Great Recession in Russia
This article needs to be updated.(May 2009) |
The
In late 2008 during the onset of the crisis, Russian markets plummeted and more than $1 trillion had been wiped off the value of Russia's shares,
As the crisis progressed, Reuters and the Financial Times speculated that the crisis would be used to increase the Kremlin's control over key strategic assets in a reverse of the "loans for shares" sales of the 1990s, when the state sold off major assets to the oligarchs in return for loans.[4] In contrast to this earlier speculation, in September 2009 the Russian government announced plans to sell state energy and transport holdings in order to help plug the budget deficit and to help improve the nation's aging infrastructure. The state earmarked about 5,500 enterprises for divestment and planned to sell shares in companies that were already publicly traded, including Rosneft, the country's biggest oil producer.[5]
From July 2008 – January 2009, Russia's foreign exchange reserves (FXR) fell by $210 billion from their peak to $386 billion as the central bank adopted a policy of gradual devaluation to combat the sharp devaluation of the ruble. The ruble weakened 35% against the dollar from the onset of the crisis in August to January 2009.[6] As the ruble stabilized in January the reserves began to steadily grow again throughout 2009, reaching a year-long high of $452 billion by year's-end.[7][8]
Russia's economy emerged from recession in the third quarter of 2009 after two-quarters of record negative growth.
Background
Russia is a major exporter of commodities such as oil and metals, so its economy had been hit hard[15] by the decline in the price of many commodities. The Russian stock market declined significantly. Foreign investors had pulled billions of dollars out of Russia on concerns over escalating geopolitical tensions with the West following the military conflict between Georgia and Russia,[citation needed] as well as concerns about state interference in the economy.[16] Those concerns were underscored in July by Prime Minister Vladimir Putin's criticism of steel company Mechel collapsing the company's stock.[17][18][19][20] By September 2008, the RTS stock index plunged almost 54%, making it one of the worst performing markets in the world.[21] Russian involvement in the US subprime mortgage crisis contributed to the volatility in Russia's financial system. The Russian Central Bank owned US$100 Billion of mortgage-backed securities of the two American mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac that were taken over by the US government. This investment appeared to be bound for write-off.[22]
Many analysts, including
According to the
Financial markets
Stock markets
On 24 July 2008, Mechel's stock plunged by almost 38 percent after Russia's Prime Minister Vladimir Putin criticized its CEO Igor Zyuzin, and accused the company of selling resources to Russia at higher prices than those charged to foreign countries. The comments, which raised fears of another attack similar to that made on Yukos in 2004, contrasted sharply with previous efforts by President Dmitry Medvedev to improve Russia's reputation as an investor-friendly country.[27] On the following day, Mechel issued a contrite statement promising full cooperation with federal authorities,[27] while share values rebounded by nearly 15 percent. 28 July presidential aide Arkady Dvorkovich then sought to restore calm, declaring that all parties would "act in a civilized way", and confirming that Mechel was cooperating with antitrust authorities.[28] Just hours later, however, Putin announced that Mechel had been avoiding taxes, by using foreign subsidiaries to sell its products internationally. His renewed attack caused share prices to tumble once more—this time by almost 33 percent.[29]
On 16 September Russia's most liquid stock exchange
The crisis continued on 18 September, as trading was suspended for the third day in succession on Russia's two main stock exchanges amidst fear of financial collapse. News agencies are quoting Russia's finance minister Alexei Kudrin as saying trading on Russian exchanges will not resume until 19 September 2008.
On 6 October the MICEX and RTS crashed by 18.6% and 19.1% respectively. The losses forced the Federal Financial Markets Service to suspend the stocks three times.[citation needed] Trading on both exchanges was suspended on the next day; Russian companies have augmented in price at London LSE.[36] On 8 October the MICEX and RTS plunged 14.4% and 11.3% respectively, trading on the markets was halted until 10 October, respectively.[37][38] However, on 9 October MICEX trading resumed ahead of schedule, and the stock market rose 14.7%.[39] On the next day the regulator, wary of crises in American and Asian markets, decided not to open trading at all.[40]
Money markets
The crisis in money markets was imminent since spring, when Central Bank of Russia warned the public of a gradual contraction in bank lending due to unfolding world liquidity crisis. However, the regulator preferred to combat inflation, raising the refinancing rate and bank reserve contributions. 1 September hike in reserve rate alone withdrew nearly 100 billion roubles from the money market.[41] The raise coincided with a seasonal peak in tax payments and left the banking system in a worse state of liquidity than that of August 1998.[41] A subsequent drop in rouble-to-dollar exchange rate and dollar-denominated prices of Russian corporate securities forced investors to crowd out, worsening the positive feedback loop. The interbank money market that traditionally relied on Russian corporate stock as a collateral for the repurchase agreements, immediately imploded in what was called "a crisis of trust" or even "elimination of trust":[42] when the borrowers defaulted on loans, leaving lenders with impaired collateral, other banks stopped lending as a precaution.[41]
Money market crunch passed its first lowest mark 15–17 September. 17 September the government lent the country's three biggest banks, Sberbank, VTB Bank and Gazprombank, 1.13 trillion rubles (US$44 billion) for at least three months to boost liquidity;[43] the Central Bank lowered the reserve requirement.[44] This was followed 24 September by Central Bank loans to keep the current accounts afloat and prevent a bank run. The regulators also raised the cap for deposit insurance from 400 to 700 thousand roubles (equivalent to 25 thousand dollars).[45] These actions served their short-term purpose but failed to revitalize the money market: no bank was willing to lend for longer than overnight.[41]
17 November MosPrime interbank interest rate on rouble loans reached a record high of 22.67%, indicating another shortage of liquid funds as the bank clients transferred funds overseas or paid taxes due. Rates on six-month US dollar forward contracts fluctuated at 40–60%, short-term currency swaps averaged around 80% as the banks anticipated further drop in exchange rates.[46]
Bank failures
On 15 September the KIT Finance brokerage failed to pay off its debt, signalling problems in Russia's financial sector.[47][48] On 8 October the Russian Railways and Alrosa agreed to acquire a 90% stake in KIT Finance.
In the beginning of October
Government intervention
Refinancing foreign capital
On 18 September,
On 29 September,
On 23 October,
By 13 November, Russian government spending to quench the recession reached 222 billion US dollars, or 13.9% of its GDP;[54] in November the state was spending its reserves at an average 22 billion dollars a week.[55]
On 8 December 2008, Standard & Poor's additionally lowered Russia's foreign currency credit ratings to BBB (long term) and A-3. It also lowered Russia's Transfer and Convertibility (T&C) assessment to BBB and the long-term local currency assessment to BBB+. On the other hand, the short-term credit rating in local currency was left intact as A-2. The lowering of credit ratings was caused by the sharp decline of reserves and investment flow.[56][57] Standard & Poor's also launched a downward revision of Russian municipal and corporate bond ratings.[58]
Tax and state budget policy
20 November
Earlier in November, Kudrin announced that the state has accepted the fact of a long-term drop in oil prices and that the existing state budget plans will hold unchanged if the oil prices stabilize on 50 dollars per barrel mark.[62] Even with tax breaks effective, Kudrin estimated that the 2009 state budget will break even or, in worst case, bear no more than 1% deficit.[59][61] The deficit will be covered by Stabilisation Fund, without resorting to borrowing.[59]
In December the government lifted import tariffs on industrial equipment imported by metallurgy, construction, forestry and textile industry,[63] at the same time enforcing increased tariffs on imported cars.
Corporate governance
International cooperation
Russia has agreed to co-finance
Russian economic crisis
At the end of November 2008, The Russian economy as a whole was not in a state of recession. The government forecast for 2009 stood at a 6.7% annual growth rate while a November 2008 World Bank report projected 3% growth for 2009,[55] However, a revised projection issued 30 March 2009 by the World Bank projects a 4.5% decrease for 2009 with unemployment projected to rise to 12% by the end of 2009. The World Bank report expressed concern about the condition of the poor and recommended increases in social support payments such as unemployment payments and child support payments. The report projected a slight rise in the average price of oil during 2010, up to $53 a barrel from the projected average of $45 for 2009.[70]
In the middle of December 2008 Russian officials confirmed that possibility of a recession was inevitable. "Russia is headed for a recession", the country's deputy economy minister, Andrei Klepach, has said. Asked whether Russia would have a recession, he said: "It's started already. I'm afraid it will not be over in the next two-quarters. ... A major drop began in October and there will also be drops in November–December," he said, according to official reports. Recessions are normally declared after two-quarters of negative growth. He also said that full-year economic growth for 2008 would be lower than the 6.8% previously forecast.[71]
Steel industry
Russian steel industry is dependent on foreign markets and domestic construction and automobile industries. Crisis in the industry was first publicly reported in the end of September – early October.
On 18 November
In November the industry relied on government funds distributed through
Automotive industry
In June 2008
Construction and real estate
In the first half of 2008 Russian construction industry, apparently immune of the global financial squeeze, grew by 22% in nominal money compared to 2007.
27 October Vladimir Putin urged the government agencies to increase state purchases of road and housing construction services, arguing that the state must capitalize on the decrease in prices of raw materials. The state allocated 50 billion roubles to buy ready-to-occupy urban housing from cash-strapped developers. Putin emphasized that the new contracts must be struck on new, decreased, price terms – estimated to be 20–30% cheaper than in spring.[100] Strabag executive estimated that in 2009 construction costs will decrease a further 30%.[101] In November Moscow city government has been successfully pressing local developers for a 25% discount against October auction prices; the only developer who attempted to sue the city for a breach of contract withdrew their lawsuit and accepted the government terms. City government also pulled out of the 118-floor Russia Tower project,[102] which was immediately suspended by its developer, citing "credit crunch".[103]
Other industries
In November, the volume of Russian paper exports to China decreased by 30–40%, coupled with a 30% drop in prices. Exports to Western Europe fare marginally better, with an estimated 25–40% drop in production volumes. Russia's largest producer of industrial paper bags, Segezh Paper Mill (controlled by the Bank of Moscow and the City of Moscow[104]), declared a ten-day shutdown on 24 November.[105] UPM-Kymmene Oyj anticipates at least a 30–40% decrease in output compared to 2008.[105] In June 2010, President Dmitry Medvedev visited Silicon Valley in San Jose, California in order to cultivate ideas of how to develop Russia as a major research center. Skolkovo, a mid-sized city near Moscow, is the proposed location for this Russian Silicon Valley, and will have its own tax structure. Yet, Medvedev has been criticized by opposition politicians for deflecting attention away from the struggling economy and corruption.
Airlines
In June–August 2008 the fleet of
Agriculture, food industry and retail
Russia had a high grain harvest in 2008, but so it was elsewhere in the world, bringing the prices down. To support the trade,
Domestic retail chains,
Social impact
Unemployment
A proprietary Ernst & Young survey of 113 clients that leaked into Russian press in November summarized their losses at 8% of managerial and 6% of low-level jobs by end of October. All companies in the survey practiced some sort of reducing labor costs. One company in four practiced unpaid "vacations"; 8% of clients settled for reduced working hours.[115] Federal Migratory Service announced in November that 1123 Russian companies reported upcoming layoffs of 45 thousand.[74]
Most layoffs were reported in metallurgy and financial services: 20% in
By late November, Kremlin First Deputy Chief of Staff, Vladislav Surkov, was warning that the middle classes should be defended from poverty during the crisis. He called for swift measures to protect the middle class from layoffs and to support consumption.[118] "If the 1980s were the times of the intellectuals and the 1990s were the times of the oligarchs then the 00s can be seen as the epoch of the middle classes,' Surkov said in a speech published on the Web site of the ruling United Russia party ... The main task of the state during the slump must become the preservation of the middle class, the defence of the middle class from the waves of poverty and confusion that are coming from the West," he said.[118]
According to official statements released 9 December, rate of unemployment growth peaked in the middle of November and slowed down in subsequent weeks. In the week ending 3 December overall unemployment grew by 1.6% to 1.315 million people, following a 2.3% increase in the preceding week. The state also reported an increase in unpaid vacations and reduced working week employees to 149.3 thousands. The number increased by 84% in a single week ending 3 December. The trade unions anticipate that official unemployment will peak at around 2 million people in 2009, when hidden forms of unemployment become visible to statisticians.[119] Yet on 12 December Putin announced completely different unemployment numbers – 4.6 million in October.[120]
In February 2009 the unemployment rate peaked at a seven-year high of 9.4%, then began to steadily decline, falling to 7.7% as of October.[121]
Consumer price inflation
Official consumer price inflation in January–August 2008 reached 14.8%.[112] By the end of November, food price inflation for an 11-month period reached 15.3%. Overall price inflation, taking into account consumer and industrial prices, reached 12.5% compared to 10.6% for the same period of 2007. Decline in short-term inflation was credited to a reduction in monetary supply.[122] Inflation slowed through 2009 with a year on year rate of 9.1% as of November, down from 13.8% a year earlier.[123]
See also
- 1998 Russian financial crisis
- Financial crisis of 2007-2008
- Great Recession
- 2008-2009 Latvian financial crisis
- 2000s commodities boom
- Russian financial crisis (2014–2016)
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