Ceasefire
By Thomas Nast in Harper's Weekly, February 17, 1877, p. 132.
A ceasefire (also known as a truce or armistice
Ceasefires may be declared as part of a formal treaty, but also as part of an informal understanding between opposing forces.[2] They may occur via mediation or otherwise as part of a peace process or be imposed by United Nations Security Council resolutions via Chapter VII of the United Nations Charter.[2]
The immediate goal of a ceasefire is to stop violence, but the underlying purposes of ceasefires vary. Ceasefires may be intended to meet short-term limited needs (such as providing humanitarian aid), manage a conflict to make it less devastating, or advance efforts to peacefully resolve a dispute.[1] An actor may not always intend for a ceasefire to advance the peaceful resolution of a conflict, but instead give the actor an upper hand in the conflict (for example, by re-arming and repositioning forces or attacking an unsuspecting adversary), which creates bargaining problems that may make ceasefires less likely to be implemented and less likely to be durable if implemented.[3][1][5]
The durability of ceasefire agreements is affected by several factors, such as demilitarized zones, withdrawal of troops and third-party guarantees and monitoring (e.g. peacekeeping). Ceasefire agreements are more likely to be durable when they reduce incentives to attack, reduce uncertainty about the adversary's intentions, and when mechanisms are put in place to prevent accidents from spiraling into conflict.[3]
Overview
Ceasefire agreements are more likely to be reached when the costs of conflict are high and when the actors in a conflict have lower audience costs.[6] Scholars emphasize that war termination is more likely to occur when actors have more information about each other, when actors can make credible commitments, and when the domestic political situation makes it possible for leaders to make war termination agreements without incurring domestic punishment.[7]
By one estimate, there were at least 2202 ceasefires across 66 countries in 109 civil conflicts over the period 1989–2020.[1]
Historical examples
Historically, the concept of a ceasefire existed at least by the time of the Middle Ages, when it was known as a 'truce of God'.[8]
World War I
During World War I, on December 24, 1914, there was an unofficial ceasefire on the Western Front as France, the United Kingdom, and Germany observed Christmas. There are accounts that claimed the unofficial ceasefire took place throughout the week leading to Christmas, and that British and German troops exchanged seasonal greetings and songs between their trenches.[9] The ceasefire was brief but spontaneous. Beginning when German soldiers lit Christmas trees, it quickly spread up and down the Western Front.[10] One account described the development in the following words:
It was good to see the human spirit prevailed amongst all sides at the front, the sharing and fraternity. All was well until the higher echelons of command got to hear about the effect of the ceasefire, whereby their wrath ensured a return to hostilities.[11]
There was no peace treaty signed during the Christmas truce, and the war resumed after a few days.
Karachi Agreement
The Karachi Agreement of 1949 was signed by the military representatives of India and Pakistan, supervised by the
Korean War
On November 29, 1952, the US
Vietnam War
On New Years Day, 1968, Pope Paul VI convinced South Vietnam and the United States to declare a 24-hour-truce. However, the Viet Cong and North Vietnam did not adhere to the truce, and ambushed the 2nd Battalion, Republic of Vietnam Marine Division, 10 minutes after midnight in Mỹ Tho. The Viet Cong would also attack a U.S. Army fire support base near Saigon, causing more casualties.[16]
On January 15, 1973, US President
Gulf War
After
Kashmir conflict
A UN-mediated ceasefire was agreed between
Northern Ireland
The Irish Republican Army held several Christmas ceasefires (usually referred to as truces) during the Northern Ireland conflict.[20][21]
Israeli–Palestinian conflict
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An example of a ceasefire in the
Syrian Civil War
Several attempts have been made to broker ceasefires in the
2020 global ceasefire
The 2020 global ceasefire was a response to a formal appeal by United Nations Secretary-General António Manuel de Oliveira Guterres on March 23 for a global ceasefire as part of the United Nations' response to the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic. On 24 June 2020, 170 UN Member States and Observers signed a non-binding statement in support of the appeal, rising to 172 on 25 June 2020, and on 1 July 2020, the UN Security Council passed a resolution demanding a general and immediate global cessation of hostilities for at least 90 days.[27][28]
See also
- 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh ceasefire agreement
- Armistice
- Demilitarized zone
- Olympic Truce
- Korean Armistice Agreement
- Peacemaking
- Peace process
- Peace treaty
References
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- ^ "How the War in Ukraine Might End". The New Yorker. 2022-09-29.
- S2CID 147435735.
- ISBN 9781610971126.
- ^ Brockell, Gillian (December 24, 2017). "The Christmas Truce miracle: Soldiers put down their guns to sing carols and drink wine". Washington Post. Retrieved 2018-08-27.
- ISBN 9781409445739.
- ISBN 978-1-897643-31-0.
- ^ "Document for July 27th: Armistice Agreement for the Restoration of the South Korean State". Archived from the original on 19 October 2012. Retrieved 13 December 2012.
- ^ "Korean War Armistice Agreement". FindLaw. Canada and United States: Thomson Reuters. 27 July 1953. Archived from the original on 5 March 2014. Retrieved 5 March 2014.
- ISBN 978-1-4094-7798-3.
- OCLC 53929433.
- ^ "BBC News | Saddam's Iraq: Key events". news.bbc.co.uk. Archived from the original on 2003-12-17. Retrieved 2020-08-01.
- ISBN 978-1860648984
- ^ "India declares ceasefire in Kashmir - Global Village Space". Global Village Space. 2018-05-17. Retrieved 2018-05-18.
- ^ "I.R.A. Provisionals Announce a Christmas Truce". The New York Times. 21 December 1974.
- ^ "IRA Declares Usual Christmas Truce". Los Angeles Times. 24 December 1993.
- ^ Wedeman, Ben; Raz, Guy; Koppel, Andrea (2005-02-07). "Mideast cease-fire expected Tuesday". CNN. Archived from the original on 2005-02-08. Retrieved 2007-01-03.
- ^ Federman, Jeffrey, Josef, Jack (21 November 2023). "Qatar announces Israel-Hamas truce-for-hostages deal that would pause Gaza fighting, bring more aid". AP News. Associated Press. Retrieved 22 November 2023.
{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link) - S2CID 156447200.
- S2CID 149165856.
- .
- ^ "S/RES/2532(2020) - E - S/RES/2532(2020)". undocs.org. Retrieved 2020-08-01.
- ^ "Stalled Security Council resolution adopted, backing UN's global humanitarian ceasefire call". UN News. 2020-07-01. Retrieved 2020-08-01.
Further reading
- Clayton Govinda, Nygård Håvard Mokleiv, Strand Håvard, Rustad Siri Aas, Wiehler Claudia, Sagård Tora, Landsverk Peder, Ryland Reidun, Sticher Valerie, Wink Emma, Bara Corrine. 2022. “Introducing the Civil Conflict Ceasefire Dataset.” Journal of Conflict Resolution.
- Akebo, Malin. (2016). Ceasefire Agreements and Peace Processes: A Comparative Study. Routledge.
- Colletta, Nat. (2011). "Mediating ceasefires and cessations of hostilities agreements in the framework of peace processes." In Peacemaking: From Practice to Theory. Praeger, 135–147.
- Forster, Robert A. (2019). Ceasefires. In The Palgrave Encyclopedia of Global Security Studies. Palgrave.
- Fortna, Virginia Page. (2004). Peace Time: Cease-fire Agreements and the Durability of Peace. Princeton University Press.
- Williams, R., Gustafson, D., Gent, S., & Crescenzi, M. (2021). "A latent variable approach to measuring and explaining peace agreement strength." Political Science Research and Methods, 9(1), 89–105.
