Civilian casualty ratio
In
Starting in the 1980s, it has often been claimed that 90 percent of the victims of modern wars are
A wide-ranging study of civilian war deaths from 1700 to 1987 by
On the average, half of the deaths caused by war happened to civilians, only some of whom were killed by famine associated with war...The civilian percentage share of war-related deaths remained at about 50% from century to century. (p. 97)[9]
Mexican Revolution (1910–20)
Although it is estimated that over 1 million people died in the Mexican Revolution, most died from disease and hunger as an indirect result of the war. Combat deaths are generally agreed to have totaled about 250,000. According to Eckhardt, these included 125,000 civilian deaths and 125,000 combatant deaths, creating a civilian-combatant death ratio of 1:1 among combat deaths.[10][11]
World War I
Some 7 million combatants on both sides are estimated to have died during
Germany suffered 750,000 civilian dead during and after the war due to famine caused by the Allied blockade. Russia and Turkey suffered civilian casualties in the millions in the Russian Civil War and invasion of Anatolia respectively.[15] Armenia suffered up to 1.5 million civilians dead in the Armenian genocide.[16]
World War II
According to most sources,
Korean War
The median total estimated Korean civilian deaths in the Korean War is 2,730,000. The total estimated North Korean combatant deaths is 213,000 and the estimated Chinese combatant deaths is over 400,000. In addition to this the Republic of Korea combatant deaths is around 134,000 dead and the combatant deaths for the United Nations side is around 49,000 dead and missing (40,000 dead, 9,000 missing). The estimated total Korean war military dead is around 793,000 deaths. The civilian-combatant death ratio in the war is approximately 3:1 or 75%. One source estimates that 20% of the total population of North Korea perished in the war.[18]
Vietnam War
The Vietnamese government has estimated the number of Vietnamese civilians killed in the
1982 Lebanon War
In 1982,
According to the
According to Richard A. Gabriel between 1,000 and 3,000 civilians were killed in the southern campaign.[26] He states that an additional 4,000 to 5,000 civilians died from all actions of all sides during the siege of Beirut,[26] and that some 2,000 Syrian soldiers were killed during the Lebanon campaign and a further 2,400 PLO guerillas were also killed.[26] Of these, 1,000 PLO guerrillas were killed during the siege.[26] According to Gabriel the ratio of civilian deaths to combatants during the siege was about 6 to 1 but this ratio includes civilian deaths from all actions of all sides.[26]
Chechen wars
During the First Chechen War, 4,000 separatist fighters and 40,000 civilians are estimated to have died, giving a civilian-combatant ratio of 10:1. The numbers for the Second Chechen War are 3,000 fighters and 13,000 civilians, for a ratio of 4.3:1. The combined ratio for both wars is 7.6:1. Casualty numbers for the conflict are notoriously unreliable. The estimates of the civilian casualties during the First Chechen war range from 20,000 to 100,000, with remaining numbers being similarly unreliable.[27] The tactics employed by Russian forces in both wars were heavily criticized by human rights groups, which accused them of indiscriminate bombing and shelling of civilian areas and other crimes.[28][29]
NATO in Yugoslavia
In 1999, NATO intervened in the Kosovo War with a bombing campaign against Yugoslav forces, who were conducting a campaign of ethnic cleansing. The bombing lasted about 2½ months, until forcing the withdrawal of the Yugoslav army from Kosovo.
Estimates for the number of casualties caused by the bombing vary widely depending on the source. NATO unofficially claimed a toll of 5,000 enemy combatants killed by the bombardment; the Yugoslav government, on the other hand, gave a figure of 638 of its security forces killed in Kosovo.[30] Estimates for the civilian toll are similarly disparate. Human Rights Watch counted approximately 500 civilians killed by the bombing; the Yugoslav government estimated between 1,200 and 5,000.[31]
If the NATO figures are to be believed, the bombings achieved a civilian to combatant kill ratio of about 1:10, on the Yugoslav government's figures, conversely, the ratio would be between 4:1 and 10:1. If the most conservative estimates from the sources cited above are used, the ratio was around 1:1.
According to military historian and Israeli Ambassador to the United States
Afghanistan War
According to the Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs at Brown University, as of January 2015 roughly 92,000 people had been killed in the Afghanistan war, of which over 26,000 were civilians, for a civilian to combatant ratio of 1.1:4.[33]
Iraq War
According to a 2010 assessment by John Sloboda of
US drone strikes in Pakistan
The civilian casualty ratio for
Israeli–Palestinian conflict
Estimates of civilian casualties from the Israeli–Palestinian conflict differ. A 2007 report by the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) states that "Since September 2000, 5,848 people have been killed in the conflict - 4,228 have been Palestinians, 1024 were Israelis and 63 were foreigners. This report analyses the key trends of these fatalities". The report found that amongst those killed in that period, 69% of Israelis were civilians, while the report estimated 59% of Palestinian casualties were civilians.[39][40]
In May 2012 human rights advocacy group B'Tselem stated that, with respect to Palestinians killed in the West Bank, "while in the past there were complicated incidents in the West Bank that might have met the definition of "combat incidents," in recent years the incidents meeting that definition have been almost nil."[41] B'Tselem has also established a separate category for recording Palestinian police officers killed by Israel; Israel counts the Gaza police force as non-civilian when calculating the civilian casualty ratio, but such a definition is not compatible with the ICRC interpretation of international law.[41][42] The International Committee of the Red Cross regards persons as civilians if they do not fulfill a "continuous combat function".[41]
Israeli airstrikes on the Gaza Strip
The head of the
Israel in the 2008–09 Gaza War
Several analysts have attempted to calculate the
The
Journalist Yaakov Katz states in The Jerusalem Post that the ratio is 1:3 according to the Israeli figures and 60% civilians (3:2) according to B'Tselem's figures. Katz describes the IDF's civilian casualty ratio in the Gaza War and in the year preceding it as low.[34]
Katz says that over 81 percent of the 5,000 missiles the IDF dropped in the Gaza Strip during the operation were
13 Israelis were killed during the conflict, including 10 IDF soldiers (4 killed by friendly fire),[51] giving a civilian casualty ratio for Palestinian forces of 24% or 3:10.
Israel in the 2014 Gaza war
Reports of casualties in the
According to the main estimates between 2,125
In March 2015, OCHA reported that 2,220 Palestinians had been killed in the conflict, of whom 1,492 were civilians (551 children and 299 women), 605 militants and 123 of unknown status, giving Israeli forces a ratio of 3:1.[45]
Source | Total killed | Civilians | Militants | Unidentified | Percent civilians | Last updated | Notes |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GHM |
2,310[57] | ≈1,617 | ≈693 | — | 70%[63][65] | 3 January 2015[57] | Defines as a civilian anyone who is not claimed by an armed group as a member. |
UN HRC | 2,251[66] | 1,462 | 789 | — | 65% | 22 June 2015 | Total killed referenced information from Hamas GHM.[67] Cross-referenced information from GHM with other sources for civilian percentage[66] |
Israel MFA | 2,125[56] | 761[56] | 936[56] | 428[56] | 36% of the total 45% of identified[56] |
14 June 2015[56] | Uses its own intelligence reports as well as Palestinian sources and media reports to determine combatant deaths.[56][64] |
2023 Israel–Hamas war
In October 7th 2023, Hamas led an attack on Israel which killed over 1,200 Israeli citizens, of which 695 are intentionally targeted Israeli civilians, as well as 373 security forces and 71 foreign civilians,[68] a ratio of 2:1 between civilians and security forces. Following the massacre, Israel started extensive aerial bombardment of the Gaza Strip followed by a large-scale ground invasion beginning on the 27th. According to the Gaza Health Ministry, the invasion has led to the direct killings of over 29,000 people [3]. According to the Israel Defense Forces an estimated two out of every three of these deaths were civilian casualties [4][5]. According to Reuters, in February an unnamed Qatar-based Hamas official reportedly contradicted this figure, claiming the group had lost 6,000 militants, which would be a ratio of c.4 civilians dead for every 1 Hamas fighter.[69] Hamas has formally denied this figure without providing its own count.[70]
See also
- Non-combatant Casualty Value
- Casualty recording
- Collateral damage
- Asymmetric warfare
- Fourth generation warfare
- Loss exchange ratio
- Just war
Notes
- ^ Kahnert, M., D. Pitt, et al., Eds. (1983). Children and War: Proceedings of Symposium at Siuntio Baths, Finland, 1983. Geneva and Helsinki, Geneva International Peace Research Institute, IPB and Peace Union of Finland, p. 5, which states: "Of the human victims in the First World War only 5% were civilians, in the Second World War already 50%, in Vietnam War between 50 - 90 % and according to some information in Lebanon 97%. It has been appraised that in a conventional war in Europe up to 99% of the victims would be civilians."
- ^ Graça Machel, "The Impact of Armed Conflict on Children", Report of the expert of the Secretary-General, 26 Aug 1996, p. 9.
- ^ Mary Kaldor, New and Old Wars: Organized Violence in a Global Era, Polity Press, Cambridge, 1999, p. 107.
- ^ Howard Zinn, Moises Samam, Gino Strada. Just war, Charta, 2005, p. 38.
- S2CID 144816686.
- ^ Adam Roberts, "Lives and Statistics: Are 90% of War Victims Civilians?", Survival, London, vol. 52, no. 3, June–July 2010, pp. 115–35. Print edition ISSN 0039-6338. Online ISSN 1468-2699.
- ^ Ahlstrom, C. and K.-A. Nordquist (1991). Casualties of conflict: report for the world campaign for the protection of victims of war. Uppsala, Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University.
- ^ Sivard, R. L. (1991). World Military and Social Expenditures 1991. Washington DC, World Priorities, Inc. Vol. 14, pp 22-25.
- ^ Eckhardt, W. "Civilian deaths in wartime." Security Dialogue 20(1): 89-98. Also at [1]
- ^ Twentieth Century Atlas – Death Tolls. Users.erols.com. Retrieved 2010-11-28.
- ^ Missing Millions: The human cost of the Mexican Revolution, 1910–1930. Hist.umn.edu. Retrieved 2010-11-28.
- ^ Urlanis, Boris, War and Population, pp. 209 and 268, rounded off.
- ISBN 978-0-8493-1434-6.
- ISBN 978-1-5924-0315-8.
- ^ ISBN 978-0-415-22954-8.
- ^ Urlanis, Boris, War and Population, p. 278
- ^ Sadowski, p. 134. See the World War II casualties article for a detailed breakdown of casualties.
- ^ Deane, p. 149.
- ^ "20 Years After Victory"[permanent dead link], Philip Shenon, clipping from the Vietnam Center and Archive website.
- ^ "Table 6.1A - Vietnam Democide Estimates Sources and Calculations". University of Hawaii. Retrieved 2014-01-05.
- ISBN 978-0-313-36578-2.
- ^ Hartley et al., pp. 91-92.
- ^ Layoun et al, p. 134.
- ^ Washington Post, November 16, 1984
- S2CID 220910633.
- ^ ISBN 0-8090-7454-0
- ISBN 9780814797099.
- ^ "Russian Federation - Human Rights Developments", Human Rights Watch report, 1996.
- ^ Russian Federation 2001 Report Archived November 14, 2007, at the Wayback Machine Amnesty International
- ^ Larson, p. 71.
- ^ Larson, p. 65.
- ^ Michael Oren, UN report a victory for terror, Boston Globe 24-09-2009
- ^ "Afghan Civilians | Costs of War Archived 2013-06-16 at the Wayback Machine
- ^ a b c d Katz, Yaakov (2010-10-29). "Analysis: Lies, leaks, death tolls & statistics". The Jerusalem Post.
- ^ "The War in Iraq: 10 years and counting". Iraq Body Count. Retrieved 13 July 2014.
- ^ "Pakistanis protest civilian deaths in U.S. drone attacks" Archived 2010-12-12 at the Wayback Machine, Saeed Shah, mcclatchy.com, 2010-12-10.
- ^ Daniel L. Byman, Do Targeted Killings Work?, Brookings 14-07-2009
- ^ "The Year of the Drone: An Analysis of U.S. Drone Strikes in Pakistan, 2004-2012" Archived August 30, 2011, at the Wayback Machine, New America Foundation. Retrieved 2012-10-24.
- ^ "Israeli-Palestinian Fatalities Since 2000 - Key Trends". United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs. 2007-08-31. Archived from the original on 2021-08-01. Retrieved 2023-10-19.
- International Policy Institute for Counter-Terrorism. Article is here [2] Archived 2015-03-05 at the Wayback Machinealso.
- ^ a b c B'Tselem, Explanation of statistics on fatalities. Accessed March 2014
- ^ Gaza conflict: Who is a civilian?. Heather Sharp, BBC, 5 January 2009
- ^ Barak Ravid (14 January 2008). "Haaretz probe: Shin Bet count of Gaza civilian deaths is too low". Haaretz.
- ^ "Pinpoint attacks on Gaza more precise". Amos Harel, Haaretz, 30 December 2007
- ^ OCHAMarch 2015.
- ^ "Hamas admits 600-700 of its men were killed in Cast Lead Israel News". Haaretz. 2010-11-09. Retrieved 2014-01-05.
- ^ "Hamas says 300 fighters killed in Gaza war". Yahoo News. 2010-11-02. Archived from the original on 2010-11-06.
- ^ "Majority of Palestinians Killed in Operation Cast Lead: Terror Operatives Archived 2011-05-20 at the Wayback Machine," IDF Research Department
- ^ Ben-Dror Yemini's article translated from Maariv, "How Many Civilians Were Killed in Gaza?"
- ^ Operation Cast Lead, 27 Dec. '08 to 18 Jan. '09, B'Tselem
- ^ a b Fatalities during Operation Cast Lead, B'Tselem
- ^ "Report of the United Nations Fact Finding Mission on the Gaza Conflict" (PDF). London: United Nations Human Rights Council. Retrieved September 15, 2009.
- ^ Gordon, Evelyn (2010-10-25). "WikiLeaks and the Gaza War". Commentary.
- ^ Farhi, Paul (4 August 2014). "Reporters grapple with politics, erratic sources in reporting Israeli/Gaza death toll". The Washington Post. Retrieved 12 August 2014.
- ^ Reuben, Anthony (11 August 2014). "Caution needed with Gaza casualty figures". BBC News. Retrieved 12 August 2014.
- ^ Israel Ministry of Foreign Affairs, 14 June 2015
- ^ a b c d 'Ministry: Death toll from Gaza offensive topped 2,310,' Archived 2015-01-11 at the Wayback Machine Ma'an News Agency 3 January 2015.
- ^ a b "Statistics: Victims of the Israeli Offensive on Gaza since 8 July 2014". Pchrgaza.org. Archived from the original on 26 June 2015. Retrieved 27 August 2014.
- Defence for Children International-Palestine, Ramallah, 16 April 2015.
- ^ Israeli child 'killed by rocket fired from Gaza', BBC
- ^ a b "Occupied Palestinian Territory: Gaza Emergency" (PDF). 4 September 2014. Archived from the original (PDF) on 13 September 2014. Retrieved 4 September 2014.
- ^ Hartman, Ben (28 August 2014). "50 days of Israel's Gaza operation, Protective Edge – by the numbers". Jerusalem Post.
- ^ a b "Islamic Jihad: 121 of our fighters killed in Gaza". The Times of Israel. Retrieved 30 September 2014.
- ^ a b Laub, Karin; AlHou, Yousur (8 August 2014). "In Gaza, dispute over civilian vs combatant deaths". Yahoo News. Associated Press. Retrieved 29 August 2014.
- ^ "Hamas flexes muscles with Gaza drone flight". Al Arabiya. 14 December 2014.
- ^ a b "Report of the detailed findings of the Commission of Inquiry on the 2014 Gaza Conflict".
- ^ P.149: Palestinian Ministry of Health, quoted in A/HRC/28/80/Add.1, para. 24.
- ^ "Israel social security data reveals true picture of Oct 7 deaths". France 24. 15 December 2023.
- ^ Nakhoul, Samia; Saul, Jonathan; Pamuk, Humeyra (2024-02-19). "Rafah attack: How Israel plans to hit Hamas and scale back war". Reuters.
A Hamas official based in Qatar told Reuters that the group estimated it had lost 6,000 fighters during the four-month-old conflict, half the 12,000 Israel says it has killed.
- ^ "Israel Gaza: Checking Israel's claim to have killed 10,000 Hamas fighters". 2024-02-29. Retrieved 2024-03-11.
References
- Anstrom, Jan; Duyvesteyn, Isabelle (2004): Rethinking the Nature of War, pp. 72-80, Routledge, ISBN 978-0-415-35461-5.
- Deane, Hugh (1999): The Korean War: 1945-1953, p. 149, China Books & Periodicals, ISBN 978-0-8351-2644-1.
- Hartley, Cathy et al (2004): Survey of Arab-Israeli Relations, p. 91, Routledge, ISBN 978-1-85743-261-9.
- Larson, Eric V. (2007): Misfortunes of War: Press and Public Reactions to Civilian Deaths in Wartime, pp. 65, 71, RAND Corp., ISBN 978-0-8330-3897-5.
- Layoun, Mary N. et al (2001): Wedded to the Land? Gender, Boundaries, & Nationalism in Crisis, p. 134, Duke University Press, ISBN 978-0-8223-2545-1.
- Mattar, Philip: (2005): Encyclopedia Of The Palestinians, p. 47, Facts on File, ISBN 978-0-8160-5764-1.
- Sadowski, Yahya M. (1998): The Myth of Global Chaos, p. 134, Brookings Institution Press, ISBN 978-0-8157-7664-2.
- Snow, Donald M. (1996): Uncivil Wars: International Security and the New Internal Conflicts, pp. 64-66, Lynne Rienner Publishers, ISBN 978-1-55587-655-5.
Further reading
- Dumas, Samuel; Vedel-Petersen, K. O. (1923). "Chapter VII: The mortality of the civilian population". In Westergaard, Harald (ed.). Losses of Life Caused by War. Oxford: Clarendon Press.