Electoral threshold
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The electoral threshold, or election threshold, is the minimum share of all the votes cast that a candidate or political party requires to achieve before they become entitled to representation or additional seats in a
The effect of this electoral threshold is to deny representation to small parties or to force them into coalitions, with the presumption of rendering the election system more stable by keeping out fringe parties. Proponents say that simply having a few seats in a legislature can significantly boost the profile of a fringe party and that providing representation and possibly veto power for a party that receives only 1 percent of the vote is not appropriate.
Two boundaries can be defined—a threshold of representation is the minimum vote share that might yield a party a seat under the most favorable circumstances for the party, while the threshold of exclusion is the maximum vote share that could be insufficient to yield a seat under the least favorable circumstances. Arend Lijphart suggested calculating the informal threshold as the mean of these.[2]
The electoral threshold is a
Recommendations for electoral thresholds
The Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe recommends for parliamentary elections a threshold not higher than three percent.[4] For single transferable vote, to put the natural threshold at about ten percent, John M. Carey and Simon Hix recommend a low district magnitude of approximately six.[5][6] Most STV systems used today set the number of votes for the election of most members at the Droop quota, which in a six-member district is 14 percent.
Electoral thresholds in various countries
In Poland's Sejm, Lithuania's Seimas, Germany's Bundestag and New Zealand's House of Representatives, the threshold is 5 percent (in Poland, additionally 8 percent for a coalition of two or more parties submitting a joint electoral list and in Lithuania, additionally 7 percent for coalition). However, in New Zealand, if a party wins a directly elected seat, the threshold does not apply.
The threshold is 3.25 percent in Israel's
There are also countries such as Portugal, South Africa, Finland, the Netherlands and North Macedonia that have proportional representation systems without a legal threshold, although the Netherlands has a rule that the first seat can never be a remainder seat, which means that there is an effective threshold of 100 percent divided by the total number of seats (with 150 seats to allocate, this threshold is currently 0.67%).
Australia
The
Germany
Germany, has a regular threshold of 5 percent, and ethnic minority parties have no threshold.[7] The 2021 election demonstrated the exception for ethnic minority party: the South Schleswig Voters' Association entered the Bundestag with just 0.1 percent as a registered party for Danish and Frisian minorities. The exception to the 5 percent electoral threshold by winning three constituency seats has been repealed in 2023. That exception allowed the Left to qualify for list votes despite getting just 4.9 percent.
Norway
In Norway, the nationwide electoral threshold of 4 percent applies only to leveling seats. A party with sufficient local support may still win the regular district seats, even if the party fails to meet the threshold. For example, the 2021 election saw the Green Party and Christian Democratic Party each win three district seats, and Patient Focus winning one district seat despite missing the threshold.
Slovenia
In Slovenia, the threshold was set at 3 parliamentary seats during parliamentary elections in 1992 and 1996. This meant that the parties needed to win about 3.2 percent of the votes in order to pass the threshold. In 2000, the threshold was raised to 4 percent of the votes.
Sweden
In Sweden, there is a nationwide threshold of 4 percent for the Riksdag, but if a party reaches 12 percent in any electoral constituency, it will take part in the seat allocation for that constituency.[8] As of the 2022 election, nobody has been elected based on the 12 percent rule.
United States
In the United States, as the majority of elections are conducted under the first-past-the-post system, legal electoral thresholds do not apply in the actual voting. However, several states have threshold requirements for parties to obtain automatic ballot access to the next general election without having to submit voter-signed petitions. The threshold requirements have no practical bearing on the two main political parties (the Republican and Democratic parties) as they easily meet the requirements, but have come into play for minor parties such as the Green and Libertarian parties. The threshold rules also apply for independent candidates to obtain ballot access.
List of electoral thresholds by country
Africa
Country | Lower (or sole) house | Upper house | Other elections | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
For individual parties | For other types | Other threshold | |||
Benin | 10%[9] | ||||
Burundi | 2%[10] | ||||
Lesotho | None, natural threshold ~0.4% | ||||
Mozambique | 5%[11] | ||||
Rwanda | 5% | ||||
South Africa | None, natural threshold ~0.2% |
Asia and Oceania
Country | Lower (or sole) house | Upper house | Other elections | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
For individual parties | For other types | Other threshold | |||
Australia | Single-member districts for the House of Representatives
|
||||
East Timor | 4%[12][13][14] | ||||
Fiji | 5% | ||||
Indonesia | 4%[15] | ||||
Israel | 3.25% | ||||
Kazakhstan | 5% | ||||
Kyrgyzstan | 5% and 0.5% of the vote in each of the seven regions | ||||
Nepal | 3% vote each under the proportional representation category and at least one seat under the first-past-the-post voting | ||||
New Zealand | 5%[16] | 1 constituency seat | |||
Palestine | 2% | ||||
Philippines | 2% | Other parties can still qualify if the 20% of the seats have not been filled up. | |||
South Korea | 3%[17][18] | 5 constituency seats | 5% (local council elections)[19] | ||
Taiwan | 5%[20] | ||||
Tajikistan | 5%[21] | ||||
Thailand | None, natural threshold ~0.1%[22] |
Europe
Country | Lower (or sole) house | Upper house | Other elections | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
For individual parties | For other types | Other threshold | |||
Albania | 3% | 5% for multi-party alliances to each electoral area level[23] | |||
Andorra | 7.14% (1⁄14 of votes cast)[24] | ||||
Armenia | 5% | 7% for multi-party alliances | |||
Austria | 4% | 0% for ethnic minorities | |||
Belgium | 5% (at constituency level; no national threshold) | ||||
Bosnia and Herzegovina | 3% (at constituency level; no national threshold) | ||||
Bulgaria | 4% | ||||
Croatia | 5% (at constituency level; no national threshold) | ||||
Cyprus | 3.6% | 1.8% in European Parliament elections | |||
Czech Republic | 5% | 8% for bipartite alliances, 11% for multi-party alliances; does not apply for EU elections | |||
Denmark | 2%[25][26] | 1 constituency seat | |||
Estonia | 5% | ||||
Finland | None, but high natural threshold due to multiple districts | ||||
France | Not applicable | 5% in European Parliament elections[27] and in municipal elections for cities with at least 1000 habitants[28][29] | |||
Georgia | 5%[30] | 3% for local elections in all municipalities but Tbilisi (2.5%)[30] | |||
Germany | 5% |
0% for ethnic minorities | 0% in European Parliament elections | ||
Greece | 3% | ||||
Hungary | 5% | 10% for bipartite alliances, 15% for multi-party alliances, 0.26% for ethnic minorities (for the first seat only) | |||
Ireland | Natural threshold 8 – 12% because 3 to 5 seats in each constituency | ||||
Iceland | 5% (only for compensatory seats)[31] | ||||
Italy | 3% | 10% (party alliances), but a list must reach at least 3%, 1% (parties of party alliances), 20% or two constituencies (ethnic minorities) | 3% | ||
Kosovo | 5% | ||||
Latvia | 5% | ||||
Liechtenstein | 8% | ||||
Lithuania | 5% | 7% for party alliances | |||
Malta | natural threshold 12% due to district magnitude of 5 | ||||
Moldova | 5% | 3% (non-party), 12% (party alliances) | |||
Monaco | 5%[32] | ||||
Montenegro | 3% | Special rules apply for candidate lists representing national minority communities.[33] | |||
Netherlands | 0.6̅% (percent of votes needed for one seat; parties failing to reach this threshold have no right to a possible remainder seat)[34] | ||||
Northern Cyprus | 5% | ||||
North Macedonia | None, but high natural threshold due to multiple districts | ||||
Norway | 4% (only for compensatory seats) | ||||
Poland | 5% | 8% (alliances; does not apply for EU elections); 0% (ethnic minorities) | |||
Portugal | None, but high natural threshold due to multiple districts | ||||
Romania | 5% | 10% (alliances) | |||
Russia | 5% | ||||
San Marino | 5%[35] | ||||
Scotland | 5% | ||||
Spain | 3% (constituency). Ceuta and Melilla use first-past-the-post system. |
None | 5% for local elections. Variable in regional elections. | ||
Sweden | 4% (national level) 12% (constituency) |
||||
Switzerland | None, but high natural threshold in some electoral districts | ||||
Serbia | 3%[36] | 0% for ethnic minorities[37][36] | |||
Slovakia | 5% | 7% for bi- and tri-partite alliances, 10% for 4- or more-party alliances[38] | |||
Slovenia | 4% | ||||
Turkey | 7%[39] | 7% for multi-party alliances. Parties in an alliance not being subject to any nationwide threshold individually. No threshold for independent candidates. | |||
Ukraine | 5%[40] | ||||
Wales | 5% |
The electoral threshold for elections to the European Parliament varies for each member state, a threshold of up to 5 percent is applied for individual electoral districts, no threshold is applied across the whole legislative body.[41]
North America
Country | Lower (or sole) house | Upper house | Other elections | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
For individual parties | For other types | Other threshold | |||
Costa Rica | None, but high natural threshold due to its use of some multiple-member districts with less than 10 seats | ||||
Mexico | 3% |
South America
Country | Lower (or sole) house | Upper house | Other elections | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
For individual parties | For other types | Other threshold | |||
Argentina | 3% of registered voters[42] | 1.5% of valid votes for primaries
| |||
Bolivia | 3% | ||||
Brazil | No national electoral threshold, for parties threshold is 80% of the natural threshold in the district; for candidates 20% of the natural threshold in the district.[43][44] | threshold for financial contributions is 2% at constituency level or 11 deputies in 9 states,[45][46][47] increasing 2026 to 2.5% and 2030 to 3% | |||
Chile | None, but high natural threshold due to its use of multiple-member districts with less than 10 seats | ||||
Colombia | 3% | ||||
Ecuador | None, but high natural threshold due to its use of multiple-member districts with less than 10 seats | ||||
Paraguay | None, but high natural threshold due to its use of multiple-member districts with less than 10 seats | ||||
Peru | 5%[48] | ||||
Uruguay | 1% | 3% |
Legal challenges
The German
Natural threshold
The number of seats in each electoral district creates a "hidden" natural threshold (also called an effective, or informal threshold). The number of votes that means that a party is guaranteed a seat can be calculated by the formula () where ε is the smallest possible number of votes. That means that in a district with four seats slightly more than 20 percent of the votes will guarantee a seat. Under more favorable circumstances, the party can still win a seat with fewer votes.[54] The most important factor in determining the natural threshold is the number of seats to be filled by the district. Other factors are the seat allocation formula (Saint-Laguë, D'Hondt or Hare), the number of contestant political parties and the size of the assembly. Generally, smaller districts leads to a higher proportion of votes needed to win a seat and vice versa.[55] The lower bound (the threshold of representation or the percentage of the vote that allows a party to earn a seat under the most favorable circumstances) is more difficult to calculate. In addition to the factors mentioned earlier, the number of votes cast for smaller parties are important. If more votes are cast for parties that do not win any seat, that will mean a lower percentage of votes needed to win a seat.[54]
Notable cases
It has been suggested that this section be split out and merged as needed into articles titled Wasted vote and Vote splitting, one or more of which already exist. (Discuss) (January 2024) |
An extreme example occurred in Turkey following the 2002 Turkish general election, where almost none of the 550 incumbent MPs were returned. This was a seismic shift that rocked Turkish politics to its foundations. None of the political parties that had passed the threshold in 1999, passed it again: DYP received only 9.55 percent of the popular vote, MHP received 8.34 percent, GP 7.25 percent, DEHAP 6.23 percent, ANAP 5.13 percent, SP 2.48 percent and DSP 1.22 percent. The aggregate number of wasted votes was an unprecented 46.33 percent (14,545,438). As a result, Erdoğan's AKP gained power, winning more than two-thirds of the seats in the Parliament with just 34.28 percent of the vote, with only one opposition party (CHP, which by itself failed to pass threshold in 1999) and 9 independents.
Other dramatic events can be produced by the loophole often added in
- Epsom), which entitled the party to list seats (4). In the 2011 election, leaders of the National Party and ACT had tea together before the press to promote the implicit alliance (see tea tape scandal). After their victories, the Nationals passed a confidence and supply agreement with ACT to form the Fifth National Government of New Zealand.
- In Germany, the post-communist Berlin-Treptow-Köpenick, and Leipzig II), salvaging the party, which received 39 MPs.
The failure of one party to reach the threshold not only deprives their candidates of office and their voters of representation; it also changes the power index in the assembly, which may have dramatic implications for coalition-building.
- Slovakia, 2002. The True Slovak National Party (PSNS) split from Slovak National Party (SNS), and Movement for Democracy (HZD) split from the previously dominant People's Party – Movement for a Democratic Slovakia. All of them failed to cross the 5 percent threshold with PSNS having 3.65 percent, SNS 3.33 percent and HZD 3.26 percent respectively, thus allowing a center-right coalition despite having less than 43 percent of the vote.
- Norway, leveling seats, although still winning two seats. Hence, while right-wing opposition parties won more votes between them than the parties in the governing coalition, the narrow failure of the Liberal Party to cross the threshold kept the governing coalition in power. It crossed the threshold again at the following electionwith 5.2 percent.
- In the 2013 German federal election, the FDP, in Parliament since 1949, received only 4.8 percent of the list vote, and won no single district, excluding the party altogether. This, along with the failure of the right-wing eurosceptic party AfD (4.7%), gave a left-wing majority in Parliament despite a center-right majority of votes (CDU/CSU itself fell short of an absolute majority by just 5 seats). As a result, Merkel's CDU/CSU formed a grand coalition with the SPD.
- Poland, KORWiN only reached 4.76 percent, narrowly missing the 5 percent threshold for individual parties. This allowed the victorious PiSto obtain a majority of seats with 37 percent of the vote. This was the first parliament without left-wing parties represented.
- Israel, .
- Czech Republic, 1992.
Memorable dramatic losses due to electoral threshold
- In the 1990 German federal election, the Western Greens did not meet the threshold, which was applied separately for former East and West Germany. The Greens could not take advantage of this, because the "Alliance 90" (which had absorbed the East German Greens) ran separately from "The Greens" in the West. Together, they would have narrowly passed the 5.0 percent threshold (West: 4.8%, East: 6.2%). The Western Greens returned to the Bundestag in 1994.
- Israel, 1992. The extreme right-wing Tehiya (Revival) received 1.2 percent of the votes, which was below the threshold which it had itself voted to raise to 1.5 percent. It thus lost its three seats.
- In Bulgaria, the so-called "blue parties"[56] or "urban right"[57] which include SDS, DSB, Yes, Bulgaria!, DBG, ENP and Blue Unity frequently get just above or below the electoral threshold depending on formation of electoral alliances: In the EP election 2007, DSB (4.74%) and SDS (4.35%) were campaigning separately and both fell below the natural electoral of around 5 percent. In 2009 Bulgarian parliamentary election, DSB and SDS ran together as Blue Coalition gaining 6.76 percent. In 2013 Bulgarian parliamentary election, campaigning separately DGB received 3.25 percent, DSB 2.93 percent, SDS 1.37 percent and ENP 0.17 percent, thus all of them failed to cross the threshold this even led to a tie between the former opposition and the parties right of the centre. In the EP election 2014, SDS, DSB and DBG ran as Reformist Bloc gaining 6.45 percent and crossing the electoral threshold, while Blue Unity campaigned separately and did not cross the electoral threshold. In 2017 Bulgarian parliamentary election, SDS and DBG ran as Reformist Bloc gaining 3.06 percent, "Yes, Bulgaria!" received 2.88 percent, DSB 2.48 percent, thus all of them failed to cross the electoral threshold. In the EP election 2019, "Yes, Bulgaria!" and DBG ran together as Democratic Bulgaria and crossed the electoral threshold with 5.88 percent. In November 2021, electoral alliance Democratic Bulgaria crossed electoral threshold with 6.28 percent.
- Slovakia, Party of the Hungarian Community which (including their predecessors) hold seats in parliament since the Velvet Revolution and the People's Party – Movement for a Democratic Slovakia, which dominated in the 1990s, received 4.33 percent and thus failed to achieve the 5 percent threshold.
- Slovakia, 2016. The Christian Democratic Movement achieved 4.94 percent missing only 0.06 percent votes to reach the threshold which meant the first absence of the party since the Velvet Revolution and the first democratic elections in 1990.
- Slovakia, SPOLU won 6.96 percent of votes, falling only 0.04 percent short of the 7 percent threshold for coalitions. This was an unexpected defeat since the coalition had won seats in the 2019 European election and won the 2019 presidential election less than a year earlier. In addition, two other parties won fewer votes but were able to win seats due to the lower threshold for single parties (5%). This was also the first election since the Velvet Revolutionin which no party of the Hungarian minority crossed the 5 percent threshold.
- Lithuania, 2020. The LLRA–KŠS won only 4.80 percent of the party list votes.
- Madrid, Spain, Ciudadanos party crashed down to just 3.54 percent in the 2021 snap election called by Isabel Díaz Ayuso, failing to get close to the 5 percent threshold.
- Slovenia, 2022. Democratic Party of Pensioners of Slovenia only achieved 0.62 percent of the vote. This was the first time when DeSUS did not reached the 4 percent since 1996 which was part of almost every coalition since its foundation.
- Germany, 2022 Saarland state election. Alliance 90/The Greens fell 23 votes or 0.005 percent short of reaching representation. The Left fell from 12.8 percent to below the electoral threshold with 2.6 percent in their only western stronghold. Total percentage of votes not represented was 22.3 percent.[58]
- Israel, 2022 Israeli legislative election. Meretz fell to 3.16 percent thus failed to cross the threshold for the first time.
Coalitions due to electoral thresholds
There has been cases of tries to attempts to circumvent thresholds:
- Slovakia, 1998. Slovak Democratic Coalition ran as political party because the threshold was 25 percent.
- Turkey, 2007 and 2011. The DTP/BDP-led Thousand Hope Candidates and Labour, Democracy and Freedom Bloc only gained 3.81 percent (2007) and 5.67 percent (2011) of the vote not crossing the 10 percent threshold but because they ran as independents they won 22 and 36 seats.
- Poland, 2019. After the United Left and KORWiN failed to cross the thresholds in 2015 both of them with their new alliances bypassed the coalition threshold by either running under SLD label (Lewica) or registering their alliance as a party itself (Confederation). Similarly to Lewica, the Polish Coalition ran under Polish People's Party label. Lewica and Polish Coalition would have crossed the coalition threshold of 8 percent with 12.56 percent and 8.55 percent respectively while Confederation only gained 6.81 percent of the vote.
- Czechia, alliance tried to bypass the coalition threshold by renaming Tricolour to include the names of their partners but they only received 2.76 percent, failing to cross the usual 5 percent threshold.
Amount of wasted vote
Electoral thresholds can sometimes seriously affect the relationship between the percentages of the popular vote achieved by each party and the distribution of seats. The proportionality between seat share and popular vote can be measured by the Gallagher index while the amount of wasted votes is a measure of the total number of voters not represented by any party sitting in the legislature.
The failure of one party to reach the threshold not only deprives their candidates of office and their voters of representation; it also changes the power index in the assembly, which may have dramatic implications for coalition-building.
The amount of wasted vote changes from one election to another, here shown for New Zealand.[59] The wasted vote changes depending on voter behavior and size of effective electoral threshold,[60] for example in 2005 New Zealand general election every party above 1 percent received seats due to the electoral threshold in New Zealand of at least one seat in first-past-the-post voting, which caused a much lower wasted vote compared to the other years.
In the Russian parliamentary elections in 1995, with a threshold excluding parties under 5 percent, more than 45 percent of votes went to parties that failed to reach the threshold. In 1998, the Russian Constitutional Court found the threshold legal, taking into account limits in its use.[61]
After the first implementation of the threshold in Poland in 1993 34.4 percent of the popular vote did not gain representation.
There had been a similar situation in Turkey, which had a 10 percent threshold, easily higher than in any other country.[62] The justification for such a high threshold was to prevent multi-party coalitions and put a stop to the endless fragmentation of political parties seen in the 1960s and 1970s. However, coalitions ruled between 1991 and 2002, but mainstream parties continued to be fragmented and in the 2002 elections as many as 45 percent of votes were cast for parties which failed to reach the threshold and were thus unrepresented in the parliament.[63] All parties which won seats in 1999 failed to cross the threshold, thus giving Justice and Development Party 66 percent of the seats.
In the
In Bulgaria, 24 percent of voters cast their ballots for parties that would not gain representation in the elections of 1991 and 2013.
In the
In the Philippines where party-list seats are only
Electoral thresholds can produce a
On occasion, electoral thresholds have resulted in a party winning an outright majority of seats without winning an outright majority of votes, the sort of outcome that a proportional voting system is supposed to prevent. For instance, the Turkish
In contrast, elections that use the
See also
- List of democracy and elections-related topics
Notes
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- ^ Resolution 1547 (2007), para. 58
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- .
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- ^ Benin Country Report 2022, Bertelsmann Stiftung
- ^ Electoral system IPU
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- ^ Timor Agora: PN APROVA BAREIRA ELEISAUN PARLAMENTAR 4%, 13 February 2017, retrieved 23 March 2017.
- ^ "New election bill, new hope for democracy".
- ^ Electoral Commission: What is MMP?
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- ^ 공직선거법 제190조의2 제1항(The first clause of Article 190-2 of the Public Official Election Act)
- ^ "Legislative Yuan Elections – Central Election Commission". Archived from the original on 9 April 2014. Retrieved 20 June 2014.
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- Yumak and Sadak v. Turkey, no. 10226/03. See also B. Bowring Negating Pluralist Democracy: The European Court of Human Rights Forgets the Rights of the Electors// KHRP Legal Review 11 (2007)
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