2012 Missouri gubernatorial election
Appearance
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Nixon: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 80–90% Spence: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% | |||||||||||||||||
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Elections in Missouri |
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The 2012 Missouri gubernatorial election was held on November 6, 2012, to elect the
Governor of Missouri. Incumbent Democratic Governor Jay Nixon won re-election against the Republican nominee, businessman Dave Spence, despite incumbent President Barack Obama losing Missouri on the same day to Republican nominee Mitt Romney. As of 2024[update]
, this is the last time a Democrat won the governorship of Missouri to date. This is also the last time that a governor and lieutenant governor of different opposite political parties were simultaneously elected in Missouri.
Democratic primary
Candidates
Results
The Democratic primary was held on August 8, 2012.
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Jay Nixon (incumbent) | 269,865 | 86.0% | |
Democratic | William Campbell | 25,721 | 8.2% | |
Democratic | Clay Thunderhawk | 18,228 | 5.8% | |
Total votes | 313,814 | 100.0% |
Republican primary
Candidates
- Bill Randles, businessman and corporate defense lawyer[3]
- Fred Sauer, investment executive and anti-abortion activist[1]
- Dave Spence, businessman[1]
- John Weiler[1]
Polling
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size |
Margin of error |
Bill Randles |
Fred Sauer |
Dave Spence |
John Weiler |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | August 4–5, 2012 | 590 | ± 4.0% | 15% | 12% | 42% | 3% | 29% |
Mason-Dixon | July 23–25, 2012 | 400 | ± 5.0% | 15% | 1% | 41% | 3% | 40% |
Public Policy Polling | May 24–27, 2012 | 430 | ± 4.7% | 11% | 4% | 32% | 1% | 43% |
Public Policy Polling | January 27–29, 2012 | 574 | ± 4.1% | 15% | — | 11% | — | 74% |
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Dave Spence | 333,578 | 59.9% | |
Republican | Bill Randles | 90,651 | 16.3% | |
Republican | Fred Sauer | 83,695 | 15.0% | |
Republican | John Weiler | 49,006 | 8.8% | |
Total votes | 556,930 | 100.0% |
Libertarian primary
Candidates
- Jim Higgins, former officer of the Libertarian Party of Missouri[1]
Denied ballot access
- Leonard Steinman[1]
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Libertarian | Jim Higgins | 2,500 | 100.0% | |
Total votes | 2,500 | 100.0% |
General election
Debates
- Complete video of debate, C-SPAN, September 21, 2012
Predictions
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[4]
|
Lean D | November 1, 2012 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[5]
|
Likely D | November 5, 2012 |
Rothenberg Political Report[6] | Likely D | November 2, 2012 |
Real Clear Politics[7]
|
Lean D | November 5, 2012 |
Polling
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jay Nixon (D) |
Dave Spence (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | November 2–3, 2012 | 835 | ± 3.4% | 53% | 45% | — | 2% |
SurveyUSA | October 28–November 3, 2012 | 589 | ± 4.1% | 48% | 39% | 5% | 8% |
Mason-Dixon | October 23–25, 2012 | 625 | ± 4% | 48% | 42% | — | 9% |
Public Policy Polling | October 19–21, 2012 | 582 | ± 4.1% | 51% | 40% | — | 8% |
Public Policy Polling | October 1–3, 2012 | 700 | ± 3.7% | 54% | 35% | — | 12% |
Public Policy Polling | August 20, 2012 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 46% | 37% | — | 16% |
Survey USA | August 9–12, 2012 | 585 | ± 4.1% | 51% | 37% | 5% | 6% |
Chilenski Strategies | August 8, 2012 | 663 | ± 3.8% | 53% | 39% | — | 9% |
Mason-Dixon | July 23–25, 2012 | 625 | ± 4.0% | 48% | 39% | — | 13% |
Public Policy Polling | May 24–27, 2012 | 602 | ± 4.0% | 45% | 34% | — | 21% |
Public Policy Polling | January 27–29, 2012 | 582 | ± 4.1% | 47% | 27% | — | 26% |
Hypothetical polling
- Republican primary
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Peter Kinder |
Bill Randles |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | September 9–12, 2011 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 34% | 14% | 53% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Peter Kinder |
Someone else |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | September 9–12, 2011 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 22% | 35% | 43% |
- General election
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jay Nixon (D) |
Bill Randles (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mason-Dixon | July 23–25, 2012 | 625 | ± 4.0% | 50% | 35% | — | 15% |
Public Policy Polling | May 24–27, 2012 | 602 | ± 4.0% | 46% | 32% | — | 22% |
Public Policy Polling | January 27–29, 2012 | 582 | ± 4.1% | 47% | 29% | — | 24% |
Public Policy Polling | September 9–12, 2011 | 632 | ± 3.9% | 45% | 24% | — | 30% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jay Nixon (D) |
Matt Blunt (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | September 9–12, 2011 | 632 | ± 3.9% | 50% | 37% | — | 13% |
Public Policy Polling | April 28-May 1, 2011 | 555 | ± 3.9% | 48% | 38% | — | 13% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jay Nixon (D) |
John Danforth (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | September 9–12, 2011 | 632 | ± 3.9% | 39% | 45% | — | 17% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jay Nixon (D) |
Kenny Hulshof (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | April 28-May 1, 2011 | 555 | ± 3.9% | 51% | 34% | — | 15% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jay Nixon (D) |
Peter Kinder (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | September 9–12, 2011 | 632 | ± 3.9% | 50% | 31% | — | 18% |
Public Policy Polling | April 28-May 1, 2011 | 555 | ± 3.9% | 48% | 34% | — | 18% |
Public Policy Polling | March 3–6, 2011 | 612 | ± 4.0% | 45% | 38% | — | 17% |
Public Policy Polling | Nov. 29-December 1, 2010 | 515 | ± 4.3% | 47% | 39% | — | 14% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jay Nixon (D) |
Sarah Steelman (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | Nov. 29-December 1, 2010 | 515 | ± 4.3% | 46% | 35% | — | 19% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jay Nixon (D) |
Jim Talent (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | September 9–12, 2011 | 632 | ± 3.9% | 47% | 38% | — | 14% |
Results
Nixon won by a comfortable 12.3% margin, though this was somewhat closer than his
Kansas City
came in.
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Jay Nixon (incumbent) | 1,494,056 | 54.77% | -3.63% | |
Republican | Dave Spence | 1,160,265 | 42.53% | +3.04% | |
Libertarian | Jim Higgins | 73,509 | 2.70% | +1.59% | |
Write-in | 53 | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||
Total votes | 2,727,883 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
Democratic hold |
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
- Audrain (Largest city: Mexico)
- Clark (Largest city: Kahoka)
- Knox (Largest city: Edina)
- Lewis (Largest city: Canton)
- Mississippi (Largest city: Charleston)
- Monroe (Largest city: Monroe City)
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Andrew (Largest city: Savannah)
- Atchison (Largest city: Tarkio)
- Benton (Largest city: Warsaw)
- Caldwell (Largest city: Hamilton)
- Camden (Largest city: Osage Beach)
- Carter (Largest city: Van Buren)
- Cass (Largest city: Harrisonville)
- Cedar (Largest city: El Dorado Springs)
- Crawford (Largest city: Cuba)
- Dallas (Largest city: Buffalo)
- Daviess (Largest city: Gallatin)
- Dent (Largest city: Salem)
- Douglas (Largest city: Ava)
- Gentry (Largest city: Albany)
- Howell (Largest city: West Plains)
- Laclede (Largest city: Lebanon)
- Lincoln (Largest city: Troy)
- Livingston (Largest city: Chillicothe)
- Maries (Largest city: Belle)
- Morgan (Largest city: Versailles)
- Oregon (Largest city: Thayer)
- Ozark (Largest city: Gainesville)
- Phelps (Largest city: Rolla)
- Polk (Largest city: Bolivar)
- Fort Leonard Wood)
- Ripley (Largest city: Doniphan)
- St. Clair (Largest city: Appleton City)
- Texas (Largest city: Licking)
- Vernon (Largest city: Nevada)
- Webster (Largest city: Marshfield)
By congressional district
Nixon won 5 of 8 congressional districts.[9]
District | Nixon | Spence | Representative |
---|---|---|---|
1st | 81.38% | 13.21% | Lacy Clay |
2nd | 50.67% | 47.37% | Todd Akin (112th Congress) |
Ann Wagner (113th Congress) | |||
3rd | 48.20% | 49.08% | Russ Carnahan (112th Congress) |
Blaine Luetkemeyer (113th Congress) | |||
4th | 49.16% | 47.46% | Vicky Hartzler |
5th | 66.00% | 31.20% | Emanuel Cleaver |
6th | 50.09% | 46.96% | Sam Graves |
7th | 43.75% | 53.39% | Billy Long |
8th | 48.27% | 49.06% | Jo Ann Emerson |
See also
- 2012 United States gubernatorial elections
- 2012 United States Senate election in Missouri
- 2012 United States House of Representatives elections in Missouri
- 2012 United States presidential election in Missouri
- 2012 Missouri lieutenant gubernatorial election
- 2012 Missouri Attorney General election
- 2012 Missouri State Treasurer election
- 2012 Missouri Secretary of State election
- Political party strength in Missouri
References
- ^ a b c d e f g Redden, Susan (April 2, 2012). "Susan Redden: Candidates for governor, lieutenant governor total 23". The Joplin Globe. Retrieved May 25, 2012.
- ^ "Gov. Nixon confirms he will seek re-election". Associated Press. December 16, 2010. Archived from the original on July 29, 2012. Retrieved December 16, 2010.
- ^ "Governor candidate Randles: Voters reject 'next guy in line' philosophy". August 25, 2011.
- ^ "2012 Governor Race Ratings for November 1, 2012". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved November 30, 2018.
- ^ "PROJECTION: OBAMA WILL LIKELY WIN SECOND TERM". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Archived from the original on December 1, 2018. Retrieved November 30, 2018.
- ^ "2012 Gubernatorial Ratings". Gubernatorial Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved November 30, 2018.
- ^ "2012 Elections Map - 2012 Governor Races". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved November 30, 2018.
- ^ "State of Missouri - Election Night Results".
- ^ "Daily Kos".
External links
- Elections from the Missouri Secretary of State
- Campaign sites (Archived)