2004 United States Senate election in Washington
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![]() County results Murray: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% Nethercutt: 40-50% 50-60% 60-70% | |||||||||||||||||
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Elections in Washington |
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The 2004 United States Senate election in Washington was held on November 2, 2004. Incumbent
Term limits became an issue in the campaign, as Democrats seized on Nethercutt's broken term-limits pledge that he had made when he had unseated Foley in 1994. Geography was also against Nethercutt, who was severely hampered by his lack of name recognition in the more densely populated western part of the state, home to two-thirds of the state's population. Washington has not elected a Senator from east of the
Nethercutt was considered a heavy underdog from the start, and his campaign never gained much traction. In November, he lost by 12 points, receiving 43 percent of the vote to Murray's 55 percent. He only carried two counties west of the Cascades.
Major candidates
Democratic
- Patty Murray, incumbent U.S. Senator
Republican
- George Nethercutt, U.S. Representative
General election
Predictions
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
Sabato's Crystal Ball[1]
|
Likely D | November 1, 2004 |
Polling
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[2] |
Margin of error |
Patty Murray (D) |
George Nethercutt (R) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SurveyUSA | October 29–31, 2004 | 622 (LV) | ± 4% | 51% | 45% | 3% |
Strategic Vision (R) | October 29–31, 2004 | 801 (LV) | ± 3% | 50% | 42% | 8% |
Strategic Vision (R) | October 24–26, 2004 | 801 (LV) | ± 3% | 49% | 41% | 10% |
Mason-Dixon | October 25–26, 2004 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 53% | 39% | 8% |
SurveyUSA | October 23–25, 2004 | 618 (LV) | ± 4% | 55% | 41% | 4% |
Strategic Vision (R) | October 16–18, 2004 | 801 (LV) | ± 3% | 49% | 41% | 10% |
SurveyUSA | October 15–17, 2004 | 634 (LV) | ± 4% | 56% | 38% | 6% |
Elway Research | October 14–16, 2004 | 405 (RV) | ± 5% | 54% | 37% | 9% |
Strategic Vision (R) | October 4–6, 2004 | 801 (LV) | ± 3% | 49% | 41% | 10% |
SurveyUSA | October 2–4, 2004 | 640 (LV) | ± 4% | 57% | 38% | 5% |
Strategic Vision (R) | September 20–22, 2004 | 801 (LV) | ± 3% | 48% | 41% | 11% |
SurveyUSA | September 19–21, 2004 | 627 (LV) | ± 4% | 53% | 41% | 6% |
Elway Research | September 17–19, 2004 | 405 (RV) | ± 5% | 57% | 37% | 6% |
Strategic Vision (R) | September 4–6, 2004 | 801 (LV) | ± 3% | 48% | 41% | 11% |
Strategic Vision (R) | August 21–23, 2004 | 801 (LV) | ± 3% | 49% | 41% | 10% |
SurveyUSA | August 15–17, 2004 | 602 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 53% | 39% | 10% |
Strategic Vision (R) | August 9–11, 2004 | 801 (LV) | ± 3% | 49% | 40% | 11% |
SurveyUSA | Jul 31–Aug 2, 2004 | 585 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 51% | 40% | 9% |
Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin & Associates (D) | June 23–28, 2004 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 56% | 33% | 11% |
Moore Information (R) | June 23–24, 2004 | 500 (RV) | ± 4% | 51% | 39% | 10% |
Mason-Dixon (D) | June 9–11, 2004 | 625 (RV) | ± 4% | 53% | 34% | 13% |
SurveyUSA | June 1–3, 2004 | 654 (RV) | ± 4% | 49% | 34% | 17% |
Tarrance Group (R) | May 2–3, 2004 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 50.6% | 41.1% | 8.3% |
Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin & Associates (D) | April 22–27, 2004 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 54% | 31% | 15% |
Tarrance Group (R) | May 5–6, 2003 | 504 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 52% | 37% | 11% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[2] |
Margin of error |
Patty Murray (D) |
George Nethercutt (R) |
Reed Davis (R) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Elway Research | January 27–29, 2004 | 405 (V) | ± 5% | 49% | 19% | 5% | 27% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[2] |
Margin of error |
Patty Murray (D) |
Jennifer Dunn (R) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
for NRSC (R) | January 2003 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 46% | 42% | 12% |
Results
The election was not close, with Murray winning by 12.24% of the vote. Although Murray failed to win any counties in the eastern part of the state, she pulled down big margins from the western part of the state, which is significantly more populated. Specifically, Murray trounced Nethercutt in
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Patty Murray (Incumbent) | 1,549,708 | 54.98% | ||
Republican | George Nethercutt | 1,204,584 | 42.74% | ||
Libertarian | J. Mills | 34,055 | 1.21% | ||
Green
|
Mark Wilson | 30,304 | 1.08% | ||
Total votes | 2,818,651 | 100.00% | |||
Democratic hold |
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Asotin (Largest city: Clarkston)
- Ferry (Largest city: Republic)
- Kittias (Largest city: Ellensburg)
- Pend Oreille (Largest city: Newport)
- Spokane (Largest city: Spokane)
- Whitman (Largest city: Pullman)
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
See also
Notes
References
- ^ "The Final Predictions". Sabato's Crystal Ball. November 2004. Retrieved May 2, 2021.
- ^ a b c Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ "Office of the Clerk, U.S. House of Representatives".