2012 Montana gubernatorial election
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Turnout | 72.18%2.32[1] | |||||||||||||||||||
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County results Bullock: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% Hill: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Elections in Montana |
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The 2012 Montana gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2012, to elect the
Governor of Montana. Incumbent Democratic Governor Brian Schweitzer
was term-limited and could not run for re-election to a third term.
the election in Puerto Rico. Due to the close margin, media outlets did not call the race for Bullock until the next day.[3]
Democratic primary
Candidates
Declared
- Running mate: John Walsh, Brigadier general and former adjutant general in the Montana National Guard[5]
- Heather Margolis, Montana representative for community service organization ServeNext
- Running mate: Steve Nelsen, founder of the Montana Conservation Corps[6]
Withdrew
- Larry Jent, state senator[7]
Declined
- Lieutenant Governor of Montana[8]
- Carl Borgquist, president of Grasslands Renewable Energy of Bozeman[8]
- Dave Wanzenried, state senator[9]
- Pat Williams, former U.S. Representative[10]
Polling
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Steve Bullock |
Larry Jent |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | November 28–30, 2011 | 573 | ± 4.1% | 70% | 6% | — | 24% |
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Steve Bullock | 76,738 | 86.6 | |
Democratic | Heather Margolis | 11,823 | 13.4 | |
Total votes | 88,561 | 100.0 |
Republican primary
Candidates
Declared
- Bob Fanning, retired businessman[12]
- Running mate: Joel Boniek, former state representative[13]
- Former running mate:
- Neil Livingstone, terrorism and national security analyst[17]
- Running mate: Ryan Zinke, state senator[18]
- Jim Lynch, former Montana Department of Transportation director[19]
- Running mate: Al Olszewski, orthopedic surgeon and Carroll College Trustee[20]
- Running mate: Al Olszewski, orthopedic surgeon and
- Ken Miller, former state senator and former chairman of the Montana Republican Party[21]
- Running mate: Bill Gallagher, Public Service Commissioner[22]
- Jim O'Hara, Commissioner[23]
- Running mate: Scott Swingley, private investigator and former trooper in the Montana Highway Patrol[24]
- Corey Stapleton, former state senator[25]
- Running mate: Bob Keenan, former President of the Montana Senate[26]
Withdrew
- Jeff Essmann, Majority Leader of the Montana Senate[27]
- Drew Turiano, real estate investor[28][29]
Declined
- Denny Rehberg, U.S. Representative (ran for the U.S. Senate)[30]
Polling
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jeff Essmann |
Bob Fanning |
Rick Hill |
Neil Livingstone |
Jim Lynch |
Ken Miller |
Jim O'Hara |
Corey Stapleton |
Other/ Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | April 26–29, 2012 | 403 | ± 4.88% | — | 1% | 33% | 5% | 4% | 12% | 4% | 7% | 35% |
Public Policy Polling | November 28–30, 2011 | 700 | ± 3.7% | 5% | 1% | 37% | 3% | 4% | 10% | 3% | 2% | 35% |
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Rick Hill | 46,802 | 34.4 | |
Republican | Corey Stapleton | 24,661 | 18.1 | |
Republican | Ken Miller | 24,496 | 18.0 | |
Republican | Jim O'Hara | 16,653 | 12.2 | |
Republican | Neil Livingstone | 12,038 | 8.8 | |
Republican | Jim Lynch | 8,323 | 6.1 | |
Republican | Bob Fanning | 3,087 | 2.3 | |
Total votes | 136,060 | 100.0 |
General election
Candidates
- Steve Bullock (D), Montana Attorney General
- Running mate: John Walsh, Brigadier general and former adjutant general in the Montana National Guard
- Rick Hill (R), former U.S. Representative
- Running mate: Jon Sonju, state senator
- Ron Vandevender (Libertarian), businessman[31]
- Running mate: Marc Mulcahy[13]
Debate
- Complete video of debate, C-SPAN, October 10, 2012
Predictions
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[32]
|
Tossup | November 1, 2012 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[33]
|
Lean R (flip) | November 5, 2012 |
Rothenberg Political Report[34] | Tossup | November 2, 2012 |
Real Clear Politics[35]
|
Tossup | November 5, 2012 |
Polling
- Aggregate polls
Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Steve Bullock (D) |
Rick Hill (R) |
Other/Undecided [a] |
Margin |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Real Clear Politics | September 27 – November 3, 2012 | November 3, 2012 | 44.0% | 45.7% | 10.3% | Hill +1.7% |
Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Steve Bullock (D) |
Rick Hill (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | November 2–3, 2012 | 836 | ± 3.4% | 48% | 48% | 2% | 2% |
Mason-Dixon | October 29–31, 2012 | 625 | ± 4.0% | 46% | 49% | 2% | 3% |
Public Policy Polling | October 8–10, 2012 | 737 | ± 3.6% | 42% | 43% | 8% | 7% |
Montana State University | September 27–30, 2012 | 477 | ± 4.6% | 38% | 40% | 2% | 20% |
Mason-Dixon | September 17–19, 2012 | 625 | ± 4.0% | 44% | 43% | 2% | 11% |
Public Policy Polling | September 10–11, 2012 | 656 | ± 3.2% | 44% | 39% | 8% | 9% |
Public Policy Polling | April 26–29, 2012 | 934 | ± 3.2% | 39% | 39% | — | 21% |
Public Policy Polling | November 28–30, 2011 | 1,625 | ± 2.4% | 38% | 39% | — | 23% |
Public Policy Polling | June 16–19, 2011 | 819 | ± 3.4% | 37% | 39% | — | 23% |
Public Policy Polling | November 10–13, 2010 | 1,176 | ± 2.9% | 31% | 41% | — | 28% |
Hypothetical polling
With Bohlinger
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
John Bohlinger (D) |
Jeff Essmann (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | June 16–19, 2011 | 819 | ± 3.4% | 40% | 33% | — | 28% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
John Bohlinger (D) |
Rick Hill (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | June 16–19, 2011 | 819 | ± 3.4% | 39% | 40% | — | 21% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
John Bohlinger (D) |
Ken Miller (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | June 16–19, 2011 | 819 | ± 3.4% | 39% | 33% | — | 28% |
With Bullock
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Steve Bullock (D) |
Jeff Essmann (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | November 28–30, 2011 | 1,625 | ± 2.4% | 42% | 30% | — | 28% |
Public Policy Polling | June 16–19, 2011 | 819 | ± 3.4% | 38% | 33% | — | 28% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Steve Bullock (D) |
Neil Livingstone (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | November 28–30, 2011 | 1,625 | ± 2.4% | 41% | 29% | — | 30% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Steve Bullock (D) |
Ken Miller (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | April 26–29, 2012 | 934 | ± 3.2% | 41% | 35% | — | 24% |
Public Policy Polling | November 28–30, 2011 | 1,625 | ± 2.4% | 40% | 31% | — | 29% |
Public Policy Polling | June 16–19, 2011 | 819 | ± 3.4% | 38% | 34% | — | 28% |
With Jent
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Larry Jent (D) |
Rick Hill (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | November 28–30, 2011 | 1,625 | ± 2.4% | 26% | 39% | — | 35% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Larry Jent (D) |
Neil Livingstone (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | November 28–30, 2011 | 1,625 | ± 2.4% | 26% | 30% | — | 44% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Larry Jent (D) |
Ken Miller (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | November 28–30, 2011 | 1,625 | ± 2.4% | 25% | 33% | — | 42% |
With Wanzenried
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Dave Wanzenried (D) |
Jeff Essmann (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | June 16–19, 2011 | 819 | ± 3.4% | 31% | 33% | — | 36% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Dave Wanzenried (D) |
Rick Hill (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | June 16–19, 2011 | 819 | ± 3.4% | 30% | 40% | — | 30% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Dave Wanzenried (D) |
Ken Miller (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | June 16–19, 2011 | 819 | ± 3.4% | 30% | 35% | — | 35% |
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Steve Bullock | 236,450 | 48.90% | -16.57% | |
Republican | Rick Hill | 228,879 | 47.34% | +14.82% | |
Libertarian | Ron Vandevender | 18,160 | 3.76% | +1.75% | |
Total votes | 483,489 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
Democratic hold |
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Beaverhead (largest city: Dillon)
- Broadwater (largest city: Townsend)
- Carbon (largest city: Red Lodge)
- Chouteau (largest municipality: Fort Benton)
- Custer (largest city: Miles City)
- Daniels (largest city: Scobey)
- Dawson (Largest city: Glendive)
- Fallon (largest city: Baker)
- Fergus (largest city: Lewistown)
- Flathead (largest city: Kalispell)
- Golden Valley (largest city: Ryegate)
- Granite (largest city: Philipsburg)
- Jefferson (largest city: Clancy)
- Judith Basin (largest city: Stanford)
- Liberty (largest city: Chester)
- Lincoln (largest city: Libby)
- Madison (largest city: Ennis)
- McCone (largest city: Circle)
- Mineral (largest city: Superior)
- Park (largest city: Livingston)
- Phillips (largest city: Malta)
- Pondera (largest city: Conrad)
- Powell (largest city: Deer Lodge)
- Prairie (largest city: Terry)
- Ravalli (largest city: Hamilton)
- Richland (largest city: Sidney)
- Rosebud (largest city: Colstrip)
- Sanders (largest city: Thompson Falls)
- Sheridan (Largest city: Plentywood)
- Stillwater (largest city: Columbus)
- Teton (largest city: Choteau)
- Toole (largest city: Shelby)
- Treasure (largest city: Hysham)
- Valley (largest city: Glasgow)
- Wheatland (largest city: Harlowton)
- Wibaux (largest city: Wibaux)
- Yellowstone (largest municipality: Billings)
Notes
- ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
References
- ^ "Montana Voter Turnout". Montana Secretary of State - Christi Jacobsen. February 22, 2018. Retrieved May 26, 2022.
- ^ Michael Barone, et al. The Almanac of American Politics 2014 (2013) (Kindle Locations 48242-48245).
- ^ Bureau, CHARLES S. JOHNSON Gazette State (November 6, 2012). "Networks declare Bullock winner in tight race for governor". Montana Standard.
- ^ Catanese, David (September 7, 2011). "Bullock joins Montana governor's race". Politico. Retrieved September 7, 2011.
- ^ Johnson, Charles S. (March 9, 2012). "Bullock makes pick of Walsh as running mate official". Independent Record. Retrieved March 11, 2012.
- ^ Banks, Marnee (March 12, 2012). "Democrats Margolis & Nelsen enter race for MT Governor". KXLF-TV. Archived from the original on January 27, 2013. Retrieved March 14, 2012.
- ^ Johnson, Charles S. (March 8, 2012). "Jent drops out of governor's race, leaving Bullock as lone Democrat". Billings Gazette. Retrieved March 9, 2012.
- ^ a b Johnson, Charles S. (June 12, 2011). "Bohlinger, Essmann eye governor's race". Billings Gazette. Retrieved June 15, 2011.
- ^ Bureau, CHARLES S. JOHNSON Gazette State (July 7, 2011). "Wanzenried ends run for governor".
- ^ Johnson, Charles S. (September 13, 2010). "Pat Williams not running for governor". Billings Gazette. Retrieved January 17, 2011.
- ^ a b "2012 STATEWIDE PRIMARY ELECTION CANVASS" (PDF). Secretary of State of Montana. Archived from the original (PDF) on January 21, 2013. Retrieved September 24, 2012.
- ^ Johnson, Charles S. (October 4, 2011). "3 more GOP candidates running for governor". Billings Gazette. Retrieved October 5, 2011.
- ^ a b Banks, Marnee (March 12, 2012). "Long list of candidates running for U.S. House & MT Governor". KRTV. Archived from the original on January 27, 2013. Retrieved March 14, 2012.
- ^ Banks, Marnee (February 13, 2012). "MT gubernatorial candidate Fanning loses running mate". KTVQ. Archived from the original on January 19, 2015. Retrieved March 11, 2012.
- ^ Johnson, Charles S. (November 6, 2010). "Former GOP U.S. Rep. Rick Hill to run for Montana governor". Billings Gazette. Retrieved January 17, 2011.
- ^ Reece, Myers (January 18, 2012). "Rick Hill Announces Jon Sonju as Gubernatorial Running Mate". Flathead Beacon. Retrieved March 11, 2012.
- ^ "Terrorism expert files for Montana governor's race". Associated Press. February 12, 2011. Retrieved February 12, 2011.
- ^ Johnson, Charles S. (July 10, 2011). "Livingstone taps Zinke as running mate". Billings Gazette. Retrieved March 11, 2012.
- ^ "Jim Lynch announces candidacy for Governor". KTVQ. October 13, 2011. Archived from the original on October 23, 2011. Retrieved October 14, 2011.
- ^ Sherman, David (March 12, 2012). "Lynch names Olszewski as running mate in MT governor race". KRTV. Archived from the original on January 27, 2013. Retrieved March 14, 2012.
- ^ Dennison, Mike (August 9, 2010). "Republican former state senator from Laurel formally enters 2012 governor's race". Billings Gazette. Retrieved January 17, 2011.
- ^ Reece, Myers (February 6, 2012). "Ken Miller Announces Bill Gallagher as Gubernatorial Running Mate". Flathead Beacon. Retrieved March 11, 2012.
- ^ Keegan, Charlie (January 14, 2011). "Jim O'Hara Announces Candidacy for Governor". KFBB-TV. Archived from the original on July 13, 2011. Retrieved January 17, 2011.
- ^ Johnson, Charles S. (February 7, 2012). "O'Hara picks retired MHP officer as running mate". Billings Gazette. Retrieved March 11, 2012.
- ^ Johnson, Charles S. (July 19, 2010). "Stapleton bidding for governor". Billings Gazette. Retrieved January 17, 2011.
- ^ Johnson, Charles S. (February 7, 2012). "Stapleton picks Keenan for running mate". Billings Gazette. Retrieved March 11, 2012.
- ^ "Essmann drops out of GOP race for governor". Billingsgazette.com. January 27, 2012. Retrieved January 5, 2018.
- ^ [1] [dead link]
- ^ "Turiano Drops Gubernatorial Bid". Flathead Beacon. January 17, 2012. Retrieved March 11, 2021.
- ^ Johnson, Charles S. (November 11, 2010). "Rehberg focusing on current job". Billings Gazette. Retrieved January 17, 2011.
- ^ Johnson, Charles S. (March 1, 2012). "Governor candidates talk about state economy". Independent Record. Retrieved March 14, 2012.
- ^ "2012 Governor Race Ratings for November 1, 2012". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved November 30, 2018.
- ^ "PROJECTION: OBAMA WILL LIKELY WIN SECOND TERM". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Archived from the original on December 1, 2018. Retrieved November 30, 2018.
- ^ "2012 Gubernatorial Ratings". Gubernatorial Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved November 30, 2018.
- ^ "2012 Elections Map - 2012 Governor Races". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved November 30, 2018.
- ^ "2012 Statewide General Election Canvass" (PDF). Montana Secretary of State. Retrieved January 13, 2019.
External links
- Official campaign websites (Archived)