Robert Cahaly

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Robert Cahaly
Born
Robert C. Cahaly

political consultant
OrganizationTrafalgar Group
Known forWeighting opinion polls to account for a purported "shyness" among Donald Trump supporters
Political partyRepublican

Robert C. Cahaly is an American

political consultant for Republican Party candidates.[1]

Cahaly founded Trafalgar Group in 2016. He drew attention in the aftermath of the election, in which Trafalgar had been one of the only polling firms to predict

2016 presidential election. Cahaly claimed that Trafalgar's polling methodology was more accurate than other polls because it utilized methods to increase the weighting of supposed "shy, pro-Trump" voters, which he argued to be underrepresented in most polls.[2] Cahaly does not disclose Trafalgar's group's methods of polling or its process for ascertaining the volume of shy Trump voters in the electorate.[3]

Leading up to the 2020 presidential election, Cahaly garnered substantial media attention for his assertions that Trump would prevail over Joe Biden in the 2020 election, a claim that contradicted the polling consensus.[4][5] Cahaly's prediction of a Trump victory proved to be wrong, with him (and Trafalgar) incorrectly predicting Trump victories in five battleground states won by Biden.[6]

Early life

Cahaly was born in

Eastern Orthodox Christian.[1][8][9][10][11]
Starting as a child, he volunteered on various political campaigns, before eventually founding his own political consulting firm in 1997.

Career

Political consultant

Cahaly has worked on campaigns for various Republicans, including governors

better source needed
]

On November 3, 2010, Cahaly was arrested by the

robocalls.[15]

Pollster

Cahaly gained media attention in 2016 for being one of the few pollsters to accurately predict that

social desirability bias."[17][18]

In November 2020, Cahaly appeared on Hannity on Fox News and predicted that Trump would win Pennsylvania, but possibly still lose the state through voter fraud: "He better win by 4 or 5% to make sure he gets victory there. That is the margin he needs to avoid what they will systematically do."[19]

In September 2022, Cahaly, in an interview with Split Ticket, acknowledged methodological changes from his polling of the 2020 United States elections.[20]

The

2022 United States midterm elections.[21] Trafalgar's polls incorrectly suggested that Republican candidates such as Kari Lake, Mehmet Oz, Tim Michels, and Herschel Walker
, would all win.

References

  1. ^ a b c "Robert Cahaly".
  2. ^ Cahaly, Robert (October 29, 2020). "Polling Methodology". Trafalgar Group. Retrieved October 29, 2020.
  3. ^ Russonello, Giovanni; Lyall, Sarah (8 November 2020). "The One Pollster in America Who is Sure Trump is Going to Win". The New York Times.
  4. ^ Russonello, Giovanni; Lyall, Sarah (4 November 2020). "The One Pollster in America Who Is Sure Trump Is Going to Win". The New York Times. Retrieved 5 November 2020.
  5. ^ Kaut, Kendall (6 November 2020). "Trafalgar's Missed a Lot in 2018 and 2020".
  6. ISSN 0190-8286
    .
  7. ^ "GOP consultant arrested for illegal "robocalls" Nov. 2, 2010 https://www.wistv.com/story/13429729/gop-consultant-to-face-sled-arrest-for-illegal-robocalls/
  8. ^ "Family tree of Robert CAHALY". Geneanet. Retrieved 2021-03-27.
  9. ^ "Family tree of Margaret Nashawaty". Geneanet. Retrieved 2021-03-27.
  10. ^ "The Wellesley Townsman". wellesley.wickedlocal.com. Retrieved 2021-03-27.
  11. ^ "Pogo After Twelve | News | The Harvard Crimson". www.thecrimson.com. Retrieved 2021-03-27.
  12. ^ "Robert Cahaly".
  13. ^ "GOP consultant arrested for illegal "robocalls"". 2 November 2010. Retrieved Oct 27, 2015.
  14. ^ "Charges Against GOP Consultant Cahaly Dropped". 5 October 2012. Retrieved Oct 27, 2015.
  15. ^ "Fed Court rules law Cahaly charged under unconstitutional". Retrieved Oct 27, 2015.
  16. ^ "An Evaluation of 2016 Election Polls in the U.S. - AAPOR". www.aapor.org. Archived from the original on 2018-04-15. Retrieved 2020-11-03.
  17. ^ Ed Kilgore, "There’s Still No Evidence Trump Voters Are Particularly ‘Shy’" New York Magazine, JULY 29, 2020 https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/07/theres-still-no-evidence-trump-voters-are-particularly-shy.html
  18. ^ "Four Problems With 2016 Trump Polling That Could Play Out Again in 2020," New York Times, Nov. 25, 2019
  19. ^ Hall, Colby (2 November 2020). "Trafalgar Pollster Robert Cahaly Makes Baseless Claim: Trump Will Win Pennsylvania, But 'They' Will Steal It With Voter Fraud". mediaite.com. Mediaite. Retrieved 2 November 2020.
  20. ^ Jain, Lakshya; Lee, Michael; Thomas, Armin; Lavelle, Harrison (20 September 2022). "What's Going On With Trafalgar's Polls?". Split Ticket. Retrieved 20 September 2022.
  21. ^ "On Polls, Pollsters, and Pundits". Archived from the original on 2022-11-16.
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