2023 Uxbridge and South Ruislip by-election

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2023 Uxbridge and South Ruislip by-election
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pp
)
  First party Second party
 
Lab
Candidate Steve Tuckwell Danny Beales
Party Conservative Labour
Popular vote 13,965 13,470
Percentage 45.2% 43.6%
Swing Decrease7.4
pp
 Increase6.0
pp
MP before election

Boris Johnson
Conservative

Elected MP

Steve Tuckwell
Conservative

A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Uxbridge and South Ruislip was held on 20 July 2023, following the resignation of former Prime Minister Boris Johnson as its member of Parliament (MP) on 12 June.

The Conservative Party's candidate, Steve Tuckwell, held the seat with a reduced majority of 495 votes. The result was considered an upset, as Labour had targeted the seat heavily; a large backlash against Johnson was expected in the constituency in the wake of the Partygate affair. Tuckwell attributed his victory to the unpopularity of London's Ultra Low Emission Zone scheme and its proposed expansion into the Borough of Hillingdon.[1]

Background

Uxbridge and South Ruislip is a constituency in West London, part of the suburban sprawl of Greater London.[2] Suburbs in the constituency include Uxbridge, South Ruislip, Eastcote, Hillingdon and Yiewsley.

Johnson was first elected as an MP in 2001 for the seat of Henley. After leaving Parliament to focus on being Mayor of London, an office to which he was elected in 2008, he was elected as the MP for Uxbridge and South Ruislip in 2015. In 2019, he became leader of the Conservative Party and Prime Minister when he won the leadership election touched off by the resignation of Theresa May. However, he stood down as Prime Minister and party leader in July 2022 following a series of scandals and by-election defeats which culminated in the mass resignation of much of his cabinet. In the subsequent leadership election, Liz Truss succeeded Johnson as Prime Minister, only to resign herself and be succeeded in October by Rishi Sunak.

Johnson announced his pending resignation from Parliament in response to an investigation by the Commons Privileges Committee that was launched into whether he had knowingly misled Parliament in comments about Partygate. He was highly critical of the report, which recommended a suspension from Parliament that would have been long enough to trigger a recall petition that, if successful, would have forced a by-election.[3]

His resignation took effect on 12 June. The writs for the by-election were moved, in Parliament, by Chief Whip

Hillingdon Council later confirmed that the by-election would take place on 20 July.[5]

On the same day, the Selby and Ainsty and Somerton and Frome by-elections were held.

Campaign

Conservative candidate Steve Tuckwell, right, campaigning for the by-election with Prime Minister Rishi Sunak

Labour began campaigning the day after Johnson's resignation was announced, with candidate Danny Beales joined by Shadow Work and Pensions Secretary Jonathan Ashworth and Labour's campaign co-ordinator Shabana Mahmood[6] speaking to press with assembled supporters before canvassing.[7] On 10 June, Sir Ed Davey, the leader of the Liberal Democrats, ruled out a Lib–Lab pact,[8] as did Mahmood on 13 June.[9]

At a hustings on 4 July, Beales said that it was "not the right time" to expand London's Ultra Low Emission Zone (ULEZ) into Hillingdon.[10] Beales had previously supported the policy earlier in the campaign.[11]

Weeks before the by-election, London Mayor Sadiq Khan reversed his decision to close Uxbridge police station, in a move described by political opponents as a "cynical" attempt to influence voters. The closure of the station was long opposed by the Conservative-run council and the previous MP.[12] The London Conservatives referred the mayor to the watchdog, Greater London Assembly's monitoring officer.[13] Both the Conservatives and the Labour candidate claimed credit for the reversal of the closure.[14]

Polling

One poll of the constituency was conducted in the days shortly before Boris Johnson's resignation by Lord Ashcroft Polls. The poll was criticised by a journalist in The New Statesman for sampling issues, and allegedly under-representing the young.[15] National polls suggested Labour could win the seat, but that it would be a close race against the Conservatives.[7] A poll by JL Partners after Johnson's resignation showed Labour in the lead, but within its margin of error.[16]

Dates
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample
size 		Con Lab
Lib Dems
 Green Reform Reclaim Others Lead
20 Jul 2023 2023 by-election — 45.2% 43.6% 1.7% 2.9% – 2.3% 4.4% 1.6
26 Jun – 4 Jul 2023 JL Partners 38 Degrees 500 33% 41% 6% 4% – 5% 10% 8
9 Jun 2023 Boris Johnson resigns as an MP triggering a by-election
18 May – 2 Jun 2023 Lord Ashcroft Polls N/A 936 50%[a] 33% 6% 5% 3% – 4% 17
12 Dec 2019 2019 general election – 52.6% 37.6% 6.3% 2.2% – – 1.3% 15.0

Results

Seventeen candidates were standing in this by-election. The full list was announced on 23 June 2023.

Bar chart of the election result.
2023 Uxbridge and South Ruislip by-election[17][18]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Steve Tuckwell 13,965 45.2 Decrease7.4
Labour Danny Beales 13,470 43.6 Increase6.0
Green Sarah Green 893 2.9 Increase0.7
Reclaim Laurence Fox 714 2.3 New
Liberal Democrats Blaise Baquiche 526 1.7 Decrease4.6
SDP Steve Gardner 248 0.8 New
Independent Kingsley Hamilton Anti-Ulez[b] 208 0.7 New
Count Binface Count Binface 190 0.6 Increase0.5
Independent No-Ulez Leo Phaure[b] 186 0.6 New
Rejoin EU
 Richard Hewison 105 0.3 New
Let London Live
 Piers Corbyn 101 0.3 New
Independent Cameron Bell 91 0.3 New
CPA Enomfon Ntefon 78 0.3 New
UKIP Rebecca Jane 61 0.2 Decrease0.4
Climate Ed Gemmell 49 0.2 New
Monster Raving Loony Howling Laud Hope 32 0.1 Decrease0.2
Independent 77 Joseph[c] 8 0.0 New
Majority 495 1.6 Decrease13.4
Turnout 30,925 46.1 Decrease22.4
Rejected ballots 77
Registered electors 67,067
Conservative
hold 		Swing Decrease6.7

Aftermath

Against expectations, Labour failed to take the seat, despite winning the Selby and Ainsty by-election on the same day with a much larger swing. Many interpreted the result as being about opposition to the ULEZ expansion.[22][23][24] Much of Steve Tuckwell's campaign literature did not mention Boris Johnson at all, while barely mentioning either the Conservative Party or Rishi Sunak.[25] Both Labour's leader, Keir Starmer, and deputy leader, Angela Rayner, blamed opposition to ULEZ, with Starmer suggesting the Labour London Mayor Sadiq Khan should rethink the policy.[26][27] Khan defended the policy[28] and Starmer soon sought to heal the rift.[29] The defeated Labour candidate, Beales, also criticised the ULEZ policy.[30] openDemocracy noted that despite strong negative feeling towards high-ranking politicians like Sunak, Starmer, and Khan, Tuckwell won more than half as many votes as Johnson had won in 2019.[25]

The elected chair of Uxbridge and South Ruislip Constituency Labour Party resigned his position and left the party on the day after the election, praising former leader Jeremy Corbyn.[31]

Previous result

General election 2019: Uxbridge and South Ruislip[32][33]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Boris Johnson 25,351 52.6 Increase1.8
Labour Ali Milani 18,141 37.6 Decrease2.4
Liberal Democrats Joanne Humphreys 3,026 6.3 Increase2.4
Green Mark Keir 1,090 2.2 Increase0.3
UKIP Geoffrey Courtenay 283 0.6 Decrease2.8
Monster Raving Loony Lord Buckethead 125 0.3 New
Independent Count Binface 69 0.1 New
Independent Alfie Utting 44 0.1 New
[d] Yace "Interplanetary Time Lord" Yogenstein 23 0.0 New
Independent Norma Burke 22 0.0 New
[d] Bobby Smith 8 0.0 New
[d] William Tobin 5 0.0 New
Majority 7,210 15.0 Increase4.2
Turnout 48,187 68.5 Increase1.7
Registered electors 70,369
Conservative hold Swing Increase2.1

Notes

  1. ^ Boris Johnson as the Conservative candidate
  2. ^ a b Names "Anti-Ulez"[19] and "No-Ulez"[20] indicate opposition to London's Ultra Low Emission Zone (ULEZ).
  3. Pharaoh's dream interpreted by Joseph in the Book of Genesis.[21]
  4. ^
    independent candidate left the optional Description field blank on the "Statement of Persons Nominated" (PDF). London Borough of Hillingdon. Archived from the original
    (PDF) on 15 November 2019.

References

  1. ^ "2023 by-elections: Conservatives hold Boris Johnson's old seat of Uxbridge and South Ruislip". Sky News. Retrieved 21 July 2023.
  2. ^ "BBC NEWS - VOTE 2001 - RESULTS & CONSTITUENCIES - Uxbridge". news.bbc.co.uk. Retrieved 10 June 2023.
  3. ^ "Boris Johnson resigns: Ex-PM quits Parliament over Partygate report". BBC News. 9 June 2023. Retrieved 9 June 2023.
  4. ^ Rufo, Yasmin (14 June 2023). "Boris Johnson: By-election confirmed for former constituency". BBC News. Retrieved 14 June 2023.
  5. ^ Salisbury, Josh (15 June 2023). "By-election date confirmed for Boris Johnson's London constituency". Evening Standard. Retrieved 15 June 2023.
  6. ^ Patrick, Holly (10 June 2023). "Labour candidate begins campaign for Boris Johnson's seat after ex-PM resigns as MP". The Independent. Retrieved 14 June 2023.
  7. ^ a b Topping, Alexandra (12 June 2023). "Labour's candidate in Uxbridge 'not taking anything for granted'". The Guardian. Retrieved 14 June 2023.
  8. ^ Adu, Aletha (10 June 2023). "Lib Dems rule out tactical voting pact with Labour in byelections". The Guardian. Retrieved 15 June 2023.
  9. ^ Gye, Chloe Chaplain, Hugo (13 June 2023). "Labour rules out Lib Dem pact and aims to win three by-elections - including Dorries's old seat". The Independent. Retrieved 15 June 2023.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)
  10. ^ Rogers, Alexandra (4 July 2023). "Labour split as Uxbridge by-election candidate speaks out against London mayor's ULEZ expansion". Sky News. Retrieved 5 July 2023.
  11. ^ 13 July 2023. "A parting gift for Danny Beales? Tory motion demands call on ULEZ". Camden New Journal.
  12. ^ Cafe, Rebecca (3 July 2023). "Uxbridge: Sadiq Khan saves police station weeks before by-election". BBC.
  13. ^ Penna, Dominic and Gibbons, Amy (3 July 2023). "Tories refer Sadiq Khan to watchdog over decision to save police station amid by-election battle". The Telegraph.
  14. ^ 3 July 2023. "Uxbridge by-election: rivals claim credit for saving police station". Hillingdon Times.
  15. ^ Walker, Ben (8 June 2023). "Will Boris Johnson really win in Uxbridge?". State of the Nation. Retrieved 14 June 2023.
  16. ^ Cecil, Nicholas (7 July 2023). "Labour ahead in Uxbridge and Selby, polls find in by-elections double blow for Sunak". Evening Standard. Retrieved 7 July 2023.
  17. ^ "Commons Briefing Paper 9225. By-elections in the 2019 Parliament" (PDF). London: House of Commons Library. 20 October 2023. Retrieved 3 December 2023.
  18. ^ "Uxbridge and South Ruislip by-election 2023 results". Hillingdon Council. Archived from the original on 16 December 2023. Retrieved 21 July 2023.
  19. ^ "Candidate Kingsley Hamilton". Getty Images. Retrieved 15 July 2023.
  20. ^ "Candidate Leo Phaure". Getty Images. Retrieved 15 July 2023.
  21. ^ "Joseph77". Joseph77. Retrieved 15 July 2023.
  22. ^ "Big defeats for Tories but party holds on to Uxbridge". BBC News. 21 July 2023.
  23. ^ Quach, Georgina; Bush, Stephen (21 July 2023). "Relying on wedge issues like Ulez won't save Tories from wipeout". Financial Times.
  24. ^ "Residents of Uxbridge react to narrow Tory by-election victory". BBC News. 21 July 2023.
  25. ^ a b Ramsay, Adam; Thévoz, Seth (21 July 2023). "The Tories' lesson from Uxbridge: pretend not to be the Tories". openDemocracy.
  26. ^ "Labour's Uxbridge defeat sparks blame game: 'We've got a lot to think about'". Sky News.
  27. ^ Ferguson, Donna; Thomas, Tobi (22 July 2023). "Starmer says Labour doing something 'very wrong' after Ulez-linked Uxbridge loss". The Guardian.
  28. ^ "Labour Civil War Erupts As Sadiq Khan Doubles Down On ULEZ Despite Uxbridge Defeat". Yahoo Finance. 21 July 2023.
  29. ^ Waugh, Chloe Chaplain, Jane Merrick, Paul (21 July 2023). "Starmer moves to heal rift with Khan after Uxbridge by-election loss". inews.co.uk.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)
  30. ^ "Exclusive: Defeated Labour Candidate Launches Bitter Attack On Sadiq Khan's ULEZ Expansion". HuffPost UK. 22 July 2023.
  31. ^ Belger, Tom (21 July 2023). "Uxbridge and South Ruislip CLP chair quits party after defeat, praising Corbyn". LabourList | Latest UK Labour Party news, analysis and comment.
  32. ^ "Uxbridge & Ruislip South parliamentary constituency". BBC News.
  33. ^ "Commons Briefing Paper 8749. General Election 2019: results and analysis" (PDF). London: House of Commons Library. 28 January 2020. Archived (PDF) from the original on 18 November 2021. Retrieved 9 June 2023.
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