Nouriel Roubini
Nouriel Roubini | |
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Larry Summers | |
Information at IDEAS / RePEc |
Nouriel Roubini (nicknamed "Dr. Doom"; born March 29 1958) is a Turkish-born Iranian-American economic consultant, economist, speaker and writer. He is a Professor Emeritus since 2021 at the
Roubini earned a BA in political economics at
Early life
Roubini was born in
Career
For much of the 1990s, Roubini taught at
Economic forecasts
Roubini says that his economic analysis approach is "holistic."
Roubini was one of the people, along with among others economists Dean Baker, Fred Harrison, Raghuram Rajan, Stephen Roach, and William White, analyst Meredith Whitney, investment advisers Gary Shilling, Peter Schiff, and Marc Faber, and CFTC chair Brooksley Born who predicted the crash of 2007–08.[17][20][21][22] He said: "I've been studying emerging markets for 20 years, and saw the same signs in the U.S. that I saw in them, which was that we were in a massive credit bubble [as 2008 approached]."[12]
Roubini's predictions earned him the nicknames "Dr. Doom" and "permabear" (economist slang for someone who continually projects downturns) in the media.[2][23] In 2008, Fortune magazine wrote, in an article entitled "Eight Who Saw it Coming . . . and eight who didn't", that in 2005 he had said home prices were "riding a speculative wave that would soon sink the economy. Back then the professor was called a Cassandra. Now he's a sage".[24] The New York Times noted that he foresaw "homeowners defaulting on mortgages, trillions of dollars of mortgage-backed securities unraveling worldwide and the global financial system shuddering to a halt".[2] In September 2006, he warned a skeptical IMF that "the United States was likely to face a once-in-a-lifetime housing bust, an oil shock, sharply declining consumer confidence, and, ultimately, a deep recession". Nobel laureate Paul Krugman added in 2009 that his once "seemingly outlandish" predictions were matched "or even exceeded by reality."[25]
However, financial journalist
In January 2009, Roubini predicted that
Although in May 2010 he predicted a 20% decline in the stock market, the S&P actually rose about 20% over the course of the next year (even excluding returns from dividends).[42] In 2012, Roubini predicted that Greece would be ejected from the Eurozone, but that did not happen.[43] The Financial Times observed that in 2020 when the Covid-19 pandemic arrived, he said that policymakers would not mount a large fiscal response. However -- they did.[44] Also in 2020, he predicted that a US-Iran war was likely.[44]
US economy
In the 1990s, Roubini studied the collapse of
In 2004 he said that an upcoming recession would lead to the crash of the dollar; when a few years later a recession did come, it actually strengthened the dollar.[51] In 2005 after Hurricane Katrina hit the US, Roubini predicted that an economic disaster was imminent; however, the next two years instead saw an increase in financial activity.[51]
In September 2006, he prognosticated the end of the real estate bubble: "When supply increases, prices fall: that's been the trend for 110 years, since 1890. But since 1997, real home prices have increased by about 90 percent. There is no economic fundamental—real income, migration, interest rates, demographics—that can explain this. It means there was a speculative bubble. And now that bubble is bursting." In the Spring 2006 issue of
In his opinion, much of the recession's cause was due to "boom-and-bust cycles," and he felt the US economy needed to find a different growth path in the future. "We've been growing through a period of time of repeated big bubbles," he said. "We've had a model of 'growth' based on
In late July 2009, he warned that if no clear exit strategy were outlined and implemented, there was the potential of a "perfect storm": fiscal deficits, rising bond yields, higher oil prices, weak profits, and a stagnant labor market, which combined could "blow the recovering world economy back into a
Global economy
2006
In the summer of 2006, Roubini wrote that the U.S. was headed into a long and "protracted" recession due to the "collapse" of house prices, which he noted were already in freefall.[58]
With regards to Europe, Roubini predicted that Italy, and possibly a series of other Eurozone countries (Portugal, Spain, Greece) might have to exit the eurozone if they did not implement "serious economic reforms." "[It] is not a foregone conclusion but, if Italy does not reform, an exit from EMU within 5 years is not totally unlikely.... The growth slowdown will make the public deficit and debt worse and potentially unsustainable over time. And if a devaluation cannot be used to reduce real wages, the real exchange rate overvaluation will be undone via a slow and painful process of wage and price deflation."[59]
2009
In 2009 he was named one of the TIME 100, "the annual TIME 100 issue, we do the impossible: name the people who most affect our world."[60]
As of January 2009, he remained pessimistic about the U.S. and global economy. He said in September 2008, "we have a
His pessimism was focused on the short-run rather than the medium or long-run.
At a conference in January 2009 he said the U.S. banking system was "effectively insolvent." He added that the "
In December 2009, as the price of gold exceeded $1,200 an ounce, Roubini said it looked "suspiciously like a bubble."[38] However, by September 2012 gold was trading at $1,700.[38] He still predicted that it was a risky bet, saying that it would take "another Armageddon" to make the price of gold rise again.[38]
2010
In 2010, he again warned that despite an improved economy with rising stock markets, the crisis was not over and new bubbles were on the horizon: "We are just at the next stage. This is where we move from a private to a public debt problem ... We socialised part of the private losses by bailing out financial institutions and providing fiscal stimulus to avoid the great recession from turning into a depression. But rising public debt is never a free lunch, eventually you have to pay for it."[65]
In late May 2010, markets around the world began dropping due partly to problems in Greece and the Eurozone. "Roubini believes Greece will prove to be just the first of a series of countries standing on the brink," wrote the Telegraph.[65] Roubini spoke about the new issues he felt governments must deal with: "We have to start to worry about the solvency of governments. What is happening today in Greece is the tip of the iceberg of rising sovereign debt problems in the eurozone, in the UK, in Japan and in the US. This ... is going to be the next issue in the global financial crisis.[65]
Roubini met officials in China during spring 2009, and said that many Chinese commentators blamed American "overborrowing and excess" for dragging them into a recession. However, he said that "even they realize that the very excess of American demand has created a market for Chinese exports." He added that although Chinese leaders "would love to be less dependent on American customers and hate having so many of their nation's foreign assets tied up in U.S. dollars," they're now "more worried about keeping Chinese exporters in business. ... I don't think even the Chinese authorities have fully internalized the contradictions of their position."[56]
2011-12
Roubini and political scientist
In July 2012, Roubini predicted a global "perfect storm" in 2013, with economies all over the world slowing down or completely halting.[68]
2014-19
By May 2014, Roubini had become bullish, arguing many of the risks to the global economy had receded. He pointed to an improving European economy and stronger euro, steadying of the economy in Japan, and a marked improvement in the United States. He praised the Federal Reserve for its
At the start of 2017, Roubini speculated that the election of Donald Trump as president might portend a geopolitical shift away from globalization and toward isolationism, which he felt could lead to global instability and rising military conflicts among other countries.[70]
Roubini attacked cryptocurrency in remarks to a U.S. Senate Banking Committee in 2018.[71] That year he was a member of the Berggruen Institute's 21st Century Council.[72]
In November 2019, he wrote "Nine Reasons Why the Stock Markets Are Far Too Optimistic".[73]
2020
On February 17, 2020, he warned of financial vulnerabilities that "could trigger severe economic, financial, political, and geopolitical disturbances unlike anything since the 2008 crisis."[74][75] Two days later, the market peaked prior to what would become the 2020 stock market crash. Following a relatively minor decrease, Roubini warned on February 24 that the markets were still too complacent about coronavirus, predicting a government response followed by positive market reaction, which would then fizzle.[76]
Cryptocurrencies
He is a frequent critic of cryptocurrencies. He views blockchain as "the byword for a libertarian ideology that treats all governments, central banks, traditional financial institutions, and real-world currencies as evil concentrations of power that must be destroyed."[77] He regards cryptocurrencies and blockchain as both utopian and at bottom "about greed" on the part of their promoters.[77]
Consulting business
In 2005, he formed Roubini Global Economics, a small economic consultancy for financial analysis.[38] He said, "the world is my home, so everything about society and culture—no matter how miniscule [sic]—is worth knowing. I am an information junkie and created RGE Monitor to collect information about what's happening around the world."[15] Roubini said: "The most important thing in this kind of business is that you have to be right day in and day out. The fact that I made a right call a few years ago doesn't matter."[4] He closed the firm in 2016.[44]
In 2017, he formed Roubini Macro Associates, a global macroeconomic consultancy firm in New York.
He is also Chief Economist for Atlas Capital Team LP, as well as Co-Founder of Rosa & Roubini Associates.
Personal life
He speaks English, Persian, Italian, Hebrew, and conversational French.[3] Roubini likes to refer to himself as a "global nomad", and said, "You can be sitting still surfing the Internet, and experience other worlds, ideas and societies. But I've found that there is nothing better than visiting a different country ...."[15]
Roubini is a US citizen.[3] He is identified as a Democrat in his profile on Wall Street Economists.[78] Roubini announced on Twitter in early 2014 his new practice of Transcendental Meditation.[79] Roubini does not want to have children, and cites various global threats as the basis for his position.[80]
Personal investments
During an interview in June 2009, he was asked about his personal lifestyle expenses and other investments. He said, "I regularly save about 30% of my income. Apart from my mortgage, I don't have any other debts. The credit crunch hasn't affected me much.... I've always lived within my means and, luckily, have never been out of work. I would say I'm a frugal person—I don't have very expensive tastes.... You don't need to spend a lot to enjoy things."[3] Asked whether he invests in stocks, he replied, "Not as much these days. I used to have a lot in equities—about 75%—but over the past three years, I've had about 95% in cash and 5% in equities. You're not getting much from savings these days but earning 0% is better than losing 50%.... I don't believe in picking individual stocks or assets.... Never invest your money as though you are gambling at the casino. Buying and selling individual stocks is a waste of time."[3]
Writings
- 2022: MegaThreats: Ten Dangerous Trends That Imperil Our Future, And How to Survive Them, Little Brown
- 2010: Crisis Economics: A Crash Course in the Future of Finance, Penguin Press
- 2006: (editor with Marc Uzan) New International Financial Architecture, Edward Elgar Publishing[81]
- 2004: (with Brad Setser) Bailouts or Bail-ins? Responding to Financial Crises in Emerging Economies, Peterson Institute[82]
- 1997: (with Alberto Alesina & Gerald D. Cohen) Political Cycles and the Macroeconomy, MIT Press[83]
References
- ISBN 9780521419826.
- ^ a b c d e f g Mihm, Stephen (August 15, 2008). "Dr. Doom". The New York Times. Retrieved 2010-08-23.
- ^ a b c d e Hussain, Ali (June 21, 2009). "Fame and Fortune: Nouriel Roubini". Times Online. Retrieved June 17, 2021.
- ^ a b c d e f Loch Adamson (October 12, 2011). "How Nouriel Roubini Became a Research Brand", Institutional Investor.
- ^ a b c d e Benjamin Kunkel (2009-11-18). "Can Dr. Doom Predict a Recovery?". GQ. Retrieved 2023-03-03.
- ^ Courtney Comstock (December 14, 2009). "Nouriel Roubini Was the Black Sheep in His Family", Business Insider.
- ^ Dafna Maor (2022-04-19). "The Real Threat to Israel, According to Nouriel Roubini". Haaretz. Retrieved 2023-03-03.
- ^ a b David A. Dieterle (2013). Economic Thinkers; A Biographical Encyclopedia.
- ^ "Nouriel Roubini Named Bocconian of the Year". Bocconi University. 29 May 2009. Retrieved 17 June 2021.
- ^ a b c d Julia Ioffe (June 3, 2009). "Prophet Motive", The New Republic.
- ^ ISBN 9780313397479.
- ^ a b Kennedy, Simon (2009-01-30). "Roubini Sees Global Gloom After Davos Vindication". Bloomberg. Retrieved 2011-03-07.
- ^ "A Balance Sheet Approach to Financial Crisis" (PDF). 2002.
- ISBN 9780881325300. Retrieved 2023-03-03.
- ^ a b c "Talking to Nouriel Roubini". Janera. 2007-05-02. Archived from the original on 2011-07-13. Retrieved 2011-03-09.
- ^ "ETGBS 2023: Is global economy heading for a recession or poised to rebound, 'Dr Doom' Roubini answers". The Economic Times. 2023-02-17. Retrieved 2023-03-03.
- ^ a b c d Helaine Olen (March 30, 2009). "The Prime of Mr. Nouriel Roubini", Entrepreneur.
- ^ Peter Mallouk (2021). The 5 Mistakes Every Investor Makes and how to Avoid Them; Getting Investing Right, John Wiley & Sons.
- ^ Stephen Kirchner and Oliver Marc Hartwich (2009-09-10). "Economist with a nose for trouble". The Sydney Morning Telegraph. Retrieved 2023-03-02.
- The Quarterly Journal of Austrian Economics
- ^ George DeMartino. "The Economic Crisis and the Crisis in Economics". eatonak.org.
- ^ Bezemer, Dirk J (16 June 2009). ""No One Saw This Coming": Understanding Financial Crisis Through Accounting Models", MPRA.
- ^ Alice Gomstyn (November 5, 2008). "The Man Who Saw It Coming: Meet Dr. Doom", ABC News.
- ^ Benner, Katie; Tkaczyk, Christopher (August 6, 2008). "8 who saw the crisis coming... and 8 who didn't - The Economist (2)". CNN Money. Fortune. Archived from the original on Mar 6, 2023.
- ^ Krugman, Paul (April 30, 2009). "The 2009 TIME 100: Scientists & Thinkers". Time. Archived from the original on May 3, 2009. Retrieved November 2, 2009.
- ^ Justin Fox (May 26, 2010). "What Exactly is Nouriel Roubini Good For?", Harvard Business Review.
- Little, Brown.
- ^ Thomas I. Palley (2013). From Financial Crisis to Stagnation; The Destruction of Shared Prosperity and the Role of Economics, Cambridge University Press.
- North Bay Business Journal.
- ^ Jayson MacLean (May 6, 2020). "Nouriel Roubini warns of Great Depression just like he did last year (and the year before that)", Cantech Letter.
- ^ "Market gurus:Overrated Dr Roubini flops—again; The media darling has been wrong more often than right", Moneylife, March 10, 2011.
- AZ Central.
- ^ a b Joe Keohane (January 9, 2011). "That guy who called the big one? Don't listen to him." The Boston Globe.
- ^ Tony Robbins, Peter Mallouk (2017). Unshakeable; Your Financial Freedom Playbook, Simon & Schuster.
- ^ Emma Brockes (January 23, 2009). "He told us so", The Guardian.
- ^ Eric Tyson (2018). Personal Finance For Dummies, Wiley.
- ^ Maneet Ahuja (2014). The Alpha Masters; Unlocking the Genius of the World's Top Hedge Funds
- ^ Foreign Policy Magazine.
- ^ Nouriel Roubini (June 16, 2009). "Financial Gain, Economic Pain", Project Syndicate.
- AOL.com.
- ^ a b Alice Guy (January 16, 2023). "Seven times the experts got it very wrong on the economy", Interactive Investor.
- ^ Larry Swedroe (May 20, 2011). "Nouriel Roubini Misses Another Prediction", CBS News.
- ^ "How Roubini got it wrong on a Greece eurozone exit", Financial Post, January 21, 2013.
- ^ The Financial Times.
- ^ Nationalize the Banks! We're all Swedes Now, Matthew Richardson and Nouriel Roubini, Washington Post, February 15, 2009; accessed July 8, 2012
- ^ "Economist Rankings". IDEAS/RePEc.
- ISSN 0015-7228. Archived from the originalon December 2, 2009. Retrieved November 30, 2009.
- ^ "The FP Top 100 Global Thinkers". Archived from the original on 2014-11-07. Retrieved 2017-03-10.
- ^ "The FP Top 100 Global Thinkers". Foreign Policy. 26 November 2012. Archived from the original on 30 November 2012. Retrieved 28 November 2012.
- ^ Mandel, Michael (March 21, 2006). "The Problem With Prediction Registries". Business Week. Retrieved June 17, 2021.
- ^ a b Julia Ioffe (June 3, 2009). "Prophet Motive", The New Republic.
- doi:10.1111/j.1468-2362.2006.00032.x. Archived from the original(Abstract) on 2013-01-05. Retrieved 2021-06-17.
- New York Magazine. Retrieved June 17, 2021.
- ^ Weisenthal, Joe (May 7, 2009). "Nassim Taleb Says Crisis Will Be Vastly Worse Than 30s". Business Insider. Retrieved June 17, 2021.
- ^ "Roubini Says Recession May Continue Until End of 2010". Bloomberg. March 6, 2009.
- ^ a b c d Fallows, James. "Dr. Doom Has Some Good News", The Atlantic magazine, July/August, 2009
- ^ a b "Roubini Sees Risk of 'Double Dip' Global Recession". Bloomberg. July 23, 2009.
- ^ "Recession will be nasty and deep, economist says" Archived 2013-01-29 at archive.today, Wall Street Journal, August 23, 2006
- ^ Roubine, Nouriel. "Italy's Tremonti's Temper Tantrums on EMU in Davos ... a Sad Embarrassing Episode for Italy ..." EconoMonitor. Retrieved 11 November 2011.
- ISSN 0040-781X. Retrieved 2024-04-22.
- ^ "Bailout: No cure for recession", CNN Money, Sept. 24, 2008
- ^ a b Roubini, Nouriel. Warning: More Doom Ahead Foreign Policy, January/February, 2009
- ^ "Roubini Predicts U.S. Losses May Reach $3.6 Trillion" Archived 2009-01-22 at the Wayback Machine Bloomberg News, January 20, 2009
- ^ "Roubini Sees More Economic Gloom Ahead", Time, March 3, 2009
- ^ a b c Sibun, Jonathan (2010-05-23). "Nouriel Roubini said the bubble would burst and it did. So what next?". The Daily Telegraph. Retrieved 2011-03-07.
- ^ Roubini, Nouriel, and Bremmer, Ian. "A G-Zero World", Foreign Affairs, March/April 2011
- ^ Bennington, Ash. "Nouriel Roubini on the Origins of the G-Zero World" Archived 2015-09-24 at the Wayback Machine, CNBC", March 14, 2011
- ^ Edward Krudy (July 17, 2012)."Roubini sticks to 2013 'perfect storm' prediction", Reuters.
- ^ "Former Dr Doom becomes optimistic". The US News. Retrieved May 18, 2014.
- ^ Roubini, Nouriel. "'America First' and Global Conflict Next", Project Syndicate, Jan. 2, 2017
- ^ "Roubini Senate Blockchain Testimony" (PDF). banking.senate.gov.
- ^ "Berggruen Institute". Archived from the original on 13 June 2018. Retrieved 5 January 2017.
- ^ Roubini, Nouriel. "Nine Reasons why the Stock Markets Are Far Too Optimistic". NYU.
- ^ Roubini, Nouriel. "The White Swans of 2020". NYU.
- ^ Roubini, Nouriel (17 February 2020). "The White Swans of 2020". Project Syndicate.
- ^ Roubini, Nouriel. "Markets Are Too Complacent About Coronavirus Despite Sell-Off". NYU.
- ^ a b "Renowned Economist Nouriel Roubini Discusses The Fate Of Cryptocurrencies And Blockchain". London Speaker Bureau. 13 March 2019. Retrieved June 30, 2022.
- ^ " Wall Street Economists: A Research Project on Economic Predictions - Nouriel Roubini Profile". Archived from the original on 2015-08-13. Retrieved 2015-08-15.
- ^ Friar, Karen (2014-01-22). "'Dr. Om' or 'Dr. Doom'? Roubini gets meditative in Davos". MarketWatch blogs. Archived from the original on 2014-01-22.
- The Financial Times.
- OCLC 61479639.
- ISBN 978-0-88132-371-9.
- ISBN 978-0-262-51094-3.
External links
- Official Website
- Nouriel Roubini on Twitter
- Nouriel Roubini at Stern School of Business, New York University
- Column archive at Project Syndicate
- Roubini and Ian Bremmer discuss outlook for 2013 Reuters TV, January 14, 2013, video, 1 hr. and 11 min.
- "Nouriel Roubini". JSTOR.