Material unaccounted for
Material unaccounted for (MUF), in the context of
MUF is a term used within nuclear material monitoring, the organisational and physical tests used in the monitoring of fissile material and the detection of any impermissible removal.[3] An associated term is limit of error for the material unaccounted for (LEMUF), meaning the associated statistical limits of error possible for the MUF.[4] In a civilian context, MUF is also sometimes referred to as the inventory difference (ID).[5][6]
A 2014 report by the
Definition
The International Atomic Energy Agency define MUF as the "difference between the book inventory and the physical inventory. This definition may be with respect to either the element or isotope weight." A more exact definition is represented by the following equation:
MUF = I - 0 + B - E
where I designates inputs, 0 designates outputs (which are sometimes subdivided into product and waste streams), B refers to beginning inventory, and E to ending inventory. The three terms in (eq. 3.4.1), I, 0, and B, collectively represent the book inventory, while E represents the physical inventory. Note that the physical inventory for one accounting period becomes a part of the book inventory for the subsequent period.
The IAEA also notes that the "definition of MUF implicitly assumes that the material balance is based completely on measured data. The use of by-difference accounting results in a meaningless MUF. For example, if the contents of
History
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Cold War
United States
The Center for Public Integrity (CPI) reported that during the Cold War nuclear weapons production was so frantic that approximately six tons of nuclear material, enough to fuel "hundreds of nuclear explosives", has been declared as MUF by the government. They add that "most of it [is] presumed to have been trapped in factory pipes, filters, and machines, or improperly logged in paperwork."[8] A Defense Nuclear Facilities Safety Board report highlights, “On at least one occasion, in trying to determine the cause of a MUF in excess of 40 kg in 1969, all of the vessels, sumps, and catchbasins were flushed and inspected: total plutonium yield was less than 10% of the MUF."[9]
In 1974, Karen Silkwood, a lab technician at Kerr-McGee, revealed to the Atomic Energy Commission that among many others irregularities, 40 pounds of plutonium was missing from the company's inventory.[11] In 1977, The New York Times reported that 8,000 pounds of HEU and plutonium was unaccounted for across nuclear plants in the U.S.[12]
Soviet Union
Soviet figures are unknown, as, unlike Western producers of plutonium, Soviet Russia did not use the 'MUF' accounting system (or an equivalent) to track its physical inventory of nuclear materials. Instead, it simply relied on the physical security of its plants.[13] However, as stated above, Russian figures are presumed to be as large as the United States counterpart.
Post-Cold War
Worries that weapons-grade nuclear material could perhaps leak onto the black market following the collapse of the Soviet Union at the end of 1991 grabbed headlines at the time. However, several reported deals involving the sale of nuclear material turned out to be hoaxes. Nonetheless, of the approximately 20 known seizures of nuclear weapons materials since the dissolution of the Soviet Union, all have been made in former Soviet states. Thomas Cochran, formerly of the Natural Resources Defense Council stated that "The Russian problem is by far the most serious. People have an incentive to make money. There is clear evidence that stuff is leaking out." The CPI also notes that "although roughly two dozen countries have enough nuclear explosives to make a bomb, Russia's materials have long been the chief Western concern." The main threat about a potential nuclear explosion on Western soil post-cold war, as perceived by the United States, "[has] always been centered around the risk that explosive materials — more than a bomb's mechanical workings — could fall into the wrong hands." In 2005, Porter Goss warned that "There is sufficient material unaccounted for so that it would be possible for those with know-how to construct a nuclear weapon."[13][14]
The CPI also reports that the United States government has spent "$4 billion over the past 25 years to help [Russia] tighten control of the weapons-usable materials inside its vast nuclear complex." In the same report, a US intelligence official alleges that former Russian military and intelligence personnel have been suspects in Nuclear trafficking. However, Russia has dismissed allegations of a leakage of nuclear materials as a smear campaign. Under Vladimir Putin, who first came to power in 1999, Russia has slowly reduced its nuclear security cooperation with the United States, stating that it has no further need of financial or technical assistance from Washington. Michael McFaul states it became a "tertiary issue" under Putin. In his 2007 memoir, George Tenet stated that upon hearing Al-Qaeda were attempting to purchase Russian nuclear devices in 2003, a Department of Energy intelligence official was sent to Moscow seeking information about "reports we had received of missing material," but the Russian government refused to provide details.[15]
In 2018, the CPI also reported that two United States Department of Energy nuclear specialists "drove to San Antonio to pick up nuclear material from a research lab and transport it to an Idaho lab." However, "before they were able to complete the mission, radioactive material that they brought with them to calibrate radiation detectors was stolen from their vehicle while they stayed at a hotel." Over a year later, the CPI found that the nuclear materials in question, plutonium and
Causes
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Charles D. Ferguson writes that the "biggest concern is statistically significant positive MUF values bigger than the LEMUF, because this could indicate diversion, loss, or theft. The inventory difference also has to reconcile losses of uranium and plutonium through radioactive decay and transmutations of an element to a different element in a nuclear reactor or accelerator. Other losses or consumptions of nuclear material occur in nuclear explosives or reactors via fission. The Department of Energy (DOE) has tried to take into account these natural and manmade losses and consumptions in its historical assessment of uranium and plutonium stockpiles."[9]
As stated by the
Residual holdup, which refers to the nuclear material remaining in and around the process equipment and handling areas after operation, is also a problem. The NRC write that "Uranium accumulates in cracks, pores, and zones of poor circulation within and around process equipment. The walls of process vessels and associated plumbing often become coated with uranium during processing of solutions. Uranium also accumulates in air filters and associated ductwork. The absolute amounts of uranium holdup must be small for efficient processing and proper hazards control. However, the total amount of uranium holdup may be significant in the context of the plant MUF."[19]
The typical LEMUF by Western standards allows 3% of production to go missing.
Prevention
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Stringent monitoring of nuclear material stockpiles is common practice amongst the nuclear powers, and can help limit the potential for MUF.
To help prevent residual holdup, defined above, the NRC advises that "When the limit of error of uranium holdup is compatible with the plant LEMUF, the material balance can be computed using the measured contents of uranium holdup. Additional cleanout and recovery for accountability will then not be necessary." However, "when the limit of error of uranium holdup is not compatible with the plant LEMUF, the information obtained in the holdup survey can be used to locate principal uranium accumulations. Once located, substantial accumulations can be recovered, transforming the uranium to a more accurately measurable inventory component. Having reduced the amount of uranium holdup, the limit of error on the remeasurement of the remaining holdup may be sufficiently reduced to be compatible with overall plant LEMUF requirements."[19]
Theft is still taken seriously. Security at nuclear facilities to detect and prevent any impermissible removal of nuclear material is high. The
Diversion of nuclear materials from civil nuclear power to the production of nuclear weapons by non-nuclear weapons states remains a cause of concern. Elaborating on the methods of detection used, the
International and domestic regulations
International
NPT
The
CPPNM
The
Domestic
The following countries are either recognised
United States
The regulations laid out by the United States' Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) require that each licensee maintain an official material control and accounting programme (known as MC&A) that tracks all special nuclear material (SNM) on site. All licensees are required to maintain accounts showing the receipt, inventory, acquisition, transfer, and disposal of all SNM in its possession regardless of its origin or method of acquisition.[28] Physical inventories are inspected yearly. Within 60 days of taking the physical inventory, an SNM Physical Inventory Summary Report must be written, outlining any discrepancies between the physical and book inventory. If discrepancies are found, a further report is required to identify and resolve said discrepancies. This report must be sent within 30 days.[29][30] Additionally, the Office of Nuclear Material Safety and Safeguards (NMSS), a branch of the NRC, is responsible for ensuring that security at nuclear facilities remains satisfactory, as well as providing security for the transport of nuclear material.[31]
United Kingdom
Prior to 1 January 2021, the
Russia
Historically, Russia had no regulations in place pertaining to the monitoring of its nuclear material inventories. Damon Moglen, Director for the Climate and Energy Project stated in 2011 that "The Russians would not know even if there was anything missing." Instead, it simply relied on its physical security to prevent the loss of material.[33][13] However, in 2012 new nuclear security regulations, known as the Federal Rules and Regulations Regarding the Use of Atomic Energy- NP-030-12 - "Basic Nuclear Material Control and Accounting Rules"— were adopted by the Federal Environmental, Industrial, and Nuclear Supervision Service of Russia and made Russian Law.[34] Shortly thereafter, a non-military overseer group was founded to ensure their implementation. Additionally, Russian officials have stated progress has been made in improving training for security guards, installing new barriers at nuclear facilities, and upgrading sensor technology.[35]
A report by the University of Maryland School of Public Policy comments that "Specific improvements in the regulations that are worth noting, include: requiring that each site establish a designated MC&A (material control and accounting) organization; requiring that the book inventory be adjusted on the basis of a physical inventory taking; requiring the application of seals with unique identifiers to the most attractive categories of nuclear materials; and requiring the adoption of a two-person rule when accessing and working with nuclear material in certain situations." However, the same report emphasises that while the regulations do "establish the general requirement that statistical analysis be used at the completion of each physical inventory-taking […] it does not establish specific requirements, goals, or criteria. Several Russian facilities are developing relevant analytical methods, but it will take several years for these methods to be fully developed and tested, for personnel to be trained in using them, and for facilities to acquire the necessary technological capabilities to conduct them."[36]
China
China has placed particular emphasis on nuclear security. The IAEA comment that the "Chinese government has been continuously strengthening and improving its nuclear security capacity. China has kept an excellent record on nuclear security during the past 60 years."[37] Licensees in China are required to implement a strict physical inventory inspection procedure, with inventories required at least once per year. For nuclear materials such as plutonium-239 or uranium-233, inspections are required at least twice per year. For nuclear materials that are inaccessible or cannot be handled due to dangerous levels of radioactivity, inventory inspections rely on operational records and calculations. The National Nuclear Safety Administration is the government agency responsible for enforcing these regulations. China is believed to have been the first to implement a computer-based accounting system in 1996 to monitor its nuclear materials.[17]
In addition, in 2016, China opened the State Nuclear Security Technology Centre (SNSTC), a state-of-the-art facility specialising in the use of technology to improve the security of nuclear material. Zhenhua Xu, the SNSTC's Deputy Director General stated that "Protecting nuclear or other radioactive material from falling into the hands of terrorists is of growing importance in a country like China, which is expanding its nuclear power programme." China cooperates actively with the IAEA to improve nuclear security, both domestically and globally.[38] The Chinese government has recently asserted that "For more than 50 years, China has not lost a single gram or single piece of important nuclear material."[39] Though Reuters contradict this claim.[40]
France
Article 67 of the 1978 agreement between the IAEA and France stipulates that the "Material balance reports shall include the following entries unless otherwise agreed in the Subsidiary Arrangements: (a) Beginning physical inventory; (b) Inventory changes (first increases, then decreases); (c) Ending book inventory; (d) Shipper/receiver differences; (e) Adjusted ending book inventory; (f) Ending physical inventory; and (g) Material unaccounted for." Article 72 allows the IAEA to "verify information on the possible causes of material unaccounted for, shipper/receiver differences and uncertainties in the book inventory." For each inventory change, the date of the inventory change and the originating material balance area and the receiving material balance area or the recipient must be indicated. This agreement became French Law in 1981.[41] The Autorité de sûreté nucléaire (ASN) is responsible for ensuring these regulations are implemented, as well as for overseeing security.[42] The IAEA comment that "The nuclear security regime in France is robust and well-established, and incorporates the fundamental principles of the amended CPPNM."[43]
North Korea
A North Korean official stated in 2004 that the country's annual throughput of spent fuel was 110 tons. There is little information known beyond what North Korea reveals as the country repeatedly refuses international inspectors access to any of its nuclear facilities. An issue facing North Korea is whether the country's frequent power failures allow their nuclear reprocessing facilities to operate continuously, as shutdowns can lead to plutonium losses.[45]
Iran
Iran signed the
Israel
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Israel has a long-standing policy of deliberate ambiguity with regards to its nuclear program, and as such, has not signed the NPT. On 18 September 2009 the General Conference of the IAEA called on Israel to open its nuclear facilities to IAEA inspection and adhere to the NPT as part of a resolution on "Israeli nuclear capabilities," which passed by a narrow margin of 49–45 with 16 abstentions. The chief Israeli delegate stated that "Israel will not co-operate in any matter with this resolution."[55]
India
India has criticised the NPT because it "discriminate[s] against states not possessing nuclear weapons on 1 January 1967," and has said it will only sign the NPT if it is allowed to join as a nuclear-weapons state. But this is seen as unlikely.[56] The Atomic Energy Regulatory Board is the government organisation responsible carrying out certain regulatory and safety functions under India's Atomic Energy Act, 1962. However, India's regulatory structure has been criticised by the Nuclear Threat Initiative for failures in its security and accounting practices. A report from 2014 states that key provisions "on security; and, in some cases, security measures are recommended, but not required. Weaknesses are particularly apparent in the areas of transport security, material control and accounting, and measures to protect against insider threat, such as personnel vetting and mandatory reporting of suspicious behaviour."[57] India did agree in 2005, however, to the India–United States Civil Nuclear Agreement, classifying 14 of its 22 nuclear power plants as being for civilian use and to place them under IAEA safeguards, subject to inspections.[58] Nonetheless, there is little information available from India's government in regards to nuclear matters except at the most general level, especially in regards to non-civilian use. In relation to the size of India's stockpiles of fissile materials (and related MUF figures), unofficial estimates have considerable uncertainties.[59]
Pakistan
Pakistani has not signed the NPT, arguing, like India, that it is discriminatory. Foreign Secretary
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