Thomas Schelling
Thomas Schelling | |
---|---|
PhD) | |
Doctoral advisor | Arthur Smithies Wassily Leontief James Duesenberry |
Doctoral students | A. Michael Spence[1] Eli Noam[2] Tyler Cowen |
Influences | Carl von Clausewitz, Niccolò Machiavelli |
Contributions | Focal point Egonomics |
Awards | The Frank E. Seidman Distinguished Award in Political Economy (1977)
Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences (2005) |
Information at IDEAS / RePEc | |
Academic background | |
Thesis | National income behavior: An introduction to algebraic analysis (1951) |
Thomas Crombie Schelling (April 14, 1921 – December 13, 2016) was an American economist and professor of foreign policy, national security, nuclear strategy, and arms control at the School of Public Policy at University of Maryland, College Park. He was also co-faculty at the New England Complex Systems Institute.
Schelling was awarded the 2005 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences (shared with Robert Aumann) for "having enhanced our understanding of conflict and cooperation through game theory analysis."[3]
Biography
Early years
Schelling was born on April 14, 1921, in
Career
Schelling served with the Marshall Plan in Europe, the White House, and the Executive Office of the President from 1948 to 1953.[4] He wrote most of his dissertation on national income behavior working at night while in Europe. He left government to join the economics faculty at Yale University.
In 1956, "he joined the RAND Corporation as an adjunct fellow, becoming a full-time researcher for a year after leaving Yale, and returning to adjunct status through 2002."[5] In 1958 Schelling was appointed professor of economics at Harvard. That same year, he "co-founded the Center for International Affairs, which was [later] renamed the Weatherhead Center for International Affairs."[6]
In 1969, Schelling joined Harvard's
Between 1994 and 1999, he conducted research at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), in Laxenburg, Austria.
In 1990, he left Harvard and joined the University of Maryland School of Public Policy and the University of Maryland Department of Economics.[7] In 1991, he accepted the presidency of the American Economic Association, an organization of which he was also a Distinguished Fellow.[8]
In 1995, he accepted the presidency of the Eastern Economic Association.[9]
Schelling was a contributing participant of the Copenhagen Consensus.[4][10]
Honors and awards
In 1977, Schelling received The Frank E. Seidman Distinguished Award in Political Economy.
In 1993, he was awarded the
He received honorary doctorates from Erasmus University Rotterdam in 2003, Yale University in 2009, and RAND Graduate School of Public Analysis, as well as an honorary degree from the University of Manchester in 2010.[12][9][8]
He was awarded the 2005 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences, along with Robert Aumann, for "having enhanced our understanding of conflict and cooperation through game-theory analysis."[3]
Personal life
Schelling was married to Corinne Tigay Saposs from 1947 to 1991, with whom he had four sons. Later in 1991 he married Alice M. Coleman, who brought two sons to the marriage; they became his stepsons.[13][14]
Schelling died on December 13, 2016, in Bethesda, Maryland, from complications following a hip fracture at the age of 95.[7]
Schelling's family auctioned his Nobel award medal, fetching $187,000. They donated this money to the Southern Poverty Law Center, an American 501 nonprofit legal advocacy organization specializing in civil rights and public interest litigation. Alice Schelling said her late husband had credited Smoky the Cowhorse by Will James, the winner of the Newbery Medal in 1927, as the most influential book he had read.[15]
Notable works
The Strategy of Conflict (1960)
The Strategy of Conflict, which Schelling published in 1960,[16] pioneered the study of bargaining and strategic behavior in what he refers to as "conflict behavior."[17] The Times Literary Supplement in 1995 ranked it as one of the 100 most influential books in the 50 years since 1945.[18] In this book Schelling introduced concepts such as the "focal point" and "credible commitment." In a 1961 review, International Relations scholar Morton Kaplan described the book as a "strikingly original contribution" and a "landmark in the literature."[19]
Schelling's book comprised a series of scholarly journal articles that he had published over the period 1957–1960.[19]
Schelling encourages in his work a strategic view toward conflict that is equally "rational" and "successful."[16] He believes that conflict cannot be based merely on one's intelligence but must also address the "advantages" associated with a course of action. He considers that the advantages that are gleaned should be firmly fixed in a value system that is both "explicit" and "consistent."[16]
Also, conflict has a distinct meaning. In Schelling's approach, it is not enough to defeat an opponent, but one must also seize opportunities to co-operate of which there are usually many. He points out that it is only on the rarest of occasions, in what is known as "pure conflict," that the participants' interests are implacably opposed.[16] He uses the example of "a war of complete extermination" to illustrate this phenomenon.[16]
Co-operation, if available, may take many forms and thus potentially involve everything from "deterrence, limited war, and disarmament" to "negotiation."[16] Indeed, it is through such actions that participants are left with less of a conflict and more of a "bargaining situation."[16] The bargaining itself is best thought of in terms of the other participant's actions, as any gains one might realize are highly dependent upon the "choices or decisions" of their opponent.[16]
Communication between parties, though, is another matter entirely. Verbal or written communication is known as "explicit," and involves such activities as "offering concessions."[16] What happens, though, when this type of communication becomes impossible or improbable? This is when something called "tacit maneuvers" become important.[16] Think of this as action-based communication. Schelling uses the example of one's occupation or evacuation of strategic territory to illustrate this latter communication method.
In an article celebrating Schelling's Nobel Memorial Prize for Economics,
Arms and Influence (1966)
Schelling's theories about war were extended in Arms and Influence, published in 1966.[21] According to the publisher, the book "carries forward the analysis so brilliantly begun in his earlier The Strategy of Conflict (1960) and Strategy and Arms Control (with Morton Halperin, 1961), and makes a significant contribution to the growing literature on modern war and diplomacy." Chapter headings include The Diplomacy of Violence, The Diplomacy of Ultimate Survival and The Dynamics of Mutual Alarm.
Within the work, Schelling discusses military capabilities and how they can be used as bargaining power. Instead of considering only the choices that are available on a surface level, one can think ahead to try to influence the other party to come to the desired conclusion. Specifically, Schelling mentions the actions taken by the U.S. during the Cuban and Berlin crises and how they functioned as not only preparation for war but also signals. For example, Schelling points out that the bombing of North Vietnam "is as much coercive as tactical."[22] Not only was the bombing to cripple their enemies armies, but it also served to bring Vietnam to the table for negotiations. Much of this writing was influenced largely due to Schelling's personal interest in Game Theory and its application to nuclear armaments.
Schelling's work influenced Robert Jervis.[23][24]
Micromotives and Macrobehavior (1978)
In 1969 and 1971, Schelling published widely-cited articles dealing with
Schelling's dynamics has been cited as a way of explaining variations that are found in what are regarded as meaningful differences – gender, age, race, ethnicity, language, sexual preference, and religion. A cycle of such change, once it has begun, may have a self-sustaining momentum. Schelling's 1978 book Micromotives and Macrobehavior expanded on and generalized those themes[26][27] and is often cited in the literature of agent-based computational economics.
Global warming
Schelling was involved in the
Today, little of our gross domestic product is produced outdoors, and therefore, little is susceptible to climate. Agriculture and forestry are less than 3 percent of total output, and little else is much affected. Even if agricultural productivity declined by a third over the next half-century, the per capita GNP we might have achieved by 2050 we would still achieve in 2051. Considering that agricultural productivity in most parts of the world continues to improve (and that many crops may benefit directly from enhanced photosynthesis due to increased carbon dioxide), it is not at all certain that the net impact on agriculture will be negative or much noticed in the developed world.[28]
Drawing on his experience with the
Contributions to popular culture
Stanley Kubrick read an article Schelling wrote that included a description of the Peter George novel Red Alert, and conversations between Kubrick, Schelling, and George eventually led to the 1964 movie Dr. Strangelove or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb.[29]
Schelling is also cited for the first known use of the phrase collateral damage in his May 1961 article Dispersal, Deterrence, and Damage.[30]
In his book Choice and Consequence,
See also
- Brinkmanship
- Egonomics
- Focal point (game theory) (Schelling point)
- Hobbesian trap (Schelling's dilemma)
- Internality
- Precommitment
- Strategic realism
- Vicarious problem-solving
References
- ^ Spence, A. Michael (December 8, 2001), Signaling in Retrospect and the Informational Structure of Markets (PDF), Nobel Foundation, p. 407, retrieved June 8, 2017
- ^ "Eli M. Noam". Columbia Institute for Tele-Information. Archived from the original on December 25, 2018. Retrieved October 16, 2016.
- ^ a b c "Thomas C. Schelling – Facts". www.nobelprize.org. Nobel Foundation. Retrieved December 13, 2016.
- ^ a b c "Curriculum Vitae: Thomas C. Schelling". University of Maryland School of Public Policy. 2008. Archived from the original on July 3, 2007. Retrieved September 18, 2008.
- ^ "Nobel Committee Honors Former RAND Economist Thomas Schelling". www.rand.org. Retrieved November 16, 2017.
- ^ a b "Thomas Schelling, Nobelist and game theory pioneer, 95". Harvard Gazette. December 14, 2016. Retrieved November 16, 2017.
- ^ a b Campbell, Megan (December 13, 2016). "In Memory of Thomas Schelling". publicpolicy.umd.edu. University of Maryland School of Public Policy. Archived from the original on December 31, 2016. Retrieved December 13, 2016.
- ^ a b "Honorary Doctorate for professor Thomas C. Schelling". www.eur.nl (in Dutch). Erasmus Universiteit Rotterdam. September 29, 2014. Archived from the original on November 17, 2017. Retrieved November 16, 2017.
{{cite web}}
: CS1 maint: others (link) - ^ a b "Thomas C. Schelling | NECSI". www.necsi.edu. Retrieved November 16, 2017.
- ^ "Thomas Schelling". Copenhagen Consensus. Retrieved January 16, 2016.
- ^ "NAS Award for Behavior Research Relevant to the Prevention of Nuclear War". National Academy of Sciences. Archived from the original on June 4, 2011. Retrieved February 16, 2011.
- ^ "Nobel prize winner delivers SCI annual lecture". The University of Manchester.
- ^ "Thomas C. Schelling". The Notable Names Database. 2008. Retrieved November 18, 2008.
- ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 16, 2017.
- ^ Levin, Sala (June 8, 2018). Family of Late UMD Professor Auctions Nobel Medal to Fight Hate. http://terp.umd.edu/
- ^ ISBN 978-0674840317. Retrieved September 21, 2010.
- S2CID 15861342.
- ^ Teeter, Robert. "100 Most Influential Books Since the War (TLS)". www.interleaves.org.
- ^ S2CID 144001424.
- ^ "A Nobel Laureate Who's Got Game", The Washington Post, October 12, 2005.
- ^ "Arms and Influence – Schelling, Thomas C. – Yale University Press". January 7, 2016. Archived from the original on January 7, 2016.
- ^ "Arms and Influence | Yale University Press". yalebooks.yale.edu. Retrieved November 14, 2019.
- ^ Jervis, Robert (March 4, 2020). "H-Diplo Essay 198- Robert Jervis on Learning the Scholar's Craft". H-Diplo | ISSF. Retrieved June 8, 2021.
- ^ Jervis, Robert (December 28, 2016). "Thomas C. Schelling: A Reminiscence". War on the Rocks. Retrieved December 10, 2021.
- ^ Thomas C. Schelling (1969) "Models of segregation," American Economic Review, 1969, 59(2), 488–493.
_____ (1971). "Dynamic Models of Segregation," Journal of Mathematical Sociology, 1(2), pp. 143–186. - ^ Thomas C. Schelling (1978) Micromotives and Macrobehavior, Norton. Description, preview.
- ISBN 978-0444512536.
- ^ Schelling, Thomas C. (2007). "Greenhouse Effect". In Henderson, David R. (ed.). Concise Encyclopedia of Economics (1st ed.). Library of Economics and Liberty. Retrieved December 7, 2017.
- ^ Thomas C. Schelling, 2006 prologue to 'Meteors, Mischief, and War', in Strategies of commitment and other essays, Harvard University Press, 2006.
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External links
- Thomas C. Schelling on Nobelprize.org including the Nobel Lecture on December 8, 2005 An Astonishing Sixty Years: The Legacy of Hiroshima
- IDEAS/RePEc
- Appearances on C-SPAN
- Schelling, Thomas C. (2002). "Greenhouse Effect". In
- "War and Peace in the Nuclear Age; At the Brink" an interview with Thomas Schelling, 1986.
- Official list of Schelling's publications at New England Complex Systems Institute website (PDF)
- "Thomas Schelling". JSTOR.