2023 Selby and Ainsty by-election

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2023 Selby and Ainsty by-election
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  First party Second party Third party
 
GRN
Candidate Keir Mather Claire Holmes Arnold Warneken
Party Labour Conservative Green
Popular vote 16,456 12,295 1,838
Percentage 46.0% 34.3% 5.1%
Swing Increase21.4
pp
 Decrease26.0
pp
 Increase1.9
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MP before election

Nigel Adams
Conservative

Elected MP

Keir Mather
Labour

A by-election was held in the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Selby and Ainsty in North Yorkshire on 20 July 2023, following the announcement on 10 June that the incumbent Conservative Party member of Parliament (MP), Nigel Adams, was standing down from Parliament with immediate effect.[1] Adams had previously announced his intention to stand down as an MP at the next general election, with the party having selected a candidate to succeed him the previous day.[2] Adams formally confirmed his resignation on 12 June.[3]

Keir Mather of the Labour Party won the seat, setting a record for the largest majority ever overturned by the party in a by-election at the time, even as the Labour candidate in the much more marginal Uxbridge and South Ruislip failed to win a by-election held there on the same day.[4] At the time, this was the second-largest swing to Labour in a by-election since 1945 (behind only Dudley West in 1994), but it was then exceeded in the Tamworth by-election held that October and now stands as the third-largest; the Mid Bedfordshire by-election held the same day would also see Labour overturn a larger majority than in Selby.[5][6]

Background

Ainsty of York and villages such as Camblesforth and Eggborough. Since boundary changes in advance of the 2010 election, Selby and Ainsty had been considered a "traditional Tory safe seat".[8]

Incumbent MP Nigel Adams had been a close ally of former Prime Minister Boris Johnson.[9] He had served as the constituency's MP since its creation in 2010 and had most recently defended it in 2019 with a majority of just over 20,000 votes relative to his nearest competitor. He resigned as an MP one day after Johnson did, an action which itself triggered a by-election in Uxbridge and South Ruislip; Adams had previously rejected the idea he would stand down as an MP early. He had been expected to receive a peerage as part of Boris Johnson's resignation honours, but had been removed from the final list by the House of Lords Appointments Commission (HOLAC).[2][10][11]

The Sunday Times reported that, on 2 June 2023, Johnson met the incumbent Conservative Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak, and agreed to campaign for him if Sunak approved his honours list.[12] A source close to Sunak denied any deal was agreed, but that Sunak said he would not interfere in the process. The list of proposed peerages went to the commission, which rejected several names, presumed to include Dorries and Adams, as they were serving MPs who were not planning to stand down imminently. This led to a row about whether arrangements could be made for Adams and the others.[13] Johnson wanted Sunak to overrule the HOLAC or promise to give Adams, Dorries and Alok Sharma peerages later, but Sunak refused.[14]

The Uxbridge and South Ruislip and Somerton and Frome by-elections were held on the same day.

Candidate selection

Lawyer Claire Holmes was selected as the Conservative candidate on 18 June.[15] Michael Naughton, a Conservative Party candidate in the 2014 and 2019 European Parliament elections,[16] had previously been selected as the Conservatives' PPC for the seat on 9 June,[2] defeating Zak Khan and Andrew Lee for the nomination; journalist Sebastian Payne had also applied but did not make the shortlist.[16] It subsequently emerged that Naughton had actually been selected for the new Selby constituency, the de facto successor seat to Selby and Ainsty for the next general election following boundary changes, and the selection of Naughton as the candidate for the by-election had therefore been run on incorrect boundaries, excluding party members that resided inside Selby and Ainsty, but outside of the future Selby constituency.[17] The following day, Naughton stood down as the party's PPC for the redefined Selby seat, due to unrelated family matters.[15]

On 15 June the Labour Party announced 25-year-old Keir Mather, who most recently worked at the Confederation of British Industry,[15] as their candidate.[18]

On 22 June the Liberal Democrats announced their candidate as Matt Walker, who works as a National Health Service manager and serves as a councillor on North Yorkshire Council.[19]

On 14 June the Conservatives lost their majority on North Yorkshire Council following the resignation of one of their councillors.[20] Mike Jordan, who represents the Camblesforth & Carlton ward in the Selby area, cited concerns about the party nationally for his reason for leaving the party.[21] Jordan rejoined his old party, the Yorkshire Party, and was announced as the party's candidate in the by-election.[22][23] However, Jordan is listed on the Statement of Persons Nominated with no party affiliation.

Arnold Warneken, a local councillor for Ouseburn ward, was selected for the Green Party on 11 June 2023. He had contested the seat for the party in the 2019 election.[24]

David Kent stood for Reform UK[22] while Guy Phoenix stood for the Heritage Party.[25]

Campaign

Candidate Holmes (front, centre left) and Prime Minister Sunak (front, centre right) campaigning in Selby and Ainsty

On 13 June, Labour Party National Campaign Coordinator Shabana Mahmood ruled out a Lib–Lab pact.[26] Liberal Democrat leader Ed Davey had done the same on 10 June.[27]

On 8 July, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak campaigned with the Conservative candidate Claire Holmes in Selby and Ainsty.[28]

Polling

An opinion poll conducted by J.L. Partners and commissioned by pressure group 38 Degrees, published on 6 July, found that Labour held a twelve-point lead over the Conservatives in the seat.[29] Labour ultimately won the seat with a lead of 11.6 points over the Conservative candidate, a similar margin to that predicted by the poll.

Dates
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample
size 		Con Lab Lib Dems Yorkshire Green Reform Others Lead
20 Jul 2023 2023 by-election — 34.3% 46.0% 3.3% 4.2% 5.1% 3.7% 3.5% 11.7
26 Jun – 4 Jul 2023 JL Partners 38 Degrees 502 29% 41% 6% 4% 6% 8% 6% 12
12 Dec 2019 2019 general election – 60.3% 24.6% 8.6% 3.4% 3.2% – – 35.7

Results

Bar chart of the election result.

Thirteen candidates sought election. The full list was announced on 23 June 2023.

2023 Selby and Ainsty by-election[30][31]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Keir Mather 16,456 46.0 +21.4
Conservative Claire Holmes 12,295 34.3 −26.0
Green Arnold Warneken 1,838 5.1 +1.9
[a] Mike Jordan 1,503 4.2 +0.8
Reform UK Dave Kent 1,332 3.7 New
Liberal Democrats Matt Walker 1,188 3.3 −5.3
Independent Nick Palmer 342 1.0 New
SDP John Waterstone 314 0.9 New
Monster Raving Loony Sir Archibald Stanton 172 0.5 New
Heritage Guy Phoenix 162 0.5 New
[b] Andrew Gray 99 0.3 New
Independent Tyler Wilson-Kerr 67 0.2 New
Climate Luke Wellock 39 0.1 New
Rejected ballots 69 0.2
Registered electors 80,150
Majority 4,161 11.7 N/A
Turnout 35,876 44.8 Decrease 27.2
Labour gain from Conservative Swing +23.7

Previous result

General election 2019: Selby and Ainsty[32]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Nigel Adams 33,995 60.3 +1.6
Labour Malik Rofidi 13,858 24.6 −9.5
Liberal Democrats Katharine Macy 4,842 8.6 +4.5
Yorkshire Mike Jordan 1,900 3.4 New
Green Arnold Warneken 1,823 3.2 New
Majority 20,137 35.7 +10.1
Turnout 56,418 71.7 −2.4
Conservative hold Swing +5.5

Notes

  1. ^ Jordan left the optional Description field blank on the registration form, but stood for the Yorkshire Party.
  2. ^ Gray, an independent candidate, left the optional Description field blank on the registration form.

References

  1. ^ Adams, Nigel [@nadams] (10 June 2023). "Yesterday, Selby Conservatives selected an excellent new parliamentary candidate. I've today informed the chief whip that I will be standing down as a Member of Parliament with immediate effect" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  2. ^ a b c Rychlikova, Megi (10 June 2023). "Tory Michael Naughton bids to succeed Nigel Adams as Selby MP". York Press. Retrieved 10 June 2023.
  3. ^ "Nigel Adams formally resigns as Conservative MP". Sky News. Retrieved 12 June 2023.
  4. ^ "Labour Pull Off Historic Victory In Selby And Ainsty By-Election". HuffPost UK. 21 July 2023. Retrieved 21 July 2023.
  5. ^ "Labour wins Tamworth by-election with second-biggest swing since 1945". Sky News. 20 October 2023. Retrieved 20 October 2023.
  6. ^ Blewett, Sam (20 October 2023). "Labour wins Mid Bedfordshire in historic by-election result". The Independent. Retrieved 20 October 2023.
  7. ^ "Final farewell as Selby councillors hold last ever meeting". Yahoo News. 23 March 2023. Retrieved 10 June 2023.
  8. ^ Steerpike (10 June 2023). "Third by-election looms for Sunak after Johnsonite exodus". The Spectator. Retrieved 10 June 2023.
  9. ^ "LIVE – Tories to face third by-election as Johnson ally resigns". BBC News. 10 June 2023. Retrieved 10 June 2023.
  10. ^ "Boris Johnson ally Nigel Adams to stand down as MP with 'immediate effect' triggering third by-election". Sky News. 10 June 2023. Retrieved 10 June 2023.
  11. ^ Swinford, Steven [@Steven_Swinford] (10 June 2023). "Nigel Adams, a close ally of Boris Johnson, stands down as MP for Selby & Ainsty with immediate effect. He was nominated for peerage by Johnson but wasn't on final list that came back from Holac. He recently said the idea he could stand down early was 'utter bollock'" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  12. ^ Malnick, Edward (10 June 2023). "Boris Johnson pleaded with Rishi Sunak to approve his resignation honours". The Telegraph. Retrieved 11 June 2023.
  13. ^ Daly, Patrick (11 June 2023). "Sunak did not remove names from Johnson's peerages list, insists minister". Independent. Retrieved 10 June 2023.
  14. ^ Sparrow, Andrew (12 June 2023). "Boris Johnson accuses Rishi Sunak of 'talking rubbish' about his resignation honours list – UK politics live". Retrieved 12 June 2023.
  15. ^ a b c Ambrose, Tom (18 June 2023). "Tories pick local councillor for Selby and Ainsty seat after Johnson ally quits". The Guardian. Retrieved 19 June 2023.
  16. ^ a b Atkinson, William (10 June 2023). "Naughton selected in Selby in a "very unusual" contest". Conservative Home. Retrieved 10 June 2023.
  17. ^ Atkinson, William (10 June 2023). "Naughton selected in Selby in a "very unusual" contest". ConservativeHome. Retrieved 10 June 2023. Michael Naughton has been selected as the prospective Conservative candidate for the new seat of Selby. This contains 73 per cent of the previous Selby and Ainsty constituency, and 21 per cent of Elmet and Rothwell. Both were won by the Conservatives in 2019.
  18. ^ "Selby and Ainsty by-election: Labour names candidate". BBC News. 15 June 2023. Retrieved 15 June 2023.
  19. ^ "Selby and Ainsty by-election: Lib Dems name candidate". BBC News. 22 June 2023. Retrieved 22 June 2023.
  20. ^ Plummer, John (12 June 2023). "Conservatives lose majority on North Yorkshire Council". The Stray Ferret. Retrieved 15 June 2023.
  21. ^ "North Yorkshire: Conservatives lose majority after councillor quits". BBC News. 13 June 2023. Retrieved 15 June 2023.
  22. ^
    Yorkshire Post
    . Retrieved 15 June 2023.
  23. ^ "Mike Jordan selected as candidate for Selby and Ainsty by-election". Yorkshire Party. 1 July 2023. Retrieved 1 July 2023.
  24. ^ "Greens name candidate to contest Selby by-election". York Press. 11 June 2023. Retrieved 11 June 2023.
  25. ^ "Selby and Ainsty by-election: Britain's "on wrong track"". York Press. 27 June 2023. Retrieved 29 June 2023.
  26. ^ Chaplain, Chloe; Gye, Hugo (13 June 2023). "Labour rules out Lib Dem pact and aims to win three by-elections – including Dorries's old seat". The Independent. Retrieved 15 June 2023.
  27. ^ Adu, Aletha (10 June 2023). "Lib Dems rule out tactical voting pact with Labour in byelections". The Guardian. Retrieved 15 June 2023.
  28. ^ Greenwood, Darren (8 July 2023). "Rishi Sunak adds support to Claire Holmes with a visit to Selby today". yorkpress.co.uk. Archived from the original on 19 August 2023.
  29. ^ "Tories could be set for heavy defeat in Selby by-election, poll suggests". Yorkshire Post. 7 July 2023. Retrieved 8 July 2023.
  30. ^ "Statement of Persons Nominated" (PDF). 23 June 2023. Retrieved 23 June 2023.
  31. ^ Council, North Yorkshire. "Notice of Results" (PDF). www.northyorks.gov.uk. Retrieved 21 July 2023.
  32. ^ "Selby & Ainsty Parliamentary constituency". BBC News. BBC. Retrieved 10 June 2023.
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