Next Valencian regional election

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Next Valencian regional election
← 2023 No later than 27 June 2027
All 99 seats in the Corts Valencianes
50 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
Leader Carlos Mazón Diana Morant Joan Baldoví
Party PP PSPV–PSOE Compromís
Leader since 3 July 2021 23 March 2024 13 February 2023
Leader's seat Alicante — Valencia
Last election 40 seats, 35.7% 31 seats, 28.7% 15 seats, 14.5%
Current seats 40 31 15
Seats needed 10 19 35
 
Leader Ana Vega
Party Vox
Leader since 28 June 2023
Leader's seat Alicante
Last election 13 seats, 12.6%
Current seats 13
Seats needed 37
Incumbent President

Carlos Mazón
PP



The next Valencian regional election will be held no later than Sunday, 27 June 2027, to elect the 12th Corts of the Valencian Community. All 99 seats in the Corts will be up for election.

Overview

Electoral system

The

Spanish Constitution and the Valencian Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president.[1] Voting for the Corts is on the basis of universal suffrage
, which comprises all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in the Valencian Community and in full enjoyment of their political rights.

The 99 members of the Corts Valencianes are elected using the

threshold of five percent of valid votes—which includes blank ballots—being applied regionally. Seats are allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Alicante, Castellón and Valencia, with each being allocated an initial minimum of 20 seats and the remaining 39 being distributed in proportion to their populations (provided that the seat-to-population ratio in any given province does not exceed three times that of any other).[1][2]

As a result of the aforementioned allocation, each Corts constituency is entitled the following seats:

Seats Constituencies
40 Valencia
35 Alicante
24 Castellón

Election date

The term of the Corts Valencianes expires four years after the date of their previous election, unless they are dissolved earlier. The election decree shall be issued no later than the twenty-fifth day prior to the date of expiry of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Journal of the Valencian Government (DOGV), with election day taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication. The previous election was held on 28 May 2023, which meant that the legislature's term will expire on 28 May 2027. The election decree must be published in the DOGV no later than 4 May 2027, with the election taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication, setting the latest possible election date for the Corts on Sunday, 27 June 2027.[1][2][3]

The president has the prerogative to dissolve the Corts Valencianes and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence is in process. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Corts are to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called.[1]

Parliamentary composition

The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the Corts at the present time.[4]

Current parliamentary composition
Groups Parties Legislators
Seats Total
People's Parliamentary Group PP 40 40
Socialist Parliamentary Group PSPV–PSOE 31 31
Commitment Parliamentary Group Compromís 15 15
Vox Valencian Courts Parliamentary Group Vox 13 13

Parties and candidates

The electoral law allowed for

federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they sought election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.[2][3]

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which contested the election:

Candidacy Parties and
alliances 		Leading candidate Ideology Previous result Gov. Ref.
Votes (%) Seats
PP
List
 Carlos Mazón Conservatism
Christian democracy 		35.75% 40 checkY
PSPV–PSOE
List
 Diana Morant Social democracy 28.70% 31 ☒N [5]
[6]
Compromís
List
 Joan Baldoví Valencian nationalism
Eco-socialism
Green politics 		14.51% 15 ☒N
Vox
List
 Ana Vega Right-wing populism
Ultranationalism
National conservatism 		12.57% 10 checkY [7]
Unides
Podem–EUPV
List
TBD
 Left-wing populism
Direct democracy
Democratic socialism 		3.57% 0 ☒N

Opinion polls

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Voting intention estimates

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 50 seats were required for an

absolute majority in the Corts Valencianes
.

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Turnout PP PSPV Compromís Vox Lead
Demoscopia y Servicios/ESdiario[p 1] 20–22 Mar 2024 1,200 63.0 41.1
46 		26.8
28 		[a] 10.2
9 		– 16.2
16 		14.3
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 2] 29 Jan–26 Feb 2024 1,450 ? 35.8
38 		30.2
33 		16.7
16 		12.1
12 		1.5
0 		– 5.6
Demoscopia y Servicios/ESdiario[p 3] 15–21 Dec 2023 1,200 63.0 40.8
45 		27.2
29 		[a] 10.2
10 		– 15.8
15 		13.6
SocioMétrica/PP[p 4] 10–13 Oct 2023 2,500 ? ?
43 		?
33 		?
11 		?
12 		– – ?
Demoscopia y Servicios/ESdiario[p 5] 6–7 Oct 2023 1,200 ? 39.3
42 		28.1
29 		[a] 11.3
11 		– 17.4
17 		11.2
2023 general election 23 Jul 2023 — 71.5 34.9
(36) 		32.1
(33) 		[a] 15.6
(16) 		[a] 15.2
(14) 		2.8
2023 regional election 28 May 2023 — 67.0 35.7
40 		28.7
31 		14.5
15 		12.6
13 		3.6
0 		– 7.0

Preferred President

The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become president of the Valencian Government.

Notes

  1. ^ a b c d e Within Compromís–Sumar.

References

Opinion poll sources
  1. ^ "Barómetro Primavera 2024: El PP de Mazón saca más que toda la izquierda junta". ESdiario (in Spanish). 24 March 2024.
  2. ^ "EP Com. Valenciana (28feb): Mazón seguiría al frente de la Generalitat". Electomanía (in Spanish). 28 February 2024.
  3. ^ "Barómetro invierno 2023: El PP de Carlos Mazón se dispara a los 45 escaños". ESdiario (in Spanish). 30 December 2023.
  4. ^ a b "Cien días de Gobierno de Mazón: el PPCV gana tres escaños y Compromís se desploma". Las Provincias (in Spanish). 27 October 2023.
  5. ^ "Encuesta 9 d'Octubre: Carlos Mazón consolida el cambio y el PP sube 3 puntos". ESdiario (in Spanish). 9 October 2023.
Other
  1. ^ a b c d Ley Orgánica 5/1982, de 1 de julio, de Estatuto de Autonomía de la Comunidad Valenciana (Organic Law 1) (in Spanish). 1 July 1982. Retrieved 25 November 2023.
  2. ^ a b c Ley 1/1987, de 31 de marzo, Electoral Valenciana (Law 2) (in Spanish). 31 March 1987. Retrieved 17 March 2017.
  3. ^ a b Ley Orgánica 5/1985, de 19 de junio, del Régimen Electoral General (Organic Law 5) (in Spanish). 19 June 1985. Retrieved 25 November 2023.
  4. ^ "Grupos parlamentarios". Corts Valencianes (in Spanish). Retrieved 25 November 2023.
  5. ^ Bono, Ferran (16 December 2023). "Ximo Puig renuncia al liderazgo de los socialistas valencianos y convoca un congreso extraordinario". El País (in Spanish). Valencia. Retrieved 17 December 2023.
  6. ^ "El congreso extraordinario del PSPV proclama a Diana Morant como secretaria general". elDiario.es (in Spanish). Valencia. 23 March 2024. Retrieved 2 April 2024.
  7. ^ Caparrós, Alberto (28 June 2023). "Vox constituye su grupo parlamentario en las Cortes Valencianas y mantiene como portavoz a Ana Vega". ABC (in Spanish). Valencia. Retrieved 25 November 2023.
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