Next Estonian parliamentary election

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Next Estonian parliamentary election
← 2023 By 7 March 2027
All 101 seats in the Riigikogu
51 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
Leader Kaja Kallas Martin Helme Mihhail Kõlvart
Party Reform EKRE Centre
Last election 31.24%, 37 seats 16.05%, 17 seats 15.28%, 16 seats
 
Leader Margus Tsahkna Lauri Läänemets Urmas Reinsalu
Party E200 SDE Isamaa
Last election 13.33%, 14 seats 9.27%, 9 seats 8.21%, 8 seats
Electoral districts
Incumbent Prime Minister

Kaja Kallas
Reform



Parliamentary elections will be held in Estonia by 7 March 2027 to elect all 101 members of the Riigikogu. Electoral district reform has been discussed for the next election.[1][2]

Background

Political developments

Following the 2023 Estonian parliamentary election, in which the Reform Party managed to maintain its position as biggest party in parliament, its leader and incumbent Prime Minister Kaja Kallas was reconfirmed in the office, forming a coalition with the Social Democrats and Estonia 200.

Reform Party

In the first year, the party's performance in opinion polls suffered significantly from the party's decision to back several tax increases unpopular with the economically libreal voter base as well as due to a scandal involving party leader Kaja Kallas. In August 2023, she came under the international spotlight after it was revealed that her husband held a significant share in a transportation company, Stark Logistics, which continued business with Russia despite Kallas's previous calls for Estonian companies to cease operations in Russia in the aftermath of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.[3] Kallas tried to minimise the affair and ignored the calls for her resignation from her political opponents, calling the controversy a "witch-hunt".[4]

Conservative People's Party (EKRE)

After the 2023 parliamentary election, EKRE's support originally skyrocketed due to being the largest opposition party against the incumbent government, yet soon declined as voters began to see Isamaa as a more moderate, fiscally competent and unshakably pro-Ukraine alternative to the government.[5][6]

Centre Party

In September 2023 Mihhail Kõlvart, then-mayor of Tallinn, won the Centre Party's leadership election. His victory marked a significant change in the party's direction, choosing to focus more on its Russophone electoral base and shifting to socially conservative and economically syncretic positions, with the party becoming seen as one specifically of the niche Russian minority concentrated in the capital Tallinn and Ida-Viru County.[7][8][9] As a result, in the following months the previous party leader Jüri Ratas and several other party members defected to other political forces, leaving Centre Party with one third of its initial parliamentary representation (down to only 6 MPs) and with an increasingly weaker position in opinion polls.[10][11][12]

Estonia 200

In the months following the 2023 Estonian parliamentary election, Estonia 200 quickly saw its support plummet, which has mostly been attributed to various scandals and the fading of the party's image of novelty.[13]

Social Democratic Party

For the first year since the last election, the Social Democrats remained the only party in the government coalition to avoid losing support in polling. This was attributed to the party members' statements on the party's policy positions, especially those of the leader of the party Lauri Läänemets, setting the Social Democrats ideologically apart from the two economically liberal parties in the coalition. Moreover, the party gained MPs and members from the defections out of the Centre Party, including seeing its number of MPs increase from 9 to 13.[14][15]

Isamaa

Starting August 2023, Isamaa saw its support quickly rocket to unprecedented historic highs.[16][17] Those gains in polling were mainly attributed to the party gaining 3 MPs and several other members defecting from the Centre Party, EKRE being seen as too extreme of an option as an alternative to the government coalition and the success of the newly elected party leader Urmas Reinsalu, and his frequent public statements on any topical issues, in attracting disgruntled Reform Party voters unhappy with its fiscal policy.[18][19][5][20]

Electoral system

See also: Politics of Estonia

The Riigikogu is made up of 101 seats and its representatives are elected by proportional representation in twelve multi-member constituencies.[21] First, seats are to be filled in 12 constituencies of 5 to 16 seats depending on their population, and the remaining seats, known as "compensation seats", are allocated using the d'Hondt method to all parties that exceeded the 5% electoral threshold, to bring the results in terms of seats as close as possible to those of the vote of the population.[22][23] Voters have the possibility of casting a preferential vote for one of the candidates on the list for which they are voting.[22][23] If a candidate collects more preferential votes than the amount of the simple quotient in his constituency, they are declared elected even if the list for which they are candidate for fails to cross the 5% electoral threshold.[22][23]

Seats by electoral district

# Electoral district Seats
1 Haabersti, Põhja-Tallinn and Kristiine districts in Tallinn 10
2 Kesklinn, Lasnamäe and Pirita districts in Tallinn 13
3 Mustamäe and Nõmme districts in Tallinn 8
4 Harju (excluding Tallinn) and Rapla counties 16
5 Hiiu, Lääne and Saare counties 6
6 Lääne-Viru county 5
7 Ida-Viru county 6
8 Järva and Viljandi counties 7
9 Jõgeva and Tartu counties (excluding Tartu) 7
10 City of Tartu 8
11 Võru, Valga and Põlva counties 8
12 Pärnu county 7
Source: Eesti Rahvusringhääling[24]

Opinion polling

Main article: Opinion polling for the next Estonian parliamentary election
Local regression chart of poll results

References

  1. ^ ERR, Madis Hindre | (3 April 2023). "Valimisringkondadest valimiseani – ees võivad seista suured muutused". ERR (in Estonian). Retrieved 8 November 2023.
  2. ^ ERR, Uku Toom | (29 May 2023). "Valimisringkondade muutmiseks tellitakse analüüs". ERR (in Estonian). Retrieved 8 November 2023.
  3. ^ Milne, Richard (24 August 2023). "Financial Times: Estonian PM Kaja Kallas urged to clarify husband's Russian business ties". Financial Times. Retrieved 25 August 2023.
  4. ISSN 0261-3077
    . Retrieved 13 September 2023.
  5. ^ a b Saarts, Tõnis (26 November 2023). "Tõnis Saarts: The EKRE triumph that never happened". ERR. Retrieved 27 February 2024.
  6. ^ "TAGATUBA | Urmas Reinsalu jõuab teha Eestile tiiru peale enne, kui Martin Helme midagi aru saab". Delfi (in Estonian). Retrieved 25 April 2024.
  7. ^ Kramer, Samuel (10 October 2023). "Doubling Down: Estonia's Center Party Gamble on Mihail Kõlvart". Foreign Policy Research Institute. Retrieved 27 February 2024.
  8. ^ "JUHTKIRI ⟩ Kõlvarti tragöödia". Arvamus (in Estonian). 4 January 2024. Retrieved 27 February 2024.
  9. ^ ERR, Anne Raiste | (7 January 2024). "Saarts: lahkumiste laine võib Keskerakonna marginaliseerida". ERR (in Estonian). Retrieved 27 February 2024.
  10. ^ Bartosz, Chmielewski (8 February 2024). "The gradual break-up of the Estonian Centre Party". Center for Eastern Studies. Retrieved 27 February 2024.
  11. ^ ERR (5 January 2024). "Keskerakonnast lahkus kuus riigikogu liiget". ERR (in Estonian). Retrieved 27 February 2024.
  12. ^ ERR (29 January 2024). "Jüri Ratas lahkus Keskerakonnast ja liitub Isamaaga". ERR (in Estonian). Retrieved 27 February 2024.
  13. ^ ERR, Reet Weidebaum | (19 June 2023). "Saarts Eesti 200 toetuse langusest: mingil hetkel saab uudsuse kapital otsa". ERR (in Estonian). Retrieved 25 April 2024.
  14. ^ ERR, ERR | (20 October 2023). "Party ratings expert: The situation is revolutionary". ERR. Retrieved 27 February 2024.
  15. ^ ERR, ERR | (7 February 2024). "Ratings: Support equalizes for Reform Party and SDE". ERR. Retrieved 27 February 2024.
  16. ^ ERR, ERR | (21 February 2024). "Ratings: Isamaa's support rises further still". ERR. Retrieved 27 February 2024.
  17. ^ ERR, Urmet Kook | (16 February 2024). "Kantar Emor ratings: Isamaa support reaches historic high, Center Party's slump continues". ERR. Retrieved 27 February 2024.
  18. ^ ERR, ERR | (20 October 2023). "Party ratings expert: The situation is revolutionary". ERR. Retrieved 27 February 2024.
  19. ^ ERR, ERR | (16 February 2024). "Ratings special: Jüri Ratas has been a boost to Isamaa". ERR. Retrieved 27 February 2024.
  20. ^ "TAGATUBA | Urmas Reinsalu jõuab teha Eestile tiiru peale enne, kui Martin Helme midagi aru saab". Delfi (in Estonian). Retrieved 25 April 2024.
  21. ^ "Riigikogu Election Act". Riigi Teataja. 20 January 2015. Archived from the original on 12 September 2020. Retrieved 1 April 2015.
  22. ^ a b c "Estonia: Riigikogu (The Estonian Parliament)". Inter-Parliamentary Union Parline. Archived from the original on 8 February 2020. Retrieved 7 February 2023.
  23. ^ a b c "Valimised". Eesti.ee (in Estonian). Archived from the original on 7 February 2023. Retrieved 7 February 2023.
  24. ^ "Harju- ja Raplamaa saab Ida-Viru arvelt valimistel ühe mandaadi juurde". Eesti Rahvusringhääling (in Estonian). 11 November 2022. Archived from the original on 15 February 2023. Retrieved 8 February 2023.

External links

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