Victory disease

Victory disease occurs in military history when complacency or arrogance, brought on by a victory or a series of victories, makes an engagement end disastrously for a commander and his forces.^[1]

A commander may disdain the enemy, and believe his own invincibility, leading his troops to disaster. That commander may employ

that would enable the commander to realize that new tactics are needed.

Though "victory disease" does not inevitably foretell defeat, it often precedes it. The term is also applied outside the military world in areas such as psychology, business, or marketing.

Origin

The examples and perspective in this section deal primarily with Japan and do not represent a worldwide view of the subject. You may improve this section, discuss the issue on the talk page, or create a new section, as appropriate. (April 2019) (Learn how and when to remove this message)

The origin of the term (戦勝病, senshoubyou, in

Much of Japan's arrogance is attributed to the performance of Admiral Matome Ugaki. From overriding decisions to ignoring the evolving conflict in the Pacific, Ugaki's tactics incited tension and doubt in other Japanese military personnel before the Midway operation.^[5]

Although the Japanese had planned to establish a perimeter and go on the defensive, victories encouraged them to continue expanding to an extent that strained logistics and the navy. This culminated in the Battle of Midway in 1942, a catastrophic defeat of the Japanese navy. All four Japanese aircraft carriers involved were sunk, and the hitherto unstoppable Japanese advance was blunted.^{[citation needed]}

History

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Pre-modern

• The
  Xerxes I led to a catastrophic defeat of the Achaemenid Empire in the Battle of Salamis, which occurred in 480 BC. This was the turning point of the Greco-Persian Wars and the ancient Greeks, who the Persians were opposing, eventually won. The ancient Greek playwright Aeschylus fought in the battle; he wrote the play The Persians
  in which the Battle of Salamis is a setting.
• In 1415, at the Battle of Agincourt, the English were outnumbered between three and five to one, but the disorganization of French knights, as well as superb quality longbows, were the underlying circumstances which led to the English overcoming the odds and annihilating the French.^[6]
• The overconfidence and lack of preparation led to the disastrous defeat of the English, led by
  Edward II at the Battle of Bannockburn to the Scots, led by Robert the Bruce
  .
• The Spanish naval assault on England in 1588 suffered the defeat of the Spanish Armada. Similarly, English overconfidence the following year led to the disaster of the English Armada.

19th century

• The calamitous decision by
  invade Russia in 1812 led to the return of only 10,000 French soldiers
  when 610,000 had initially been sent out. Napoleon's repeated victories in Central Europe led him to believe that Russia would surrender after a few won battles, and made no plans for a sustained campaign or occupation in Russia.
• The first six weeks of the
  Italian unification, enter a war with Prussia believing that their weapons and tactics would easily defeat the Prussians. However, the Prussians had better tactics and this led to catastrophic French defeats at Sedan and Metz
  .
• United States victories against Mexico and
  Minie ball
  as ammunition, they assumed that superior numbers would give them rapid victories, and ignored plans for an extended war until after repeated defeats.
• Confederate decisions made at and before their loss at the Battle of Gettysburg, after their outnumbered-five-to-two victory at the Battle of Chancellorsville and previous battles before then in the Eastern Theater of the American Civil War.
• Captain and Brevet Lt. Col.
  Lakota, Northern Cheyenne, and Arapaho. It was possibly the worst army defeat on the Great Plains
  until eclipsed by the disaster at Little Bighorn ten years later.
• The 1876
  Battle of Washita River, Custer ignored contrary intelligence
  or did not seek it out.
• In the 1879
  Cetshwayo kaMpande
  . Instead, the British, who used sensible tactics and concentrated their firepower as much as possible, won the battle and killed 351 confirmed Zulu men, with another 500 wounded.

• The battles of
  Serbian Campaign
  .
• The Battle of Pingxingguan during the Second Sino-Japanese War between Japan and China. After a series of easy victories against their opponents, the overconfident Japanese failed to take elementary precautions.
• Italy's entry in WW2 (1940) followed a series of victories in Libya (1922-1932), Ethiopia (1935-1936), Spain (1936-1939), and Albania (1939), which gave the Fascist regime the illusion of being able to win a global war against Britain.^[7]
• The catastrophic decision by
  Russian winter or rasputitsa (mud season
  ). As a result, the German offensive in the Soviet Union was halted on December 5, 1941.
• Japan's decision to attack Pearl Harbor on December 7, 1941. This followed wins in the
  US Pacific Fleet
  damaged to a relatively superficial degree, with its carrier groups out at sea while vital shore base facilities were ignored in the attack such as its fuel storage, whose destruction could have crippled fleet operations for months by itself. More significantly, with the corresponding Japanese diplomatic communication being too slow to process and present to the American government until after the attack began, the attack, intended in part to demoralize the Americans, provoked instead an infuriated retaliation that would ultimately defeat Japan.
• Gamal Abdel Nasser, President of Egypt, believed that during the Suez Crisis, the Egyptian Armed forces had defeated the combined forces of Israel, the United Kingdom and France, when in reality it was the pressure from the United States which was the decisive factor. This gave Nasser an inflated view of the strength of his forces, so when the Six Day War started, he believed that Egypt would be able to defend itself against Israel's advance. However, this overconfidence, as well as false "victory" reports which brought Jordan and Syria into the war, proved to be its downfall as Israel managed to defeat the Arab forces and conquered their territory as well.^[8][9]

See also

• Communal reinforcement
• Confirmation bias
• Groupthink
• List of military disasters
• Narcissism
• Pyrrhic victory

References