Opinion polling for the 2007 Scottish Parliament election
This is a list of opinion polls for the
Constituency vote
Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Pollster/client | Date(s) conducted |
Lab | SNP | Con | Lib Dem | SSP | Green | Others |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2007 Scottish Parliament election | 32.2% | 32.9% | 16.6% | 16.2% | - | - | - | |
YouGov/The Daily Telegraph[dead link] | 2 May 2007 | 31% | 37% | 13% | 14% | - | - | 5% |
ICM/The Guardian/The Scotsman | 30 April 2007 | 32% | 34% | 13% | 16% | - | - | 5% |
Populus/The Times | 30 April 2007 | 29% | 33% | 13% | 15% | - | - | 10% |
YouGov/Daily Telegraph | 26 April 2007 | 30% | 39% | 13% | 15% | - | - | 4% |
YouGov/ESRC | 23 April 2007 | 30% | 38% | 12% | 15% | - | - | - |
YouGov/Sunday Times | 20 April 2007 | 30% | 37% | 14% | 15% | - | - | 4% |
mruk/Herald | 19 April 2007 | 34% | 38% | 11% | 13% | - | - | - |
Populus/Times | 17 April 2007 | 30% | 34% | 13% | 18% | - | - | 6% |
Scottish Opinion/Mail on Sunday | 15 April 2007 | 35% | 32% | 13% | 15% | - | - | - |
ICM/Scotsman | 3 April 2007 | 27% | 32% | 13% | 19% | 5% | - | 4% |
TNS System Three/STV | 1 April 2007 | 34% | 39% | 13% | 11% | - | - | 3% |
YouGov/Daily Telegraph | 28 March 2007 | 29% | 35% | 13% | 14% | - | - | 9% |
mruk/Herald | 27 March 2007 | 38% | 34% | 10% | 15% | - | - | 3% |
Scottish Opinion/Daily Mail | 26 March 2007 | 28% | 34% | 11% | 11% | - | 9% | - |
Populus/Times | 25 March 2007 | 28% | 38% | 14% | 15% | - | - | 6% |
ICM/Scotsman | 26 February 2007 | 29% | 34% | 16% | 16% | 1% | - | - |
ICM/Scotsman | 29 January 2007 | 31% | 33% | 13% | 17% | 3% | - | 3% |
YouGov/Sunday Times | 12 January 2007 | 29% | 35% | 13% | 18% | 1% | 2% | 2% |
YouGov/Channel 4 | 8 January 2007 | 31% | 33% | 14% | 14% | 1% | 5% | 4% |
ICM/Scotsman | 23 November 2006 | 29% | 34% | 13% | 17% | 3% | 2% | 2% |
ICM/Scotsman | 30 October 2006 | 30% | 32% | 14% | 15% | 4% | 3% | 3% |
Scottish Opinion/Sunday Mail | 20 October 2006 | 32% | 35% | 11% | 16% | 2% | - | 2% |
YouGov/Sunday Times | 7 September 2006 | 30% | 29% | 14% | 18% | 2% | 5% | 4% |
TNS System Three/Herald[dead link] | 29 August 2006 | 36% | 28% | 12% | 17% | 4% | 3% | - |
TNS System Three/Herald[dead link] | 1 August 2006 | 37% | 29% | 13% | 14% | 3% | 2% | - |
TNS System Three/Herald[dead link] | 4 July 2006 | 37% | 31% | 11% | 14% | 3% | 3% | - |
Ipsos MORI | 1 July 2006 | 28% | 30% | 15% | 19% | 1% | 4% | 3% |
2003 Scottish Parliament election | 34.9% | 23.8% | 16.5% | 15.1% | 6.2% | - | 3.5% |
Regional vote
Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Pollster/client | Date(s) conducted |
Lab | SNP | Con | Lib Dem | Green | SSP | Others |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2007 Scottish Parliament election | 29.2% | 31.0% | 13.9% | 11.3% | 4.0% | 0.6% | ||
YouGov/The Daily Telegraph[dead link] | 2 May 2007 | 27% | 32% | 13% | 10% | 9% | - | 9% |
ICM/The Guardian/The Scotsman | 30 April 2007 | 29% | 30% | 13% | 16% | 4% | 3% | 5% |
Populus/The Times | 30 April 2007 | 28% | 31% | 14% | 15% | 4% | 1% | 7% |
YouGov/Daily Telegraph | 26 April 2007 | 27% | 31% | 13% | 11% | 9% | 3% | 7% |
YouGov/ESRC | 23 April 2007 | 27% | 32% | 14% | 12% | - | - | - |
YouGov/The Sunday Times | 20 April 2007 | 28% | 35% | 13% | 13% | - | - | 11% |
mruk/The Herald | 19 April 2007 | 36% | 37% | 11% | 11% | 3% | - | - |
Populus/The Times | 17 April 2007 | 27% | 34% | 14% | 18% | 3% | 1% | 3% |
Scottish Opinion/Mail on Sunday | 15 April 2007 | 34% | 31% | 12% | 13% | 5% | - | - |
ICM/Scotsman | 3 April 2007 | 27% | 31% | 12% | 17% | 5% | 5% | 3% |
TNS System Three/STV | 1 April 2007 | 25% | 36% | 11% | 13% | 6% | 3% | 7% |
YouGov/The Daily Telegraph | 28 March 2007 | 27% | 33% | 15% | 12% | 6% | 2% | 5% |
mruk/The Herald | 27 March 2007 | 37% | 35% | 10% | 14% | 3% | - | 1% |
Scottish Opinion/Daily Mail | 26 March 2007 | 28% | 32% | 10% | 11% | 10% | - | - |
Populus/The Times | 25 March 2007 | 30% | 35% | 14% | 14% | 4% | 1% | 2% |
ICM/The Scotsman | 26 February 2007 | 28% | 32% | 15% | 17% | 4% | 2% | - |
ICM/The Scotsman | 29 January 2007 | 27% | 33% | 14% | 17% | 5% | 3% | 2% |
YouGov/The Sunday Times | 12 January 2007 | 30% | 32% | 14% | 14% | 5% | 1% | 4% |
YouGov/Channel 4 | 8 January 2007 | 28% | 33% | 15% | 11% | 7% | 1% | 4% |
ICM/Scotsman | 23 November 2006 | 26% | 31% | 12% | 19% | 6% | 4% | 2% |
ICM/Scotsman | 30 October 2006 | 28% | 28% | 14% | 17% | 6% | 4% | 3% |
Scottish Opinion/Sunday Mail | 20 October 2006 | 25% | 28% | 11% | 26% | 4% | 5% | 1% |
YouGov/The Sunday Times | 7 September 2006 | 27% | 29% | 14% | 15% | 8% | 2% | 5% |
TNS System Three/The Herald[dead link] | 29 August 2006 | 28% | 27% | 11% | 19% | 8% | 6% | - |
TNS System Three/The Herald[dead link] | 1 August 2006 | 29% | 32% | 10% | 15% | 8% | 4% | - |
TNS System Three/Herald[dead link] | 4 July 2006 | 29% | 33% | 9% | 17% | 5% | 5% | - |
Ipsos MORI | 1 July 2006 | 26% | 28% | 16% | 19% | 6% | 1% | 4% |
2003 Scottish Parliament election | 29.3% | 20.9% | 15.5% | 11.8% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 9.0% |
Seat predictions
The Scotsman stated that the findings of their 3 April poll would produce a seat distribution as follows: SNP 44 MSPs (+17), Labour 39 MSPs (-11), Liberal Democrats 24 MSPs (+7), Conservative 15 MSPs (-3).
The Sunday Times (12 January) stated that the findings of their poll would produce a seat distribution as follows: Labour 42 MSPs (-8), SNP 38 MSPs (+11), Liberal Democrats 19 MSPs (+2), Conservative 17 MSPs (-1), Greens 9 MSPs (+2), others 4 MSPs (-6).
Constitutional issue
Several polls were carried out on whether voters would support independence for Scotland, a key issue in this election and a central policy of the SNP. However, the results of such polls have historically been proven to be sensitive to the wording of the question used.
- On 10 September 2006, The Sunday Times Scotland published an opinion poll[1] conducted by YouGov. 1176 respondents were interviewed between 5 September and 7 September 2006.[2] The survey found that 44% were in favour of Scottish independencewhen asked "If there were a referendum tomorrow on whether Scotland should become an independent country, separate from the rest of the United Kingdom, how would you be inclined to vote?" 42% were against, and 15% did not know. 64% were in favour of giving the Scottish Parliament more powers, with 19% disagreeing.
- A September 2006 poll by the research agency YouGov showed that 44% of respondents said they would back a separate Scotland in an independence referendum compared with 42% who did not.[3][4][1]
- A poll by The Scotsman in October 2006 suggested that 51% of Scots would be in favour of independence, with 39% against.[5]
- A Daily Telegraph poll showed that a significant proportion of Britons would accept the breakup of the UK.[6]
- On 1 November 2006, ICM. The survey found that 51% were in favour of independence, with 37% against.
When polls give three options, including an option for greater devolution but stopping short of independence, support for full independence is much lower. In a poll by The Times, published on 20 April 2007, given a choice between independence, the status quo, or greater powers for the Scottish Parliament within the United Kingdom, the latter option had majority support (56%) with only 22% supporting full independence.[8] Even among SNP voters, more (47%) supported a more powerful Parliament than full independence (45%).
Other issues
On 4 April 2007, the BBC published the findings of a poll it had commissioned from
3.
4. Local hospitals
6.
7.
8. Buses/trains (not roads)
9. Scrap
10.
References
- ^ The Sunday Times Scotland. 10 September 2006. Archived from the originalon 10 March 2007.
- ^ "YouGov / Sunday Times (Scotland) Survey Results" (PDF). YouGov. 7 September 2006. Archived from the original (PDF) on 2 November 2006.
- ^ Allardyce, Jason (10 September 2006). "Support doubles for Scottish independence". The Sunday Times. Archived from the original on 12 March 2007.
- ^ Davie, Edward (10 September 2006). "Support for Scottish independence rises". Epolitix. Archived from the original on 30 September 2007.
- ^ Mulholland, Hélène; Tempest, Matthew (2 November 2006). "Majority in Scotland wants independence, says poll". The Guardian.
- ^ Hennessy, Patrick; Kite, Melissa (27 November 2006). "Britain wants UK break up, poll shows". The Daily Telegraph. Retrieved 27 January 2022.
- ^ "Vital gains forecast for SNP in swing from Labour". The Scotsman. 1 November 2006. Archived from the original on 12 July 2012. Retrieved 29 November 2007.
- ^ Miller, Bill (20 April 2007). "How SNP could win and lose at the same time". The Times.
- ^ "Voters get behind public services". BBC News. 4 April 2007.
- ^ "Scottish Omnibus Fieldwork Dates: March 29th-31st 2007" (PDF). ICM Research.