Horizon scanning

Source: Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia.
For other uses, see Horizon scanning (disambiguation).
For other uses of "HS", see HS (disambiguation).
Futures studies
Concepts
Techniques
Technology assessment and forecasting

Horizon scanning (HS) or horizon scan is a method from futures studies, sometimes regarded as a part of foresight.[1] It is the early detection and assessment of emerging technologies or threats for mainly policy makers in a domain of choice.[2][3][4] Such domains include agriculture,[5] environmental studies,[6] health care,[7] biosecurity,[2] and food safety.[8]

Some sources mention HS as an alternative name for

environmental scanning (ES),[9] or view HS as a subset of ES,[10] or at least suggest ES to have a similar goal to HS.[11] In summary, ES has key differences to HS.[12] ES is rather concerned to provide industry specific information for short-term decision making in a competitive environment.[13][14][15]

Etymology

One of the first usages of the term horizon scanning as related to futures studies appeared in 1995 in a paper discussing trends in information technology and forecasting the year 2005.[16] Then, horizon scanning was used to name detection and early evaluation of health care technologies in a European workshop in September 1997, whose participants were 27 policy makers and researchers from 12 countries.[7] This workshop was organized as a part of the European health technology assessment project (HTA).[7] Policy makers and planners of health services were the main target groups for knowledge produced by horizon scanning.[7]

Definitions of Horizon Scanning
Year Source Definition
2002 Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs

Horizon scanning is "the systematic examination of potential threats, opportunities and likely future developments which are at the margins of current thinking and planning’ and, continuing, horizon scanning ‘may explore novel and unexpected issues, as well as persistent problems or trends."[17]

2004 UK Government's Chief Scientific Advisor's Committee "Horizon scanning is the systematic examination of potential threats, opportunities and likely future developments including – but not restricted to – those that are at the margins of current thinking and planning. Horizon scanning may explore novel and unexpected issues, as well as persistent problems or trends."[18]
2015 Report by
Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI, Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research and VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland for the European Commission
 "Horizon Scanning is the systematic outlook to detect early signs of potentially important developments. These can be weak (or early) signals, trends, wild cards or other developments, persistent problems, risks and threats, including matters at the margins of current thinking that challenge past assumptions."[19]
2019 OECD

Horizon scanning is "a technique for detecting early signs of potentially important developments through a systematic examination of potential threats and opportunities, with emphasis on new technology and its effects on the issue at hand."[20]

Phases and techniques

A 2013 systematic study of 23 formally established health technology HS programs from different countries identified following common phases in a horizon scanning process:[21]

  • Identify the users of the HS products.
  • Estimate the time available for the HS effort.
  • Conduct HS, and identify emerging technologies that potentially affect targeted domain.
  • Filter the identified technologies by applying criteria for determining the relevance of the technologies to the HS effort.
  • Prioritize the technologies that have passed through the filtering process by applying criteria based on stakeholders’ requirements and needs.
  • Assess technologies of high priority for the stakeholders, and predict their potential impacts targeted domain.
  • Use peer review to check for quality of the HS process and products.
  • Disseminate the HS products to the relevant audiences in a timely fashion.
  • Update the HS products on a regular basis or when a significant development occurs related to the technology.

Horizon scanning shares common methods with future-oriented technology analysis.[22][23] Horizon scanning includes following techniques:[6][21]

Technique Example
Interviews Environmental Research Funders Forum Horizon Scanning Study[24]
Issue tree Foresight project on Brain Science, Addiction and Drugs[25]
Literature searches and state-of-science reviews Medical Technology Horizon Scanning[26]
Expert workshops Horizon scan of conservation issues in UK.[27] Assessment of 100 ecological questions of highest priority to global conservation.[28]
Open fora Future Wiki[29]
Delphi questionnaire 50 key issues for the future of Mediterranean wetlands[30]
Trend analysis HSTOOL – semiautomatic discovery of scientific trends from clusters of publications[31]
Scenarios[32] Wildlife Conservation Societies’ Futures of the Wild[33]
Systems/Maps Foresight project on Tackling Obesities: Future Choices[34]
Backcasting

Governmental bodies

European Union

European commission developed the Transport Research and Innovation Monitoring and Information System (TRIMIS) in 2017, an open-access transport information system supporting the implementation of the seven Strategic Transport Research and Innovation Agenda (STRIA) roadmaps.[35] In 2021, a horizon scanning module was added to TRIMIS.[36] This horizon scanning framework developed by Joint Research Centre
within TRIMIS uses news media, scientific publication sources, patent data sources, EU funding datasets and other sources as basis for text mining.

Joint Research Centre's "Tool for Innovation Monitoring" augments horizon scanning with text mining of available literature.[37] This tool is developed in 2020. Among the used data sources are Scopus, PATSTAT and Cordis.

Germany

Umweltbundesamt applies horizon scanning since 2012 along with trend analysis.[38]

Russia

In the Russian Federation, horizon scanning is performed by

Putin
stated that "[a] Foresight exercise for Russia’s science and technology towards 2030 is due to be completed. It highlights specific ways to both revitalize traditional sectors and penetrate into new high-tech markets…". Russian horizon scanning team consisted of 15–20 members and conducted an online survey of 2000 experts.

Sweden

bibliometric numbers. The clustering is performed using Gibbs sampling Dirichlet multinomial mixture model algorithm. The citation statistics are provided derived from Thomson Reuters' Web of Science
.

UK

In order to centralize horizon scanning, UK has founded the English Horizon Scanning Centre (HSC) in 2005.[41] The Cabinet Office's Horizon Scanning Secretariat and the Government Office for Science's Horizon Scanning Centre were combined to the Horizon Scanning Programme team in 2014.[42]

USA

In 2010, The Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ) established the first publicly funded Healthcare Horizon Scanning program of the US.[43]

See also

References

  1. ISSN 2573-5152
    .
  2. ^ a b "Continuity Central". www.continuitycentral.com. Retrieved 25 February 2021.
  3. PMID 24332318
    .
  4. PMID 26113499
    .
  5. ISBN 978-92-76-21446-5
    .
  6. ^
    PMID 19660827
    .
  7. ^
    S2CID 1184587
    .
  8. ^ "Horizon Scanning and Foresight: An overview of approaches and possible applications in Food Safety" (PDF). FAO. Retrieved 25 February 2021.
  9. ISSN 1463-6689
    .
  10. doi:10.1108/14636681211284953
    .
  11. ISSN 0302-3427
    .
  12. ISSN 0040-1625
    .
  13. ISBN 978-1-57387-125-9
    .
  14. ISSN 1463-6689
    .
  15. doi:10.1016/j.lrp.2014.09.002
    .
  16. ISSN 0275-6668
    .
  17. hdl:11475/8386
    .
  18. doi:10.1108/14636681211269851
    .
  19. ^ "Models of Horizon Scanning How to integrate Horizon Scanning into European Research and Innovation Policies" (PDF). Fraunhofer ISI. 2015. Retrieved 26 February 2021.
  20. ^ National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (2020-01-14). HORIZON SCANNING AND FORESIGHT METHODS. National Academies Press (US). Retrieved 22 June 2021.{{cite book}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)
  21. ^ a b Sun, F; Schoelles, K (2013). AHRQ Health Care Horizon Scanning System A Systematic Review of Methods for Health Care Technology Horizon Scanning (PDF).
  22. ISSN 0016-3287
    .
  23. SSRN 4151745. {{cite journal}}: Cite journal requires |journal= (help
    )
  24. ^ "An Environment Research Funders' Forum Report: Horizon Scanning Study". ERA Visions. 2007. Retrieved 7 March 2021.
  25. ^ "Brain science, addiction and drugs". GOV.UK. 2005. Retrieved 7 March 2021.
  26. ^ Brown, I.; Smale, A.; Verma, A.; Momandwall, S. (December 2004). "Medical Technology Horizon Scanning". Australasian Physical & Engineering Sciences in Medicine. 27 (4): 294–295. Retrieved 3 June 2021.
  27. ISSN 1365-2664
    .
  28. ISSN 1365-2664
    .
  29. ^ "Futura Wikia". Retrieved 7 March 2021.
  30. PMID 33776560
    .
  31. S2CID 207977849
    . Retrieved 20 May 2021.
  32. ISSN 1463-6689
    . Retrieved 16 May 2021.
  33. ^ Futures of the Wild: A Project of the Wildlife Conservation Society Futures Group. Wildife Conservation Society Futures Group and Bio-Era. 2007.
  34. ^ "Reducing obesity: future choices". GOV.UK. 2007. Retrieved 7 March 2021.
  35. ISBN 9789279773570. Retrieved 23 January 2022. {{cite book}}: |website= ignored (help
    )
  36. ISSN 2590-1982
    .
  37. ISBN 978-92-76-21446-5.{{cite book}}: CS1 maint: location missing publisher (link
    )
  38. ^ Lehmphul, Karin (24 May 2016). "Horizon Scanning / Trendanalyse". Umweltbundesamt (in German).
  39. S2CID 212853499
    . Retrieved 12 October 2021.
  40. foi.se
    . Retrieved 20 May 2021.
  41. doi:10.1108/14636681211284953
    .
  42. ^ "Horizon Scanning Programme team". GOV.UK. Retrieved 26 February 2021.
  43. ^ "Horizon Scanning: Identifying and Estimating Future Impact of Emerging Innovations on US Health Care" (PDF). www.ispor.org. Retrieved 26 February 2021.
Retrieved from "https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Horizon_scanning&oldid=1188557222"