.
- ^ "JPL Horizons: 2023 DZ2 geocentric distance and uncertainty on 4 Apr 2026 close approach". JPL Horizons. Archived from the original on 29 March 2023. Retrieved 29 March 2023.
- ^ S2CID 259202764.
- ^ "Horizons Batch showing epoch 2023-Apr-25". JPL Horizons. Archived from the original on 21 March 2023. Retrieved 21 March 2023.
- ^ a b c "Archive of Sentry Risk Table: 2023 DZ2 (62.9 day arc with 94 obs)". NASA JPL CNEOS. Archived from the original on 18 March 2023.
- ^ "JPL Horizons: 2023 DZ2 geocentric distance and uncertainty on 27 March 2026 VI". JPL Horizons. Archived from the original on 17 March 2023. Retrieved 28 March 2023.
- ^ a b "Archive of Sentry Risk Table: 2023 DW (1.98 day arc)". NASA JPL CNEOS. Archived from the original on 16 March 2023.
- ^ "Archive of Sentry Risk Table: 2023 DZ2 (17.1 day arc with 56 obs)". NASA JPL CNEOS. Archived from the original on 17 March 2023.
- ^ "Archive of Sentry Risk Table: 2023 DZ2 (63.9 day arc with 122 obs)". NASA JPL CNEOS. Archived from the original on 19 March 2023.
External links
- 2023 DZ2 at NeoDyS-2, Near Earth Objects—Dynamic Site
- 2023 DZ2 at ESA–space situational awareness
- 2023 DZ2 at the JPL Small-Body Database