Talk:Russian occupation of Mykolaiv Oblast

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Annexation situation

My understanding is that Russia has not annexed a region called "Mykolaiv" (or Nikolaev), but has instead streamlined the tiny bit of Mykolaiv under its control into the new "Kherson Oblast (Russia)". With that being said, it's not even entirely clear how much territory of Mykolaiv is still under Russian control. I've seen reports that certain parts of Russian-occupied Mykolaiv have been liberated by Ukrainian forces, although these reports are unconfirmed. At this point, Russia does not seem to control much of value in Mykolaiv, although I think Russia has technically annexed some tiny bits of the oblast. Whether Russia would attempt to re-occupy these bits after Ukrainian liberation is another matter entirely. i.e. Russia could theoretically continue to claim them after losing control of them. Jargo Nautilus (talk) 02:44, 8 October 2022 (UTC)[reply]

In reply to myself: The original sourcing, which consists of two sources, is insufficient. Much better sources are needed in order to assert with confidence that the small bits of Mykolaiv Oblast have been annexed into Kherson Oblast by the Russian occupational forces. Jargo Nautilus (talk) 14:06, 9 October 2022 (UTC)[reply]

Ping: @Cryw 9 - I already created this talk section yesterday to discuss the concept of Mykolaiv getting absorbed into Kherson. The main issue I'm seeing here is that the sourcing is low-quality. Even if it is Russian-state media, it can't be trusted. We need something that is definitive, preferably from a reliable third party (e.g. BBC News). Jargo Nautilus (talk) 15:06, 9 October 2022 (UTC)[reply]

I know what you mean as for the reliability of Russian sources, if this was a discussion about an event in Ukraine of any sorts I would no doubt consider Russian sources unreliable. However what we are talking about is who is administrating these areas and according to Russian media it is under Russian Kherson and given this is about the Russian administration a Russian source seems more reliable. Secondly it was also Russian media who originally in early/mid August announced the creation of the Mykolaiv MCA. Cryw 9 (talk) 15:13, 9 October 2022 (UTC)[reply]
Edit: I have found a source from Reuters which indicates that Russian areas of Mykolaiv are under Russian Kherson see here. Cryw 9 (talk) 15:18, 9 October 2022 (UTC)[reply]
The issue with this Reuters report is that it's essentially circular reporting of TASS.
In any case, there are some other problems with the way you presented the information. Firstly, asserting that the "Mykolaiv military-civilian administration" was an entity in its own right is controversial. It is controversial to assert that Kherson is a real oblast of Russia. And asserting that both of these things "came after Ukraine" is extremely controversial. From a Ukrainian perspective, the "Mykolaiv military-civilian administration" doesn't even exist, and the Kherson Oblast is an illegal annexation of Ukrainian territory by Russia. Jargo Nautilus (talk) 15:25, 9 October 2022 (UTC)[reply]
As for the claim of Reuters circularly reporting the Tass article, I disagree as the Reuters article was made on 21 September while russia annexed the areas on 30 september and the tass article was published on 3 october. Cryw 9 (talk) 16:01, 9 October 2022 (UTC)[reply]
...Russia's TASS news agency reported on Wednesday. --> This statement is found in the Reuters article. They are probably referring to an older article that was published by TASS. Jargo Nautilus (talk) 16:20, 9 October 2022 (UTC)[reply]
I will point out that the "Mykolaiv military-civilian administration" is not a country. The only reason we're using the country info-box is that we have nothing better for this specific situation (as far as I'm aware). Indeed, for the Donetsk People's Republic and Luhansk People's Republic, I changed the info-box from "country" to "Russian federal subject", specifically in order to prevent people from adding information to the article that would portray the DPR/LPR as an independent country. In the same sense, I am opposed to any notions that the Mykolaiv military-civilian administration is a country (of any kind), and the info-box is really misleading in that sense since all the options are available to portray it as such. The "country A succeeds country B succeeds country C" format is really only supposed to be applied to real countries, not to some vague "occupational forces" entity. Jargo Nautilus (talk) 15:30, 9 October 2022 (UTC)[reply]
A more neutral way to structure this article would be:
  1. Change the info-box to "occupation", and make it the same as what we can see in the article Russian occupation of Kyiv Oblast.
  2. Write somewhere in the lead that Russia originally created the "Mykolaiv military-civilian administration" inside of Mykolaiv Oblast.
  3. After that previous point, mention that Russia has annexed two small pieces of Mykolaiv Oblast into its newly-declared "Kherson Oblast (Russia)".
  4. Mention that the Kherson Oblast (Russia) is unrecognised by Ukraine and by the international community.
  5. Mention that the annexation of two small pieces of Mykolaiv Oblast into Kherson Oblast is unrecognized by Ukraine and by the international community. Jargo Nautilus (talk) 15:37, 9 October 2022 (UTC)[reply]
    The thing about the infobox is however that for the infobox on the russian occupation of Kyiv, its marked like that because there was no actual administration in the area, yet for areas like kherson, kharkiv, zaporizhzhia there are/were pro kremlin administrations in the area while before the russian annexation of kherson and other areas there were administrations like the mykolaiv MCA and they had their own infoboxes. In fact the kharkiv region which has not been annexed by Russia has its own separate infobox for its administration aswell. Cryw 9 (talk) 15:57, 9 October 2022 (UTC)[reply]
    These "military-civilian administrations" should not be characterised as countries. They are simply Russia's tools of occupation, nothing more, nothing less. They aren't "pro-Kremlin administrations". They literally are the Kremlin itself. There's no "pro" about them. They have no agency of their own. Russian-created. Russian-owned. Russian-operated. Jargo Nautilus (talk) 16:07, 9 October 2022 (UTC)[reply]
    Also, the Mykolaiv military-civilian administration only occupied maybe 5% of Mykolaiv Oblast's territory at its peak. So, it is hardly representative of the entire Mykolaiv Oblast. And, according to what I've read in the historical revisions of this Wikipedia article, the entity only existed from August 2022 to September 2022. So, it occupied a tiny piece of territory and only lasted for one month. Does it really deserve its own info-box and its own article? It's no wonder that the Russians decided to dissolve this entity. It is frankly pathetic. By the way, the Russians did actually occupy a larger percentage of Mykolaiv before (maybe as much as 20%), but they lost all of that territory before the military-civilian administration was established, it seems. Jargo Nautilus (talk) 16:12, 9 October 2022 (UTC)[reply]
    While true it did only control a small portion of the oblast, it doesn't really mean it is un notable especially as the articles on the occupations of other oblasts had infoboxes on their own MCA's. Also, jut because the country infobox is being used it doesn't necessarily mean it is being claimed as such. Cryw 9 (talk) 18:32, 9 October 2022 (UTC)[reply]
    The borders of Russia's newly-annexed territories in Ukraine are not well-defined. In that TASS article that you sourced as evidence about Mykolaiv Oblast, the article also said that "the borders of the DPR and LPR have been clearly defined in their constitutions". However, that statement is actually nonsense as far as I can tell, since they haven't actually geographically delimited the borders that they claim. There's no definitive map, so their borders are basically just whatever they feel like. So, I wouldn't call that "clearly defined". It's the same deal with Mykolaiv Oblast. Russia has never clearly defined the territory that it claims in Mykolaiv Oblast by way of some kind of an official map. I would consider the matter final if someone can produce an official Russian map that shows parts of Mykolaiv Oblast as belonging inside of Russia's definition of Kherson Oblast. Jargo Nautilus (talk) 03:53, 10 October 2022 (UTC)[reply]
    AFAIK the DPR and LPR claim all of the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. Cryw 9 (talk) 13:34, 10 October 2022 (UTC)[reply]
    From what I've seen, Vladimir Putin has said that "the borders of the territories are for the people to decide". Russia has not delimited any of the territory that it claims and controls in eastern Ukraine. Jargo Nautilus (talk) 18:32, 10 October 2022 (UTC)[reply]
    As for being claimed as a "country", well, someone has recently changed the info-box to the "settlement" type. This seems to be an improvement. The problem with the "country" info-box is that it's really tempting for people to add information to the info-box that would make the "military-civilian administration" entity look like a country. Jargo Nautilus (talk) 03:53, 10 October 2022 (UTC)[reply]
    Furthermore, I have seen conflicting reports that Snihurivka has been liberated by the Ukrainians. On Wikipedia, the status quo is that Snihurivka is still under Russian control, because there isn't enough evidence yet that it has been liberated. But certainly, this is a really important detail to consider. And, as I've stated in my early comments in this section, it is a completely different matter whether Russia genuinely asserts ownership of a piece of territory or is willing to give it up without a fight. For example, Russia previously claimed a third of Kharkiv Oblast, but then it ran away with its tail between its legs. Same with Lyman in the north of Donetsk Oblast... Russia abandoned that city. And Russia has also abandoned areas in the northwest of Kherson. So, Russia might control Snihurivka now, but whether Russia will actually fight to retain control of Snihurivka is another matter entirely. Jargo Nautilus (talk) 04:10, 10 October 2022 (UTC)[reply]

Annexation situation #2

There's a good reason that I'm skeptical of the Russian annexation of parts of Mykolaiv Oblast, which I mentioned in the section above. All of the annexations in this conflict have occurred in the midst of ongoing warfare. Russia did not fully control any of the oblasts at the time that it annexed them. Originally, Russia was planning to annex the entirety of Kharkiv Oblast and Mykolaiv Oblast, but these plans failed after Kharkiv Oblast was almost completely retaken by Ukraine; meanwhile, Russia never managed to expand its control of Mykolaiv Oblast (after the early stages of the war), with only a small portion remaining under Russian control, connected to Kherson Oblast.

In the annexation that occurred on 30 September 2022, Russia declared that it had annexed four oblasts of Ukraine, namely Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. All of these oblasts have at least 50% of the oblast under Russian control, so they are more "viable", so to speak. However, Mykolaiv Oblast has less than 10% under Russian control, and Kharkiv Oblast has less than 5% under Russian control. Russia never announced that it had annexed these oblasts, although some reports suggest that Russia has annexed the areas of Mykolaiv Oblast under its control (no news about Kharkiv Oblast).

I believe that it is

WP:CRYSTAL
to suggest that Russia has annexed parts of Mykolaiv Oblast. The parts under Russian control are only relatively small, and they are also located along the front line of the war. This area could easily pass back and forth between Russian and Ukrainian control within a matter of weeks, and it seems that Ukraine is currently on the offensive to retake these territories. Could it really be said that Russia has annexed this area if it falls under Ukrainian control within the next few weeks, and especially considering that Russia has no major ambitions in Mykolaiv Oblast anymore? Ultimately, Russia's base of operations in the region is Kherson Oblast, and the small parts of Mykolaiv Oblast are being incorporated into Kherson Oblast out of convenience rather than for a profound reason. If Russia loses this area to Ukraine, it is likely that Russia's next move will be to consolidate the borders of Kherson Oblast, rather than to try and retake the relatively useless parts of Mykolaiv Oblast.

Generally speaking, I believe that the Snihurivka Raion Snihurivka's environs* should be regarded as a "contested area", rather than as a definitively annexed area, because its situation is ephemeral, temporary, and highly unstable (even more so than the situations in the Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts). With that being said, the portion of the Kinburn Peninsula that belongs to Mykolaiv Oblast will probably remain under Russian control until the city of Kherson is liberated, due to the obvious geographic reality of the area; the Kinburn Peninsula is connected to Kherson Oblast by land and separated from the rest of Mykolaiv Oblast by water, so its centre of gravity is naturally in Kherson Oblast, and especially in Kherson City. Jargo Nautilus (talk) 04:24, 22 October 2022 (UTC)[reply]

Well, it seems that Ukraine has retaken Snihurivka. Jargo Nautilus (talk) 17:11, 10 November 2022 (UTC)[reply]

Political status of Snihurivka Raion

*It is also important to point out that Ukraine actually abolished the Snihurivka Raion in 2020. Effectively, the Snihurivka Raion no longer exists, according to Ukraine's definition of its own administrative subdivisions. So, the fact that we are calling this area "Snihurivka Raion" is an indication of the ephemerality of the situation. The area is ill-defined, and using a definition that was abolished by Ukraine 2 years ago is not convincing. Russia has clearly revived this definition out of convenience rather than for a profound reason. Jargo Nautilus (talk) 04:38, 22 October 2022 (UTC)[reply]

I have renamed "Snihurivka Raion" to "Snihurivka's environs" in the article "List of territorial disputes". This refers to both the city of Snihurivka itself and the areas immediately surrounding the city. Jargo Nautilus (talk) 08:55, 22 October 2022 (UTC)[reply]

Update The Map

According to a bbc news article:https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-63576212?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=636d265852314367adffcf26%26Mykolaiv%20region%20completely%20liberated%20-%20Ukrainian%20commander%262022-11-10T17%3A26%3A22.945Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:4d7942fa-c4df-4b9e-abe5-4afaf27531ae&pinned_post_asset_id=636d265852314367adffcf26&pinned_post_type=share looks like that the entire of mykolaiv oblast is free now Lucasoliveira653 (talk) 18:34, 10 November 2022 (UTC)[reply]

If this is true, then lol. Look at the discussions above on this page. I predicted that Snihurivka and the surrounding area would be recaptured by Ukraine, but I didn't expect this to happen so soon. I hope Ukraine takes Kherson soon now that Russia is evacuating the city. Jargo Nautilus (talk) 19:52, 10 November 2022 (UTC)[reply]
Yeah, The counteroffensive suprised me, since it was in a stagnation, until now Lucasoliveira653 (talk) 19:53, 10 November 2022 (UTC)[reply]
Bear in mind that we can't use the above source because it says that the claims can't be verified yet. But they will probably be verified soon. Just have to wait a little bit for better information. Also, there is an error in the above report since it says that "Mykolaiv, the last city being held by Russia in the region, is now under Ukrainian control". It's a bit cryptic to figure out what the report actually means in this sentence (since, reading it as it is, it makes no sense). I think they mean to say that "in Mykolaiv Oblast, the last city that was occupied by Russia has been liberated by Ukraine". There's another detail; Russia actually controlled two areas of Mykolaiv Oblast three weeks ago. In addition to the area surrounding Snihurivka, Russia also controlled the Kinburn Peninsula further south. I can't verify what the status of the Kinburn Peninsula is at the moment. Jargo Nautilus (talk) 20:04, 10 November 2022 (UTC)[reply]
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