David Spiegelhalter
Sir David Spiegelhalter OBE FRS | |
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Born | David John Spiegelhalter 16 August 1953 , Devon, England |
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Scientific career | |
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Thesis | Adaptive inference using finite mixture models (1978) |
Doctoral advisor | Adrian Smith[2] |
Website | www |
Sir David John Spiegelhalter
He is currently Chair of the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication in the Centre for Mathematical Sciences at Cambridge.[7] On 27 May 2020 he joined the board of the UK Statistics Authority as a non-executive director for a period of three years,[8] a term which was extended through to 2026.[9]
Early life and education
Spiegelhalter was born on 16 August 1953.
Career
Spiegelhalter was research assistant in
From 1981 he was at the Medical Research Council Biostatistics Unit at Cambridge. He has been an honorary lecturer at the
Between 2007 and 2012 he divided his work
In 2012, Spiegelhalter hosted the BBC Four documentary Tails You Win: The Science of Chance which described the application of probability in everyday life.[20] He also presented a 2013 Cambridge Science Festival talk, How to Spot a Shabby Statistic at the Babbage Lecture Theatre in Cambridge.[5][21]
He was elected as President of the Royal Statistical Society, and took up the position on 1 January 2017. His Presidential address later that year took as its subject Trust in Numbers.[22]
In March 2020 Spiegelhalter launched a podcast called Risky Talk where he interviews experts in risk and evidence communication on topics like genetics, nutrition, climate change and immigration.[23] He appeared on BBC Desert Island Discs on 6 February 2022.[24]
Research
Spiegelhalter's research interests are in statistics[1][25][26] including
- Bayesian approach to clinical trials, expert systems and complex modelling and epidemiology.[27]
- frequentist probability did not lend itself to expert systems, Bayesian probability most certainly did.[28]
- prior distributions. WinBUGS and its successor OpenBUGS specifies graphical models using acyclic directed graphs whose nodes are random variables, which are updated using Gibbs sampling (an updating method for Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation).[30] Earlier Bayesian software had required that the probability distribution for the observed data be an exponential family and that the prior be its conjugate distribution. Allowing flexible choices of prior distributions simplified hierarchical modelling and helped to promote multilevel models, which became widely used in epidemiology and education.
- General issues in clinical trials,[31]including cluster randomisation, meta-analysis and ethical monitoring.
- Monitoring and comparing clinical and public-health outcomes and their associated publication as performance indicators.
- Public understanding of risk,[32][33] including promoting concepts such as the micromort (a one in a million chance of death) and microlife (a 30-minute reduction of life expectancy). Media reporting of statistics,[34] risk and probability and the wider conception of uncertainty as going beyond what is measured to model uncertainty, the unknown and the unmeasurable.
Honours
- 1975 Fellow, Royal Statistical Society
- 1985 Guy Medal in Bronze, Royal Statistical Society
- 1990 Award for Outstanding Statistical Application, American Statistical Association[35]
- 1993 Chartered Statistician, Royal Statistical Society[dubious ]
- 1994 Guy Medal in Silver, Royal Statistical Society
- 1994 Honorary Doctorate, Aalborg University, Denmark
- 2005 Elected a Fellow of the Royal Society (FRS)
- 2006 Appointed Officer of the Order of the British Empire (OBE) in the Queen's Birthday Honours for services to medical research[36]
- 2006 Appointed Honorary Professor of Biostatistics at University of Cambridge
- 2009 Weldon Memorial Prize and Medal[37]
- 2010 Honorary Doctorate of Science, Plymouth University
- 2013 Honorary Doctorate of Science, Bath University[38]
- 2013 Honorary Doctorate from Heriot-Watt University[39]
- 2014 Knighted in the 2014 Birthday Honours for services to statistics[40][41]
- 2020 Guy Medal in Gold, Royal Statistical Society[42]
- 2020 Michael Faraday Prize of the Royal Society
- 2023 Honorary Doctorate of Laws, Dundee University[43]
Media appearances
- Horizon– To Infinity and Beyond (10 February 2010)
- The Joy of Stats (7 December 2010)
- What is One Degree? (10 January 2011) – Interviewed by Ben Miller
- Winter Wipeout - BBC One (17 December 2011)
- Tails You Win: The Science of Chance (18 October 2012)
- Horizon– Should I Eat Meat? The Big Health Dilemma (18 August 2014)
- Through the Wormhole with Morgan Freeman (2014)
- Climate Change by Numbers (2 March 2015)
- Panorama– Why Are Gambling Machines Addictive? (12 September 2016)
- The 80,000 Hours Podcast – (21 June – 2017)
- Social Science Bites – (2 April 2018)
- The Infinite Monkey Cage: 100th Episode TV Special – (13 July 2018)
- Risky Talk; host of Risky Talk the podcast (5 February 2020 – ongoing)
- Scientists in the Spotlight with Jim Al-Khalili. BBC Sounds (15 Dec 2020)
- Desert Island Discs, BBC Radio 4 (11 February 2022)
Bibliography
- Sex by Numbers: What Statistics Can Tell Us About Sexual Behaviour (2015, Wellcome Collection)
- The Art of Statistics: Learning from Data (2019, Pelican)
- Covid by Numbers: Making Sense of the Pandemic with Data (2021, Pelican) (with Dr Anthony Masters)
- The Art of Uncertainty: Living with Chance, Ignorance, Risk and Luck (2024, Pelican)
References
- ^ a b c David Spiegelhalter publications indexed by Google Scholar
- ^ a b David Spiegelhalter at the Mathematics Genealogy Project
- ^ "Churchill College: Fellows: List of current Fellows". Archived from the original on 18 February 2012. Retrieved 14 September 2011.
- ^ David Spiegelhalter's publications indexed by the Scopus bibliographic database. (subscription required)
- ^ IMDb
- ^ "David Spiegelhalter's Personal Home Page". Retrieved 6 January 2022.
- OCLC 1250202258.)
{{cite book}}
: CS1 maint: location missing publisher (link - ^ "Appointment of two new Non-Executive Directors to the UK Statistics Authority Board". Retrieved 27 May 2020.
- ^ "UK Statistics Authority welcomes three new non-executive directors".
- ^ "SPIEGELHALTER, Prof. David John". Who's Who. Vol. 2015 (online Oxford University Press ed.). A & C Black. (Subscription or UK public library membership required.)
- ^ Keeble, Andy (18 June 2014). "Barnstaple old boy knighted in Queen's Birthday honours". North Devon Gazette.
- ^ Who's Who 2021. Oxford University Press. 1 December 2020. Retrieved 29 August 2021.
- ^ a b c d "CURRICULUM VITAE – David John SPIEGELHALTER" (PDF). Understanding Uncertainty. Retrieved 10 May 2019.
- ^ Spiegelhalter, David (1978). Adaptive inference using finite mixture models (PhD thesis). University College London.
- ^ "Programme transcript". BBC News. 2 April 2006.
- ^ Spiegelhalter, David (October 2009). "Don's Diary" (PDF). CAM. Cambridge University Alumni Association. p. 3. Archived from the original (PDF) on 3 March 2016. Retrieved 21 October 2014.
- ^ "MRC Biostatistics Unit: People". Archived from the original on 3 September 2011. Retrieved 15 September 2011.
- ^ "Welcome to the MRC Biostatistics Unit". Archived from the original on 13 January 2012. Retrieved 25 April 2012.
- ^ "David John Spiegelhalter". Mathematics Genealogy Project. Retrieved 2 September 2019.
- ^ BBC Four – Tails You Win: The Science of Chance
- ^ What's On » Cambridge Science Festival – How to spot a shabby statistic
- .
- ^ Risky Talk website. Accessed 30 December 2022.
- ^ "Desert Island Discs – Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter, statistician – BBC Sounds". www.bbc.co.uk. Retrieved 11 February 2022.
- Microsoft Academic
- ^ David J. Spiegelhalter at DBLP Bibliography Server
- .
- JSTOR 2345762.
- ISBN 978-0-412-05551-5.
- ^ Spiegelhalter, David; Thomas, Andrew; Best, Nicky; Lunn, Dave (January 2003), WinBUGS User Manual (Version 1.4 ed.), Robinson Way, Cambridge CB2 2SR, UK: MRC Biostatistics Unit, Institute of Public Health, PDF document, archived from the original on 3 March 2012, retrieved 27 February 2012
{{citation}}
: CS1 maint: location (link) - S2CID 38751711.
- S2CID 1223740.
- ^ "David Spiegelhalter's blog | Understanding Uncertainty". Retrieved 15 September 2011.
- S2CID 72065012.
- ^ Outstanding Statistical Application Award, ASA, retrieved 31 March 2014.
- ^ UK list: "No. 58014". The London Gazette (1st supplement). 17 June 2006. p. 13.
- ^ "Weldon Memorial Prize and Medal – International Statistical Institute". Archived from the original on 14 August 2011. Retrieved 15 September 2011.
- ^ "Honorary graduates, 2010 to 2019".
- ^ "David Spiegelhalter's Personal Home Page". www.statslab.cam.ac.uk. Archived from the original on 1 January 2018. Retrieved 29 March 2016.
- ^ "No. 60895". The London Gazette (Supplement). 14 June 2014. p. b2.
- ^ Gallagher, James (14 June 2014). "Prof Colin Blakemore: Medical research defender knighted". BBC News.
- ^ "Announcing our honours recipients for 2020".
- ^ "Honorary Degrees | University of Dundee, UK".