Space debris
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Space debris (also known as space junk, space pollution,
Space debris is typically a
Several spacecraft, both crewed and un-crewed, have been damaged or destroyed by space debris. The measurement, mitigation, and potential removal of debris is conducted by some participants in the space industry.[8]
As of November 2022[update], the US Space Surveillance Network reported 25,857 artificial objects in orbit above the Earth,[9] including 5,465 operational satellites.[10] However, these are just the objects large enough to be tracked and in an orbit that makes tracking possible. Satellite debris that is in a Molniya orbit, such as the Kosmos Oko series, might be too high above the Northern Hemisphere to be tracked.[11] As of January 2019[update], more than 128 million pieces of debris smaller than 1 cm (0.4 in), about 900,000 pieces of debris 1–10 cm, and around 34,000 of pieces larger than 10 cm (3.9 in) were estimated to be in orbit around the Earth.[8] When the smallest objects of artificial space debris (paint flecks, solid rocket exhaust particles, etc.) are grouped with micrometeoroids, they are together sometimes referred to by space agencies as MMOD (Micrometeoroid and Orbital Debris).
Collisions with debris have become a hazard to spacecraft. The smallest objects cause damage akin to
Below 2,000 km (1,200 mi), pieces of debris are denser than
History
Space debris began to accumulate in Earth orbit with the launch of the first
After the launch of Sputnik, the
NORAD trackers who fed the database were aware of other objects in orbit, many of which were the result of in-orbit explosions.[21] Some were deliberately caused during anti-satellite weapon (ASAT) testing in the 1960s, and others were the result of rocket stages blowing up in orbit as leftover propellant expanded and ruptured their tanks. More detailed databases and tracking systems were gradually developed, including Gabbard diagrams, to improve the modeling of orbital evolution and decay.[22][23]
When the NORAD database became publicly available during the 1970s,[clarification needed] techniques developed for the asteroid-belt were applied to the study[by whom?] of known artificial satellite objects.[citation needed]
Time and natural gravitational/atmospheric effects help to clear space debris. A variety of technological approaches have also been proposed, though most have not been implemented. A number of scholars have observed that systemic factors, political, legal, economic, and cultural, are the greatest impediment to the cleanup of near-Earth space. There has been little commercial incentive to reduce space debris since the associated cost does not accrue to the entity producing it. Rather, the cost falls to all users of the space environment who benefit from space technology and knowledge. A number of suggestions for increasing incentives to reduce space debris have been made. These would encourage companies to see the economic benefit of reducing debris more aggressively than existing government mandates require.[24] In 1979, NASA founded the Orbital Debris Program to research mitigation measures for space debris in Earth orbit.[25][26]
Debris growth
During the 1980s, NASA and other U.S. groups attempted to limit the growth of debris. One trial solution was implemented by McDonnell Douglas in 1981 for the Delta launch vehicle by having the booster move away from its payload and vent any propellant remaining in its tanks.[27] This eliminated one source for pressure buildup in the tanks which had previously caused them to explode and create additional orbital debris.[28] Other countries were slower to adopt this measure and, due especially to a number of launches by the Soviet Union, the problem grew throughout the decade.[29]
A new battery of studies followed as NASA, NORAD, and others attempted to better understand the orbital environment, with each adjusting the number of pieces of debris in the critical-mass zone upward. Although in 1981 (when Schefter's article was published) the number of objects was estimated at 5,000,
A 2006 NASA model suggested that if no new launches took place, the environment would retain the then-known population until about 2055, when it would increase on its own.[34][35] Richard Crowther of Britain's Defence Evaluation and Research Agency said in 2002 that he believed the cascade would begin about 2015.[36] The National Academy of Sciences, summarizing the professional view, noted widespread agreement that two bands of LEO space – 900 to 1,000 km (620 mi) and 1,500 km (930 mi) – were already past critical density.[37]
In the 2009 CEAS European Air and Space Conference, University of Southampton researcher Hugh Lewis predicted that the threat from space debris would rise 50 percent in the next decade and quadruple in the next 50 years. As of 2009[update], more than 13,000 close calls were tracked weekly.[38]
A 2011 report by the
Debris history in particular years
- By mid-1994 there had been 68 breakups or debris "anomalous events" involving satellites launched by the former Soviet Union/Russia and 18 similar events had been discovered involving rocket bodies and other propulsion-related operational debris.[40]
- As of 2009[update], 19,000 debris over 5 cm (2 in) were tracked by the United States Space Surveillance Network.[16]
- As of July 2013[update], estimates of more than 170 million debris smaller than 1 cm (0.4 in), about 670,000 debris 1–10 cm, and approximately 29,000 larger pieces of debris were in orbit.[41]
- As of July 2016[update], nearly 18,000 artificial objects were orbiting above Earth,[42] including 1,419 operational satellites.[43]
- As of October 2019[update], nearly 20,000 artificial objects were in orbit above the Earth,[9] including 2,218 operational satellites.[10]
Characterization
Size and numbers
As of January 2019[update] there were estimated to be over 128 million pieces of debris smaller than 1 cm (0.39 in), and approximately 900,000 pieces between 1 and 10 cm. The count of large debris (defined as 10 cm across or larger[44]) was 34,000 in 2019,[8] and at least 37,000 by June 2023.[45] The technical measurement cut-off[clarification needed] is c. 3 mm (0.12 in).[46]
As of 2020[update], there were 8,000 metric tons of debris in orbit, a figure that is expected to increase.[47]
Low Earth orbit
In the orbits nearest to Earth – less than 2,000 km (1,200 mi)
Orbits are affected by gravitational perturbations (which in LEO include unevenness of the Earth's gravitational field due to variations in the density of the planet), and collisions can occur from any direction. The average impact speed of collisions in Low Earth Orbit is 10 km/s with maximums reaching above 14 km/s due to orbital eccentricity.[49] The 2009 satellite collision occurred at a closing speed of 11.7 km/s (26,000 mph),[50] creating over 2,000 large debris fragments.[51] These debris cross many other orbits and increase debris collision risk.
It is theorized that a sufficiently large collision of spacecraft could potentially lead to a cascade effect, or even make some particular low Earth orbits effectively unusable for long term use by orbiting satellites, a phenomenon known as the Kessler syndrome.[52] The theoretical effect is projected to be a theoretical runaway chain reaction of collisions that could occur, exponentially increasing the number and density of space debris in low-Earth orbit, and has been hypothesized to ensue beyond some critical density.[53]
Crewed space missions are mostly at 400 km (250 mi) altitude and below, where air drag helps clear zones of fragments. The upper atmosphere is not a fixed density at any particular orbital altitude; it varies as a result of atmospheric tides and expands or contracts over longer time periods as a result of space weather.[54] These longer-term effects can increase drag at lower altitudes; the 1990s expansion was a factor in reduced debris density.[55] Another factor was fewer launches by Russia; the Soviet Union made most of their launches in the 1970s and 1980s.[56]: 7
Higher altitudes
At higher altitudes, where air drag is less significant, orbital decay takes longer. Slight atmospheric drag, lunar perturbations, Earth's gravity perturbations, solar wind, and solar radiation pressure can gradually bring debris down to lower altitudes (where it decays), but at very high altitudes this may take centuries.[57] Although high-altitude orbits are less commonly used than LEO and the onset of the problem is slower, the numbers progress toward the critical threshold more quickly.[contradictory][page needed][58]
Many communications satellites are in geostationary orbits (GEO), clustering over specific targets and sharing the same orbital path. Although velocities are low between GEO objects, when a satellite becomes derelict (such as Telstar 401) it assumes a geosynchronous orbit; its orbital inclination increases about 0.8° and its speed increases about 160 km/h (99 mph) per year. Impact velocity peaks at about 1.5 km/s (0.93 mi/s). Orbital perturbations cause longitude drift of the inoperable spacecraft and precession of the orbital plane. Close approaches (within 50 meters) are estimated at one per year.[59] The collision debris pose less short-term risk than from a LEO collision, but the satellite would likely become inoperable. Large objects, such as solar-power satellites, are especially vulnerable to collisions.[60]
Although the ITU now requires proof a satellite can be moved out of its orbital slot at the end of its lifespan, studies suggest this is insufficient.[61] Since GEO orbit is too distant to accurately measure objects under 1 m (3 ft 3 in), the nature of the problem is not well known.[62] Satellites could be moved to empty spots in GEO, requiring less maneuvering and making it easier to predict future motion.[63] Satellites or boosters in other orbits, especially stranded in geostationary transfer orbit, are an additional concern due to their typically high crossing velocity.
Despite efforts to reduce risk, spacecraft collisions have occurred. The
Sources
Dead spacecraft
In 1958, the United States of America launched
Occasionally satellites are left in orbit when they're no longer useful. Many countries require that satellites go through passivation at the end of their life. The satellites are then either boosted into a higher, "graveyard" orbit or a lower, short-term orbit. Nonetheless, satellites that have been properly moved to a higher orbit have an eight-percent probability of puncture and coolant release over a 50-year period. The coolant freezes into droplets of solid sodium-potassium alloy, creating more debris.[13][72]
Despite the use of passivation, or prior to its standardization, many satellites and rocket bodies have exploded or broken apart on orbit. In February 2015, for example, the
In addition to the accidental creation of debris, some has been made intentionally through the deliberate destruction of satellites. This has been done as a test of anti-satellite or anti-ballistic missile technology, or to prevent a sensitive satellite from being examined by a foreign power.
Lost equipment
Space debris includes a glove lost by astronaut
Boosters
A significant portion of debris is due to rocket upper stages (e.g. the Inertial Upper Stage) breaking up due to decomposition of unvented fuel.[80] The first such instance involved the launch of the Transit-4a satellite in 1961. Two hours after insertion, the Ablestar upper stage exploded. Even boosters that don't break apart can be a problem. A major known impact event involved an (intact) Ariane booster.[56]: 2
Although NASA and the United States Air Force now require upper-stage passivation, other launchers – such as the Chinese and Russian space agencies – do not. Lower stages, like the Space Shuttle's solid rocket boosters or the Apollo program's Saturn IB launch vehicles, do not reach orbit.[81]
Examples:
- Two Japanese H-2A rockets broke up in 2006.[82]
- A Russian Arabsat-4A communications satellite, it malfunctioned before it could use up its propellant. Although the explosion was captured on film by astronomers, due to the orbit path the debris cloud has been difficult to measure with radar. By 21 February 2007, over 1,000 fragments were identified.[83][84] A 14 February 2007 breakup was recorded by Celestrak.[85]
- Another Briz-M broke up on 16 October 2012 after a failed 6 August Proton-M launch. The amount and size of the debris was unknown.[86]
- The second stage of the Zenit-2, called the SL-16 by western governments, along with the second stages of the Vostok and Kosmos launch vehicles, make up about 20% of the total mass of launch debris in Low Earth Orbit (LEO).[87] An analysis that determined the 50 "statistically most concerning" debris objects in low Earth orbit determined that the top 20 were all Zenit-2 upper stages.[88]
- a Delta II rocket used to launch NASA's 1989 COBE spacecraft exploded on December 3, 2006. This occurred even though its residual fuel had already been vented to space.[82]
- In 2018–2019, three different Atlas V Centaur second stages broke up.[89][90][91]
- In December 2020, scientists confirmed that a previously detected near-Earth object, 2020 SO, was rocket booster space junk launched in 1966 orbiting Earth and the Sun.[92]
- At least eight Delta rockets have contributed orbital debris in the Sun-synchronous low Earth orbit environment. The variant of the Delta upper stage that was used in the 1970s was found to be prone to in-orbit explosions. Starting in 1981, depletion burns – to get rid of excess propellant – became standard and no Delta Rocket Bodies launched after 1981 experienced severe fragmentations afterward, but some of those launched prior to 1981 continued to explode. In 1991, the Delta 1975-052B fragmented, 16 years after launch, demonstrating the resilience of the propellent.[93]
Weapons
A former source of debris was anti-satellite weapons (ASATs) testing by the U.S. and Soviet Union during the 1960s and 1970s.
The U.S. restarted their ASAT programs in the 1980s with the Vought ASM-135 ASAT. A 1985 test destroyed a 1-tonne (2,200 lb) satellite orbiting at 525 km (326 mi), creating thousands of debris larger than 1 cm (0.39 in). At this altitude, atmospheric drag decayed the orbit of most debris within a decade. A de facto moratorium followed the test.[96]
China's government was condemned for the military implications and the amount of debris from the 2007 anti-satellite missile test,[97] the largest single space debris incident in history (creating over 2,300 pieces golf-ball size or larger, over 35,000 1 cm (0.4 in) or larger, and one million pieces 1 mm (0.04 in) or larger). The target satellite orbited between 850 km (530 mi) and 882 km (548 mi), the portion of near-Earth space most densely populated with satellites.[98] Since atmospheric drag is low at that altitude, the debris is slow to return to Earth, and in June 2007 NASA's Terra environmental spacecraft maneuvered to avoid impact from the debris.[99] Brian Weeden, U.S. Air Force officer and Secure World Foundation staff member, noted that the 2007 Chinese satellite explosion created an orbital debris of more than 3,000 separate objects that then required tracking.[100]
On 20 February 2008, the U.S. launched an SM-3 missile from the USS Lake Erie to destroy a defective U.S. spy satellite thought to be carrying 450 kg (1,000 lb) of toxic hydrazine propellant. The event occurred at about 250 km (155 mi), and the resulting debris has a perigee of 250 km (155 mi) or lower.[101] The missile was aimed to minimize the amount of debris, which (according to Pentagon Strategic Command chief Kevin Chilton) had decayed by early 2009.[102]
On 27 March 2019, Indian Prime Minister
On 15 November 2021, the Russian Defense Ministry destroyed Kosmos 1408[104] orbiting at around 450 km, creating "more than 1,500 pieces of trackable debris and hundreds of thousands of pieces of un-trackable debris" according to the US State Department.[105]
The vulnerability of satellites to debris and the possibility of attacking LEO satellites to create debris clouds has triggered speculation that it is possible for countries unable to make a precision attack.[clarification needed] An attack on a satellite of 10 t (22,000 lb) or more would heavily damage the LEO environment.[96]
Hazards
To spacecraft
Space junk can be a hazard to active satellites and spacecraft. It has been suggested that Earth orbit could even become impassable if the risk of collision becomes too great.[106][failed verification]
However, since the risk to spacecraft increases with exposure to high debris densities, it is more accurate to say that LEO would be rendered unusable by orbiting craft. The threat to craft passing through LEO to reach a higher orbit would be much lower owing to the short time span of the crossing.
Uncrewed spacecraft
Although spacecraft are typically protected by Whipple shields, solar panels, which are exposed to the Sun, wear from low-mass impacts. Even small impacts can produce a cloud of plasma which is an electrical risk to the panels.[107]
Satellites are believed to have been destroyed by micrometeorites and (small) orbital debris (MMOD). The earliest suspected loss was of Kosmos 1275, which disappeared on 24 July 1981 (a month after launch). Kosmos contained no volatile fuel, therefore, there appeared to be nothing internal to the satellite which could have caused the destructive explosion which took place. However, the case has not been proven and another hypothesis forwarded is that the battery exploded. Tracking showed it broke up, into 300 objects.[108]
Many impacts have been confirmed since. For example, on 24 July 1996, the French
The
Satellites sometimes[
Crewed spacecraft
Crewed flights are particularly vulnerable to space debris conjunctions in the orbital path of the spacecraft. Occasional avoidance maneuvers or longer-term space debris wear have affected the space shuttle, the MIR space station, and the International Space Station.
Space Shuttle missions
From the early shuttle missions, NASA used NORAD space monitoring capabilities to assess the shuttle's orbital path for debris. In the 1980s, this consumed a large proportion of NORAD capacity.[28] The first collision-avoidance maneuver occurred during STS-48, in September,1991,[120] a seven-second thruster burn to avoid debris from the derelict satellite Kosmos 955.[121] Similar maneuvers were executed on missions 53, 72 and 82.[120]
One of the earliest events to publicize the debris problem occurred on Space Shuttle Challenger's second flight, STS-7. A fleck of paint struck its front window, creating a pit over 1 mm (0.04 in) wide. On STS-59 in 1994, Endeavour's front window was pitted about half its depth. Minor debris impacts increased from 1998.[122]
Window chipping and minor damage to thermal protection system tiles (TPS) were already common by the 1990s. The Shuttle was later flown tail-first to take a greater proportion of the debris load on the engines and rear cargo bay, which are not used in orbit or during descent, and thus are less critical for post-launch operation. When flying attached to the ISS, a shuttle was flipped around so the better-armoured station shielded the orbiter.[123]
A NASA 2005 study concluded that debris accounted for approximately half of the overall risk to the Shuttle.[123][124] Executive-level decision to proceed was required if the catastrophic impact was more likely than 1 in 200. On a normal (low-orbit) mission to the ISS, the risk was approximately 1 in 300, but the Hubble telescope repair mission was flown at the higher orbital altitude of 560 km (350 mi) where the risk was initially calculated at a 1-in-185 (due in part to the 2009 satellite collision). A re-analysis with better debris numbers reduced the estimated risk to 1 in 221, and the mission went ahead.[125]
Debris incidents continued on later Shuttle missions. During
Mir
Impact wear was notable on the Soviet space station Mir, since it remained in space for long periods with its original solar module panels.[128][129]
International Space Station
The ISS also uses Whipple shielding to protect its interior from minor debris.[130] However, exterior portions (notably its solar panels) cannot be protected easily. In 1989, the ISS panels were predicted to degrade approximately 0.23% in four years due to the "sandblasting" effect of impacts with small orbital debris.[131] An avoidance maneuver is typically performed for the ISS if "there is a greater than one-in-10,000 chance of a debris strike".[132] As of January 2014[update], there have been sixteen maneuvers in the fifteen years the ISS had been in orbit.[132] By 2019, over 1,400 meteoroid and orbital debris (MMOD) impacts had been recorded on the ISS.[133]
As another method to reduce the risk to humans on board, ISS operational management asked the crew to shelter in the
Kessler syndrome
The Kessler syndrome,[138][139] proposed by NASA scientist Donald J. Kessler in 1978, is a theoretical scenario in which the density of objects in low Earth orbit (LEO) is high enough that collisions between objects could cause a cascade effect where each collision generates space debris that increases the likelihood of further collisions.[140] He further theorized that one implication, if this were to occur, is that the distribution of debris in orbit could render space activities and the use of satellites in specific orbital ranges economically impractical for many generations.[140]
The growth in the number of objects as a result of the late-1990s studies sparked debate in the space community on the nature of the problem and the earlier dire warnings. According to Kessler's 1991 derivation and 2001 updates,[141] the LEO environment in the 1,000 km (620 mi) altitude range should be cascading. However, only one major satellite collision incident occurred: the 2009 satellite collision between Iridium 33 and Cosmos 2251. The lack of obvious short-term cascading has led to speculation that the original estimates overstated the problem.[142] According to Kessler in 2010 however, a cascade may not be obvious until it is well advanced, which might take years.[143]
On Earth
Although most debris burns up in the atmosphere, larger debris objects can reach the ground intact. According to NASA, an average of one cataloged piece of debris has fallen back to Earth each day for the past 50 years. Despite their size, there has been no significant property damage from the debris.[144] Burning up in the atmosphere contributes to air pollution.[145] Numerous small cylindrical tanks from space objects have been found, designed to hold fuel or gasses.[146]
Tracking and measurement
Tracking from the ground
Radar and optical detectors such as
The
Measurement in space
Returned space hardware is a valuable source of information on the directional distribution and composition of the (sub-millimetre) debris flux. The
The
Gabbard diagrams
A debris cloud resulting from a single event is studied with
Dealing with debris
An average of about one tracked object per day has been dropping out of orbit for the past 50 years,[161] averaging almost three objects per day at solar maximum (due to the heating and expansion of the Earth's atmosphere), but one about every three days at solar minimum, usually five and a half years later.[161] In addition to natural atmospheric effects, corporations, academics and government agencies have proposed plans and technology to deal with space debris, but as of November 2014[update], most of these are theoretical, and there is no business plan for debris reduction.[24]
A number of scholars have also observed that institutional factors – political, legal, economic, and cultural "rules of the game" – are the greatest impediment to the cleanup of near-Earth space. There is little commercial incentive to act, since
National and international regulation
There is no international treaty minimizing space debris. However, the United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (COPUOS) published voluntary guidelines in 2007,[164] using a variety of earlier national regulatory attempts at developing standards for debris mitigation. As of 2008, the committee was discussing international "rules of the road" to prevent collisions between satellites.[165] By 2013, a number of national legal regimes existed,[166][167][168] typically instantiated in the launch licenses that are required for a launch in all spacefaring nations.[169]
The U.S. issued a set of standard practices for civilian (NASA) and military (DoD and USAF) orbital-debris mitigation in 2001.[170][171][167] The standard envisioned disposal for final mission orbits in one of three ways: 1) atmospheric reentry where even with "conservative projections for solar activity, atmospheric drag will limit the lifetime to no longer than 25 years after completion of mission;" 2) maneuver to a "storage orbit:" move the spacecraft to one of four very broad parking orbit ranges (2,000–19,700 km (1,200–12,200 mi), 20,700–35,300 km (12,900–21,900 mi), above 36,100 km (22,400 mi), or out of Earth orbit completely and into any heliocentric orbit; 3) "Direct retrieval: Retrieve the structure and remove it from orbit as soon as practicable after completion of mission."[166] The standard articulated in option 1, which is the standard applicable to most satellites and derelict upper stages, has come to be known as the "25-year rule".[172] The US updated the Orbital Debris Mitigation Standard Practices (ODMSP) in December 2019, but made no change to the 25-year rule even though "[m]any in the space community believe that the timeframe should be less than 25 years."[173] There is no consensus however on what any new timeframe might be.[173]
In 2002, the European Space Agency (ESA) worked with an international group to promulgate a similar set of standards, also with a "25-year rule" applying to most Earth-orbit satellites and upper stages. Space agencies in Europe began to develop technical guidelines in the mid-1990s, and
Germany and France have posted
By 2006, the Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO) had developed a number of technical means of debris mitigation (upper stage passivation, propellant reserves for movement to graveyard orbits, etc.) for ISRO launch vehicles and satellites, and was actively contributing to inter-agency debris coordination and the efforts of the UN COPUOS committee.[177]
In 2007, the ISO began preparing an international standard for space-debris mitigation.[178] By 2010, ISO had published "a comprehensive set of space system engineering standards aimed at mitigating space debris. [with primary requirements] defined in the top-level standard, ISO 24113." By 2017, the standards were nearly complete. However, these standards are not binding on any party by ISO or any international jurisdiction. They are simply available for use in voluntary ways. They "can be adopted voluntarily by a spacecraft manufacturer or operator, or brought into effect through a commercial contract between a customer and supplier, or used as the basis for establishing a set of national regulations on space debris mitigation."[172]
The voluntary ISO standard also adopted the "25-year rule" for the "LEO protected region" below 2,000 km (1,200 mi) altitude that has been previously (and still is, as of 2019[update]) used by the US, ESA, and UN mitigation standards, and identifies it as "an upper limit for the amount of time that a space system shall remain in orbit after its mission is completed. Ideally, the time to deorbit should be as short as possible (i.e., much shorter than 25 years)".[172]
Holger Krag of the European Space Agency states that as of 2017 there is no binding international regulatory framework with no progress occurring at the respective UN body in Vienna.[106]
Growth mitigation
As of the 2010s, several technical approaches to the mitigation of the growth of space debris are typically undertaken, yet no comprehensive legal regime or cost assignment structure is in place to reduce space debris in the way that terrestrial pollution has reduced since the mid-20th century.
To avoid excessive creation of artificial space debris, many – but not all – satellites launched to above-low-Earth-orbit are launched initially into
Increasingly, spent upper stages in higher orbits – orbits for which low-delta-v deorbit is not possible, or not planned for – and architectures that support satellite passivation, are passivated at end of life. This removes any internal energy contained in the vehicle at the end of its mission or useful life. While this does not remove the debris of the now derelict rocket stage or satellite itself, it does substantially reduce the likelihood of the spacecraft destructing and creating many smaller pieces of space debris, a phenomenon that was common in many of the early generations of US and Soviet[72] spacecraft.
Upper stage passivation (e.g. of
With a "one-up, one-down" launch-license policy for Earth orbits, launchers would rendezvous with, capture, and de-orbit a derelict satellite from approximately the same orbital plane.[182] Another possibility is the robotic refueling of satellites. Experiments have been flown by NASA,[183] and SpaceX is developing large-scale on-orbit propellant transfer technology.[184]
Another approach to debris mitigation is to explicitly design the mission architecture to leave the rocket second-stage in an
Self-removal
Although the ITU requires geostationary satellites to move to a graveyard orbit at the end of their lives, the selected orbital areas do not sufficiently protect GEO lanes from debris.
The
Passive methods of increasing the orbital decay rate of spacecraft debris have been proposed. Instead of rockets, an electrodynamic tether could be attached to a spacecraft at launch; at the end of its lifetime, the tether would be rolled out to slow the spacecraft.[189] Other proposals include a booster stage with a sail-like attachment[190] and a large, thin, inflatable balloon envelope.[191]
In late December 2022, ESA successfully carried out a demonstration of a breaking sail-based satellite deorbiter, ADEO, which could be used by mitigation measures and is part of ESA's Zero Debris Initiative. Around one year earlier, China also tested a drag sail.[192][193]
External removal
A variety of approaches have been proposed, studied, or had ground subsystems built to use other spacecraft to remove existing space debris.
A consensus of speakers at a meeting in Brussels in October 2012, organized by the Secure World Foundation (a U.S. think tank) and the French International Relations Institute,[194] reported that removal of the largest debris would be required to prevent the risk to spacecraft becoming unacceptable in the foreseeable future (without any addition to the inventory of dead spacecraft in LEO). To date in 2019, removal costs and legal questions about ownership and the authority to remove defunct satellites have stymied national or international action. Current space law retains ownership of all satellites with their original operators, even debris or spacecraft which are defunct or threaten active missions.
Multiple companies made plans in the late 2010s to conduct external removal on their satellites in mid-LEO orbits. For example,
Remotely controlled vehicles
A well-studied solution uses a remotely controlled
A variation of this approach is for the remotely controlled vehicle to rendezvous with debris,
On 7 January 2010 Star, Incorporated reported that it received a contract from the
In December 2019, the European Space Agency awarded the first contract to clean up space debris. The €120 million mission dubbed
Laser methods
The laser broom uses a ground-based laser to ablate the front of the debris, producing a rocket-like thrust that slows the object. With continued application, the debris would fall enough to be influenced by atmospheric drag.[207][208] During the late 1990s, the U.S. Air Force's Project Orion was a laser-broom design.[209] Although a test-bed device was scheduled to launch on a Space Shuttle in 2003, international agreements banning powerful laser testing in orbit limited its use to measurements.[210] The 2003 Space Shuttle Columbia disaster postponed the project and according to Nicholas Johnson, chief scientist and program manager for NASA's Orbital Debris Program Office, "There are lots of little gotchas in the Orion final report. There's a reason why it's been sitting on the shelf for more than a decade."[211]
The momentum of the laser-beam
Nets
On 28 February 2014,
Between 2012 and 2018, the European Space Agency was working on the design of a mission to remove large space debris from orbit using mechanical tentacles or nets. The mission, e.Deorbit, had an objective to remove debris heavier than 4,000 kilograms (8,800 lb) from LEO.[226] Several capture techniques were studied, including a net, a harpoon, and a combination robot arm and clamping mechanism.[227] Funding of the mission was stopped in 2018 in favor of the ClearSpace-1 mission, which is currently under development.
Harpoon
The RemoveDEBRIS mission plan is to test the efficacy of several ADR technologies on mock targets in low Earth orbit. In order to complete its planned experiments the platform is equipped with a net, a harpoon, a laser ranging instrument, a dragsail, and two CubeSats (miniature research satellites).[228] The mission was launched on 2 April 2018.[citation needed]
Recycling space debris
Metal processing technologies to melt space debris and transform it into other useful form factors are developed by CisLunar Industries. Their system uses electromagnetic heating to melt metal and shape it into metal wire, sheet metal, and metal fuel.[229]
Reusing space debris
A propulsion system dubbed the Neumann Drive has been developed in
Barriers to dealing with debris
With the rapid development of the computer and digitalization industries, more countries and companies have engaged in space activities since the turn of the 20th century. The tragedy of the commons is an economic theory referring to a situation where maximizing self-interest through using a shared resource can lead to the resource degradation shared by all.[230] Based on the theory, individuals' rational action in space will lead to an irrational collective result: orbits crowded with debris. As a common-pool resource, the Earth's orbits, especially LEO and GEO that accommodate most satellites, are nonexcludable and rivalrous.[231]
To address the tragedy and ensure space sustainability, many technical approaches have been developed. In terms of governance mechanisms, a top-down centralized one is less suitable to tackle the complex debris problem due to the increasing number of space actors.[232] Instead, a polycentric form of governance developed by Elinor Ostrom may work in space.[233] In the process of promoting the polycentric network, there are some existing barriers needed to be dealt with.
Incomplete data of space debris
As orbital debris is a global problem affecting both spacefaring and non-spacefaring nations, it is necessary to be handled in a worldwide context.
Some private actors are also trying to establish SSA systems. For example, the Space Data Association (SDA) formed in 2009 is a non-governmental entity. It currently consists of 21 global satellite operators and 4 executive members: Eutelsat, Inmarsat, Intelsat, and SES. SDA is a non-profit platform, aiming to avoid radio interference and space collisions through pooling data from operators independently.[234] Researchers suggest that it is essential to establish an international center for exchanging information on space debris because SSA networks do not completely equal debris tracking systems – the former ones focus more on active and threatening objects in space.[236] In terms of debris populations and defunct satellites, few operators have provided data.[236]
In a polycentric governance network, a resource that cannot be holistically monitored is less likely to be well managed.[235] Both insufficient transnational cooperation and information sharing bring resistance to addressing the debris problem. There is a long way to go to build a global network that covers complete data and has strong interconnection and interoperability.
Insufficient participation of private actors
With the commercialization of satellites and space, the private sector is getting more interested in space activities. For example, SpaceX is planning to create a network of around 12,000 small satellites that can transmit high-speed internet to any place in the world.[237] The proportion of commercial spacecraft has increased from 4.6% in the 1980s to 55.6% in the 2010s.[238] Despite the high participation rate of commercial entities, UN COPUOS once deliberately excluded them from having a voice in discussions unless being formally invited by a member state.[232] Ostrom said that the involvement of all relevant stakeholders in the rule-design and implementation process is one of the critical elements of successful governance.[239] The exclusion of private actors largely reduces the effectiveness of the committee's role in making collective-choice arrangements that reflect the interests of all space users.[232]
The limited engagement of private actors slows the process of addressing space debris.[240] Ties between dissimilar stakeholders in the governance network offer access to diverse resources.[241] Different competence among stakeholders can help allocate the tasks more reasonably. In that case, the expertise and experience of private operators are critical to help the world achieve space sustainability.[240] The complementary strengths of different stakeholders enable the governance network to be more adaptable to changes and reach common goals more effectively.[241] In recent years, many private actors have seen commercial opportunities of eliminating space debris. It is estimated that by 2022 the global market for debris monitoring and removal will generate a revenue of around $2.9 billion.[242] For example, Astroscale has contracted with European and Japanese space agencies to develop the capacity of removing orbital debris.[243] Despite that, they are still in small quantity compared to the number of those who have placed satellites in space. Privateer Space, a Hawaiian-based startup company by American engineer Alex Fielding, space environmentalist Moriba Jah, and Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak, announced plans in September 2021 to launch hundreds of satellites into orbit in order to study space debris.[244] However, the company stated it is in "stealth mode" and no such satellites have been launched.[244]
Fortunately, the current space exploration is not completely driven by competition, and there still exists a chance for dialogues and cooperation among all stakeholders in both developed and developing countries, to reach an agreement on tackling space debris and assure an equitable and orderly exploration.[245] Besides private actors, network governance does not necessarily exclude the states from playing a role. Instead, the different functions of states might promote the governance process.[246] To improve the polycentric governance network of space debris, researchers suggest: encourage data-sharing among different national and organizational databases at the political level; develop shared standards for data collection systems to improve interoperability; and enhance the participation of private actors through involving them in national and international discussions.[235]
On other celestial bodies
The issue of space debris has been raised as a mitigation challenge for missions around the Moon with the danger of increasing space debris around it.[247][248]
It is thought that on 4 March 2022, for the first time, human space debris—most likely a spent
In 2022, several elements of space debris were found on Mars: Perseverance's backshell was found on the surface of Jezero Crater,[251] and a piece of a thermal blanket which may have come from the descent stage of the rover.[252][253]
As of February 2024[update], Mars is littered with about seven tons of human-made debris. Most of it consists of crashed and inactive spacecraft as well as discarded components.[254][255]
In popular culture
Until the End of the World (1991) is a French sci-fi drama set under the backdrop of an out-of-control Indian nuclear satellite, predicted to re-enter the atmosphere, threatening vast populated areas of the Earth.[256]
Gravity, a 2013 survival film directed by Alfonso Cuaron, is about a disaster on a space mission caused by Kessler syndrome.[257]
In season 1 of Love, Death & Robots (2019), episode 11, "Helping Hand", revolves around an astronaut being struck by a screw from space debris which knocks her off a satellite in orbit.[258]
Manga and anime Planetes tells a story about a crew of Space Debris station that collects and disposes of space debris.[259]
Beside space debris as an issue of science-fiction stories other stories feature it as a reservoir for the story, as in stories about space junk scavengers like Space Sweepers (2021), or as a result or environment of the story.
See also
- Category:Derelict satellites
- Interplanetary contamination
- Liability Convention
- List of large reentering space debris
- List of space debris producing events
- Long Duration Exposure Facility
- Near-Earth object
- Orbital Debris Co-ordination Working Group
- Project West Ford
- Satellite warfare
- Solar Maximum Mission
- Spacecraft cemetery
- Space domain awareness
- Space sustainability
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Further reading
- "What is Orbital Debris?", Center for Orbital and Reentry Debris Studies, Aerospace Corporation
- Committee for the Assessment of NASA's Orbital Debris Programs (2011). Limiting Future Collision Risk to Spacecraft: An Assessment of NASA's Meteoroid and Orbital Debris Programs. Washington, D.C.: ISBN 978-0-309-21974-7.
- Klotz, Irene (1 September 2011). "Space junk reaching 'tipping point,' report warns". Reuters. Retrieved 2 September 2011. News item summarizing the above report
- Steven A. Hildreth and Allison Arnold. Threats to U.S. National Security Interests in Space: Orbital Debris Mitigation and Removal. Washington, D.C.: Congressional Research Service, 8 January 2014.
- David Leonard, "The Clutter Above", Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, July/August 2005.
- Patrick McDaniel, "A Methodology for Estimating the Uncertainty in the Predicted Annual Risk to Orbiting Spacecraft from Current or Predicted Space Debris Population". National Defense University, 1997.
- "Interagency Report on Orbital Debris, 1995", National Science and Technology Council, November 1995.
- Nickolay Smirnov, Space Debris: Hazard Evaluation and Mitigation. Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press, 2002, ISBN 0-415-27907-0.
- Richard Talcott, "How We Junked Up Outer Space", Astronomy, Volume 36, Issue 6 (June 2008), pp. 40–43.
- "Technical report on space debris, 1999", United Nations, 2006. ISBN 92-1-100813-1.
- Robin Biesbroek (2015). Active Debris Removal in Space: How to Clean the Earth's Environment from Space Debris. CreateSpace. ISBN 978-1-5085-2918-7.
- Khatchadourian, Raffi, "The Trash Nebula: Millions of man-made artifacts are circling Earth. Will one of them cause a disaster?", 28 September 2020, pp. 44–52, 54–55. "By one estimate, there are a hundred million bits of debris that are a millimetre in size, a hundred million as small as a micron. We live in a corona of trash. [T]he problem, if ignored, could destroy all the satellites that orbit near the Earth – a loss that would be more acutely felt as humanity increasingly relied on space." (p. 47.)
External links
- Sorting Through Our Space Junk: Space Junk Infographic
- Sativew – Tracking Space Junk in real time
- NASA Orbital Debris Program Office
- SOCRATES: A free daily service predicting close encounters on orbit between satellites and debris orbiting Earth
- Space Junk Astronomy Cast episode No. 82 (2008?), includes full transcript