Next Castilian-Manchegan regional election

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Next Castilian-Manchegan regional election
← 2023 No later than 23 May 2027
All 33 seats in the Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha
17 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
Leader Emiliano García-Page
Francisco Núñez
 David Moreno
Party PSOE PP Vox
Leader since 26 February 2012 7 October 2018 26 December 2022
Leader's seat Toledo Toledo Toledo
Last election 17 seats, 45.0% 12 seats, 33.7% 4 seats, 7.0%
Current seats 17 12 4
Seats needed In majority 5 13
Incumbent President

Emiliano García-Page
PSOE



The next Castilian-Manchegan regional election will be held no later than Sunday, 23 May 2027, to elect the 12th Cortes of the autonomous community of Castilla–La Mancha. All 33 seats in the Cortes will be up for election.

Overview

Electoral system

The

Spanish Constitution and the Castilian-Manchegan Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president.[1] Voting for the Cortes is on the basis of universal suffrage
, which comprises all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Castilla–La Mancha and in full enjoyment of their political rights.

The 33 members of the Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha are elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with an electoral threshold of three percent of valid votes—which includes blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Seats are allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Albacete, Ciudad Real, Cuenca, Guadalajara and Toledo, with each being allocated an initial minimum of three seats and the remaining 18 being distributed in proportion to their populations.[1][2]

As a result of the aforementioned allocation, each Cortes constituency is entitled the following seats:

Seats Constituencies
9 Toledo
7 Albacete, Ciudad Real
5 Cuenca, Guadalajara

The use of the D'Hondt method may result in a higher effective threshold, depending on the

district magnitude.[3]

Election date

The term of the Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha expires four years after the date of their previous election. Elections to the Cortes are fixed for the fourth Sunday of May every four years. The previous election was held on 28 May 2023, setting the election date for the Cortes on Sunday, 23 May 2027.[1][2][4]

The president has the prerogative to dissolve the Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence is in process, no nationwide election is due and some time requirements are met: namely, that dissolution does not occur either during the first legislative session or within the legislature's last year ahead of its scheduled expiry, nor before one year had elapsed since a previous dissolution. Any snap election held as a result of these circumstances will not alter the period to the next ordinary election, with elected deputies merely serving out what remains of their four-year terms. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the candidate from the party with the highest number of seats is to be deemed automatically elected.[1]

Parliamentary composition

The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups at the present time.[5]

Current parliamentary composition
Groups Parties Legislators
Seats Total
Socialist Parliamentary Group PSOE 17 17
People's Parliamentary Group PP 12 12
Vox Parliamentary Group Vox 4 4

Parties and candidates

The electoral law allows for

federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election are required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors need to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they seek election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.[2][4]

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which will likely contest the election:

Candidacy Parties and
alliances 		Leading candidate Ideology Previous result Gov. Ref.
Votes (%) Seats
PSOE
List
 Emiliano García-Page Social democracy 45.04% 17 checkY
PP
List
Francisco Núñez
 Conservatism
Christian democracy 		33.65% 12 ☒N
Vox
List
 David Moreno Right-wing populism
Ultranationalism
National conservatism 		12.83% 4 ☒N
Unidas
Podemos
CLM
List
 José Luis García Gascón Left-wing populism
Direct democracy
Democratic socialism 		4.16% 0 ☒N

Opinion polls

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Voting intention estimates

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 17 seats are required for an

absolute majority in the Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha
.

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Turnout PSOE PP Vox
Podemos 		CS EV Sumar Lead
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 1] 29 Jan–26 Feb 2024 1,340 ? 47.7
19 		34.7
13 		10.8
1 		0.7
0 		1.0
0 		– 2.9
0 		13.0
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 2] 24 Dec–28 Jan 2024 1,340 ? 47.4
19 		34.5
13 		11.2
1 		0.7
0 		1.0
0 		0.0
0 		3.0
0 		12.9
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 3] 25 Nov–23 Dec 2023 1,340 ? 47.6
19 		34.2
13 		11.1
1 		0.7
0 		1.0
0 		0.0
0 		3.2
0 		13.4
2023 general election 23 Jul 2023 — 73.0 34.2
(13) 		38.9
(14) 		17.8
(6) 		[a] – – 7.4
(0) 		4.7
2023 regional election 28 May 2023 — 69.6 45.0
17 		33.7
12 		12.8
4 		4.2
0 		1.0
0 		0.3
0 		– 11.3

Notes

  1. ^ Within Sumar.

References

Opinion poll sources
  1. ^ "Page mejoraría respecto al 28M y reforzaría su mayoría en Castilla-La Mancha de celebrarse elecciones". El Digital CLM (in Spanish). 4 March 2024.
  2. ^ "ElectoPanel C-LM: Page no se inmuta y conservaría la absoluta". Electomanía (in Spanish). 31 January 2024.
  3. ^ "El PSOE ampliaría su mayoría absoluta en Castilla-La Mancha". La Tribuna de Toledo (in Spanish). 26 December 2023.
Other
  1. ^ a b c d Ley Orgánica 9/1982, de 10 de agosto, de Estatuto de Autonomía de Castilla-La Mancha (Organic Law 9) (in Spanish). 10 August 1982. Retrieved 15 September 2017.
  2. ^ a b c Ley 5/1986, de 23 de diciembre, electoral de Castilla-La Mancha (Law 5) (in Spanish). 23 December 1986. Retrieved 15 September 2017.
  3. ^ Gallagher, Michael (30 July 2012). "Effective threshold in electoral systems". Trinity College, Dublin. Archived from the original on 30 July 2017. Retrieved 22 July 2017.
  4. ^ a b Ley Orgánica 5/1985, de 19 de junio, del Régimen Electoral General (Organic Law 5) (in Spanish). 19 June 1985. Retrieved 8 April 2023.
  5. ^ "Grupos parlamentarios". Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha (in Spanish). Retrieved 23 April 2024.
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