2011 United Kingdom Alternative Vote referendum
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The United Kingdom
The
This was only the second UK-wide referendum to be held (the first was the EC referendum in 1975) and the first such to be overseen by the Electoral Commission. It is to date the only UK-wide referendum to be held on an issue not related to the European Communities or the European Union, and is also the first to have been not merely consultative: it committed the government to give effect to its decision.[1]
All registered electors over 18 (British, Irish and Commonwealth citizens living in the UK and enrolled British citizens living outside)[2] – including members of the House of Lords (who cannot vote in UK general elections) – were entitled to take part.
On a turnout of 42.2 percent, 68 percent voted 'No' and 32 percent voted 'Yes'. Ten of the 440 local voting areas recorded 'Yes' votes above 50 per cent: four were Oxford, Cambridge, Edinburgh Central and Glasgow Kelvin, with the remaining six being in London.[3]
History
Historical context
The
In 1950, all constituencies became single-member and all votes non-transferable.
Whilst out of power, the Labour Party set up a working group to examine electoral reform. The resulting
After winning the 1997 general election, the new Labour government consequently set up the Jenkins Commission into electoral reform, supported by the Liberal Democrats, the third party in British politics in recent years and long supporters of proportional representation. (The Commission chair, Roy Jenkins, was a Liberal Democrat peer and former Labour minister.) The commission reported in September 1998 and proposed the novel alternative vote top-up or AV+ system. Having been tasked to meet a "requirement for broad proportionality",[9] the Commission rejected both FPTP, as the status quo, and AV as options. It pointed out (chapter 3, para 21) that "the single-member constituency is not an inherent part of the British parliamentary tradition. It was unusual until 1885...Until [then] most seats were two-member..." (referring to the English system established in 1276). Jenkins rejected AV because "so far from doing much to relieve disproportionality, it is capable of substantially adding to it".[10] AV was also described as "disturbingly unpredictable" and "unacceptably unfair".[11]
However, legislation for a referendum was not put forward. Proportional systems were introduced for the new Scottish Parliament and Welsh and London Assemblies, and the supplementary vote was introduced for mayoral elections. With House of Lords reform in 1999, AV was introduced to elect replacements for the remaining 92 hereditary peers who sit in the Lords.[12]
At the next general election in 2001, Labour's manifesto stated that the party would review the experience of the new systems (in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland) and the Jenkins report, to assess the possibility of changes to the Commons, which would still be subject to a referendum.[13] Electoral reform in the Commons remained at a standstill, although in the Scottish Parliament, a coalition of Labour and the Liberal Democrats introduced STV for local elections in Scotland.
Pre-election
In February 2010, the Labour government (which had been in power since 1997) used its majority to pass an amendment to its
In the ensuing 2010 general election campaign, the Labour manifesto supported the introduction of AV via a referendum, to "ensure that every MP is supported by the majority of their constituents voting at each election".[16] The Liberal Democrats argued for proportional representation, preferably by single transferable vote, and the Conservatives argued for the retention of FPTP. Both the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats proposed reducing the number of MPs, while the Conservative Party argued for more equal sized constituencies.
Election outcome to Queen's Speech
The 2010 UK general election held on 6 May resulted in a hung parliament, the first since 1974, leading to a period of negotiations. Honouring a pre-election pledge, the Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg entered into negotiations with the Conservatives as the party who had won most votes and most seats. William Hague offered the Liberal Democrats a referendum on the alternative vote as part of a "final offer" in the Conservatives' negotiations for a proposed "full and proper" coalition between the two parties.[17] Hague and Conservative leader David Cameron said that this was in response to Labour offering the Liberal Democrats the alternative vote without a referendum, although it later emerged that Labour had not made such an offer.[18] Negotiations between the Liberal Democrats and Labour quickly ended.[17] On 11 May 2010, Prime Minister Gordon Brown stepped down, followed by the establishment of a full coalition government between the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats. David Cameron became Prime Minister and Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg became Deputy Prime Minister.
The initial Conservative–Liberal Democrat coalition agreement, dated 11 May 2010, detailed the issues which had been agreed between the two parties before they committed to entering into coalition. On the issue of an electoral reform referendum, it stated:
The parties will bring forward a Referendum Bill on electoral reform, which includes provision for the introduction of the Alternative Vote in the event of a positive result in the referendum, as well as for the creation of fewer and more equal sized constituencies. Both parties will whip their Parliamentary Parties in both Houses to support a simple majority referendum on the Alternative Vote, without prejudice to the positions parties will take during such a referendum.[19]
Following the agreement between the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats, with the new coalition government now formed, a commitment to the referendum was included in the coalition government's
The coalition agreement committed both parties in the government to "whip" their Parliamentary parties in both the House of Commons and House of Lords to support the bill, thereby ensuring that it could reasonably be expected to be passed into law due to the simple majority in the Commons of the combined Conservative – Liberal Democrat voting bloc. The Lords can only delay, rather than block, a Bill passed by the Commons.
Passage through Parliament
According to The Guardian, reporting after the Queen's Speech, unnamed pro-referendum Cabinet members were believed to want the referendum held on 5 May 2011, to coincide with elections to the Scottish parliament, the Welsh assembly and many English local councils. Nick Clegg's prior hope of a referendum as early as October 2010 was considered unrealistic due to the parliamentary programme announced in the speech.[21]
On 5 July 2010, Clegg announced the detailed plans for the Parliamentary Reform Bill in a statement to the House of Commons, as part of the wider package of voting and election reforms set out in the coalition agreement, including setting the referendum date as 5 May 2011.[22][23] In addition to a referendum on AV, the reform bill also included the other coalition measures of reducing and resizing the Westminster parliamentary constituencies, introducing fixed-term parliaments and setting the date of the next general election as 7 May 2015, changing the voting threshold for early dissolution of parliament to 55%, and providing for the recall of MPs by their constituents.[24]
The plans to hold the vote on 5 May faced criticism from some Conservative MPs as distorting the result because turnout was predicted to be higher in those places where local elections were also held. It also faced criticism from Scottish, Welsh and Northern Irish MPs for the effects it would have on their devolved elections on the same day, while Clegg himself faced further criticism from Labour, and implied lessening support from Liberal Democrat MPs, for backing down on earlier Liberal Democrat positions on proportional representation.
On 22 July 2010, the proposal for fixed-term parliaments was put before parliament as the
The original proposed question in English was:[31]
Do you want the United Kingdom to adopt the "alternative vote" system instead of the current "first past the post" system for electing Members of Parliament to the House of Commons?
In Welsh:
Ydych chi am i'r Deyrnas Unedig fabwysiadu'r system "bleidlais amgen" yn lle'r system "first past the post" presennol ar gyfer ethol Aelodau Seneddol i Dŷ'r Cyffredin?
permitting a simple YES / NO answer (to be marked with a single (X)).
This wording was criticised by the Electoral Commission, saying that "particularly those with lower levels of education or literacy, found the question hard work and did not understand it". The Electoral Commission recommended a changed wording to make the issue easier to understand,[32] and the government subsequently amended the Bill to bring it into line with the Electoral Commission's recommendations.[33]
The Bill passed an interim vote in the Commons on 7 September 2010 by 328 votes to 269.[27]
An amendment proposed in the Lords by
After some compromises between the two Houses on amendments, the Bill was passed into law on 16 February 2011.[36]
Legislation
The Parliamentary Voting System and Constituencies Act 2011 provides for the holding of the referendum, and the related changes had it led to the adoption of AV. Passing the bill into law was a necessary measure before the referendum could actually take place. It received Royal assent on 16 February 2011.[36]
The Act has the following long title:[30]
An Act to make provision for a referendum on the voting system for parliamentary elections and to provide for parliamentary elections to be held under the alternative vote system if a majority of those voting in the referendum are in favour of that; to make provision about the number and size of parliamentary constituencies; and for connected purposes
Referendum question
Based on the coalition agreement, the referendum was a
The question posed by the referendum was:[33]
At present, the UK uses the "first past the post" system to elect MPs to the House of Commons. Should the "alternative vote" system be used instead?
In
Ar hyn o bryd, mae'r DU yn defnyddio'r system "y cyntaf i’r felin" i ethol ASau i Dŷ'r Cyffredin. A ddylid defnyddio’r system "pleidlais amgen" yn lle hynny?
permitting a simple YES / NO answer (to be marked with a single (X)).
Administration
The referendum took place on 5 May 2011, coinciding with various United Kingdom local elections, the 2011 Scottish Parliament election, the 2011 Welsh Assembly election and the 2011 Northern Ireland Assembly election.[22] The deadline for voters in England, Wales and Northern Ireland to register to vote in the referendum was midnight on Thursday 14 April 2011, whilst voters in Scotland had until midnight on Friday 15 April 2011 to register. Anyone in the United Kingdom who qualified as an anonymous elector had until midnight on Tuesday 26 April 2011 to register.[37] In the vote count, the referendum ballots in England, Scotland and Wales were counted after the various election ballots, from 4 pm on 6 May 2011.[38] The referendum had no minimum threshold on the required turnout needed for the result to be valid.[36]
Anyone on the
Campaign positions
Political parties
Political parties' position on the referendum | For a 'Yes' vote (introduce AV) | No official party position | For a 'No' vote (oppose AV) |
---|---|---|---|
Parties elected to the House of Commons | Liberal Democrats Scottish National Party Sinn Féin Plaid Cymru Social Democratic and Labour Party Green Party of England and Wales Alliance Party of Northern Ireland |
Labour Party | Conservative Party Democratic Unionist Party |
Parties elected to the European Parliament or regional assemblies / parliaments | UKIP
Scottish Greens |
Green Party in Northern Ireland
| |
Minor parties | Liberal Party Mebyon Kernow English Democrats Christian Party Christian Peoples Alliance Pirate Party UK Libertarian Party |
Socialist Party of Great Britain Official Monster Raving Loony Party |
Traditional Unionist Voice Respect Party Communist Party of Britain Socialist Party Alliance for Workers' Liberty |
Coalition parties
The coalition partners campaigned on opposite sides, with the Liberal Democrats supporting AV and the Conservatives opposing it.[39]
Despite the Conservative Party's formal position, party members who were aligned to the Conservative Action for Electoral Reform, an internal party group in favour of electoral reform, campaigned in favour,[40] while a BBC News report described "some Tory MPs" as being "relaxed" about a 'Yes' result.[41] Some Conservatives campaigned in favour of AV, e.g. Andrew Boff AM;[42] and Andrew Marshall, former head of the Conservative Group on Camden Council.[43] The Conservative Party uses a system of successive ballots to elect its leader,[44] which has been described as a "form of AV" (since the candidate with the fewest votes is eliminated in each round),[45] but unlike AV, the candidates are not ranked in order of preference during each ballot.
Other parties represented in the House of Commons
Labour elected a new leader following the 2010 general election and many of the leadership candidates supported AV, including winner Ed Miliband;[46][47] however, Andy Burnham was critical of the referendum.[48] Former Labour Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett was president of the No to AV campaign.[49] Other supporters of the party also used the referendum to attack the coalition[50] and voiced opposition to the bill currently providing for the referendum, on the grounds of the inclusion of boundary changes that are viewed as beneficial to the Conservative Party.[51]
Plaid Cymru supported AV, but did not take an active role in the campaign, as it focused on separate Welsh votes on the same day.[41] The Scottish National Party, while maintaining its longstanding support for PR-STV, also supported a 'Yes' vote in the referendum.[41] Both of these parties opposed the planned referendum date, as they did not want it held at the same time as the 2011 Welsh Assembly elections and the 2011 Scottish Parliament elections respectively.[27]
Among the Northern Irish parties, the Alliance Party and the Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) supported AV.[52] SDLP leader Margaret Ritchie announced that her party would actively campaign in favour.[53] Sinn Féin also supported a 'Yes' vote, but the Democratic Unionist Party supported a 'No' vote.[54]
The Green Party of England and Wales voted in favour of joining the campaign for AV in the referendum at its September 2010 party conference. Many leading figures in the party supported the change as a step towards their preferred system, proportional representation.[55] Previously, the party's leader and only MP, Caroline Lucas, had called for a referendum that included a choice of proportional representation.[56] However, at the party's Conference, Deputy Leader Adrian Ramsay argued that "If you vote No in this referendum, nobody would know whether you were rejecting AV because you wanted genuine reform, or were simply opposing any reform."[55]
Minor parties
The UK Independence Party's National Executive Committee formally announced that it would be supporting Alternative Vote, although it would prefer a proportional system.[57] An e-mail was sent to members informing them that they might vote against AV, but were not allowed to campaign.[41][58]
The British National Party criticised AV[59] and supported a 'No' vote.[41]
The
The
The Ulster Unionist Party and Traditional Unionist Voice supported a 'No' vote.[54] The Green Party Northern Ireland also opposed the change to AV, as they viewed it as a betrayal of proportional representation.[62]
The English Democrats,[41] the Christian Peoples Alliance[41] and the Christian Party all supported AV.[63] Pirate Party UK endorsed a 'Yes' vote, with over 90% of members expressing support for AV.[64]
The Liberal Party agreed to support the 'Yes' campaign, seeing AV as "a potential 'stepping stone' to further reform" and STV.[65]
The Communist Party of Britain opposed AV.[41]
Mebyon Kernow, the Cornish nationalist party, favoured proportional representation and was disappointed that the referendum did not give voters that option.[66] However, leader Dick Cole announced on 1 April 2011 that Mebyon Kernow would be supporting the 'Yes' campaign.[67]
The
The Socialist Party of Great Britain adopted a neutral position, arguing "what matters more is what we use our votes for" in the context of class struggle.[69]
The Socialist Party opposed AV, pointing out that it is not more proportional than First Past the Post.[70]
The Alliance for Workers' Liberty opposed AV, arguing that it did not offer progress on the party's main democratic demands.[71]
Politicians
Prime Minister David Cameron of the Conservative Party and Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg of the Liberal Democrats made speeches backing the 'No' and 'Yes' campaigns respectively on the same day, but were thereafter not expected to take much part in the campaigns,[72] although both were active since. Cameron described AV as "undemocratic, obscure, unfair and crazy".[73] He was praised for his intervention by back-bench Conservative MPs.[74]
Labour leader
The Liberal Democrats supported a 'Yes' vote and many individual Liberal Democrat politicians were active in the 'Yes' campaign. The SNP leader,
Supporting the
Conservative politician Michael Gove was initially mistakenly announced by the No to AV campaign as opposing AV, but his advisers stated that he had never been involved in the campaign and had not yet made up his mind.[87] Over five Labour MPs announced as opposing AV were also found to have been wrongly included:[88][89] for example, Alun Michael supported a 'Yes' vote,[88] while Meg Hillier did not lend her name to either campaign.[90]
Some Conservative politicians did support AV, including John Strafford, a former member of the Conservative Party's national executive, who chaired the Conservative campaign in favour of a 'Yes' vote.[91]
Other organisations
AV campaigning organisations
Two campaign groups were established in response to the proposed referendum, one on each side of the debate. NOtoAV was established to campaign against the change to the alternative vote[92] and YES! To Fairer Votes[93] was established to campaign in favour.[94]
Political reform groups
Take Back Parliament,[95] the Electoral Reform Society,[96] Make My Vote Count,[97] and Unlock Democracy[98] all campaigned in favour of the change to AV.
Trade unions
The
Think tanks
Compass supported the change to the AV and urged the Labour Party to do so too.[47][101] It prefers a switch to a more proportional system, but viewed AV as superior to FPTP. ResPublica supported the change to AV and urged the Conservative Party to do so too.[102] Policy Exchange opposed the change to AV.[103] Ekklesia supported the change to AV.[104]
A report by the
Academics
A number of academics entered the debate, either in mainstream media or through blogs, social networking, or academic publication.
Those in favour of AV included
Dan Felsenthal (LSE) criticised AV as "deeply flawed", though he also described it as "a minor improvement on the current first-past-the-post system".[113]
David S. Moon (Sheffield) argued that AV would be worse than FPTP, though he regards both as flawed and supports a move to proportional representation.[114]
At a Voting Power in Practice workshop, held at the Chateau du Baffy, in France from 30 July to 2 August 2010, 22 voting theory specialists voted to select the "best voting procedure" to elect a candidate from a selection of three or more. First past the post received no votes, compared to 10 for AV, although another system,
On 11 March 29 historians, including
Other organisations
Media
The Guardian,[120] The Independent,[121] the Daily Mirror,[122] and the Financial Times[123] supported the change to AV. The Daily Mail, The Times, the Daily Express and The Daily Telegraph opposed AV.[citation needed] The Economist supported a 'No' vote, but did want to see reform of the current electoral system.[124] Socialist daily newspaper the Morning Star urged a 'No' vote, on the basis that AV would be no more fair than FPTP; the paper argued for single transferable vote instead.[125]
Campaigners and celebrities
Supporting the 'Yes' campaign were campaigner and musician
Celebrities supporting a 'Yes' vote included comedian David Mitchell,[128] comedian and actor Eddie Izzard,[129] author Naomi Alderman, playwright Bonnie Greer, comedian Francesca Martinez, actress Helena Bonham Carter, Oscar award-winning actor Colin Firth, actor and Liberal Democrat supporter John Cleese, comedian Stephen Fry, actor Art Malik, John O'Farrell, actor Richard Wilson, editor and writer Rowan Davies, broadcaster Greg Dyke, co-founder of the Ministry of Sound James Palumbo,[72] actor and comedian David Schneider,[130] Kriss Akabusi, Chris Addison, Josie Long, Benjamin Zephaniah and Honor Blackman. Comedian and actor Steve Coogan also supported a 'Yes' vote.[131]
Supporting a 'No' vote were television presenter
Religious figures
Also supporting the 'Yes' campaign were several Church of England bishops: Michael Langrish, Bishop of Exeter; Colin Buchanan, former area Bishop of Woolwich;[135] Alan Smith, Bishop of St Albans; John Packer, Bishop of Ripon and Leeds; Martyn Jarrett, Bishop of Beverley; Nigel Stock, Bishop of St Edmundsbury and Ipswich; Alan Wilson, Bishop of Buckingham; Michael Perham, Bishop of Gloucester; Peter Dawes, former Bishop of Derby; and David Atkinson, former Bishop of Thetford.[136]
Jonathan Bartley (founder and co-director of the Ekklesia religious thinktank, and who was later co-leader of the Green Party)[87] supported the referendum.
Others
Anti-corruption campaigner, former broadcaster and independent MP,
Campaign donors and spending
By around the beginning of May, the 'Yes' campaign had spent £3.4 million compared to £2.6 million by the 'No' campaign.[138]
The 'Yes' campaign revealed that it had raised £2 million (as of 15 February 2011), with 95% coming from two donors, the
There were initially accusations in the press that the 'No' campaign was refusing to publish details of their donors and the 'Yes' campaign was quicker than the 'No' campaign in doing this,[139] but subsequently said on 18 February 2011 they would do so before the referendum date.[140] However, they had not done so by 28 March 2011 when the 'Yes' campaign published an updated list of all donors of over £7,500, and launched a petition calling on the 'No' campaign to do the same.[141]
The 'No' campaign released a list of donors on 9 April 2011, which included several major donors to the Conservative Party, including
The Guardian newspaper identified 42 of the 53 named donors to the 'No' campaign as donors to the Conservative Party, while one, the GMB union, is a donor to the Labour Party, and nine were not identified in official donor records. The remaining donor is official funding from the electoral commission. The donors include seven Conservative peers. They quote Margaret Beckett, a leading Labour 'No' campaigner, as saying this situation is a "necessary evil".[138]
While the 'Yes' campaign released figures of all donations over the declarable limit after it was set up, the 'No' campaign did not declare any donations prior to the referendum bill receiving Royal assent, for it was not required to do under the relevant regulations. David Blunkett, a 'No' campaigner, called on the 'No' campaign to do so.[138]
Campaign
The initial part of the campaign was overshadowed by continuing Parliamentary battles over the introducing Bill, which had threatened to delay the referendum date.[143] Launching their campaign, supporters of AV argued that the need for candidates to campaign for later preferences would encourage candidates to appeal to a broader cross-section of the electorate. They also pointed out the declining number of people voting for the main two parties in the UK over recent decades.[35]
Party politics
The 'Yes' campaign sought to present its campaign as being on behalf of members of the public. The 'No' campaign sought to play on the unpopularity of the leader of the Liberal Democrats, Nick Clegg, and to present the referendum as an opportunity to punish Clegg at the polls. It also claimed that Clegg described AV as "a miserable little compromise" before the 2010 general election. The fuller quote says: "I am not going to settle for a miserable little compromise thrashed out by the Labour Party."[144] However, the Conservatives rejected the possibility of introducing PR in coalition negotiations, leading to a referendum in which the choice was between FPTP and AV.
While officially supporting a 'No' vote, the Conservative Party leadership reportedly initially held back on campaigning and advised major Conservative Party donors not to donate to the 'No' campaign. However, this position changed in January 2011 and the leadership became more involved, with requests to donors to fund the 'No' campaign and staff and party headquarters becoming directly involved in campaigning.[citation needed]
In mid-February, the prime minister, David Cameron, and the deputy prime minister, Nick Clegg, made opposing speeches advocating a 'No' and 'Yes' result respectively. Clegg argued that AV would mean "fairer votes" and that FPTP produced more safe seats, and linked these to the MPs' expenses scandal. He said that AV would encourage politicians to work to appeal to more of the electorate rather than just their core supporters.[145] He stated that "I think this [AV] is a natural evolution which reflects the fact that politics is no longer now, as it was 50 years ago when everybody was very happy to plump for the blue corner or the red corner, people want more choice now."
Cameron, in contrast, argued that FPTP delivers more accountability, and claimed it reduces the number of hung parliaments. He insisted that "when it comes to our democracy, Britain shouldn't have to settle for anyone's second choice."[146] He also claimed, on BBC Radio 4's Today programme on 3 May 2011, that AV would undermine the fundamental principle of "one person, one vote".[147] Despite the coalition parties being on different sides in the campaign, Cameron insisted that "whatever the result", the coalition would continue.[148]
Caroline Lucas, head of the Green Party of England and Wales said in support of AV that "they can vote for what they believe in and I think that will be very liberating for a lot of people".[149]
Row over possible costs
The 'No' campaign launched with a claim that choosing AV would cost £250 million.[150] However, this figure was criticised on several grounds. For example, it included an estimated £82 million for holding the referendum, that would have applied whatever the referendum outcome, and failed to take into account costs saved from holding the referendum at the same time as other elections. The £250 million figure also included £130 million[151] for the cost of electronic voting systems, although these were not used by the largest country then using AV, Australia,[35][139][152] and there were no plans to use such machines if AV were introduced in the UK.[153] (The referendum actually cost about £75 million, below estimates made at the time, according to the Electoral Commission.[154])
Labour MP Douglas Alexander described the figure claimed as a "lie".[35] A Channel 4 News Fact Check concluded that the specific claim that AV would require electronic counting machines, the main component of the £250 million figure, was "fiction".[155] Alan Renwick likewise dismissed the suggestion that voting machines would be required, saying "The No camp [...] say that AV would require expensive voting machines. [...] that is just plain false."[156]
The Treasury stated that the adoption of AV would not lead to any spending cuts.
The 'No' campaign launched a series of advertisements on posters and in regional newspapers based on the £250 million figure. Ads included:
- A picture of a soldier's face, with "He needs bulletproof vests, NOT an alternative voting system. Say NO to spending £250million on AV. Our country can't afford it. NOtoAV".[158]
- A similar ad featuring a picture of a sick baby in a tiny hat with an oxygen tube to the nose, eyes shut, hand outstretched. The copy includes: "She needs a new cardiac facility NOT an alternative voting system. On 5th May you’ll be asked in a referendum whether you want to change our voting system to the Alternative Vote: a change that would cost our country at least £250million. Now is not the right time to be spending money that could be put to better use. Like a much-needed new Children’s Heart Centre at Birmingham Children’s Hospital." etc.[155]
- Picture of pensioner, with "she needs home help not an alternative voting system" etc. [159]
The 'Yes' campaign described these as "shameful", a "smear" and "lies", and complained to the Electoral Commission and Advertising Standards Authority, both of whom stated that they did not have powers to regulate individual adverts in the campaign.[153]
On 5 May, David Blunkett, one of the Labour Party former-government ministers who had supported the 'No' campaign, admitted that the £250 million figure used by the 'No' campaign had been fabricated, and that the 'No' campaign had knowingly lied about the figure and other claims during the campaign.[160]
Coalition and minority governments
Supporters of a 'No' vote claimed that AV would lead to more coalition governments, but models of recent UK elections suggest that this may not be the case,[35][161] The BBC had modelled the possible effect of AV on every general election since 1983 and concluded that the overall result would not have changed in any of them.[162] Paddy Ashdown pointed out that in the twentieth century Australia had fewer hung Parliaments under AV than the UK had under FPTP. The report of the Independent Commission on the Voting System, issued in 1998, stated that "There is not the slightest reason to think that AV would reduce the stability of government; it might indeed lead to larger parliamentary majorities."[163]
During the referendum campaign a BBC Newsnight special on the referendum suggested that AV would lead to a small increase in the number of hung results
AV would probably make little difference in most general elections. ... By helping the Lib Dems – the second choice of many voters – AV makes hung parliaments more likely. But the effect would probably not be very great. AV would not have transformed the result in any of the twelve postwar elections that yielded large working majorities. But the parliaments of 1951 and 1992 might have been hung, and AV might have given Labour a working majority in the indecisive elections of 1950, 1964, and February and October 1974.[167]
The Channel 4 News FactCheck summarised the position as follows:
AV would not lead to permanent hung parliaments and coalition governments. The best academic research we have suggests that AV wouldn't make big landslides a thing of the past, and nor would it make hung Parliaments more likely ... hung parliaments are indeed more likely in the future. But that will be the case under both AV and FPTP.[168]
"One person, one vote"
Under AV each voters casts a "single transferable vote". The 'No' campaign argued that some people would get multiple votes under AV,
this system [AV] does not involve some people getting more votes than others. Every voter gets just one vote, which is counted several times. Your second preference is not a second vote, it is an instruction about how you want your (only) vote to be used if it would be wasted because your first choice candidate can't win. Each vote is counted in each round of voting[161]
Safe seats
The 'Yes' campaign argued that AV would be fairer, and that it would reduce or even eliminate 'safe seats', making MPs work harder. This was contested by the 'No' campaign, again with reference to Australia.[171] This view was supported by Alan Renwick, who stated that "AV wouldn't significantly change the number of safe seats. Even the claim that AV would make a big dent in the number of safe seats goes further than the facts support."[164] However, the New Economics Foundation think-tank, which supported a 'Yes' vote, published modelling showing that with the introduction of AV the number of very marginal seats would have increased from 81 to 125, and the number of very safe seats would decrease from 331 to 271, although there would also have been an increase in the number of quite safe seats.[172] The Foundation found that, with FPTP, the average number of seats changing hands per election was 13% and this could rise to 16% under AV, modestly increasing voter power overall, but concluded "that neither system is very good at translating votes into electoral power".[173][174]
Majority support for MPs
The 'Yes' campaign argued that AV would ensure that every MP was supported by an overall majority, more than 50% of the voters. However, in its Guide to AV, Ipsos MORI stated "this is not really true, but maybe it's a defensible simplification". AV ensures that a candidate is elected with the support of at least 50% of voters who have expressed a preference between the final two candidates in the contest. If some voters have indicated that they are indifferent between the final two, by not ranking either of them on the ballot paper, then the winner may be elected with the support of fewer than 50% of all votes cast.
Rawlings and Thrasher stated that "the claims that AV will guarantee local majority support can only be validated if every voter is compelled or chooses to cast a full range of preferences. There seems little prospect of that happening in a general election conducted under AV in the UK."[161][175] The Channel 4 News FactCheck stated that it "is right that candidates will have to aim for 50% of votes, though it is true that some candidates will end up being elected on fewer than 50% of all the votes cast".[168]
In the most recent general election, roughly two-thirds of MPs had been elected without an overall majority. Rawlings and Thrasher predicted that "more than four out of ten" MPs would still not have majority support under AV, while Ipsos MORI stated "It is certainly true that in many constituencies ... MPs elected under AV will have the support of a higher proportion of voters than they did under FPTP".
Existing use of voting systems in Britain and abroad
The 'No' campaign argued that only three countries use AV. It also stated that the Australian public wish to do away with AV, a claim that is false.[176] At the time of the referendum, three nations used AV for parliamentary elections: Australia, Papua New Guinea, and Fiji. However, AV is also used internationally for many other forms of election.
AV is used for
AV is used by many private organisations in the UK, for example in the leadership elections of the Labour Party and the Liberal Democrats, while the leadership elections for the Conservative Party use the related exhaustive ballot. AV is also used by the
A method similar to AV, called the
The 'No' campaign stressed that FPTP is used in over fifty countries, with a combined population of approximately 2.4 billion people.[179] FPTP is used for legislature elections in the United States, India and Canada, as well as other non-G20 nations. It is used for presidential elections in twenty countries, and for various forms of election in 45 others (35 of these are Member states of the Commonwealth of Nations or British Overseas Territories).[178]
Proportional representation
Some opponents of AV saw it as a stepping stone toward unwanted (for them) proportional representation, while some supporters of proportional representation saw the referendum as a lost opportunity that would delay a move to proportional representation.
Tactical voting
First-past-the-post is a
AV and the BNP
The
AV is highly unlikely to help the BNP win any seats, and the secondary votes of BNP supporters alone wouldn't swing a seat for any other party – going on last year's results. In fact, in a very divided constituency, the BNP arguably has a better chance of winning a seat under First Past the Post than under AV.
The FactCheck went on to quote the BNP deputy chairman Simon Darby, who said: "AV is a retrograde step – it's worse than what we've got now[.] We are never going to get our feet under the table under the AV system."[187] The No2AV-Yes2PR campaign website countered that "AV does confer a subtle benefit on extremists like the BNP: increased legitimacy. AV enables people to cast 'free' protest vote safe in the knowledge that they can they cast a second preference for the party they actually want."[188]
Dennis Leech, a professor at Warwick University, has argued that extremists like the BNP are more likely to win under FPTP, but he has also argued against the notion that AV automatically favours centrists:
while AV prevents the kind of undemocratic result that often occurs under FPTP, and always ensures that the winning candidate has at least some kind of majority support, it has nothing to do with proportional representation. It does not follow that centrist or compromise candidates such as the LibDems will be more likely to win – only that the least popular cannot win. A centrist candidate such as a LibDem will still need enough first preference votes to stand a chance.[165]
Final weeks
The final weeks of the campaign were marked by an increased rancour, with a battle of words between members of the Coalition government.[189] For example, Liberal Democrat energy secretary Chris Huhne threatened legal action over "untruths" that he claimed were told by Conservative Chancellor George Osborne that new voting machines would be required by AV, despite these not being used in Australian elections under AV[189] and no plans to introduce them. The 'No' campaign countered, quoting a senior returning officer (Anthony Mayer), who said that voting machines would be essential with AV if results are desired as quickly as today, rather than counting over the weekend after a general election.[190] See the row over possible costs section for a fuller discussion.
Huhne was reported to have strongly criticised Conservative colleagues at a Cabinet meeting in early May 2011 for the 'No' campaign's material. However, one of the key 'No' campaign leaflets he targeted, showing a newborn baby with the slogan "She needs a maternity unit, not an alternative voting system", was developed by Dan Hodges, a Labour Party campaigner working for NO2AV.[191]
Leading members of the Labour Party on different sides of the campaign also stepped up to campaign for the votes of Labour supporters,[192] including a major newspaper interview with Peter Mandelson in which he called for a 'Yes' vote and a major advertising campaign by the Labour Yes to Fairer Votes group, both arguing that Labour voters should vote 'Yes' because of Conservative support for a 'No' result. However, the 'No' campaign responded by pointing out that a majority of Labour MPs opposed AV (130 out of 255 opposing AV, 86 in support).[citation needed] In the last week a grassroots campaign featuring Reform Cat in the YouTube video "Is your Cat confused about the referendum on the voting system on the 5th May?" which was released on 27 April 2011,[193] gained more views than either official campaign videos.
Polling
Polling organisation |
Poll was taken on behalf of |
Was actual referendum question used? |
Survey end date |
AV (%) |
FPTP (%) |
Would not vote (%) |
Don't know (%) |
Ref | Notes |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ComRes |
Independent on Sunday |
No | 2010-05-13 | 59 | 32 | — | 10 | [194] | |
ICM | Sunday Telegraph |
No | 2010-05-13 | 56 | 35 | — | 9 | [194] | |
YouGov | Sun | No | 2010-06-14 | 44 | 34 | 5 | 17 | [194] | |
YouGov | Sun | No | 2010-06-28 | 42 | 34 | 5 | 18 | [194] | |
YouGov | Sun | No | 2010-07-05 | 45 | 32 | 6 | 17 | [194] | |
YouGov | Sun | No | 2010-07-19 | 39 | 38 | 7 | 17 | [194] | |
YouGov | Sun | No | 2010-08-02 | 41 | 36 | 5 | 18 | [194] | |
YouGov | Sun | No | 2010-08-16 | 37 | 38 | 7 | 18 | [194] | |
ICM | Guardian | No | 2010-08-16 | 45 | 45 | — | 10 | [194] | |
YouGov | Sun | No | 2010-08-31 | 37 | 39 | 5 | 18 | [194] | |
YouGov | Constitution Society | No | 2010-09-01 | 32 | 33 | 8 | 28 | [194] | |
YouGov | Sun | No | 2010-09-06 | 35 | 39 | 8 | 18 | [194] | |
YouGov | Sun | No | 2010-09-20 | 36 | 39 | 8 | 17 | [194] | |
YouGov | Sun | No | 2010-10-04 | 35 | 40 | 7 | 18 | [194] | |
YouGov | Sun | No | 2010-10-18 | 33 | 41 | 6 | 19 | [194] | |
YouGov | Sun | No | 2010-11-01 | 32 | 43 | 8 | 17 | [194] | |
YouGov | Sun | No | 2010-11-15 | 33 | 40 | 7 | 20 | [194] | |
ICM | Yes to fairer votes |
Yes | 2010-11-28 | 48 | 35 | — | 17 | [194] | |
ICM | ERS | Yes | 2010-11-28 | 35 | 22 | 9 | 35 | [194] | |
YouGov | Sun | No | 2010-11-29 | 35 | 41 | 7 | 17 | [194] | |
ICM | Guardian | Yes | 2010-12-03 | 44 | 38 | — | 18 | [194] | |
ICM | ERS | Yes | 2010-12-03 | 36 | 30 | — | 34 | [194] | |
YouGov | Sun | No | 2010-12-13 | 33 | 39 | 7 | 21 | [194] | |
YouGov | No | 2010-12-14 | 32 | 40 | 9 | 19 | [194] | ||
Angus Reid |
Yes | 2011-01-07 | 37 | 20 | 6 | 37 | [194] | ||
YouGov | Sun | No | 2011-01-10 | 32 | 41 | 8 | 18 | [194] | |
YouGov | Sun | No | 2011-01-24 | 32 | 41 | 7 | 20 | [194] | |
YouGov | Sun | No | 2011-02-07 | 38 | 39 | 7 | 16 | [194] | |
YouGov | Sun | No | 2011-02-08 | 37 | 38 | 6 | 18 | [194] | |
ComRes | Independent on Sunday | Yes | 2011-02-10 | 40 | 30 | — | 30 | [194] | |
ComRes | Independent on Sunday | No | 2011-02-10 | 40 | 30 | — | 30 | [194] | |
ComRes | Newsnight | No | 2011-02-13 | 41 | 41 | — | 18 | [194] | |
Populus | Times | No | 2011-02-13 | 41 | 29 | — | 30 | [194] | |
Populus | Times | No | 2011-02-13 | 29 | 43 | 9 | 20 | [194] | |
Angus Reid | Yes | 2011-02-16 | 37 | 22 | 6 | 35 | [194] | ||
ICM | Guardian | Yes | 2011-02-20 | 37 | 37 | — | 27 | [194] | |
YouGov | Sun | No | 2011-02-21 | 34 | 41 | 7 | 18 | [194] | |
YouGov | No2AV | No | 2011-02-28 | 32 | 43 | 7 | 17 | [194] | |
YouGov | No2AV | Yes | 2011-03-01 | 33 | 30 | 6 | 30 | [194] | |
Angus Reid | Yes | 2011-03-04 | 32 | 26 | 7 | 35 | [194] | ||
YouGov | Sun | No | 2011-03-07 | 30 | 47 | 8 | 15 | [194] | |
ComRes | Independent on Sunday | Yes | 2011-03-10 | 34 | 37 | — | 28 | [194] | |
YouGov | Sky News | Yes | 2011-03-10 | 37 | 32 | 7 | 24 | [194] | |
Harris | Metro | Yes | 2011-03-11 | 31 | 32 | — | 37 | [194] | |
YouGov | Sunday Times | Yes | 2011-03-18 | 39 | 37 | 1 | 23 | [194] | |
Angus Reid | Yes | 2011-03-21 | 29 | 28 | 7 | 35 | [194] | ||
YouGov | Sun | No | 2011-03-21 | 32 | 44 | 7 | 17 | [194] | |
YouGov | Sun | No | 2011-03-28 | 32 | 44 | 6 | 18 | [194] | |
YouGov | Sun | No | 2011-03-30 | 31 | 44 | 7 | 18 | [194] | |
YouGov | Sunday Times | Yes | 2011-04-01 | 40 | 37 | 1 | 22 | [194] | |
Populus | Times | No | 2011-04-03 | 33 | 37 | — | 30 | [194] | |
Populus | Times | No | 2011-04-03 | 29 | 46 | 8 | 17 | [194] | |
YouGov | Sun | No | 2011-04-04 | 34 | 42 | 7 | 17 | [194] | |
YouGov | Sunday Times | Yes | 2011-04-08 | 39 | 38 | 1 | 22 | [194] | |
Angus Reid | Yes | 2011-04-11 | 32 | 28 | 8 | 32 | [194] | ||
YouGov | Sun | No | 2011-04-11 | 33 | 45 | 6 | 15 | [194] | |
YouGov | Sun | Yes | 2011-04-12 | 37 | 44 | 0 | 19 | [194] | |
ComRes | Independent on Sunday | Yes | 2011-04-15 | 37 | 43 | — | 21 | [194] | |
YouGov | Sunday Times | Yes | 2011-04-15 | 40 | 41 | 1 | 17 | [194] | |
ICM | Guardian | Yes | 2011-04-17 | 42 | 58 | — | — | [194] | Includes Northern Ireland |
TNS-BMRB | Independent | Yes | 2011-04-18 | 32 | 34 | 13 | 20 | [194] | |
YouGov | Sun | Yes | 2011-04-19 | 42 | 58 | — | — | [194] | |
Angus Reid | Yes | 2011-04-21 | 42 | 58 | — | — | [194] | ||
ICD | New Statesman | Yes | 2011-04-25 | 39 | 53 | — | 9 | [194] | |
ComRes | No2AV | Yes | 2011-04-25 | 40 | 60 | — | — | [194] | |
YouGov | Sun | Yes | 2011-04-26 | 41 | 59 | — | — | [194] | |
YouGov | Sunday Times | Yes | 2011-04-29 | 45 | 55 | — | — | [194] | |
ComRes | Independent | Yes | 2011-05-01 | 34 | 66 | — | — | [194] | |
ICM | Guardian | Yes | 2011-05-03 | 32 | 68 | — | — | [195] | |
YouGov | Sun | Yes | 2011-05-04 | 40 | 60 | — | — | [196] | |
Angus Reid | Yes | 2011-05-04 | 39 | 61 | — | — | [197] |
Proposed AV system
System
Under the
Ballot instructions
Schedule 10 to the Parliamentary Voting System and Constituencies Act 2011 proposed to amend Paragraph (5) of Rule 29 of Schedule 1 to the Representation of the People Act 1983 (the "Parliamentary Election Rules"), so that the instructions to the voter displayed in ballot boxes would be changed from an instruction to vote for only one candidate, to read:[199]
"Remember—use 1, 2, 3 etc at this election—this is an election using the alternative vote system. Put the number 1 next to the name of the candidate who is your first choice (or your only choice, if you want to vote for only one candidate). You can also put the number 2 next to your second choice, 3 next to your third choice, and so on. You can mark as few or as many choices (up to the number of candidates) as you wish. Do not use the same number more than once. Put no other mark on the ballot paper, or your vote may not be counted."
This was repealed by the Parliamentary Voting System and Constituencies Act 2011 (Repeal of Alternative Vote Provisions) Order 2011.[200]
Voting areas and counts
The referendum was held nationally across all four countries of the
The following table shows the breakdown of the voting areas for the referendum within the United Kingdom.
Country | Counts and voting areas |
---|---|
United Kingdom | Referendum declaration; 12 regional counts; 440 voting areas |
Constituent countries | Counts and voting areas |
---|---|
England |
9 regional counts; 326 voting areas |
Northern Ireland | National count and single voting area |
Scotland | National count; 73 voting areas |
Wales | National count; 40 voting areas |
Result
According to the Electoral Commission, the votes were first counted in the 440 voting areas across the United Kingdom. Except in
Ahead of the last results from Northern Ireland, the result was confirmed as a 'No', as it was mathematically impossible for the 'Yes' voters to outnumber them.[203]
Choice | Votes | % |
---|---|---|
No | 13,013,123 | 67.90 |
Yes | 6,152,607 | 32.10 |
Valid votes | 19,165,730 | 99.41 |
Invalid or blank votes | 113,292 | 0.59 |
Total votes | 19,279,022 | 100.00 |
Registered voters/turnout | 45,684,501 | 42.20 |
Source: Electoral Commission |
National referendum results (excluding invalid votes) | |
---|---|
Yes 6,152,607 (32.1%) |
No 13,013,123 (67.9%) |
▲ 50% |
Regional count results
Region | Electorate | Voter turnout, of eligible |
Votes | Proportion of votes | Invalid votes | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | No | Yes | No | ||||||
East Midlands | 3,348,469 | 42.8% | 408,877 | 1,013,864 | 28.74% | 71.26% | 9,486 | ||
East of England | 4,263,006 | 43.1% | 530,140 | 1,298,004 | 29.00% | 71.00% | 11,218 | ||
Greater London | 5,258,802 | 35.4% | 734,427 | 1,123,480 | 39.53% | 60.47% | 4,561 | ||
North East England | 1,968,137 | 38.8% | 212,951 | 546,138 | 28.05% | 71.95% | 3,214 | ||
North West England | 5,239,323 | 39.1% | 613,249 | 1,416,201 | 30.22% | 69.78% | 19,273 | ||
Northern Ireland | 1,198,966 | 55.8% | 289,088 | 372,706 | 43.68% | 56.32% | 7,062 | ||
Scotland | 3,893,268 | 50.7% | 713,813 | 1,249,375 | 36.36% | 63.64% | 12,370 | ||
South East England | 6,288,366 | 43.1% | 823,793 | 1,951,793 | 29.68% | 70.32% | 12,594 | ||
South West England | 4,028,829 | 44.6% | 564,541 | 1,225,305 | 31.54% | 68.46% | 7,399 | ||
Wales | 2,268,739 | 41.7% | 325,349 | 616,307 | 34.55% | 65.45% | 5,267 | ||
West Midlands | 4,093,521 | 39.8% | 461,847 | 1,157,772 | 28.52% | 71.48% | 13,845 | ||
Yorkshire and the Humber | 3,835,075 | 39.9% | 474,532 | 1,042,178 | 31.29% | 68.71% | 13,722 |
Results by constituent countries
Country | Electorate | Voter turnout, of eligible |
Votes | Proportion of votes | Invalid votes | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | No | Yes | No | ||||||
England | 38,323,528 | 40.7% | 4,786,532 | 10,724,067 | 30.86% | 69.14% | 95,322 | ||
Northern Ireland | 1,198,966 | 55.8% | 289,088 | 372,306 | 43.68% | 56.32% | 7,062 | ||
Scotland | 3,893,269 | 50.7% | 713,813 | 1,249,375 | 36.36% | 63.64% | 12,370 | ||
Wales | 2,268,739 | 41.7% | 325,349 | 616,307 | 34.55% | 65.45% | 5,267 |
Outcome
Further details of campaigning decisions emerged after the referendum result, with Dan Hodges reporting that the Conservatives had endorsed the 'No' campaign's targeting of Nick Clegg, although they had originally opposed the idea. Hodges also reported that an aide of David Cameron secretly met 'No' campaign leaders in a hotel room in order to stop the Liberal Democrats finding out the scale of Conservative involvement.[204]
The Coalition government continued and sought to present a united front after the fractious campaign. Former Conservative Cabinet minister Michael Portillo criticised Cameron, saying he "forgot the importance of courtesy" towards Clegg and the Liberal Democrats and, thus, the survival of the Coalition, when he joined what Portillo called "the disgraceful No campaign".[204]
On 8 July 2011, the alternative vote provisions were repealed, bringing the statutory process that had initiated the referendum to an end.[205]
The decisive 'No' vote continues to be cited as an endorsement of first-past-the-post and a rejection of proportional representation, despite the fact that AV alone is not a proportional system. The Conservative government response to a 2016–17 parliamentary petition demanding proportional representation said that "A referendum on changing the voting system was held in 2011 and the public voted overwhelmingly in favour of keeping the FPTP system."[206] Tim Ivorson of the electoral reform campaign group Make Votes Matter responded by quoting the petition's text that "The UK has never had a say on PR. As David Cameron himself said, the AV referendum was on a system that is often less proportional than FPTP, so the rejection of AV could not possibly be a rejection of PR."[207]
See also
- Electoral systems in the United Kingdom
- Electoral reform in the United Kingdom
- Post-truth politics
- Results of the 2011 United Kingdom Alternative Vote referendum
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External links
- About My Vote: Referendum on the voting system used to elect MPs to the House of Commons (Electoral Commission's explanation of the referendum)
- Referendum on the voting system for the UK Parliament Archived 4 May 2011 at the Wayback Machine (Electoral Commission)
- "10 reasons the AV referendum was lost" by Tom Clark