2002 Arizona gubernatorial election
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Turnout | 56.33%[1] | ||||||||||||||||||||
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County results Napolitano: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% Salmon: 40–50% 50–60% | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Elections in Arizona |
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The 2002 Arizona gubernatorial election took place on November 5, 2002. Incumbent Republican Governor Jane Dee Hull was term-limited. The Democratic nominee, Arizona Attorney General Janet Napolitano, narrowly defeated Republican Matt Salmon, a former U.S. Representative. Upon her inauguration, Napolitano became the first woman to succeed another woman as Governor of a state. Until 2022, this was the last gubernatorial election in Arizona in which the margin of victory was single digits.
Republican primary
Candidates
- Betsey Bayless, Secretary of State of Arizona
- Matt Salmon, former U.S. Representative
- Carol Springer, State Treasurer of Arizona
Declined to run
- Dan Quayle, former Vice President and Indiana Senator[2]
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Matt Salmon | 174,055 | 56.0 | |
Republican | Betsey Bayless | 92,473 | 29.8 | |
Republican | Carol Springer | 44,333 | 14.3 | |
Republican | Write-ins | 24 | 0.0 | |
Total votes | 310,861 | 100.0 |
Democratic primary
Candidates
- Alfredo Gutierrez, State Senator
- Attorney General of Arizonaand former U.S. Attorney
- Mike Newcomb, physician
- Mark Osterloh, perennial candidate
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Janet Napolitano | 128,702 | 57.2 | |
Democratic | Alfredo Gutierrez | 50,377 | 22.4 | |
Democratic | Mark Osterloh | 31,422 | 14.0 | |
Democratic | Mike Newcomb | 14,373 | 6.4 | |
Total votes | 224,874 | 100.0 |
Libertarian primary
Candidates
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Libertarian | Barry Hess | 1,414 | 51.0 | |
Libertarian | Gary Fallon | 1,358 | 49.0 | |
Total votes | 2,772 | 100.0 |
General election
Debates
- Complete video of debate, October 30, 2002
Predictions
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[4]
|
Tossup | October 31, 2002 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[5]
|
Lean D (flip) | November 4, 2002 |
Polling
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Janet Napolitano (D) |
Matt Salmon (R) |
Richard Mahoney (I) |
Barry Hess (L) |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SurveyUSA | October 29–31, 2002 | 661 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 43% | 41% | 11% | 3% | 1% |
Results
The election was extremely close: Napolitano won by just 11,819 votes out of 1,226,111 cast, the closest gubernatorial election in Arizona in many years. Napolitano also won without carrying Maricopa County. Under Arizonan law, the losing candidate may request a recount, for which that candidate must pay, if the margin of victory is less than one percent but greater than half of one percent. In 2002, the margin of victory in 2002 was 1.0%, barely allowing a recount.
It soon became apparent that Napolitano had won the election and would be the next
On November 20,
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Janet Napolitano | 566,284 | 46.2% | +10.7% | |
Republican | Matt Salmon | 554,465 | 45.2% | -15.7% | |
Independent
|
Richard D. Mahoney
|
84,947 | 6.9% | N/A | |
Libertarian | Barry Hess
|
20,356 | 1.7% | -1.0% | |
Write-in | 59 | 0.0% | N/A | ||
Majority | 11,819 | 1.0% | -24.5% | ||
Turnout | 1,226,111 | 55.0 | +10.0 | ||
Democratic gain from Republican | Swing |
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
- Gila (Largest city: Payson)
- Greenlee (Largest city: Clifton)
- Navajo (Largest city: Show Low)
- Coconino (largest municipality: Flagstaff)
- Pima (largest municipality: Tucson)
- Pinal (Largest city: San Tan Valley)
- Santa Cruz (largest municipality: Nogales)
Notes
- ^ Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear
References
- ^ "Voter Registration Statistics | Arizona Secretary of State". Retrieved May 7, 2023.
- ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved January 15, 2021.
- ^ a b c "Primary" (PDF). Azsos. Archived from the original (PDF) on October 26, 2004.
- ^ "Governor Updated October 31, 2002 | The Cook Political Report". The Cook Political Report. October 31, 2002. Archived from the original on December 8, 2002. Retrieved September 18, 2018.
- ^ "Governors Races". www.centerforpolitics.org. November 4, 2002. Archived from the original on December 12, 2002. Retrieved September 18, 2018.
- ^ "General" (PDF). Azsos. Archived from the original (PDF) on October 26, 2004.